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Hugo Boss says Middle East conflict has not yet affected its profits, despite exceeding estimates.
The German fashion group Hugo Boss announced a better-than expected annual operating profit on Tuesday, despite a difficult market environment. It also said that it has not yet felt the impact of the Middle East conflict. The company's earnings before interest and tax (EBIT), which were 391 million euro ($455million) in 2025, are up from 361 millions euros a year ago, and well above the average analyst forecast of 379million euros, according to a poll conducted by the company. Early trading saw a 4% rise in shares of the company. The stock has risen 1.3% from the beginning of the year, including today's session. This is the best day for the stock since July 2025. Hugo Boss has confirmed that it will be releasing its 2026 full-year forecast in December of last year. In a recent statement, Chief Executive Officer Daniel Grieder stated that "2025 highlighted once again the rapid transformation of our industry, shaped largely by technological innovation, evolving consumer preferences, and continued macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties." Grieder said that 2026 would be the year for the company to realign its brand and channels, which will have a temporary impact on top-line and bottom-line growth. Hugo Boss introduced a new brand strategy in December of last year. The goal was to?strengthen the brand through improving stores, focusing its attention on categories with high growth, such as shoes and accessories, while also developing womenswear. Luxury groups have been hit by tighter consumer spending and a'slowing in demand for fashion and accessories, particularly in the U.S. Risks due to SURGING OIL Prices Grieder, when asked about the conflict in?Middle East's impact on the company, told reporters the company had not yet seen any. He said, "If they do, we will adapt our business according to the new circumstances." The escalating Middle East conflict has sent global markets into a tailspin and significantly dampened investor's economic optimism. Investors are worried that the conflict could cause an oil price spike, which would increase inflation and delay interest rate reductions.
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Gabon's indecisive push for IMF loans leads to regional return to Fund
After a coup and a controversial election, Gabon has had four different finance ministers in the last three years. It is now turning to the International Monetary Fund for help to 'put its fiscal house back in order. The Central African OPEC member's financial stability could be improved by its push for an IMF Loan, which is a requirement to unlock investor cash and international funding. This will likely also have significant consequences for its cash-strapped neighbours in the region. Investors and rating agencies may view the IMF program as 'crucial', but concerns over Gabon's transparency in debt and its willingness to implement tough reforms has led to skepticism. Jose Mantero is a sovereign analyst with Fitch Ratings. "A number of significant obstacles remain including the government's aggressive fiscal policy and the possibility of radical, unpopular reforms which would be politically challenging under the current conditions." The Fund concluded a 10-day trip to Gabon on Friday. It was its first visit since the government announced it wanted an IMF Loan after toying around with the idea for more than a year. The IMF concluded the visit by saying that talks will continue and adding that prudent policies are critical to safeguarding stability in Gabon as well as the wider region. The first time since a number of nations in Central African Economic and Monetary Community, (CEMAC), signaled that they would also seek IMF assistance. This was due to a regional funding crisis which has left nations with low ratings with few financing options. GABON'S DISCREET RECORD AND DATA CONCERNS COMPLICATE IMF PUSH Gabon's economy has been impacted by years of political instabilities, resulting in a financial crunch. Reserves have also decreased. The Finance Ministry said that the IMF visit was part of the government's desire to improve transparency, budget rigidity, and sustainability of public finance. The government still has not made a formal request for a new program to the IMF. Gabon may have to face a difficult time attracting the Fund due to its inconsistent track record and concerns about transparency. The IMF says that its last programme, a three-year facility which was approved in 2021, "veered off track" only a year after. Open Data Inventory, a non-profit organization that assesses the transparency of official statistics in a country, places Gabon at 171st place out of 198. The lack of data is the biggest challenge facing Gabon, said Carmen Altenkirch. She is an emerging markets sovereign analyst with Aviva Investors. It is difficult to determine how much fiscal adjustment Gabon will need, such as spending cuts, revenue increase, or both. "We are still concerned about the size of the fiscal expenditure in 2025 and the level of the public debt," said Yvette Baby, a William Blair portfolio manager. Babb says that because of the fog, it is unlikely that a deal will be reached until later in the year. The data available is worrying. Fitch Ratings warned last year that a large fiscal deficit in 2026's budget would make it difficult to obtain an IMF loan. GABON PRESSED TO CLEAN UP IT'S ACT, REGION UNDER STRIKE The efforts of Gabon to get back in the good graces of IMF matters beyond its borders. Civil unrest erupted in Cameroon last year, the largest economy of the CEMAC bloc, after a controversial election gave 93-year old President Paul Biya his eighth term. The region is plagued by security issues, including the Chad, Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea. Fitch Ratings stated that Gabon has a "increasingly relied on the CEMAC Market" for borrowing. However, the serious liquidity crisis in the region will make it difficult to find new funding. Daniel Lebetkin is the Africa Debt Finance Director at Citi. The international markets are also costly for Gabon, and other CEMAC nations like Republic of Congo. Both have debt ratios above the critical threshold of 70% of GDP. In November, Republic of Congo raised 670 million dollars in a private placing priced at a reoffer rate of 13.7%. This is above what many analysts consider sustainable. Cameroon, and the Republic of Congo, regularly ask investors to provide financing through private placements. Thys Louw, a Portfolio Manager with Ninety One's emerging markets fixed income group, confirmed this. He said that the only way to save the region was for everyone to be on IMF programs. Oil producers benefit from recent oil price spikes. The war in the Middle East is to blame for this. Investors said that despite the lack of funding options, debt repayments are looming and this is putting pressure on Gabon. Babb, William Blair's advisor on Africa, said: "It is a game changer because there are regional pressures on the government of (Gabon) to comply and do what it says."
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Australia's Lynas revamps a deal to supply rare Earths to Japan
Australia's Lynas Rare ?Earths has revamped its supply agreement with ?Japan Australia Rare Earths, securing a firm annual commitment ?for 5,000 tonnes of ?neodymium-praseodymium, a key ?rare-earth magnet ?material. Japan Australia Rare Earths has committed to buying half of Lynas' total heavy rare Earth production. JARE, a joint venture between the state-run Japan Organization?for Metals and Energy Security and Sojitz Corp., has provided Lynas A$200,000,000?in order to increase production of heavy and light rare earth materials. CEO Amanda Lacaze said the deal would provide Japan's industry with "reliable" supplies of rare earth products. The agreement keeps Lynas’ total capacity of up to 7,200 tonne per year until 2038. However, it locks in the $110 per kilogram price floor for a 5,000 tonne commitment. JARE? gets 30% of any increase in price above $150 per kilogram, capped at $10,000,000 per year. Lynas said in a press release that "Sales over this minimum volume are subject to a'mutual agreement' and will not result in any loss of opportunity for the company." The magnets that are made of rare earths are used in a small but 'critical amount across a wide range of devices, from iPhones and washing machines to F-35 aircraft, and power everything, from EVs and military systems, to EVs. The deal is a good one, as it comes at a time that Washington has been trying to secure "critical minerals" and reduce its reliance on China which produces 90% of rare earth magnets in the world. (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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Aluminum prices fall as Trump's Iran War remarks cool supply fears
Aluminum prices fell on 'Tuesday as profit-taking impacted the market. Donald Trump's promise to end a Middle East conflict quickly eased supply concerns. After hitting its highest level since January 30, at 25,860 Yuan per metric tonne, the most traded aluminium contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has pared earlier losses and closed daytime trade at 24,835 Yuan ($3,611.42). The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London?Metal Exchange dropped 0.78% at $3,359 a ton as of 0744 GMT. On Monday, the contract reached its highest level since March 2022. It was $3,544 per ton. Trump said on Monday that he expected a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict and warned that he would escalate his war against Iran if Tehran attempted to block oil shipments in the region. The drop in (aluminum) prices was mainly caused by Trump's announcement to end the conflict, said a Chinese businessman under condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to media. The U.S. and Israel war against Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This disrupted shipments from Gulf countries that account for around 9 percent of global aluminum supply. Supply fears arose, and prices soared over the last week. Analysts at ING said that despite the fact that aluminum is one of most vulnerable metals in a region where prices are susceptible to a new upward trend, it remains vulnerable to any further supply shock. SHFE copper gained 1.66% amid falling imported in the first two months of the year. Nickel climbed by 0.72%. Tin rose by 3.83%. Zinc added?0.31%. Lead fell 0.51%. $1 = 6.8768 Chinese yuan $1 = 6.8768 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and RashmiAich).
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India's ESG and returns attract global investors
According to fund managers who spoke at the Indian Venture and Alternate Capital Association's conclave held in Mumbai, India has a'maturing market where foreign investors who consider environmental, social and government (ESG) issues are confident about dedicating more of their portfolio. They cite India’s size, the improving outlook for returns and the advancement of ESG standards as the key differentiators. Since 2010, India's SEBI, the market regulator, has expanded the scope of ESG-related regulations. The detailed Business and Sustainability Reports are now mandatory for India's top 1,000 listed companies. Ralph Keitel of responsAbility Investment in Zurich, who spoke at the conclave, said that "India has clearly earned its space" when it comes to allocations by global investors. Keitel stated that "Fifteen or?20 years back, India was a great place, but the returns were slower." He also sees the case for India as being stronger in the near future. Investors said that the appeal of the country is based on its relative strength at a moment when global allocations across China, United States and other emerging markets are being reassessed. According to the International Monetary Fund, India's economy will grow by 6.5% during fiscal years 2024-25 as well as 2025-26. Neha Grover is the South Asia Lead for Private Equity for IFC. She said that ESG impact - having a positive impact on communities - adds value. Grover said that India is one of the best emerging markets for exits. This is supported by a growing IPO pipeline. Keitel, from ResponsAbility Investments, also mentioned climate-related business opportunities as an area of'special interest'. He cited sectors like solar panels and mobility. He added that as incomes increase, environmental pressures intensify. (Writing by Urvi Dugar and Abinaya Vijayaraghavan in Bengaluru; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar)
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Hot metal production and demand from China are increasing.
Iron ore futures reversed previous losses on Tuesday. This was due to a?anticipated increase in hot metal production as construction activity resumes?in China and spurs demand for feedstock. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange traded 0.26% higher, at 784 Yuan ($113.95). As of 0715 GMT, the benchmark April iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 0.76% at $103.85 per ton. After March 11, the government will lift production restrictions for the duration of the annual parliamentary session, which is expected to lead to an increase in demand for steelmaking raw materials. Steel demand typically increases in March, as construction resumes amid warmer temperatures. Customs data released on Tuesday showed that China's imports of iron ore grew by 10% in the first two month of 2026, compared to a year earlier. This was due to a stronger export from Australia, whose major supplier, and boosted domestic demand. During the same time period, hot metal production increased by 1.2% compared to a year ago, while steel exports decreased by 8.1%. According to Mysteel, the amount of iron ore that arrived at 47 Chinese ports increased between?March 2-8. Due to disruptions on the 'Strait of Hormuz,' iron ore destined for Middle East is being diverted to China. Iron ore shipments to Australia and Brazil, two of the world's largest iron ore producers, also declined week-on-week between March 2-8. This could limit further price declines. Coking coal and coke, two other steelmaking ingredients, also lost ground on the DCE. A report by Guoyuan?Research stated that coking coal and coke closely follow energy prices and have therefore risen and fell in tandem with crude oil. Steel benchmarks at the 'Shanghai Futures Exchange' mostly fell. Rebar fell 0.42%, while hot-rolled coils retreated by 0.18%. Wire rod also dropped 1.91%. Meanwhile, stainless steel grew by 0.82%.
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Mike Dolan explains how oil shocks and financial stress are often mutually reinforcing.
The central banks are watching the Iran oil shock with hawk-like eyes. Even if the main concern is inflation, it is not the only one. The worst case scenario for top policymakers would be that the crude price spike proves to be a breaking point in multiple financial stress fractures. Already, the central banks are being challenged by the surge in oil prices due to supply disruptions caused by more than a week of "war" in the Middle East. It's an age-old debate whether oil price spikes, which raise inflation and inflation expectations, ultimately hurt household and business finances to the point that they lower demand and prices. Then there is 'the toxic scenario, where they both do this. This leaves policymakers in a dilemma of whether to prioritise 'taming inflation? or supporting consumers and jobs. Hawks argue that if you act quickly to reduce prices, the impact on demand will be lessened. This is especially true for central banks where maintaining price stability is their main or sole goal. Others propose "looking through" volatile prices, similar to what central banks did after the pandemic, but with hindsight. All of this is based on a blizzard "ifs" - how the policy was set up before the shock. It also includes the possibility of government subsidies, energy price caps and the length of the conflict. These uncertainties may lead you to wait and watch events and the markets for a while before making any conclusions. There's also another factor that most central banks consider, and it is called financial stability. BOND MARKET TERMITES Senior officials are concerned that the mega-macro disruptions in energy, inflation rates, currencies, and interest rates could expose some of the trends and excesses they have been watching in financial markets. Some people are worried about the possibility of a perfect hurricane. Watchdogs are aware of many issues, but four in particular stand out. They usually involve "shadow banks", which are outside the traditional banking system. Asset managers are lending directly to businesses through private credit funds, which now exceed $3 trillion in value. What happens in these vehicles when a shock occurs is still unnerving to many, even without the public spotlight of traditional bank lending or bond market pricing. Regulators are concerned that the lack of transparency may cause investors to rush out of these funds. This could have ripple effects on borrowers, and ultimately for banks, who still finance or manage most of these vehicles. The rising percentage of government debt financed by hedge funds is a source of concern. Since years, there has been growing concern about their activities in the vital securities repurchase markets, also known as repo markets, and in today's massive U.S. government bonds arbitrage trades that exploit small differences between futures and cash pricing. These players can smooth out government funding, but they also expose the economy to significant shocks. In January, the G20 Financial Stability Board focused on repos, and warned of the possible impact to sovereign bonds of a sudden deleveraging from cash borrowers. The Financial Stability Board also highlighted the risks of a counterparty risk that was not adequately priced, with no haircuts often on sovereign bonds used for repos. Last year, more than $16 trillion of repo backed with government bonds were outstanding. About 60% of this was in America. The accumulation of stablecoins, which are crypto tokens that are pegged to dollars or other currencies by using "assets held in reserve", and the fact that they have become major holders of sovereign bonds is also a cause for concern. The $300 billion market is set to grow further. Any disruption to this ecosystem, or run on tokens could cause a unwinding of the assets and bonds backing them. Meanwhile, they could rob banks out of their deposits. It's also worth mentioning the long-standing concern of savers and investors about?the highly concentrated and overvalued artificial intelligence universe. What impact might the Middle East war have on all these fragile states? The behaviour of regional oil wealth and sovereign funds is one obvious example. Another is a traditional rush for dollar cash over paper or physical assets. The two main ways would be an increase in equity volatility and a change in interest rates due to a rise in energy prices. In the last week, we have seen the rumbles of this second scenario with the?increase in government borrowing rates as well as the jolts that central banks felt when they adjusted their interest rate horizons. The disturbance is not yet at destabilising levels. Since this type of financial stability has become a part of the remit of all central bankers, one wonders how they would cope with an event of this magnitude. Another question is whether these financial risks could work against a strong and decisive response by the central bank to any inflation threat. The Ukraine invasion and its inflation and interest rate shocks did not cause too many problems, at least after a couple of years with poor asset returns. However, there was the 2023 U.S. regional banking shakeout. There are no two shocks alike, but triple-digit oil prices and the pressure to act by central banks are not likely to go unnoticed. The opinions expressed are those of the columnist, author. This column is a great read! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Leading British horses have a stellar start to the Cheltenham Festival
The New Lion, Lulamba and other horses will compete for a piece of the $6.70 million prize pool at the opening of the Cheltenham Festival on Tuesday. The festival, which attracts 200,000 racegoers over four days, is estimated to be worth 274 million pounds to the local economy, boosting local hotels, restaurants and pubs. William Hill predicts that 450 million pounds of bets will be placed in Britain. Guinness will be sold by the gallon at a price of 30 pence less. For those who are at the core of the sport it's all about the horses, and if this year's crop can rival the Irish. The golden age of British jump racing, when Paul Nicholls of Somerset and his horses such as dual Gold Cup-winner?Kauto Star or 18-times successive hurdle winners Big Buck's dominated the field, is now almost 20 years old. Willie Mullins has continued to dominate since then. His team of 113 winners have earned him the title of leading trainer 12 times. This year's team is no less dangerous, backed by wealthy owners such as former Barclays executive Rich Ricci or businessman J.P. McManus. Mullins pick for the?most prestigious jump race is Gaelic Warrior, who appears set to be favourite in Friday's Gold Cup feature. This race has eluded owner Susannah Ricci so far. Majborough, the favourite in Wednesday's Queen Mother Champion chase is Mullins' pick for jump racing's?most prestigious race. Skelton, Ben Pauling and Grey Dawning will be taking on Mullins in the 625,000 pound Gold Cup along with Harry Redknapp's King George VI Chase champion The Jukebox Man. The battle lines will be drawn first in the opening race of Tuesday's Grade 1 Supreme Novices' Hurdle when Mullins' Mighty Park faces British hope Old Park Star, a three-time winner and 2/1 favourite, trained by Henderson. Henderson has not hidden the fact that a Seven Barrows win on Tuesday will be a huge boost to the team, and set a positive tone for the rest of the week after Constitution Hill was ruled out. Henderson also runs the highly-anticipated Lulamba for the Arkle Novices Chase and Jangobaie for the Gold Cup. BULLISH BRITISH If Britain also won Tuesday's main race, the?450,000-pound Champion Hurdle, in which Mullins prolific mare Lossiemouth battles with Skelton’s The New Lion in a two-horse contest, Irish nerves could start to jangle. Skelton is sending his biggest team ever to Cheltenham. He has lined up 30-35 horses. Skelton is confident about some of the biggest British winners but he said his chances to win the top trainer award at the festival were "a possibility...not a probability." "I thought about it, because I am a competitive bugger. But the reality is that Willie will lead trainer,"? he said to the Racing Post Sunday. "With some luck, we could be behind him with a few other trainers." Ireland has been the winner of the Cheltenham Prestbury Cup, which is awarded to the nation with the most champions, in nine out of the last ten years. Cheltenham’s opening day is also important for British racing. It's in the spotlight because of governance issues with its regulator and recent moves made by gaming companies to cut sponsorship due to higher taxes. Cheltenham also wants to recover from the lower ticket sales of recent years. CEO Guy Lavender has tried to remedy this by lowering Guinness prices to 2022 levels, reducing restrictions in drinking areas, and reintroducing Ladies Day every Wednesday. Lavender said that "there is no doubt" that all businesses in the leisure sector are working harder to differentiate their products and services from those of competitors. The British racing industry continues to offer a great day out, and last year we saw the total attendance at all 60 racecourses surpass 5 million for the first time in 2019. Lavender said he is "very optimistic" about the ticket sales, which are up from last year. He said, "We're definitely going in the right directions."
Oil prices plunge as Trump and Iran trade barbs, while Asian stocks rise
In Asian trading, Tuesday, after U.S. president Donald Trump said the Middle East conflict could "end soon," stocks rallied and oil prices plummeted.
The Iranian military's defiant declarations that it would fight on were enough to dash hopes for a quick resolution.
In a choppy trading environment, MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 2.8% and pared losses since the beginning of the war.
Brent crude futures dropped as much as 11 percent to below $88.05 a barrel when trading resumed before reducing their decline to 6.6%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, after a Monday rebound.
Trump's remarks brought a burst optimism, which contrasted with the events in Iran. Hardliners rallied around the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khmenei, and the Revolutionary Guards announced that a blockade on oil exports would continue until U.S. attacks and Israeli attacks ended.
On Monday, the global markets were thrown into turmoil by conflicting signals: initially, oil prices spiked while stocks fell on Wall Street before rebounding after Trump's remarks?and new reports that Washington might soften sanctions against Russian energy.
Tony?Sycamore is a market analyst with IG in Sydney.
"However, the taming down of Trump's rhetoric from demanding total surrender to declaring that the mission is'very completed' is a welcomed development and should help to settle nerves at least for today's Asian session."
ASIAN STOCK MARKETS REBOUND
After Monday's decline, investor confidence has risen amid signs that retail investors are taking more risks. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.7% while South Korea's Kospi soared up to 6.6%, before paring back gains. After futures increased by more than 5% the Korea Exchange halted programme trading for 5 minutes.
China's CSI 300 index rose by 1.1%, after data from customs showed that exports grew faster in January and February. This keeps the second largest economy in the world on track to surpass its $1.2 trillion record trade surplus.
Iran's military warned that it would increase its missile attacks as a further show of defiance.
Trump stated in a Truth Social post that if Iran did anything to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz they would be hit TWENTY times harder than they had been so far.
U.S. Treasury Bonds recovered after the Monday spike in oil prices caused an inflation fear and fuelled expectations of central banks in Europe tightening policy later this year.
Analysts from BlackRock Investment Institute wrote: "Market pricing suggests weeks of disruptions and not days or even months." Market pricing suggests that a stagflationary event is possible, but not certain.
According to CME Group's FedWatch, traders are betting on when the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates. The first cut is not expected until July.
Analysts from ING stated that bond yields are still at "troubling levels". Expect nominal yields to drop for a while on a reverse trade. In a note to clients, they warned: "Don't expect bonds to rally dramatically structurally." Remember, we have to overcome clear 'inflation' impulses, and that the economy may be down, but it is not out.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major peers, was flat on Tuesday, after a drop that reversed all its gains from the previous week on Monday.
Gold rose 0.8% to $5,177.96 and remained within its trading range of the previous week. Cryptocurrencies remained in the same range as they have been since February 1.
Bitcoin increased 1.4%, to $69,976.73, and ether rose 0.9%, to $2,043.86. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Shri Navaratnam, and Jamie Freed).
(source: Reuters)