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The coup leader is expected to remain in power during the Guinean presidential election

The coup leader is expected to remain in power during the Guinean presidential election
The coup leader is expected to remain in power during the Guinean presidential election

Mamady doumbouya, the leader of the coup in Guinea, is expected to win Sunday's presidential election. This will be aided by a launch of an iron ore mine that has been long-awaited and a weak field of competitors.

Doumbouya was a commander of the special forces when he ousted Alpha Conde four years ago. This was one of 'nine coups' that have rocked West and Central Africa in recent years.

He had initially promised not to run, but the new constitution that was approved in September removed any language that would have prohibited him from running and increased the term of office for presidents from five to seven.

Conde, the long-time leader of the opposition Cellou Dalein Diallo is in exile. Other potential challengers have been disqualified because they failed to provide required documentation. Eight challengers are left, who will not cause Doumbouya any trouble.

Bella Bah, a Guinean political analyst, said: "Let's be honest with ourselves. There can't be anyone else who can challenge him." But that's not what matters most. After the election, the president needs to step back and realize that he must now exercise his power," Bah said. He urged Doumbouya engage in dialogue beyond the military.

Doumbouya's government has limited political debate. Civil society groups have accused him of banning demonstrations, limiting press freedom, and preventing opposition activity.

Mining MILESTONE

Simandou is the richest iron ore deposit in the world and has the largest reserves of bauxite. It was launched officially last month.

Simandou's production, originally planned for 1997, has been "long delayed." The junta of Doumbouya has ordered that development be paused until 2022. They said they wanted to examine how national interests will be protected once the project is operational.

Simandou, the national development strategy of Guinea, is at the heart of Doumbouya’s vision.

Doumbouya supporters claim that the project, which is 75% owned by China, will see annual production reach 120 million tons. They also say the project will ensure Guinea receives its fair share of proceeds.

At a recent campaign event, government spokesperson Ousmane Diallo said: "Dear Guineans. Guinea is not for sale." "Guinea no longer is up for grabs. Guinea is standing strong."

After a dispute over a refinery, Doumbouya’s transitional government revoked the license of EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation and transferred its assets to a State-owned company.

Doumbouya has gained popularity because of the rise in resource nationalism, which is also evident in other countries with military leaders in the region, such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

"The way politics used to be done before and how it is now has changed." "We no longer have violent campaigns but there is excitement," said Conakry resident Mohamed Keita 65.

Everyone is free to express their views without violence.

WARMING REGIONAL TIERS

Gilles Yabi of the West African think tank WATHI said that while the campaign unfolded in a peaceful manner, it was not on an equal playing field due to Doumbouya’s tight grip.

"This is a context which does not allow any hope for a fair and free presidential election," Yabi stated.

"The mere act of holding an election for president will not change the reality of power. It will remain in the hands of military."

ECOWAS, the West African regional group, is still sending observers despite these concerns. This shows a "growing rapprochement", even though Guinea's formal suspension has been in place since the coup of 2021, Signal Risk, a consultancy, said in a report.

Around 6.7 million voters are registered, and provisional results should be available within 48 hours after the polls close. Reporting by Guinea Newsroom; Additional reporting and writing by Portia Corey-Boulet, Editing by Ros Russel

(source: Reuters)