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Kazakhstan's long-term fuel production strategy targets China and India
The energy ministry announced on Tuesday that Kazakhstan, which is one of the fastest-growing oil producing countries in the world plans to increase its fuel exports into China, India, and Central Asia. It hopes to capitalize on the growing demand for fuel in these regions. The government has approved a long-term strategy for the development of the oil refining sector between 2025 and 2040. Currently, the country has export restrictions for gasoline and diesel. After modernisation, the country now has three large oil production plants in Pavlodar, Shymkent, and Atyrau, with a combined annual output of 17 million metric tonnes (350,000 barrels a day). The Ministry said that it expects domestic fuel demand will grow by up to 2 percent per year due to urbanisation and industry development. It stated that it aimed to increase fuel exports by targeting China, India, and Central Asia countries with the aim of increasing the export share in the total production to 30% by the year 2040. The strategy could be funded by foreign investment, given Kazakhstan's 30 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, with Vladimir Soldatkin)
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The ex-wife of Russian oligarch Potanin asks UK court for clearance on claim to Nornickel shares
The ex-wife of Russian oligarch Vladimir Potanin urged on Tuesday that a London court of appeal let her pursue an untold multi-billion-dollar share of his Nornickel stake, potentially in one of the most expensive divorce cases brought. Potanin, CEO of Norilsk Nickel - the world's biggest palladium producer as well as a major producer for refined nickel – is facing a mammoth claim of divorce from his ex-wife Natalia Potanina. Potanina is seeking financial relief after their divorce, which was finalized in 2014. She wants 50% of the value her ex-husband’s ultimate beneficial interests in Nornickel shares. Potanin owns a 39% stake in Nornickel via his Interros holding, which, according to LSEG, is worth $9.4 Billion. Potanina also wants 50% of all dividends paid by Potanin to Potanin between 2014 and now, as well as a luxury Russian property on which they spent $150 million. Her lawyers claim that she only received $41.5 million in assets after the divorce. This is less than 1%. She has a right to "a fair portion of assets built up over the course of their marriage". Potanin says, however, that his ex-wife has received approximately $84 million. He argues the claim should be denied as they had no connection with Britain. In court documents, Edward Faulks stated that Potanina "first contact" with England and Wales after the breakup of her marriage was contacting English divorce lawyers. England and Wales is a jurisdiction that has been viewed as favorable by partners who are less wealthy. Courts regularly make awards in the hundreds of millions. Potanina was denied the right to file a divorce claim in 2019. A judge said that, if she were to be allowed to continue with her case, "there would be no limits to divorce tourism". The Supreme Court of the United Kingdom has sent the case back to the Court of Appeal for a decision on whether Potanina can continue with her claim. (Reporting and editing by Sam Tobin)
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Russell: OPEC and IEA crude demand forecasts could be too conservative
The International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as OPEC, are both more conservative in their growth forecasts. The numbers contained in the monthly report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the broader OPEC+ are less optimistic. The IEA has largely predicted the same thing in its monthly report for July. It forecast that the global crude oil demand would grow by 700,000.00 barrels per day in 2025. This is the lowest growth rate since 2009. OPEC’s July report is a little more optimistic, predicting that oil demand will rise by 1,29 million bpd by 2025. Of this, 1.16 million bpd will come from countries outside of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Both the IEA's and OPEC's forecasts are so cautious now that they run the risk of actually being too pessimistic. This is especially true in Asia, the region with the highest imports. Last year, OPEC was incredibly bullish about its demand predictions for Asia's crude imports while Asia's crude imports were falling. The difference between the demand forecast and the imports is obvious, but it is the volume of seaborne crude imports that is driving the price of crude oil, as this market accounts for 40% of the daily global demand. OPEC's July 2024 Monthly Report forecast that Asia’s non-OECD Oil Demand would increase by 1,34 million bpd, with China representing 760,000 bpd. According to LSEG Oil Research, Asia's crude oil imports will actually decline in 2024. They will drop by 370,000 bpd and reach 26.51 millions bpd. The first drop in Asia's imports of oil since 2021 occurred at a moment when the demand was impacted by COVID-19-related lockdowns. The difference between OPEC’s bullish predictions for most of 2024 and reality of low crude imports from Asia may have tempered their forecasts for the year 2025. Question is, are they now being too cautious? ASIA RECOVERY OPEC's monthly report for July forecasts that non-OECD Asia will see its oil demand rise by 610,000 bpd by 2025. China, Asia's largest crude importer with 210,000 bpd, and India, Asia’s second biggest crude importer with 160,000 bpd, are the two main contributors. In its report from July, the IEA stated that they expect China's oil demand to increase by 81,000 bpd by 2025. India is also expected to gain 92,000 bpd. The demand for oil in Asia non-OECD is expected to rise by 352,000 bpd. The IEA and OPEC numbers are both modest, particularly since Asia's crude oil imports have actually seen a relatively high growth rate in the first half 2025. According to calculations based upon LSEG data, Asia's imports for the first half of the year totaled 27,25 million bpd. This represents a 510,000 bpd increase over the same period in 2013. Imports rose in the second quarter in particular in China as refiners benefited from the lower oil prices at the time of cargo arrangements. Some of the increased oil imports were likely used to build up inventories. This process may continue into the second half if the oil prices remain low and OPEC+ continues to increase production amid the economic uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump's global trade war. The difference between the cautious oil demand estimates of this year and those of last year, which were more optimistic, shows that price is a much bigger factor in demand. This is especially true in Asia. In part, the low crude oil imports in Asia in 2024 were due to the high prices that persisted throughout the year. Prices peaked at $92 per barrel in April before falling briefly below $70 in late September. Brent futures, the benchmark, peaked at just under $82 per barrel in January and traded as low as $58.50 per barrel in May. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Kate Mayberry).
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RTX reduces its profit forecast for 2025 as tariff costs weigh on the company
RTX cut their 2025 profit projection on Tuesday as the aerospace giant was hit by President Donald Trump’s trade war despite high demand for their engines and aftermarket service. In pre-market trading, shares of the company dropped 3.8%. Trump's tariffs on aluminum and steel imports have created uncertainty in the market, adding pressure to an already stressed supply chain. Neil Mitchell, chief financial officer at RTX, said in an exclusive interview that "we haven't seen any major impacts on our demand signals." We do expect some pressure to be put on prices and other costs as we try to recover this headwind in the long term. RTX warned that the trade war would cost $850 million, assuming that the steel and aluminum tariffs would remain at 25% and the China tariffs at 145%, and the global reciprocal tariffs at 10%. Trump has announced new tariffs against most of his trading partners but not China. RTX expects to earn between $5.80 - $5.95 in adjusted profit per share by 2025. This is down from the previous forecast of $6.00 - $6.15. Maintenance and repair services for commercial aircraft are banking on the shortage of new jets as production delays force airlines into operating an older fleet that is more expensive. The demand for its defense products has been strong despite the growing geopolitical tensions in the world. RTX Patriot air defense systems are widely used in Ukraine on the battlefield to counter Russian missile threats. Raytheon's defense division, RTX, reported that sales rose 8% in the second quarter to $7 billion. The company increased its 2025 adjusted sales forecast from $83 billion up to $84,75 billion. Sales at RTX’s Pratt and Whitney division, which manufactures engines for Airbus’ A320neo aircraft and competes against CFM International saw a 12% increase. Pratt has been struggling with production problems over the past few years. It is currently conducting an inspection of its geared turbofan engine components that may be defective. This has caused hundreds of planes to be grounded in recent months. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, the Arlington, Virginia based company reported a 9% increase in total revenue, which reached $21.6 billion. This compares to analysts' estimates of $20.63billion. The adjusted profit per share was $1.56 for the quarter. Analysts expected $1.44. Reporting by Mike Stone, Washington; Utkarsh shetti, Bengaluru. Editing by Arun K. Koyyur.
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Mali court rejects the appeal to release Barrick employees four, says judge
Judge Samba Sarr announced that a court in Mali rejected Barrick Mining's appeal to release four employees who were arrested in November. This is the latest development in an ongoing dispute between the Canadian company and the Mali Government over taxes and ownership rights of mining operations. Alifa Habib Kone is an attorney for Barrick. She said that the judge ruled the appeal of the company which dismissed the allegations made against the local employees as "unfounded". Kone stated that the employees are facing charges of money laundering and other violations. Barrick says it denies the allegations against its employees. Barrick and Mali’s military-run Government have been in talks since 2023 about the implementation of a mining code which increases taxes and gives the state a larger share of the gold mines in the country. Barrick owns about 80% of Loulo-Gounkoto in Mali, and the government has the remaining 20%. Since mid-January, operations have been suspended after the government seized Barrick's stocks and blocked its gold exports. According to Barrick, the four employees were arrested by Malian authorities in late November. They are currently in Bamako in pre-trial custody. Mali issued a warrant of arrest in December last year for Barrick's CEO Mark Bristow, who lives in Toronto. According to the warrant, he is accused of money-laundering and violation of financial regulations. The governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are seeking to renegotiate with gold mining companies to increase their share of the revenue. This is at a time where gold prices are soaring. Barrick generated $949m in revenue in the first nine-month period of last year from its operations in Mali. (Reporting and writing by TiemokoDiallo, Ayen DengBior, Susan Fenton and Robbie Corey Boulet)
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Jeanette Jara, a member of the coalition communist party in Chile, wants to become Chile's president.
With an unpopular president in place, the left of Chile has chosen to challenge a resurgent Right at the November election. Jeanette Jara is a member from the Communist Party. Jara, the Unity for Chile candidate chosen by voters in the last month, said she would win over sceptical voters by highlighting her record of advancing popular legislation, such as a reduced working week and pensions, under President Gabriel Boric. Jara faces a steep battle in spite of Boric's lack of popularity and her own affiliation to a party. This is a country still haunted by Augusto Pinochet's dictatorship, which followed the 1973 coup that ousted Salvador Allende, a democratically elected Marxist leader. Jara stated in an interview that "I believe a lot stories about (the Communist Party) come from the Cold War, and are not representative of the present situation." "In Chile, we are deeply committed to democracy and the respect of institutional norms." Jara was a student leader when he joined the party in the 1990s. He has worked both for the government and private sector. Jara served as Boric’s Labor Minister before he was appointed. He worked in various ministries under former center-left president Michelle Bachelet. Jara, 51, a charismatic woman, beat three other candidates in the primary election, including the presumed favorite. She has benefited from the popularity of younger voters, and she vows to create a broad coalition. Jara explained, "I thought that I could make a contribution to a situation in which there was no representative leadership or competition for building a broad perspective under one candidate." Jara, who spoke to the media outside her yellow-brick, small home, filled with plants, in Santiago, on Friday, said that she wanted to highlight her pragmatism, her ability to make deals, and her role as a leader in reforming pensions and legislation to reduce the workweek to just 40 hours. Jara stated, "I did not do it alone. I worked hand-in-hand to reach an agreement with workers and Chilean entrepreneurs." "We are experienced, but we do not have all the answers. Nobody is infallible." We have the ability to govern a country and implement the necessary reforms. Most scenarios show Jara losing in the second round to a candidate from the right. Chile's presidential election is scheduled for November 16, and if there are no candidates who receive a majority, a run-off will be held in December. CAMPAIGN FOCUS Jara's campaign will be based on three pillars, she said: economic growth and social issues; public safety. She wants to focus her campaign on issues that affect a majority in Chile, like job creation and the recurring question of income inequality which led to widespread protests last year. She said, "We cannot continue to have two Chiles in one country - one for the well-off and another for the vast majority." She also said that she would work to reduce crime. Chile is one of the most safe countries in Latin America. However, organized crime has flooded in, causing a rise in murder rates and a decline in economic growth. She criticized hardline proposals such as building border walls and placing landmines on the border, which have been proposed by right-wing candidates who blame the rise in crime on the increasing number of migrants. Jara added that while some people shout louder, or have unrealistic ideas, she trusted citizens to assess proposals that might lead to a solution. She would also increase funding for police and introduce biometric border screening. She said, "There is no easy solution to this problem." LITHIUM EXTRACTION Chile's economy is heavily dependent on mining. It is the world's biggest copper producer, and also one of the world's top lithium producers. Boric is trying to increase lithium production through a joint venture with the state-owned copper giant Codelco, and the local lithium miner SQM. The deal was opposed by right-wing candidates and Indigenous groups, as well as Jara. Jara stated that he did not agree with the agreement (SQM), which would have extended their lithium concession for 30 years. Jara cited a 2015 campaign finance scandal and SQM selling to Pinochet’s son-in law during the dictatorship. If Boric seals the deal under his government, I will respect it. "If not, I will propose a national company that would operate with the private sector as Codelco does for copper," she said. Jara responded to the threat of heavy tariffs by Donald Trump on copper, saying that she would concentrate on strengthening trade relations with Latin America and China. Jara stated, "We signed a recent trade agreement with India which I hope to strengthen and expand." She said that if elected, the relationship with the United States will remain diplomatic and cordial. "We must act prudently in order to protect our national interests."
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RTX reduces its profit forecast for 2025 as tariff costs weigh on the company
RTX cut their 2025 profit projection on Tuesday as the aerospace giant was hit by President Donald Trump’s trade war despite high demand for its aftermarket services and engines. Trump's tariffs on aluminum and steel imports have created uncertainty in the market, adding pressure to an already stressed supply chain. RTX warned that the trade war would cost $850 million, based on an assumption that China tariffs remained at 145%, and steel and aluminum tariffs stayed at 25%. Trump has announced new tariffs against most of his trading partners but not China. RTX expects to earn between $5.80 and 5.95 per share in 2025. This is down from the previous forecast of between $6.00 and 6.15 per share. Maintenance and repair services for commercial aircraft are banking on the shortage of new jets as production delays force airlines into operating an older fleet that is more expensive. The demand for its defense products has been strong despite the growing geopolitical tensions in the world. RTX Patriot air defense systems are widely used in Ukraine's battlefield to counter Russian missile threats. Raytheon's defense division, RTX, reported that sales rose 8% in the second quarter to $7 billion. The company increased its 2025 adjusted sales forecast from $83 billion up to $84,75 billion. Sales at RTX’s Pratt and Whitney division, which manufactures engines for Airbus’ A320neo aircraft and competes against CFM International saw a 12% increase. Pratt has been struggling with production problems over the past few years. It is currently conducting an inspection of its turbofan engines to look for possible flaws. Arlington, Virginia based company reported an increase of 9% in revenue total to $21.6 billion. The company's adjusted profit per share was $1.56, up from $1.41 in the previous quarter. (Reporting from Mike Stone in Washington, and Utkarsh shetti in Bengalur; editing by Arun Koyyur).
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China's CNOOC begins producing heavy crude oil at Bohai Kenli Oilfield
CNOOC Ltd., a Chinese company, announced on Tuesday that it had begun production in the Kenli 10-2 offshore oilfield of the Bohai Sea. The Kenli 10-2 field is estimated to hold 100 million metric tonnes or 730 million barrels geological reserves. The oil company said that the project was the largest shallow lithologic offshore oilfield and expected peak production to reach 19,400 barrels equivalents per day by 2026. CNOOC is the operator and holds a 100% stake. The project, which has an average depth of water of 20 meters, includes a central platform and two wellhead platforms. Plans are to drill 79 wells for development. The field produces heavy crude. CNOOC plans to increase total production at Bohai to 40 million tons of oil per year. The company said that it is the most complex production platform in the Bohai area and the first large thermal recovery platform in the southern Bohai Sea. According to the company, in 2024 the Bohai oilfield will produce more than 36,000,000 tons of crude oil, or 720,000 barrels of oil per day. This is nearly one-sixth the total output of China and contributes more than half the annual growth of production.
VEGOILS-Palm edges up, uncertainty over US trade deals keeps market volatile
The price of Malaysian palm oils futures increased slightly on Tuesday despite the fact that the market was volatile due to uncertainty surrounding potential trade agreements between major Asian nations and the United States.
At midday, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Derivatives Exchange for October delivery gained 25 ringgit or 0.59% to 4,250 Ringgit ($1,004.73) per metric ton. The contract fell by about 2.1% Monday.
Anilkumar bagani, the research head at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group, said that crude palm oil futures had risen overnight following strength in Chicago soyoil and South American futures.
Bagani stated that the market volatility is fueled by the fact that there has been no confirmation of any deals between the U.S.A. and other major Asian countries. This excludes Indonesia.
He said that the weakness in Chicago soyoil, and rapeseed oils, coupled with a stronger Malaysian Ringgit, had capped gains.
Dalian's palm oil contract, which is the most active contract, fell by 0.31%. Chicago Board of Trade soyoil prices were down by 0.91%.
As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oils industry, it tracks the price changes of competing edible oils.
Investor sentiment was impacted by concerns that a brewing trade conflict between the U.S., the European Union and other major oil consumers would reduce fuel demand growth through a reduction in economic activity.
Palm oil is less appealing as a biodiesel feedstock due to the weaker crude oil futures.
The palm ringgit's trade currency strengthened by 0.07% against dollars, making it slightly more expensive to buyers who hold foreign currencies.
Technical analyst Wang Tao stated that palm oil could retest its support level of 4,198 ringgits per ton. A break below this level would open the door for 4,150 ringgits.
(source: Reuters)