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Russia is expecting a record-breaking sunflower harvest in 2025 despite the problems in southern Russia

Russia is expecting a record-breaking sunflower harvest in 2025 despite the problems in southern Russia

Analysts say that the sunflower harvest is expected to reach a record in Russia this year despite the forecasts of a decline in the southern regions. This is due to the increase in acres and the good predictions for other regions in the country.

IKAR, a Russian consultancy, forecasts 17.9-18 million metric tonnes compared with 16.2 million in 2024. SovEcon expects 17.9 millions tons.

The decline in southern regions has been offset by the high figures of the Centre and Volga Regions, where conditions are favorable, and we estimate the yields will be above average," stated Andrei Sizov.

Rosstat, the Russian state statistical agency, recorded that sunflower acres in Russia were expected to increase for the 2025 harvest, despite falling wheat margins. However, the increase was greater than analysts predicted, increasing by 13.2%, or 11.043 hectares.

The market is pushing for a larger area of oilseed crops and fewer wheat crops. This is a powerful driver that will lead to new records for oilseed production in particular with favorable weather conditions", said Vitaly Shamaev.

Igor Pavensky is the head of Rusagrotrans' analytical centre. He said that the company has increased its forecast of this year's harvest of sunflowers in Russia from 17.5 million tons to 18.5 million tons. This was primarily due to the reassessment the area under cultivation.

Exports of sunflower oils could surpass Ukraine's, the current world leader in this field.

Analysts say that this year's hot, dry weather in Ukraine's south regions has affected the harvest.

SovEcon predicts that sunflower oil exports in Russia will reach a record 4.5-4.7 million tonnes in the next season, up from 4 million in 2024/25. Rusagrotrans expects to see a rise from 5.0-5.1 million to 5.4 millions, and IKAR from 4.65 to 5.2-5.3 million. (Reporting and editing by Nigel Hunt, Mark Porter, and Olga Popova)

(source: Reuters)