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Copper falls from its fresh peak following downbeat Chinese data
Copper prices fell from their five-month high on Friday as concerns about U.S. Tariffs and disappointing data from China, the world's largest metals consumer, dampened purchasing activity. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metals Exchange rose 0.1% to $9,797 per metric tonne by 1030 GMT. It had previously reached $9,850 a metric tonne, its highest level since October 9. Prices fell after the new lending by banks in China in February was lower than expected from its record high of the previous month. Nitesh Sha, a commodity strategist with WisdomTree, said that the price of copper would be negatively affected by the lack of confidence in China's ability to control its stimulus and activities. "Dr. Copper is also very sensitive to the growth concerns in other parts of the world. "I think tariffs are causing these concerns," he said. The copper market has been alternating between buying on the assumption of tariffs forcing U.S. consumer to pay higher prices for the metal and worrying that demand would suffer if the growth slows down. LME copper has gained 12% this year, and Friday marked the fourth session in a row of gains. The most active U.S. copper futures on the Comex for May were unchanged at $4.93 per lb, after reaching $4.96. This was their highest since May of last year. The premium for Comex copper over LME is $1,063 per ton. Alphamin Resources has ceased mining at Bissie Tin mine in Democratic Republic of Congo. LME futures reached their highest level since 2022 on Thursday. In a recent note, Wang Weiwei said that the Bisie Tin Mine is the third largest tin mining operation in the world, and will contribute 6% of tin ore to the world in 2024. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a jump of 8.6% in tin prices on Friday, after reaching the upper limit of 10% during the morning Asian trade. LME Tin gained 1.4% to $36,410 per ton on Friday after reaching $37,100. This was its highest level since June 2022. LME aluminium fell 0.2% to $2,696.50 per ton. Nickel gained 1.1%, to $16,690. Lead increased 0.5% to 2,082.50, and zinc grew 1% to 2,990.50. (Reporting and Editing by Leroy Leo; Additional Reporting from Polina Devtt in London, Violet Li in Shanghai.
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Oil prices rise on uncertain path to Ukraine ceasefire
The oil prices recovered on Friday, after losing more than 1% in the previous session. This was partly due to the decreasing prospects for a rapid end to the Ukraine conflict that could bring more Russian energy to Western markets. Brent crude futures rose 54 cents or 0.77% to $70.42 per barrel at 1055 GMT after falling 1.5% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $67.13 per barrel, up 58c or 0.87% after closing 1.7% lower on Thursday. Brent and WTI prices are expected to be more or less the same as last Friday's settlement, which saw Brent settle at $70.36 while WTI settled at $67.04. Brent oil has been hovering around $70 for the last two weeks. Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note that whether it will stay at this level for the next week depends on political news. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday that Moscow supports a U.S. proposed ceasefire in Ukraine, in principle. However, he asked for clarifications and conditions which appeared to prevent a rapid end to the fighting. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that "Russian support for a 30-day proposal of ceasefire with Ukraine has decreased confidence in a short-term ceasefire." Trump administration announced on Thursday the expiration of a license allowing financial transactions with Russian institutions to conduct energy transactions. This will increase pressure on Putin to reach a peace deal over Ukraine. Sources say that Chinese state-owned firms also limit Russian oil imports due to sanctions risk. China and Russia stood with Iran on Friday after the United States demanded that nuclear talks be held with Tehran. Senior Chinese and Russian diplomats said dialogue should only continue based upon "mutual respect", and all sanctions should be lifted. In a client note, ANZ analysts stated that geopolitical tensions could still disrupt supply. The International Energy Agency warned Thursday that the global oil supply may exceed demand this year by 600,000 barrels a day due to the growth in the United States, and a weaker global demand than expected. The IEA's estimates of demand growth for the fourth quarter of 2024, and the first three months of 2019, were reduced due to the unstable macroeconomic conditions caused primarily by the escalating tensions in trade between the U.S. Analysts at Commerzbank said that "high risks on the supply side and increased production from OPEC+" argue against a sustained rise in oil prices.
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Britain's Energy Minister visits China to discuss climate change and energy cooperation
Britain's Energy Minister is visiting Beijing this Friday to discuss climate issues and energy issues. He hopes that re-engaging China, the world's biggest carbon emitter as well as a supplier of renewable energy infrastructure, will bring economic benefits. The government announced that Ed Miliband would meet with the Chinese energy and environmental ministers on his 14-17 March visit. He will also launch a framework of climate talks, which will see his counterparts in Beijing visiting London later this summer. Miliband wants to update an old clean energy partnership that has been in place for a decade with China. He will outline areas of collaboration, such as carbon capture and storage technologies and hydrogen power production. The UK hopes that its goal of switching almost exclusively to clean energy by the end decade will be aided by closer ties with China. China is the world's largest investor and supplier of renewable energy infrastructure. Miliband also wants to see his ambitious target of decarbonisation rub off on Chinese policies, and the Chinese government has promised to share their expertise in phasing-out the use coal, on which China is still heavily reliant. Miliband stated that "we can only protect future generations from climate change by ensuring all major emitters take action." It is a simple act of neglect to the present and future generations to not engage China in how it can take action on climate change. This is the third visit by a senior British Minister in recent months, following the foreign and finance ministries. Keir starmer wants to reset the relationship with Beijing after the degeneration of relations under the former British government. The Starmer government’s approach to China revolves around a mantra that is often repeated by its ministers: “cooperating when we can, competing when we need to, challenging where we have to.” The British government announced that Miliband would "engage honestly" with Britain's concerns over forced labour in Hong Kong, freedoms and human rights in Hong Kong, and China's support of Russia's conflict in Ukraine. (Reporting and editing by Christina Fincher, Susanna Twidale and William James)
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EU envoys renew sanction against Russian individuals and entities
EU diplomats reported that the European Union renewed sanctions against Russian individuals and entities on Friday, but did not remove Russian tycoon Mikhail Fridman from the list in spite of pressures from Hungary. The EU sanctions list must be renewed by all 27 ambassadors in Brussels every six months. The list was renewed through September 15th, the deadline for renewal being Saturday. Hungary, which maintains cordial relations with Moscow despite Ukraine's war, threatened to block renewal of the list unless certain people were removed. Two diplomats confirmed that Budapest initially requested nine names be removed, including Fridman, but other envoys were able to reduce the list to just three Russians. The three are Gulbakhor, the sister of prominent businessman Alisher Usmanov; Viatcheslav, Moshe Kantor, a businessman, and Russian Sports Minister Mikhail Degtyarev. The removal of a fourth person, Vladimir Rashevsky (a businessman), was due to the weakening of his legal case, rather than any pressure from Budapest. Three other names were removed because they died. More than 2,400 people and entities are on the EU's list of sanctions against Russia. Reporting by Julia Payne, Lili Bayer and Alison Williams; editing by Gareth Jones and Alison Williams
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AVZ Minerals, Australia's lithium mining company, wins legal victory in Congo against Congo
AVZ Minerals, an Australian company, announced on Friday that it had won a court case against the Democratic Republic of Congo and China's Zijin Mining for the rights to the Manono Lithium Mine. It is now in negotiations with U.S. parties about raising funds for the project. The International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce ordered DRC state-owned Cominiere, to pay a fine of 39.1 millions euros ($42.46million) for failing to comply with orders earlier to cease any action terminating its joint enterprise with AVZ. AVZ originally held the permit for the development of the Manono Project, one the largest hard rock deposits in the world. This was revoked by the DRC’s mines ministry in 2023, citing that the company hadn’t developed the project quickly enough. The AVZ sought relief from the ICC after a unit of China’s Zijin Mining was granted these rights. AVZ said it will consider recovering the penalty after its shares were suspended and then delisted in May 2022. The Australian company also stated that it was in fact-finding talks with several U.S. parties to raise money for the Manono Project. ($1 = 0.9209 euro) (Reporting and editing by Vijay Kishore in Bengaluru)
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Mark Carney will be sworn-in as the new Canadian Prime Minister, but now he must face Trump
Mark Carney, the former central banker of Canada, will be formally inaugurated as Prime Minister on Friday. This puts him in an ideal position to combat tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump which could destroy Canada's trade-dependent economy. Carney will swear in as Canada's president at 11 am, with the Governor General Mary Simon present. She is the representative of King Charles. ET (1500 GMT). This moment is the culmination of a remarkable rise for the 59 year old, who becomes Canada's first prime minister with no serious political experience. Carney dominated his rivals in the race to be leader of the Liberal Party on Sunday. He will succeed Justin Trudeau who served in the office for more than nine long years. Carney, the former head of the Bank of Canada as well as the Bank of England, successfully argued that his outsider status and history of dealing with crises made him the ideal person to face Trump, who repeatedly spoke of annexing Canada. Carney told reporters on Wednesday that he would be ready to meet Trump if "there was respect for Canadian sovereignty." He said that he would also continue to impose retaliatory duties on U.S. products until the United States shows Canada some respect. Carney will name a cabinet, but it will not likely be in place for very long. Liberal insiders claim that he'll call an election within the next few days. Opposition parties have said that if he changes his decision, they will join forces to topple the minority Liberal government at the end March in a vote of confidence. Carney's political options will be severely limited once the election is announced, because he cannot take major decisions while running for office. According to the latest opinion polls, it is likely that neither party will gain enough seats to form a majority government. (Reporting and editing by Nia William in Ottawa, with David Ljunggren reporting from Ottawa)
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The price of gas in Europe is falling due to strong winds and the ceasefire talks with Ukraine
The Dutch and British gas price continued to drop on Friday morning, amid high expectations for wind power production and talk of a potential ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict. The Dutch front-month contracts > dropped by 0.29 euros to 41.79 Euro per megawatt hour at 0907 GMT on ICE. The Dutch March contract fell by 0.27 euros to 41.66 Euro/MWh. The British front-month contracts were down 0.43 pence to 102.56 p/therm. LSEG data indicated that stronger wind speeds are expected for the beginning of next week. Gas for power in Northwest Europe is forecast to be down 201 gigawatt-hours a day (GWh/d), at 2,908 GWh/d on Monday. The possibility of a Ukrainian ceasefire has also been raised after Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday that the U.S. proposal was accepted by his country, but any ceasefire must address the root causes of conflict and many details need to be worked out. Putin mentioned a possible energy partnership between the U.S.A. and Russia, and mentioned a pipeline of gas for Europe. Analysts at Energy Aspects stated that the market was hedging between Russian gas flowing back and flow levels remaining subdued. Analysts said that there was still significant opposition from Europe and Ukraine to the restarting of the pipeline flow, along with legal and logistical obstacles. The Trump administration announced on Thursday that a license for energy transactions with Russian financial institutes expired this week. This increased pressure on Putin to reach a peace deal over Ukraine. In a daily comment, LSEG analyst Saku Jussila said: "This could be a bullish catalyst for energy commodities generally but shouldn't affect the European Gas Markets directly." The benchmark carbon contract in Europe fell by 0.80 euros to 69.80 Euros per metric ton. (Reporting by Susanna Twidale, Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
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Polish central bank expects CPI to return to target range by Q3 2026
According to Friday's projection, the inflation rate in Poland will reach the target range of the central bank in the third quarter 2026. It will stay there until the end of 2027. The National Bank of Poland has set an inflation target of 2.5%, plus or minus a percentage point. The price growth rate in January was 4.9%, and preliminary statistics from the Statistics Office indicate that it was also 4.9% for February. The first half of 2025 will see the highest inflation (5.4% for the first quarter, and 5.2% for the second), before it begins to decline in the third. The central bank stated in a recent report that "regulations in the energy sector will increase CPI inflation in 2025, and in the first half 2026." The government's maximum electricity prices are in effect until the third quarter 2025. It has yet to decide whether or not they will be extended. According to the projection published in March, the inflation rate in 2025 is lower than the one predicted in November (5.6% vs. 4.9%), but the estimates for next year have been increased to 3.4%, from 2.7%. A projection shows that Poland’s GDP will grow faster in 2025, from around 3% to 3,7%. This will be supported by an increase in funds coming from the European Union as well as the National Recovery Plan. In 2026 the GDP growth rate will be 3.4% and in 2027 it will be 2.5%. Adam Glapinski, the Polish central bank governor, said that there are no current reasons to cut interest rates due to inflation. The central bank stated that the projection was prepared using data up to 27 February 2025. It assumed unchanged NBP rates, including a reference rate of 5.75 percent. (Reporting and editing by Philippa Flletcher; Pawel Florkiewicz)
Asia shares remain steady; gold reaches record levels as trade war escalates
Asia shares rose and global markets tried to rebound after a brutal saleoff. Gold reached a new record as an increase in global trade tensions made investors nervous, causing them to flee into safe-haven assets. Stocks in early Asian trading rose as investors were relieved that a U.S. shutdown was unlikely. Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer had said he'd vote to advance a Republican short-term funding bill and signaled his party's support.
U.S. futures for stocks rose in response. The Nasdaq futures were up 0.87%, and the S&P 500 futures were up 0.7%.
The FTSE Futures also gained 0.1% and the EuroStoxx 50 futures rose 0.04%.
Alvin Tan is the head of Asia FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. He said that this news, for today at least, was positive for market sentiment.
MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan, which measures the performance of stocks in that region, traded 0.2% higher. However, it was still on track to drop more than 2% this week as global trade conflicts impacted global stock markets. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he will impose a 200% tariff on imports of European spirits and wine if the EU does not remove the retaliatory duties on American whiskeys and other products which come into effect in the next month.
Vishnu Varathan is the head of Asia ex-Japan macro research at Mizuho. He said that Trump is making it clear that, if someone were to retaliate against him, his counter-escalation would be even more sharp. The latest developments were the catalyst for the steep selloffs on Wall Street, and confirmed that the S&P 500 is in a correction. This comes just one week after Nasdaq also confirmed this.
"I don't think Trump 2.0 is the same as Trump 1.0. Michael Strobaek is the global chief investment officer of Lombard Odier. He said that this time the president appears to be willing to let U.S. stocks and the economy suffer as he implements his "America first" goals.
Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, has benefited from the trade war. The yellow metal hit a record of $2,990.09 per ounce last Friday. The yellow metal was expected to rise 2.6% this week.
Japan's Nikkei recovered from early losses and rose 0.12%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained 1% as well, but was on track for a weekly decline of 2.3%. China's CSI300 index of blue-chip stocks advanced by 1.4%, and is expected to increase 0.6% this week.
Dollar Trouble The dollar recovered some lost ground thanks to safe-haven flows on Friday, but it was still not far from recent lows due to fears of an imminent U.S. economic recession.
The euro traded at $1.0841 last, down 0.1%. Sterling fell by 0.05% to reach $1.2944. The fiscal reset plan of Germany, which includes a 500-billion-euro fund for infrastructure as well as sweeping changes in borrowing rules and growth boosters to boost military spending and revive the largest economy in Europe, has given additional support to the euro. The outgoing lower chamber of the German parliament will vote on these measures on 18 March before the formation a new Parliament on 25 March.
Investors will be waiting for further information on the rate outlook, amid the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies on trade and the impact they have on U.S. inflation and growth.
"Our assessment shows that the rate trend is constant, and will continue to be lower." Varathan from Mizuho said that it's a matter of timing.
"I believe that the tariffs won't be a hindrance to the Fed cuts because, even if prices increase, it will still result in a negative shock of demand and the people will not benefit." The dollar last gained 0.3% against yen, at 148.25. However, it was on track for a small weekly loss versus the Japanese currency due to bets that more Bank of Japan rate hikes will occur. Next week, the BOJ will also meet.
Oil prices rose after falling the previous session.
Brent futures increased 0.54%, to $70.26 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 0.6% to $66.66 per barrel.
(source: Reuters)