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How much will the price of ROI-LNG drop by 2026? Russell

The market for liquefied gas is preparing itself for an increase in supply, mostly from the top exporter, the United States. However, it is not clear how low the spot price will need to fall to clear these additional volumes.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, the global supply of super-chilled gasoline is forecast to reach 475 million metric tonnes in 2026. This represents a 10.2% increase over the 431 millions tons predicted for 2025.

This figure is comparable to South Korea's total annual demand, which is the third largest LNG importer in the world behind China and Japan.

Go Katayama, Kpler's principal LNG expert, told a Sydney seminar on Thursday that the U.S. will increase its capacity to 130 million tonnes next year.

The increase is from 90 millions tons in 2024 to 110 million expected this year.

Kpler predicts that Asian benchmark spot prices will fall by 5%. In 2026, the average price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu), which was $12 in 2025, will be $10.

This doesn't sound too bearish. However, within a price forecast average for a year there can be a lot of movement from week to week.

The price of a mmBtu will likely remain around $11.10 during the winter season in the north, but if the weather is colder than usual, the price could rise.

The spot price is expected to start in 2026 at a level well above the average $10 forecast for the entire year. This gives it the potential to fall throughout the year.

The second half of the year 2026 will see a large portion of the 44 million ton new LNG supply.

It is likely that the spot price will fall in the second half of the year as the market struggles with the additional supply.

Who Buys?

It is important to ask who will buy new LNG. Much of it is not contracted and therefore available for spot transaction.

Kpler expects that China's LNG imports will rise from 8 million to 75 millions tons in 2026, despite the weak demand for residential and trucking.

India and Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Philippines are also potential hotspots for LNG demand.

These countries are largely price-sensitive and would need to see a significant drop in the price of mmBtu below $8 to be compelled to buy large volumes.

Europe's LNG consumption may increase, as it continues to move away from Russian pipeline gas. However, growth could be modest as renewables take a greater share in the region's energy mix.

It is not clear if the additional LNG supply that will hit the market in 2026 can drive the price down to $8, but an even larger wave in 2027 may be sufficient to cause a significant drop in prices.

Qatar, the country that is second only to Australia in terms of LNG production, has been working to increase its output to 126 millions tons by 2027.

QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi stated last week that the Middle East producer was on track to begin new production at its massive North Field in the fourth quarter of this year.

The LNG market will soon reach a point where the supply growth is outpacing demand growth.

The market is now predicting that spot prices will continue to fall, which in turn will boost demand for Asian products.

Prices will need to stay low to sustain any increase in demand, which is likely to limit future investment in LNG capacity.

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These are the views of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)