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World Bank expects commodity prices to fall back to levels before COVID
The World Bank forecast on Tuesday that a weakening of global growth, due to trade tensions, will drive global commodity prices down by 12% in 2020 and another 5% to their lowest levels in the 2000s. According to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook Report from the development lender, inflation-adjusted commodity prices will fall to their average 2015-2019 in the next two year, bringing an end to the price boom fuelled by the COVID-19 recovery and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 2022. This decline may moderate the inflation risks that are associated with new U.S. trade barriers and steep tariffs, but could also have adverse consequences for developing countries that export commodities. Indermit Gil, World Bank's Chief Economist, said that higher commodity prices were a boon to many developing countries. Two-thirds are exporters of commodities. Now we are seeing the most volatile price levels in over 50 years. "The combination of low prices and high price volatility spells trouble." He said that these countries should liberalize their trade wherever possible, restore fiscal discipline, and create an environment more friendly to business in order to attract private investment. The World Bank reported that while rising energy prices contributed to global inflation by more than 2 percentage points in 2022 but felling prices in 2023-2024 helped moderate it. The report predicted that energy prices will fall by 17%, to the lowest level they have been in five years. They are then expected to drop another 6% between 2026 and 2026. Brent crude is expected to average $64 a barrel by 2025, a $17 decline from 2024, and $60 a bar in 2026, amidst abundant supply and declining demand. This is partly due to China's rapid adoption of electric cars, the largest auto market in the world. Brent traded at $64.80 per barrel in the early hours of Tuesday. As coal consumption in developing countries slows, the price of coal is expected to drop by 27% in 2025. Food prices will also be expected to fall, by 7% by 2025, and another 1% in the following year. However, this won't do much to alleviate food insecurity in some of those countries that are most vulnerable, as humanitarian aid is cut back and armed conflict fuels acute hunger. According to the World Bank report, gold prices will likely set a record in 2025 due to investors seeking safe havens in an uncertain world. However, they predict that price stabilization in 2026. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; Reporting by David Lawder)
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Minister says Pakistan is preparing to challenge India’s suspension of the water treaty
A government minister said that Pakistan was preparing to take international legal action against India for its suspension of an important river water-sharing agreement. Tensions between neighbours have been intensifying since the attack on tourists who were in India-administered Kashmir. Aqeel Makik, Minister of State for Law and Justice in Islamabad, said late on Monday Islamabad had plans for three legal options. One was to raise the issue with the World Bank, which is the facilitator for the treaty. He said that India was also contemplating taking action before the Permanent Court of Arbitration, or the International Court of Justice at The Hague to allege India had violated the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969. Malik stated that the legal strategy consultations were almost completed. He added that a decision would be made soon on which cases would be pursued. This would include more than one avenue. India's officials responsible for water resources did not respond immediately to a comment request. India suspended last week the World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Treaty of 60 after the attack on Kashmir. It said it would remain in place until Pakistan "credibly and irrevocably" abjures support for cross border terrorism. Islamabad has denied any involvement in the 26-person attack. India has said that two of the three attackers it has identified are from Pakistan. Islamabad said that "any attempt to divert or stop the flow of water belonging Pakistan... will be considered an act of warfare". Pakistan has also closed its airspace and suspended all trade with India. Two of the three wars that have been fought by these nuclear-armed neighbors since their independence in 1947 were fought over Kashmir. Both countries rule a part of it, but both claim full control. This agreement is for the distribution of water from the Indus and its tributaries that feeds 80% of Pakistani irrigated agricultural and hydropower. The treaty has been in place despite wars, and other periods of hostility between both nations. Malik said that Islamabad is considering a fourth diplomatic solution, which would be to bring the issue before the United Nations Security Council. He said, "All options are on table and we're pursuing all the appropriate and competent forums that can be approached." Malik said: "The Treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended and cannot be kept in abeyance. There is no (such) provision in the treaty." Kushvinder Voihra, recently retired chief of India's Central Water Commission, said: "There is very little (for Pakistan)." I can confirm that we have solid grounds to defend (India's action). Both government officials and experts say that India cannot immediately stop the flow of water, as the treaty only allows it to build hydropower plants on three rivers allotted to Pakistan without significant storage or large dams. Farmers, who are already suffering from water shortages due to climate change, have expressed concern. Reporting by Charlotte Greenfield, Islamabad. Additional reporting by Krishna Das, New Delhi. Editing by Raju Gopikrishnan.
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Foreign Minister says Belgium is open to a bigger role in Congo mineral sector
The Belgian Foreign Minister said that the country is willing to invest more in the minerals sector of Democratic Republic of Congo. This was during a recent visit to this former Belgian colony which is looking to diversify their investment partners. Central Africa is a vast nation with large mineral reserves, including copper, cobalt and lithium, but the chronic instability that has plagued it for decades has prevented foreign investment from being made to fully exploit them. Kinshasa is currently on a push to attract new players to the sector and talks are already under way with Washington after a Congolese senator pitching a minerals-for-security deal contacted U.S. officials. When asked by Monday about the possibility of interest in Congolese mineral, Minister Maxime Prevot replied that Belgium has firms with the expertise to increase its role in this sector. He said that players such as Umicore, John Cockerill and others have the expertise to process these rare materials. He added, "If the opportunity ever arises for us to be an investor partner as well, we won't back down." Belgian companies have been mining, processing, and trading Congolese diamonds, cobalt and copper for decades, despite China's dominance. Last year, Umicore, a global materials technology company based in Belgium, signed an agreement with the state miner Gecamines to ship concentrates of germanium to Europe. Prevot said that Belgium's approach in working with Congo is good for both nations, and contrasted it with the way some other partners operate. He said: "We watch the motivations and approaches of other international actors, who can have a transactional approach at times." Prevot, a Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group, is currently waging an offensive against the Congolese army in the eastern provinces of the country. (Extra reporting by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Dakar; Writing and editing by Sofia Christensen and Joe Bavier.
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Ferrari launches new 296 Speciale Hybrid models in advance of EV launch
Ferrari updated its hybrid range with the 296 Speciale on Tuesday, and its convertible variant as it prepares to make its first jump into the fully-electric era. Ferrari, which will unveil its first EV next month, has unveiled two new plug-in hybrids at its Maranello headquarters in northern Italy. The 2021 Ferrari 296 is the basis for these cars, which are now nearing the end of their lifecycle. Enrico Galliera, the Chief Marketing and Sales Officer, said that the 296 Speciale was lighter, faster and had improved aerodynamics. He added that it was focused on driving pleasure and performance. He said, "It is not a vehicle for everyone. We won't expand our clientele with it." It's for our old clients who are familiar with Ferrari and want to experience the thrill of driving. The 296 Speciale is powered by a six-cylinder combustion engine with a displacement of three litres. It produces 700 horsepower. The electric component of the 296 Speciale adds 180 horsepower. The first deliveries are expected in the first quarter next year. The retractable top, also known as 'A,' will be available in second quarter. The price of the new car in Italy will be 407,000 euros (449,000 dollars), and 462,000 euros for a convertible. This puts the price in the middle to upper range of Ferrari. Galliera, who spoke after Ferrari announced that it would increase the prices of certain cars in the United States up to 10% as a response to tariffs, said the amount of the price hike will still be determined. The price increase in the U.S. is only affecting certain models that are nearing their end-of-life cycle. Galliera stated that although the order books for 296 Speciale opened on Tuesday, interest was already high. Priority will be given to clients who have dealt with an official Ferrari dealer within the last five years. Galliera said that although it is not a limited series model, the exclusivity of this car will be maintained by limiting its lifespan to four-to five years, as with other Ferrari models. Ferrari will unveil its first electric car on October 9th in Maranello, ending the tradition of petrol-powered cars. "It'll be completely different." Galliera noted that the company has been working on EV components for over a decade. Benedetto Vigna, Ferrari's CEO, confirmed this month that the company will continue to produce petrol and hybrid vehicles as well as electric cars. He said the company will launch six new models, including a fully-electric model, this year.
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Can citizen scientists clean up UK's troubled water?
Volunteers test rivers for chemicals Resources are being cut by government agencies Citizen Science aims to improve Waterways Adam Smith The Great UK WaterBlitz was organised by Earthwatch Europe and involved thousands of volunteers testing rivers and lakes in 90 different locations. The charity will analyze the results and send them to the Environment Agency (EA), a government agency responsible for waste management and conservation, and managing water contamination, in an effort to improve the quality of the water. The condition of Britain's rivers and waterways is a scandal. Privatised water companies are widely criticized for pumping raw sewerage into rivers and oceans. In a recent report, the National Audit Office (an independent parliamentary institution) said that water infrastructure would require an estimated investment of 47 billion pounds ($62.5 million) over the next five year to repair infrastructure and clean rivers and seas. "Citizen science can be incredibly powerful in this area." Woods stated that it is a catalyst for meaningful environmental changes - ordinary citizens coming together to create something special in their thousands. Earthwatch Europe also said that it would use the results from the mass tests to hold water companies accountable for failing to keep waterways clean. Earthwatch Europe's last testing blitz, conducted in September, revealed a significant amount of antidepressants and agricultural contaminants, as well traces of stimulants such as nicotine and caffeine. The EA began monitoring these substances based on their findings. DIGNATING Infrastructure Late last year, lawmakers accused companies of prioritizing dividends and bonuses for management over investments, causing critical infrastructure to degrade. In October, Britain’s regulator ordered that water companies refund millions of pounds in customer fees for failing to comply with environmental regulations. Now, water company executives can also be charged with criminal offenses if they violate environmental regulations. Water UK, the company that represents these companies, stated in October that although performance wasn't what it should have been, improvements had been made. Waterways that are dirty can be harmful to wildlife, ecosystems, human health, and other activities like farming and fisheries. Woods said that "more polluted waters require more treatment and we will not know what contaminants to remove if we do not monitor what goes into our rivers." She added that Britain's drinking-water is among the most safe in the world. If we continue to pollute our freshwater systems this might not be the case. Earthwatch Europe, a charity for the environment, and The Rivers Trust report that significant cuts in the EA has made it more difficult to monitor statutory compliance. The National Audit Office reported that funding for EA enforcement activities fell by 80 percent, from 117 millions pounds in 2010 down to 23 million pounds by 2020. The EA stated that it would intensify efforts to hold companies accountable. It tested 4,536 sites in the past year, and is aiming for 10,000 inspections in this year. "LOVE WHERE YOUR LIVE" This blitz is a continuation of the work that Keri and Annette Lloyd already do as non-profits Friends of Bilbrook, in South Staffordshire, central England. They test the water in their local rivers every month for ammonia and other pollutants. The information is then sent to Severn Trent, a water provider, and open data platforms like FreshWater Watch run by Earthwatch Europe. The residents would like to see stronger relationships between the authorities and the residents. They also said that the EA had not sampled the water in Bilbrook since 2022. Keri Lloyd said, "We (use) the old motto of 'love your home'", explaining that they felt the collected data was not being used properly. "We want to value it." The EA stated that there were multiple sampling points near Bilbrook. The site is monitored every five years, with a re-sampling scheduled for 2027. It said, "We are not able to monitor all our sampling points each year." Michelle Walker, the technical director at The Rivers Trust said that citizen science was a valuable resource, particularly as government agencies are cutting budgets. She said that the government no longer collects much data (national) and there are many holes in national data sets. The trust works with other organisations to create national standards for citizen testing. These include methods for monitoring water, fish populations and soil. The EA stated that "we encourage an open approach to the data collection and are collaborating with citizen scientists across the country... but this cannot replace all the other reasons why we monitor." Walker stated that the billions of dollars set aside to monitor combined sewer overflows - pipes that discharge raw sewage in the environment when heavy rain falls - could be used to fund citizen research. She added that a citizen science program would cost only a fraction of the money the EA spends on monitoring, and the amount the water industry will spend to do the same. "You can start engaging people about rivers and they will become advocates for their own river." They start local habitat improvement projects and form groups called Friends of the River. "It will pay for itself many times over."
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Sources say that ADNOC, the UAE's LPG supplier, will supply US LPG in India after China and US tariffs.
Industry sources have confirmed that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will begin replacing some of its liquefied gas supplies to India from June with cheaper U.S. cargoes, as U.S. China tariffs are reshaping global trade flows. ADNOC will be able to ship more LPG from its own production to China. Buyers in China are paying a higher price to replace U.S. supplies after Beijing raised tariffs on U.S. products. This move will also reduce LPG prices for India, which is the No. 2 importer. India imports more than 80% its LPG from the Middle East including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It also sources LPG through annual contracts with Qatar, Kuwait, and Qatar. In the first week of this month, Indian refiners asked Middle East suppliers for a very rare swap: some of their long-term supply was to be replaced with U.S. LPG. Sources said that Indian refiners requested U.S. LPG be delivered at a discount to the Middle Eastern benchmark Saudi Contract Price. ADNOC has, according to sources, agreed to supply U.S. LPG to refiners in India under annual contracts between June and July. They said that the U.S.-China conflict has widened price gaps between Middle Eastern LPG and U.S. LPG. One of the sources stated: "It's difficult to replace all volumes with U.S. LPG." LPG." June Goh is an analyst with Sparta Commodities. She said that India's LPG consumption is mostly for domestic purposes and therefore requires a higher percentage butane. She added, "India can therefore benefit from the diversion but not propane cargoes of U.S. LPG." ADNOC and Indian refiners Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. did not respond to requests for comments. According to data from the government, India imported approximately 60% of its total LPG consumption in 2023/24. This equates to 29,66 million metric tonnes. Yousef SABA in Dubai contributed additional reporting; Florence Tan, Jan Harvey and Jan Harvey edited the article.
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Copper prices rise ahead of National Holiday due to China demand
The price of copper rose on Tuesday due to a combination of factors: a strong yuan, a high demand in China, which is the world's largest consumer, ahead of its holiday in May, and concerns over a tight supply of copper. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.9% at $9,458.50 a metric ton by 1019 GMT. However, it failed to overcome the resistance from its 50-day average of $9489. Arthur Parish, analyst at SP Angel, said: "We're seeing a trend in China of restocking ahead of the May Day holiday." The mainland China market will close on May 1 to celebrate a five-day Labour Day break. Yangshan Copper Premium The price of copper, which is a measure of the demand for imported copper into China, reached its highest level since December 2023 at $93 per tonne. This premium has increased by 6% since last Friday when official data revealed a weekly decline of 32% in copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Alastair Munro is a senior base metals analyst at Marex. He said that the SHFE data for Wednesday will show a further decline. This topic, he added, would be crucial in May. Parish stated that "the restocking requirements were made worse after stocks were redirected to the U.S. from Asia amid the tariff-driven increase in COMEX premiums." Copper stocks in COMEX owned warehouses The Comex premium to the LME benchmark is unusually high at $1,443 per tonne, as Washington continues to investigate possible new U.S. Copper Import Tariffs. Spread between LME Cash Copper and the Three-Month Contract The premium was increased to $30 per ton, up from $16.5 just a week earlier. This indicates that the LME system is also experiencing a tightening of nearby supplies. According to the International Copper Study Group, the surplus on the global copper markets is expected to grow this year from 138,000 tons to 289,000 tons, and will continue next year. The Chinese yuan reached a new one-month high in relation to the dollar on February 2, providing additional support for Chinese purchasing activity. Other London metals saw aluminium rise 1.3% to $2.465 per ton, while zinc rose 1.2% to 2.663, lead increased 0.2% to 1.970, and tin rose 0.5% to 32,155. Nickel fell 0.1% to 15.595. (Reporting and editing by Freya Whiworth; Polina Devitt)
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Burkina Faso will nationalise additional industrial mines: PM
Burkina Faso intends to take over more industrial mines owned by foreign companies, said its Prime Minister, as it seeks to increase its revenue from its natural resources. Burkina Faso, like its neighbours Mali, Niger and Mali, is seeking greater control over their resources. Last year, it revised its mining code and created a new mining company for the state, Societe De Participation Miniere Du Burkina (SOPAMIB). In a late-last-year deal, it used SOPAMIB in order to take control of two industrial mines that were previously owned by Endeavour Mining, a London listed company. In a late-night broadcast of a national television speech, the Prime Minister Jean Emmanuel Ouedraogo announced that the government intended to expand its control over resources. He said that "SOPAMIB had already recovered two mines industrial, Boungou and Wahgnion. This will continue." Investors are worried about the reforms in the mining sector. Burkina Faso’s military-led Government says that changes are needed to maximize revenue and relaunch an economy affected by insecurity. The price of gold has risen over 25% in the past year due to geopolitical unrest and President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies. Burkina Faso has been fighting jihadist militants in the country since 2015. In 2023, it produced more than 57 tons. There are mining companies such as West African Resources Ltd. and IAMGOLD, both of Australia. The new mining code gives priority to national expertise and local providers, as part of a government-led revolution in the way its mineral wealth is managed. Burkina Faso has shifted its focus to Russia in order to increase economic and security cooperation. It granted a licence for industrial mining to Russian miner Nordgold last week. The project is a gold one in the Kourweogo Province of Burkina’s Plateau-Central Region. Ouedraogo stated that existing state-controlled mines have been successful. The National Precious Substances Company collected over eight tons gold in 2024, and more than eleven tons in the first three months of this year. This was primarily due to artisanal mining. He added that the government will also establish a national reserve of gold for the first ever time in its history. He said, "We need to see the benefits of mining and not just the negative effects on the Burkinabe population." (Writing and editing by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Louise Heavens, Joe Bavier and Jessica Donati)
Asia shares remain steady; gold reaches record levels as trade war escalates
Asia shares rose and global markets tried to rebound after a brutal saleoff. Gold reached a new record as an increase in global trade tensions made investors nervous, causing them to flee into safe-haven assets. Stocks in early Asian trading rose as investors were relieved that a U.S. shutdown was unlikely. Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer had said he'd vote to advance a Republican short-term funding bill and signaled his party's support.
U.S. futures for stocks rose in response. The Nasdaq futures were up 0.87%, and the S&P 500 futures were up 0.7%.
The FTSE Futures also gained 0.1% and the EuroStoxx 50 futures rose 0.04%.
Alvin Tan is the head of Asia FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. He said that this news, for today at least, was positive for market sentiment.
MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan, which measures the performance of stocks in that region, traded 0.2% higher. However, it was still on track to drop more than 2% this week as global trade conflicts impacted global stock markets. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he will impose a 200% tariff on imports of European spirits and wine if the EU does not remove the retaliatory duties on American whiskeys and other products which come into effect in the next month.
Vishnu Varathan is the head of Asia ex-Japan macro research at Mizuho. He said that Trump is making it clear that, if someone were to retaliate against him, his counter-escalation would be even more sharp. The latest developments were the catalyst for the steep selloffs on Wall Street, and confirmed that the S&P 500 is in a correction. This comes just one week after Nasdaq also confirmed this.
"I don't think Trump 2.0 is the same as Trump 1.0. Michael Strobaek is the global chief investment officer of Lombard Odier. He said that this time the president appears to be willing to let U.S. stocks and the economy suffer as he implements his "America first" goals.
Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, has benefited from the trade war. The yellow metal hit a record of $2,990.09 per ounce last Friday. The yellow metal was expected to rise 2.6% this week.
Japan's Nikkei recovered from early losses and rose 0.12%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained 1% as well, but was on track for a weekly decline of 2.3%. China's CSI300 index of blue-chip stocks advanced by 1.4%, and is expected to increase 0.6% this week.
Dollar Trouble The dollar recovered some lost ground thanks to safe-haven flows on Friday, but it was still not far from recent lows due to fears of an imminent U.S. economic recession.
The euro traded at $1.0841 last, down 0.1%. Sterling fell by 0.05% to reach $1.2944. The fiscal reset plan of Germany, which includes a 500-billion-euro fund for infrastructure as well as sweeping changes in borrowing rules and growth boosters to boost military spending and revive the largest economy in Europe, has given additional support to the euro. The outgoing lower chamber of the German parliament will vote on these measures on 18 March before the formation a new Parliament on 25 March.
Investors will be waiting for further information on the rate outlook, amid the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies on trade and the impact they have on U.S. inflation and growth.
"Our assessment shows that the rate trend is constant, and will continue to be lower." Varathan from Mizuho said that it's a matter of timing.
"I believe that the tariffs won't be a hindrance to the Fed cuts because, even if prices increase, it will still result in a negative shock of demand and the people will not benefit." The dollar last gained 0.3% against yen, at 148.25. However, it was on track for a small weekly loss versus the Japanese currency due to bets that more Bank of Japan rate hikes will occur. Next week, the BOJ will also meet.
Oil prices rose after falling the previous session.
Brent futures increased 0.54%, to $70.26 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 0.6% to $66.66 per barrel.
(source: Reuters)