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The French harvest of wheat and barley continues at a rapid pace. Maize ratings continue to worsen
France's barley and wheat harvests are still well ahead of normal pace. However, maize conditions have declined after a hot summer start, according to FranceAgriMer, the farm office. The rapid field work and strong yields reported have raised expectations for a rebound in wheat and barley production after the rain-damaged harvest of last year, which included the smallest crop of wheat since the 1980s. FranceAgriMer reported in a report on cereals that French farmers had harvested 36 percent of the soft wheat harvest by 7 July, up from 11 percent a week before and exceeding the five-year median of 15 percent for the same period. The soft wheat rating improved slightly. 68% of the crops were rated as being in excellent or good condition. This is up by one point compared to a week ago and significantly higher than last year's score of 57%. The harvest of winter barley is almost complete. 94% of the crop was harvested on Monday compared to the average of 64% over the past five years. France and other parts in Europe have been experiencing scorching temperatures for the last month. The heat wave has accelerated the ripening process of wheat and barley, while only causing minimal stress to these cereals. Benoit Pietrement is the head of Intercereales - a French grain industry association. He said: "Overall it has been a good year, especially for winter barley." "Wheat is a little more mixed, but overall it's very good. It's much better than the last year." Pietrement explained that crops with strong roots from autumn last year were better able to withstand the spring drought, and could draw from moisture reserves left over from heavy rains last year. Spring barley, he said, was more likely to be affected by recent hot, dry conditions. FranceAgriMer reported that the harvest of spring barley had been completed by Monday at 30%, compared to a five-year median of 14%. By July 7, 75% of maize crops had been rated as good or excellent, down from 78% one week earlier. This is the lowest score this time of the year since 2018. The cooler temperatures and showers this week will help maize crops while slowing down the harvest of wheat and barley.
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Ford accepts voluntary redundancies at troubled eCar site in Cologne
Ford and German employee representatives announced on Friday that the company has agreed to an employment protection plan at its Cologne factory, which will cover over 10,000 employees. Voluntary redundancies are planned as a response to the slow uptake of electric vehicles. Ford has undergone a painful restructuring process in Europe. Cologne - Cuts in Cologne Then, there is the Closure is imminent Saarlouis, a new blow to Germany's reputation as a hub for car manufacturing. Ford announced in a press release that the framework is valid until 2032 and includes the 2,900 job reductions announced by the company last November. The majority of the job cuts were due to voluntary redundancies. In a press release, Benjamin Gruschka, the head of the works council said that severance pay was generous and better than normal in this industry. The IG Metall union stated that the future of Cologne's production was still unclear, but it welcomed the "safety-net." Ford, who invested $2 billion to transform its Cologne plant into an EV hub, called on the German Government to provide better incentives and charging infrastructure for drivers to make the switch to electric. IG Metall stated that the agreement for Cologne included the option for employees impacted by the reductions to trade places with other people in the company who are willing to leave. The agreement must still be approved by a vote of the workers. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Seythal, Rachel More)
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Trump visits Texas flood site amid concerns about disaster response
The U.S. president Donald Trump will be in central Texas this Friday to assess the damage caused by the flash flood of July 4, which killed at least 120 and left many more people missing. The government's response to the storm is a hot topic a week later, as first responders continue to comb through the mud and debris in the hope of finding more survivors. In the early morning hours of Independence Day, torrential rains caused a massive wall of water to rage down the Guadalupe River. Independence Day. This is the worst disaster of the Republican President's six-month tenure in office. According to a White House spokesperson, Trump will speak to family members of victims and emergency responders. The county, which is the heart of the damage, will be the site for his visit. He will receive a briefing by local officials and also see the sites. The county is in "flash-flood alley", an area that has been hit by some of the deadliest floods in American history. In less than an hour, more than a foot fell on the 4th of July. The river rose in height from a few inches to over 34 feet (10.40 meters) within a few hours. It washed away trees and other structures as it swept its way. At least 36 children are dead, including many campers from Camp Mystic - an all-girls Christian retreat located on the banks. Local and federal officials were questioned about their response. They also questioned whether they could've done more to warn the public of the rising floodwaters. Years ago, the county refused to install an early warning system because it could not secure funding from state grants to cover its cost. Officials say that their current focus is rescue and recovery. In a special session, the state legislature will meet later this month in order to investigate and provide funding for disaster relief. The Trump Administration has provided disaster relief through the Federal Emergency Management Agency. This includes funds for temporary housing, property damage, and disaster recovery. Trump has mostly avoided questions about his previous plans to shrink or eliminate the agency, and to have its key functions carried out by local and state governments. When asked about FEMA by a journalist on Tuesday, Trump replied: "I'll let you know another time." Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in the U.S. Senate, asked a government watchdog on Monday to investigate whether the National Weather Service's budget cuts affected its response. The NWS defended their forecasting and emergency planning, noting that they assigned extra forecasters in two Texas offices during the holiday weekend. The Trump administration said that the agency had enough staff and was able to respond adequately to an "act of God." A reporter asked Trump on Sunday if government budget cuts had hampered the response to disasters. Trump replied, "It didn’t." Reporting by Nicole Johnson, Washington; editing by Trevor Hunnicutt & Cynthia Osterman
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Copper prices fall on fears of tariffs affecting US demand
The copper price fell on Friday, as investors feared that a 50% tariff would be levied on U.S. imports of the metal. Speculators also unwound their positions. The London Metal Exchange's three-month copper was down 0.8% at $9,622 a metric ton as of 0915 GMT. This is down from the peak reached on July 2 for the last three months, which was $10,020.50. The contract was expected to drop about 2% in the second week of this year. Carsten Menke is an analyst at Julius Baer, Zurich. "Another aspect, I believe, is the re-evaluation of the situation by speculators who need to now reassess a situation that was quite bullish previously." Menke believes that the LME will return to $9,000 per ton, or less. In recent months, speculators have driven up the price of U.S. Copper on the expectation of tariffs after an announcement was made in February that an investigation would be conducted into import duties. COMEX copper prices reached an all-time high of $5.90 per lb after the announcement of the 50% levy, but fell on Friday by 1.4% to reach $5.51. This brings the COMEX premium over LME copper up to $2,532 per ton or 26%. Analysts said that the COMEX price was also affected by an overhang of inventory after traders sent roughly a year's supply of copper to the United States to avoid the tariff. Investors also faced uncertainty, including which products would be subject to the tariffs and whether certain countries could get exemptions. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract edged up 0.05% to 78.430 yuan (10,937.87), though it ended the week with a loss of 2.05% after two consecutive weeks in which the contract had gained 2.8%. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 0.4% to 2,598 per ton. Nickel also dropped 0.3%, to $15,230. Zinc lost 0.6%, to $2760. Lead was down by 0.7%, to $2029, and tin by 0.8%, to $33,305. Click here to see the latest news in metals.
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Goldman: BOJ may opt to sell ETFs gradually on the market.
Goldman Sachs announced on Friday that the Bank of Japan would sell its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings gradually in the market rather than opting for other ideas such as transferring them directly to government entities when it decided to unload their holdings in future. As part of its ultra-loose policy to revive a stagnant economy, the central bank bought ETFs from 2010 for a period of 13 years. The BOJ hasn't said when or how it will sell its ETFs worth 252 billion dollars, 37 trillion yen, and 70 trillion yen, which it purchased last year. The BOJ said that when it decided to sell the holdings it would follow three principles. It will dispose of ETFs for a price that is fair, avoids losses to the bank, and does so in a manner that causes minimal disruption in the market. Goldman Sachs reported that experts had suggested various options to unload the BOJ's ETF holdings, including transferring the ETFs to government entities or to the general public. The report stated that "however, the method which satisfies both three conditions will likely be a small-scale sale on the open markets over time." The report stated that to minimise BOJ's losses and their impact on the stock market, it would be reasonable for them to start selling ETFs in fiscal 2026-2027 and to sell at a pace of 600 billion to 1 trillion yen per year. Goldman's economists, including Akira Otani - a former BOJ executive who headed the financial markets department of the bank - compiled the report. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank would need more time before deciding how to best unload its ETFs.
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The IEA reports that Russia's fuel revenue fell by 14% in June compared to last year.
The International Energy Agency reported on Friday that the revenue of Russia from crude oil and petroleum products sales in June fell by nearly 14% compared to a year ago, reaching $13.57 billion. The global oil price has fallen in this year due to the economic uncertainty, and the increased production of OPEC+ (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies, including Russia. The IEA reported that Russia's crude production remained stable last month at 9.2 millions barrels per daily and that crude loadings remained at 4.68million bpd. The IEA reported that its exports of oil and petroleum products fell by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.55million bpd. The volumes of crude oil and its products remained at a low level for the past five years. The IEA stated in a paper that "the deterioration of exports has continued for most of 2024-2025 and raises concerns about Russia's capacity to maintain its upstream production," The company said that Russian crude prices were lower than the $60 barrel price cap imposed by the West on average in June, despite a trend above this level for ten days. North Sea Dated prices rose more than those of North Sea Dated as concerns about supply boosted crude purchases and tight crude markets continued. Four European diplomats said that the European Commission will likely propose a floating Russian crude oil price cap in a new draft package of sanctions. Kazakhstan, while meeting its OPEC+ production target, has consistently exceeded the agreed limits. An industry source said last week that the IEA reported that Kazakhstan's crude oil production increased by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June. This is 500,000 bpd more than its OPEC+ goal and nearly in line with 1.88 million bpd. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Olesya Astakhova and Vladimir Soldatkin)
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IEA: World oil market tighter than looks
International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday that the world oil market could be tighter than appears, despite an apparent surplus in supply and demand, as refineries increase processing to meet summer demand. The IEA (which advises industrialised nations) expects the global supply to increase by 2.1 millions barrels per day in this year. This is an increase of 300,000 bpd over its previous forecast. The IEA said that world demand would only rise by 700,000 barrels per day, suggesting a large surplus. Despite these changes, the IEA stated that the tightening market was due to the OPEC+'s latest supply increase and rising refinery processing rates aimed towards meeting summer travel demand and power generation. Announced on Saturday The effect of the ban on smoking cigarettes was not very significant. In a report, the agency stated that "the decision by OPEC+ of further accelerating the unwinding production cuts failed in a significant way due to tighter fundamentals." The hefty surplus on our balance sheets also suggests a tighter oil market. This week was a busy one for the earliest part of this week. Ministers and Executives OPEC and Western oil giants have said that the increase in output does not lead to an increase in inventories. This shows that markets are hungry for more oil. The IEA predicts that demand will grow by 720,000 bpd next year. This is 20,000 bpd less than was previously expected. Supply growth will also increase by 1.3 millions bpd implying a surplus. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janovski and Joe Bavier.)
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Gold gains and stocks fall after Trump tariffs on Canada
Global stocks dropped on Friday as U.S. president Donald Trump escalated his tariff war against Canada. This left Europe in the firing lines, causing a modest investor rush to safe havens such as gold. Bitcoin also hit a record high. The Canadian dollar dropped after Trump sent a late-night letter on Thursday stating that a 35% duty rate would be applied to all imports coming from Canada starting August 1. He also stated that the European Union will receive a similar letter on Friday. The U.S. President, whose global tariff wave has disrupted businesses and policymaking, proposed a 15% or 20% blanket tariff rate for other countries. This is an increase from the 10% baseline rate. He surprised Brazil this week, which has an excess of trade with the United States. He imposed duties of up to 50% on copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips. The markets have not reacted to the current volatility, with the exception of a few pockets of volatility, whether in currencies, commodities or stocks. In fact, the VIX volatility indicator is at its lowest level since late February. In Europe, STOXX 600 fell 0.7%, despite a 2.2% increase this week. Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow fell by 0.6%. This indicates that the record highs of this week will be retreated at the opening later. Fiona Cincotta, City Index's strategist, said that the market was becoming numb. It may not be until hard data is presented to show an impact before we start to see a reaction. "Clearly, we are getting more information that brings with it a certain clarity. "Because there is so many uncertainties, there's still the idea that Trump is open to negotiations, nothing feels final yet," she said. The Canadian dollar increased 0.3% to C$1.3695. The euro, whose value has dropped by nearly 1% since the beginning of July, fell 0.2% to $1.1683. Trump had earlier in the week pushed back to August 1, his deadline for tariffs for many trading partners, to give more time for negotiation. But he also expanded his trade war by setting new tariffs for several countries, including Japan and South Korea. He also imposed a 50% copper tariff. Joseph Capurso is the head of international economy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. He said that the 35% tariff rate on Canada wasn't as bad as people thought because the United States, Mexico, and Canada Agreement (USMCA) still allows for exemptions to be applied to most imports. Capurso stated, "Now we don't yet know the tariff rate on EU imports... that's what's not known as yet." "If we get something like (the U.S. - China trade war in April), it's going be very destabilising." Wall Street indexes closed at record highs Thursday, as AI chip maker Nvidia smashed records by achieving a market value of over $4 trillion. Gold has risen for the third consecutive day, rising 0.6% to $3342 per ounce. This brings July's gains to 1.2%. Treasuries received less of a boost as a safe haven, due to investor concerns about the long-term stability of U.S. government finance. This led to a selloff which pushed up yields. Benchmark 10-year yields increased 3 basis points, to 4.38%. This is in addition to the rise of Thursday on the backs of data showing that jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week. As the chances of a U.S. - Japan trade agreement dimming, the yen has steadily weakened. The dollar rose 0.4% to 146.76yen on Friday, resulting in the largest weekly gain this year of 1.6%. Bitcoin has risen by 3.8%, to $117.880. This is the highest ever. Investors will closely monitor the second-quarter earnings of corporations next week in order to assess the impact of Trump’s tariffs that began on April 2. JPMorgan Chase will release its results on Tuesday. This marks the beginning of the reporting period. Brent crude fell by nearly 2% to $68.88 per barrel, continuing the day's decline.
MORNING BID EUROPE - New tariff drama shakes complacent markets
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
On Friday, the markets were jolted from what appeared to be a dull day in summer when U.S. president Donald Trump went on TV to inject new drama into his simmering wars of trade and to disrupt Wall Street's recent upward trend to record highs.
Trump stated that tariff letters would be sent to Canada and Europe "today or tomorrow". He also floated the idea of increasing the tariff rate for other countries who do not receive a tariff letter from 10% to 15% or 20%.
He posted his letter to Canada in social media shortly after, stating that from August 1, a 35% duty rate would be applied to all Canadian products.
The market nerves were calmed slightly when an official from the administration clarified that goods covered by United States-Mexico Canada Agreement would be excluded. Wall Street futures fell 0.8%, and EUROSTOXX futures fell 0.7%. Last, they were down around 0.3%.
The currency markets were also roiled, but once the dust settled the dollar had gained 0.3% against the loonie, and the euro was down 0.2%.
As the chances of a U.S. - Japan trade agreement dim, so has the yen. The dollar rose 0.6% to 147.12yen on Friday, and is heading for the largest weekly gain this year of 1.7%.
The yen has fallen for the seventh consecutive week against the euro, and is at a five-month high against the Australian dollar.
Investors suspect that trade talks aren't going well between the EU and Trump, now that Trump has said the EU too will receive a letter. EU officials said they hoped to reach a deal by August 1.
Investors will be focusing on the second-quarter U.S. earnings report next week in order to assess the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
Fast Retailing, the owner of Uniqlo, has warned that tariffs could have a major impact on its U.S. operations later this year. It plans to increase prices to cushion the blow. Tokyo's stock market saw a drop of almost 7%.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday.
UK May monthly GDP
Canadian Employment Statistics for June
Eurozone Final CPI for June
Possible Trump letter to the EU on tariffs
(source: Reuters)