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Nigeria prepares a petroleum product stockpile in order to combat global supply shocks
The Nigerian petroleum products regulator announced at a Tuesday press conference that the country plans to create a strategic national stockpile of petroleum products this year in order to protect its economy from disruptions on the international market. Farouk Ahmad, the head of Nigeria's Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority said that the reserve would reduce supply shocks and improve the energy security of the nation. Nigeria is a country rich in oil, but it suffers from fuel shortages, and there are often long lines. The country aims to use expanding domestic refining capacity, particularly the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, to build resilience against global supply fluctuations. Ahmed stated that the new National Strategic Stock would be much larger than the current Nigerian Petroleum Reserves, which cover about 30 days' supply. The stock will be modeled after the Strategic Petroleum Reserve of the United States. He did not specify how much he planned to reserve. The Nigerian Petroleum Industry Law requires the regulator to grant a bulk petroleum storage licence to private depots. These depots can store products as long as they need. The Dangote Refinery, as well as five other refineries, were started in September. This resulted in a significant reduction in Nigeria's gas imports, which dropped from 50.8 millions litres a day in September to 28,7 million litres a day in October. According to data from the regulator, local refineries that are currently operating will process 770.500 bpd by June. The regulator expressed confidence that the expansion of refineries could eliminate the need to import gasoline. Reporting by Isaac Anyaogu Editing By Rod Nickel
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Austrian banker loses battle against extradition to US for money laundering charges
London's High Court on Tuesday ruled that the former CEO of an Austrian Bank can be extradited back to the United States for money laundering charges related to Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht. Peter Weinzierl, former chief executive officer of Meinl Bank (later renamed Anglo Austrian AAB Bank), is accused of helping to launder hundreds millions of dollars through a scheme that involved the use of slush money to bribe government officials. The 59-year old Austrian denies these allegations and has fought to prevent his extradition for a variety of reasons, including the fact that he had been "lured" into Britain in May 2021 in order to be arrested by an alleged U.S. agent. In June 2023, his appeal against his extradition decision was largely rejected. The High Court had previously ruled that Weinzierl was not extradited for one charge, conspiracy to commit money-laundering. However, the court approved Weinzierl’s extradition in regard to his other charges. The UK Supreme Court has blocked the appeal of Weinzierl’s case. Judge Jeremy Johnson ruled on Tuesday that the case does not raise a question of law of public importance. David Pack, Weinzierl’s lawyer, said in a press release: "The judiciary has missed an opportunity to give certainty regarding UK-U.S. Extradition Law." Weinzierl is facing charges in New York over his alleged involvement in a massive fraud scheme and bribery scheme that involved Odebrecht. Odebrecht changed its name to Novonor SA in 2020 after its previous name became synonymous with corruption. Odebrecht admitted to paying bribes in Latin America for the construction of its massive construction empire. Odebrecht, Brazil's biggest petrochemicals firm, and Braskem, its affiliated petrochemicals subsidiary, paid at least $3.5 Billion in 2016 to settle charges brought against them by U.S. authorities, Brazilian authorities, and Swiss officials.
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Chile pushes back against Trump copper tariff probe
The Chilean government wrote to President Donald Trump’s administration informing them that the copper imports from Chile - the largest supplier of metal to the United States - do not pose a threat to U.S. national security. Trump ordered an investigation in February, under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act. This is the same U.S. legislation he used during his first term in order to impose global tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium. In a letter dated March 31, the Chilean government expressed their anti-tariff position in a U.S. Commerce Department document that is now available publicly on a U.S. Federal website. Chile's Ambassador in Washington, Juan Valdes, wrote that copper imports from Chile contributed to the United States supply chain security. They did not pose any threat to their national security interests. The Trump administration has yet to provide any details on the results of its February investigation that aims to reduce China's influence on the global copper market. Section 232 investigations must be completed within 270 calendar days after they are initiated. Chile is the largest copper producer in the world, accounting for a quarter. Most of Chile's exports are sent to China. A free trade agreement has been in place since 2004 to cover its imports into the United States. The American Chamber of Commerce in Chile stated that Chilean copper exports are beneficial to the United States in terms of security and economy, and that tariffs may end up helping China. The group's CEO, Paula Estevez said that "the playing field has been leveled and tariffs would only serve to increase the attractiveness of Chilean copper exports to China and ultimately weaken the economic and security interest of the United States" in a March 31 letter, which is also available on the U.S. Federal website.
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B2Gold will cut 300 jobs from Namibia in this year
B2Gold, a Canadian gold mining firm, plans to reduce 300 jobs in Namibia by the end of this year. The company will continue its phased downscaling at Otjikoto after it has exhausted open pit reserves. Otjikoto, which started commercial production in March of 2015, produced an unprecedented 198,142 gold ounces last year. This accounted for almost a quarter B2Gold’s total output. "By 2025, we will reduce our permanent staff from 700 to 400. This means that 300 employees will be affected during 2025", B2Gold Namibia’s country manager John Roos told reporters Monday at a company presentation. Otjikoto also reported a record profit thanks to record-high gold prices. The company plans to continue processing the stockpiles until at least 2032. Current underground operations of the mine are expected to last until 2027. An extension is possible if exploration uncovers new mineral deposits. B2Gold began its phased reduction in Namibia in the first quarter 2024. 130 employees were laid off in that year. Otjikoto is expected to produce 165,000-185,000 ounces gold this year. B2Gold has gold mines operating in Mali, the Philippines and other countries. It also has numerous exploration and development projects in Mali, Colombia, and Finland. (Reporting and editing by Nelson Banya, Tomaszjanowski, and Tomasha Janowski).
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Stellantis Chairman: US tariffs and EU rules put auto industry at risk
John Elkann, Chairman of Stellantis, said on Tuesday that the U.S. Tariffs and strict European Union emission standards put automakers in danger at a time they are facing increased competition from China. Elkann, at a shareholder's meeting, said that the American and European auto industries were at risk due to the current course of tariffs and regulations. He said: "That would be tragic as the car industry is a source for jobs, innovation, and strong communities." Elkann is leading the group as it searches for a new chief executive officer after Carlos Tavares departed late last year. He said that "China is on a different trajectory", with the auto market in China set to surpass the combined U.S., European and Asian markets for the first ever. Elkann stated that automakers in the United States are faced with "layers upon layers of additional compounding duties including those on steel, aluminum and parts", beyond the 25% rate on automotive imports. He said that the statement made by U.S. president Donald Trump on Monday, in which he indicated he would consider some type of tariff reprieve to auto and auto part imports from Mexico and Canada, and other countries, was encouraging. Elkann said that the EU's CO2 regulation was "a realistic path to electrification but disconnected from the market reality". He said that "Governments in Europe, sometimes abruptly, have withdrawn purchase incentives and the charging infrastructure is still inadequate." In 2021, Stellantis was created by the merger between Fiat-Chrysler, Peugeot-Citroen and PSA. Jeep, Alfa Romeo, and Opel are also part of its brands.
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Mali closes Barrick Gold Bamako's office due to alleged non-payment taxes
Two sources familiar with the situation have confirmed that the Malian authorities closed the Canadian miner Barrick Gold’s office in Bamako due to alleged non-payments of taxes. This is the latest in a long-running dispute over mining revenue. Barrick Gold didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. It had previously denied all wrongdoing. Since 2023, the Toronto-based miner has been involved in a dispute with Mali over the new mining code of the West African nation that grants Mali's Government a larger share in the mine. One source said that staff in Bamako could not access the office. The closure, however, did not affect Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto mine complex in western Mali where operations had been suspended since the middle of January. Both sides are in negotiations to settle the dispute. On February 19, Barrick reported that it had signed a settlement agreement that is awaiting approval by the Malian government. Two other sources and one source who talked about the closure of the headquarters said that a resolution of the dispute could be expected by next week. All sources asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the subject. The government seized three tons of gold from the Loulo Gounkoto complex in January, accusing it of failing to meet its tax obligations. One source said that the tax dispute was separate from the reason for the office closing this week. Since early November, the Mali government, which came to power following coups in 2020 & 2021, has been blocking gold exports by the company. A fifth source confirmed that Barrick's Kibali Mine in Democratic Republic of Congo is temporarily transferring nearly 40 Malian employees from the Loulo-Gounkoto Complex. The person who spoke to us said that the transfers were part of a "first wave", but 100 Malian employees in total had been identified as being relocated, which is a sign that operations will not be restarted soon. (Reporting and editing by Silvia aloisi and Barbara Lewis.
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Russell: China's Q1 imports of key commodities were weak, but outlook is mixed.
China's imports were low in the first quarter. The challenge is to determine whether this was due to temporary factors, or a deeper economic malaise. In the first quarter of 2025, the four biggest commodity imports - crude oil, iron ore coal and copper - all fell compared to 2024. The soft imports can be explained by the fact that the second largest economy in the world is still trying to gain momentum for economic growth. This task is made more difficult by the trade war escalating by U.S. president Donald Trump. This ignores some factors that are unique to each commodity. Consider crude oil as an example. Customs data released Monday showed that imports in the first quarter were 135,25 million metric tonnes, or 10.97 million barrels a day. This is a 1.5% decrease from the same time last year. On the surface, this seems like a poor result. Crude imports certainly struggled in January and Febraury. Arrivals roared to life in March with a rise of 4.8% and reached 12.1 million bpd. This is the highest level since August 2023. It is unclear whether the increase in imports in March was due to an improvement in fuel demand or if it was driven by temporary factors. It is more likely that Chinese refiners purchased as many cargoes as possible of Iranian and Russian oil before the new U.S. sanction on these two countries' oil exports took effect. Kpler, a commodity analyst firm, estimated that China's imports of Iranian oil in March were 1.37 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 746 000 bpd and the highest since October. Kpler estimated that seaborne imports to Russia reached 1.25 million bpd. This is up from 760,000 in February, and the highest since November of last year. China imports pipelines from Russia at a rate of just under 1,000,000 bpd. The crude oil market is generally weak, and the strength seen in March was likely due to the United States' actual and anticipated measures. WEATHER HITS Imports of iron ore fell to 93.97 millions tons in March from 94.21 in February and 6.7% lower than March last year. Arrivals of key steel raw materials for the first quarter were 285.31 millions tons, a 7.8% decline from the same period last year. The weather disruptions in Australia, the country that supplies two-thirds China's total iron ore imports, were a major factor in the decline in iron ore prices. Exports of Australian iron ore to China fell to 50.5 millions tons in February, their lowest level in five years. The Chinese imports for April could be higher because many of the February-loading shipments arrived in March. Imports of coal of all grades were 114.85 millions tons in the first three months, down by 0.9% compared to the same period last year. Weather-related delays also affected shipments of iron ore from Australia. Australia is China's second largest supplier, after Indonesia. Australia's exports of goods to China fell to a two-year record low in February, at 3.74 million tonnes. Although they rose to 6.17 millions in March, they were still well below the average monthly volume of 6.7 million tones in 2024. Weaker Chinese prices encouraged utilities to switch from imports to local supplies. This trend is likely to continue and will put downward pressure on the volume of imports. Imports of copper unwrought also fell by 5.2% in the first three months, to 1.3 millions tons. Copper is another temporary factor. Shipments to the United States increased as traders rushed to capitalize on higher U.S. metal prices before the impending tariffs. Chinese buyers chose to reduce their imports as the United States was a major source of cargoes. They will wait for cheaper prices when the situation regarding Trump's possible tariffs is clarified. China's first-quarter commodity imports show a soft trend, with temporary factors causing the signs of strength. For example, crude oil arrivals for March were boosted by temporary factors. The outlook is also cloudy due to Trump's new tariff of 145% on U.S. imported goods from China. If this continues, it will be harder for Beijing achieve its economic growth target of 5% by 2025. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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HSBC lowers Brent forecasts due to trade tensions and sluggish demand for oil
HSBC reduced its Brent crude forecast on Tuesday. It cited rising trade tensions as well as an expected decrease in global oil consumption. The Bank cut its Brent Price Forecast to $68.5 per barrel in 2025, and $65 for 2026. The company also reduced its forecast for global demand growth in 2025 to 0.7 million barrels per day (mbd), and to 0.8 mbd in 2026, compared to the previous 0.9 mbd. This was due to an expected one-percentage point drop in global GDP. The ambiguous U.S. policy on trade has created uncertainty in the global oil market and prompted the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce its demand forecast by 150,000 barrels a day. HSBC stated in a report that if prices remain between the low and mid $60s per barrel next winter, then the group may decide to pause its unwinding. Brent crude futures fell 20 cents or 0.3% to $64.66 a barrel at 1049 GMT. The bank stated that the U.S. pressure on Iran has not yet shown results. Other banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have also revised down their oil forecasts. Federal Register filings revealed that the Trump administration, on the geopolitical side, has begun investigations into imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The investigation was prompted by national security concerns arising from a heavy reliance on imported products, according to the Federal Register. (Reporting from Daksh Grocer and Anjana Anil, both in Bengaluru. Editing by David Evans.)
The morning bid in Europe- a two-step tariff
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The "reciprocal tariffs" are now off some smartphones and electronics. But maybe for only a short time, as the White House could decide to impose their own tariff after completing a study on the global supply chain. Or something.
Trump told reporters on Sunday that tariffs on semiconductors will be announced in the coming week, and a final decision on smartphones would be made "soon".
It's essentially more of the chaos. It is difficult to imagine how anyone managing a business can make long-term investment decisions in these conditions. This has limited the Wall Street futures' boost for now. The S&P 500 rose around 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1,2%. However, you'd have to assume that Apple shares will benefit at least in the short term.
European stock futures actually have performed better. This could be due to speculation that Trump will also budge on other taxes. Investors may be buying Europe because they are worried about the threat to U.S. exceptionalism and "exorbitant privilige" - the dollar as the world reserve currency.
The dollar has been feeling the heat, dropping below 143.00 yen again and continuing last week's 5% decline against the Swiss Franc. The euro is now knocking at $1.1400 and even high-beta Aussies and Kiwis are up. This is a clear sign that the dollar is losing its safe-haven status.
Some Japanese officials have reportedly been preparing for trade talks with the United States, which will probably touch on currency policies. They are preparing for Washington to ask Tokyo to support the yen.
If the White House starts to talk down the dollar, it will scare off those investors who have unhedged U.S. assets. This is the majority of them.
The longer-term Treasuries yields are still up by 50 basis points, but they have not reversed the shocking jump. This would be a significant tightening of financial conditions, and a drag on the housing market if it were to continue. The Fed has another reason to ease, even if inflation continues to rise.
The New York Fed's survey of inflation expectations, due on Monday, will be very interesting to see whether it shows the same spike as the University of Michigan data. The retail sales data due on Wednesday for March could be very strong, as consumers rush to purchase autos and other products before tariffs take effect.
The Fed Chair Powell will also have the opportunity to share his views on Wednesday, at the Economic Club of Chicago. This Q&A is expected to be lively. The markets indicate a 20% probability of a rate cut in May, which rises to almost 80% by June. The markets have priced in 80 basis points for the entire year. However, this was up by around 130 basis point last week.
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
NY Fed inflation expectations Survey
Waller, Barkin Harker, and Bostic are among the Fed speakers
(source: Reuters)