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Administrators say that Australia's sole manganese smelter will close.
Administrators announced on Thursday that Australia's sole manganese smelter in Tasmania, the Liberty Bell Bay Smelter will close immediately after a failed sale. The former British billionaire Sanjeev Gupta owned the smelter. It was placed under voluntary administration by March, after it had ceased operations in mid-last. In a'statement, EY stated that "in the absence of a commercially viable?transaction and the required funding to continue operations, the Administrators made the difficult decision to begin the orderly closure?of the?business with immediate effect." GFG did NOT immediately respond to a comment request. The smelter had been experiencing a period in which it was having difficulty supplying ore due to problems caused by cyclones and setbacks experienced at its key supplier Groote Eylandt Mining Company, South32. Tim Ayres, Minister of Industry, said that despite the federal and state governments' support, including A$10m ($6.99m) in wages and a A$20m?startup package and a continuation of a 10 year concessional power contract?struck last year with GFG Group, a serious buyer could not be found.
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Nuclear fuel company Standard Nuclear raises 150 million dollars in US IPO
Standard Nuclear announced on Wednesday that it has raised $150m in its U.S. initial public offering, after cutting its offer size by more than half. Investors remained cautious over 'valuations. The Oak Ridge, Tennessee nuclear fuel company, which sold 10,000,000 shares at $15 per share, valued it at about $2.41 Billion. The shares will begin trading at the New York Stock Exchange under "STDN" on July 16. Originally, the company had planned to sell 18.25 million shares between $18 and $21 per share. The IPO market is gaining momentum despite the geopolitical uncertainties, as the resilient equity markets are encouraging companies to go ahead with their listing plans. Investors continue to examine valuations. Nuclear-sector 'companies listed recently' have struggled to hold onto their debut gains. X-Energy, Deep Fission and other reactor developers are trading below their IPO price. Companies in this sector will benefit from the U.S. Government's push to expand the nuclear power industry. The goal is to quadruple the country's capacity of nuclear power by 2050 to meet the rising demand for electricity from AI-driven data centres, electric vehicles, and cryptocurrency. Standard Nuclear is a producer of nuclear fuels for advanced 'nuclear reactors. This includes small modular reactors as well as microreactors. The company focuses on scaling up domestic capacity. After the offering, Thomas Hendrix's?Class B shares will give him 60.8% of voting power in the company. Standard Nuclear intends to use the IPO proceeds for working capital, corporate purposes, and possible acquisitions - or investments in complementary businesses, technologie, or assets. Underwriters of the offering include Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and UBS Investment Bank.
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Bonds cheer lower inflation, while Asian shares fall on chipmaker drag
Asian shares dropped on Thursday, as chipmakers stumbled before results from bellwether TSMC. Bonds benefited 'from another benign reading of U.S. inflation which?lessened risk of an impending rate hike. As hostilities escalated in the Middle East, oil prices continued to rise. Washington has continued to strike Iran following the re-imposition of a naval blocade on its ports. Meanwhile, Tehran has warned of an "existential conflict" with America. Brent crude futures increased 0.6% to $85.45 per barrel, adding to the 12% gain this week. The quarterly earnings of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), world's leading manufacturer of advanced AI chip, are the focus. The company's net profit is expected to increase by 59% for the period April-June, marking a fifth consecutive quarter of record earnings. Investors are not happy as ASML shares, the dominant global supplier of equipment used to manufacture high-tech computer chip, ended 0.4% lower despite it raising its sales forecasts for 2026 and pledging a capacity increase. Brian Heavey said, in a JPMorgan note, that he was "seeing aggressive pullbacks in Memory/Hardware". Don't believe there is a 'negative headline' that's driving the semis/hardware sale. "I think it just shows how high semis earnings are." The?selling spread to Asia. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 1.7%, while South Korea's KOSPI dropped 6.3% due to SK Hynix's 11% drop and Samsung's 8% decline. Japan's Nikkei dropped 3%. Taiwanese stocks fell by 0.5% while China's Hang Seng Index rose 1.2%. The South Korean central bank increased interest rates to 2.75 percent on Thursday for the first increase in three-and-a half years. This was done to stabilize a falling won and to combat persistent inflationary pressure. The decision was mostly as expected. Wall Street gained overnight, as investors shifted from semiconductors to Magnificent Seven and banks following strong earnings by major lenders. However, Asia is more susceptible to the chip selling-off due to its greater exposure to "semiconductor" stocks. BONDS CHEER COOL INSFLATION The surprising softness of the U.S. consumer inflation data in June was added to the positive figures for the previous day. Markets now price out the likelihood of a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve within the next month to only 10% from 43% at the beginning. The pullback in inflation will likely only be temporary as oil prices are expected to rise due to renewed Middle East hostilities. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump was leaning toward expanding U.S. operations in Iran and sending ground forces. Bond investors are however focused on the cooler inflation data. The yields on two-year Treasury bonds increased by 2 basis points, to 4.1493%. They had fallen 14 bps in the previous?two days. Ten-year yields remained at 4.5593% after falling 7 basis points over the last two days. The dollar fell against all currencies except the yen. The dollar index was steady at 100.48 after dropping 0.4% overnight, to the lowest level since June 18. The yen was hovering at 162.08, not far from its 40-year low 162.84, as speculators remain cautious of Japanese intervention. The pound reached a two-month high on the expectation that Andy Burnham will choose a fiscally conservative Finance Minister, if he is named Labour Party leader this Friday. The pound rose 0.1% to $1.3538 after a 1% surge overnight. Gold remained at $4,055 per ounce.
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El Nino could affect growth, warns Peru's central banking chief after weak May GDP
The chief of Peru's central banking Julio Velarde warned on Wednesday that El Nino would "likely" weigh on economic activity in the coming months, as it did in May when the country recorded its lowest growth rate for the year. According to data released by the national statistics agency INEI in May, Peru's GDP grew 1.8% from a year earlier. This is below the 3.2% predicted in a survey and slower than April's 3.73% growth. Velarde stated that "Perhaps, the figures we will see in 'the coming months won't be as?good because they are derived?from an existing natural phenomenon." He added that the overall economic climate remained favorable due to the "exceptional" price of the minerals exported by the country. The 73.1% drop in fishing output was the main factor behind 'the slowdown'. Warmer surface waters, linked to El Nino, pushed fish like anchovies deeper into the water. INEI reported that the manufacturing output fell by 10.7% as climate change affected the production cycle of textile?industry. Industry groups have warned that a strong El Nino can affect cotton production and lower the demand for winter clothing. It could also complicate logistics due to flooding and rains.
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BHP's quarterly iron ore price rises despite China's purchasing curbs
BHP Group reported record iron ore production and higher realised prices on Friday, despite the purchasing restrictions imposed by China Mineral Resources Group during tense contract talks earlier this summer. BHP's Western Australia iron ore operations produced 291.2 Mt of iron ore on a 100 percent basis, which is higher than the 290 Mt. In fiscal 2026, the average realized price for iron increased by 3% to $84.56 a wet ton. BHP didn't mention any price impacts from its annual negotiation with China's State Buyer, after reporting in April that?its biggest client had lifted its prohibition on certain products. China's state-owned buyer is flexing his muscles in annual price negotiations with big iron ore miner companies. It wants to take advantage of its size and pay less for the ore to lower costs for its steelmakers. The miner expects to produce between 284 and 296 Mt of ore in fiscal 2027 from its Western Australia operations. Visible Alpha's consensus for the quarter ending in 2026 was 75.1 Mt. The 77.5 Mt production of the same period last year was based on the Visible-Alpha consensus. BHP's Port Hedland Iron Ore Operations, which handles $80 million in iron ore per day, is set to strike later on Thursday. Negotiations are expected to resume next Tuesday. COPPER PERFORMANCE & OUTLOOK The quarterly production of Copper, which BHP views as a source of long-term value growth, reached 491,900 tonnes in the quarter ending June 30. This was largely in line?the Visible Alpha estimation of 492,700 tones and less than 516,200 tones reported last year. Major miners are focusing more on copper as the demand for it increases, driven by the rapid growth of power consumption by AI data centers and the transition to cleaner energies. The underground conveyor belt at Carrapateena was unable to function properly last quarter due to a 'unexpected failure'. This process of recovery and replacement is expected to affect mine production for eight weeks. The copper production is expected to fall by as much as 15% next year, due to a predicted grade decline at Escondida. BHP projected that unit costs for fiscal 2026 would be lower than its forecast range. This shows a strong cost management, and resilience to a challenging macroeconomic climate. Separately the miner announced approval of $900 million for the Ministers North Iron Ore?project, in Pilbara. First output is expected in fiscal year 2029. Early trade saw shares fall more than 1%, while the sub-index for mining fell by a little over 1%. BHP will release its annual results on 18 August.
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Sources say that China refineries are opting for less expensive crude oil in order to reduce their fuel oil consumption.
Industry sources say China's fuel demand will take a long time to recover after its imports hit a record low. Refiners reduced production and opted for cheaper crude as a result of the U.S. - Iran war. China's low demand for high-sulphur oil (HSFO), one of Asia’s largest importers, is expected to limit prices. This is despite the fact that the market has strengthened after Washington and Tehran intensified their attacks on the Middle East disrupting Gulf supply through the Strait of Hormuz. LSEG data show that the Asian refiners' margins for 380 centistoke HSFO rose to a discount of less than $2 a barge to Brent on March 13, which was the highest since more than a year. The?380cst HSFO crack for Dubai has risen to a premium of over $3.25 a barrel. A trading source at a Chinese refiner who refused to be identified due to commercial sensitivity said that "Regular crude oil currently trades at ICE levels between minus $5 and minus $8 a barrel." Fuel oil is no longer able to compete. In June, China's refinery run rates plummeted by a decade due to a weak domestic market and the export restrictions on refined oil products that followed the outbreak of conflict. The conflict has lowered the demand for fuel oil as an alternative to crude oil. Imports hit a record low in May According to LSEG data dating back to 2004, China's total imports of fuel oil in May fell to a monthly record low of approximately 559,000 metric tonnes (115,000 barrels). HSFO is a fuel that can be refined or used in marine fuel. According to Vortexa's ship-tracking data, June fuel oil imports totaled 700,000 to 800,00 tons. This is a slight increase from May, but still well below the typical import volume. In the first quarter 2026, China's fuel imports were about 2.29 millions tons per month compared to 1.8 million tons in 2025. Analysts and traders said that fuel oil imports may have recovered slightly in June and into July. However, they mainly used to refuel ships, not refineries. Chinese refineries import fuel oil primarily from Russia, as well as the Singapore and Malaysia trading hubs. According to Asian trading sources and refinery, the price of crude oil has also become more competitive. Traders said that spot offers for Russian straight-run oil fuel are currently muted due to low interest in buying. Russian fuel exports also fell as Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russian infrastructure. Chinese refiners are turning to discounted crude to take advantage of the additional?crude importquotas that were issued this year. Analysts said that while Beijing has eased the export restrictions for refined products, it is not clear whether this will lead to a rapid recovery in run rates or feedstock purchases.
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The fourth day of rising oil prices as a result of US strikes against Iran has raised fears about wider conflict
The price of oil rose on?Thursday for a forth consecutive day after a wave of U.S. strikes?on Iranian installations fueled fears of a full-scale conflict and supply?disruptions? in the Strait of Hormuz. After reimposing its naval blockade, the United States hit?Iran?s?coastal defenses and missile sites, on Wednesday. Iran, meanwhile, threatened to cut off regional energy exports by saying that it was in a "existential conflict" with America. Brent crude futures were up 33 cents or 0.4% to $85.28 a barge by 0026 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate futures were up 42 cents or 0.5% to $80.02 a barrel. Both benchmarks rose about 0.3% Wednesday, and hovered near the one-month highs?touched Tuesday. Hiroyuki Kikukawa is the chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment. He said that "while mediation efforts are continuing by neighbouring nations and the consensus is that a full-scale conflict is unlikely," WTI could rise to between $85-$87, depending on the outcome of the conflict. The oil prices rose this week, as the Strait of Hormuz was a major supply hub for oil and natural gas before the war. Last week, hostilities between Iran and the U.S. re-emerged, threatening to undermine a fragile truce that had been reached in June following several months of fighting. Analysts claim that Iran may have signalled its intention to use Houthi allies to close the Bab el-Mandeb Red Sea gateway through?Yemen, opening a front against Washington. This would put two of 'the most vital energy arteries in the world at risk. Goldman Sachs stated that Brent could reach $110 if the Gulf exports continue to stagnate, but could drop into the $60s at year's end if tensions ease and production recovers more quickly than expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories dropped by 1.7m barrels during the week ending July 10 compared to analysts' expectations of a 2.6m-barrel draw. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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BHP misses quarterly copper output estimates, flags lower Chilean production
BHP Group announced a larger-than-expected decrease in fourth-quarter copper production on Thursday. This was due to lower production in 'Escondida' and 'Pampa Norte. The Visible?Alpha estimate for the quarter ending June 30 was 492.7 Kt. The same period last years, 516.2 Ktreported. The unexpected failure of an underground conveyor belt in Carrapateena has impacted the production at Copper South Australia. It is expected that the recovery process will result in a mine 'production impact of up to 8 weeks. The copper production for fiscal year 2027 is forecast to range between 1,650 Kt to 1,800 Kt. This will be below the fiscal output of fiscal 2026, which was 1,952.8 Kt. BHP's Western Australia iron ore operations produced 74.8 Mt of iron ore on a quarterly basis, which is below Visible Alpha's consensus of 75.1 Mt and the 77.5 Mt that was produced during the same quarter a year ago. In fiscal 2026, the average realised price for iron increased?3%, to $84.56 wet metric tons. The miner announced that $900 million had been approved for the Ministers North Iron?Ore Project in Pilbara. First production is expected to begin in fiscal year 2029. Reporting by Sneha Kumar and Sherin Sun in Bengaluru, editing by Pooja Deai
How much will the price of ROI-LNG drop by 2026? Russell
The market for liquefied gas is preparing itself for an increase in supply, mostly from the top exporter, the United States. However, it is not clear how low the spot price will need to fall to clear these additional volumes.
According to commodity analysts Kpler, the global supply of super-chilled gasoline is forecast to reach 475 million metric tonnes in 2026. This represents a 10.2% increase over the 431 millions tons predicted for 2025.
This figure is comparable to South Korea's total annual demand, which is the third largest LNG importer in the world behind China and Japan.
Go Katayama, Kpler's principal LNG expert, told a Sydney seminar on Thursday that the U.S. will increase its capacity to 130 million tonnes next year.
The increase is from 90 millions tons in 2024 to 110 million expected this year.
Kpler predicts that Asian benchmark spot prices will fall by 5%.
This doesn't sound too bearish. However, within a price forecast average for a year there can be a lot of movement from week to week.
The price of a mmBtu will likely remain around $11.10 during the winter season in the north, but if the weather is colder than usual, the price could rise.
The spot price is expected to start in 2026 at a level well above the average $10 forecast for the entire year. This gives it the potential to fall throughout the year.
The second half of the year 2026 will see a large portion of the 44 million ton new LNG supply.
It is likely that the spot price will fall in the second half of the year as the market struggles with the additional supply.
Who Buys?
It is important to ask who will buy new LNG. Much of it is not contracted and therefore available for spot transaction.
Kpler expects that China's LNG imports will rise from 8 million to 75 millions tons in 2026, despite the weak demand for residential and trucking.
India and Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Philippines are also potential hotspots for LNG demand.
These countries are largely price-sensitive and would need to see a significant drop in the price of mmBtu below $8 to be compelled to buy large volumes.
Europe's LNG consumption may increase, as it continues to move away from Russian pipeline gas. However, growth could be modest as renewables take a greater share in the region's energy mix.
It is not clear if the additional LNG supply that will hit the market in 2026 can drive the price down to $8, but an even larger wave in 2027 may be sufficient to cause a significant drop in prices.
Qatar, the country that is second only to Australia in terms of LNG production, has been working to increase its output to 126 millions tons by 2027.
QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi stated last week that the Middle East producer was on track to begin new production at its massive North Field in the fourth quarter of this year.
The LNG market will soon reach a point where the supply growth is outpacing demand growth.
The market is now predicting that spot prices will continue to fall, which in turn will boost demand for Asian products.
Prices will need to stay low to sustain any increase in demand, which is likely to limit future investment in LNG capacity.
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These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
(source: Reuters)