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MORNING quote EUROPE-Chinese consumers shut up store

A take a look at the day ahead in European and international markets from Wayne Cole.

China has kicked off the week with some uninspiring data as retail sales in November rose just 3.0% y/y, when mean forecasts had actually been for +4.6% y/y. House costs also continued to fall, though commercial output did a minimum of hold up.

Officials continued to broach stimulus, consisting of cuts in bank reserve requirements, but credit information revealed lower borrowing expenses are no aid when no one wishes to invest.

Chinese bond yields hit another record low in response, which has the central bank contacting commercial banks on their positions. In an ill-timed coincidence for the yuan , 10-year yields there posted their most significant weekly drop since 2018, just as longer-dated Treasury yields suffered the biggest weekly increase this year.

There have actually been reports Beijing was considering whether to let the yuan fall to strengthen its economy, but that only drew a. broadside from President-elect Donald Trump's trade advisor. Peter Navarro.

Over in South Korea, the political circumstance looks rather. steadier as Han Duck-soo has taken control of for impeached President. Yoon Suk Yeol and the Constitutional Court started examining the. impeachment. The court has up to 6 months to decide whether to. remove Yoon from office or to reinstate him.

Authorities repeatedly swore to stabilise financial markets,. which saw the KOSPI hold constant on Monday.

All eyes, naturally, are on the Fed conference on Wednesday. where a quarter-point rate cut is 97% priced in, and its. vanishingly rare for the central bank to disappoint such an. frustrating market consensus.

More appealing will be the assistance from Chair Powell and. the FOMC dot plots with markets assuming they will now see only. 3 cuts next year instead of four. The terminal rate could. also increase to 3.0% or more, from 2.875% in September. Markets are. much more hawkish, suggesting a flooring for rates around 3.80%, one. reason bonds took such a pounding last week.

Of the other central bank conferences, the Bank of Japan, Bank. of England and Norges Bank are seen on hold, while the Riksbank. is anticipated to cut and possibly by 50 bps.

Another mover on Monday was bitcoin which surged above. $ 106,000 after Trump floated a plan to develop a U.S. bitcoin. tactical reserve comparable to its strategic oil reserve.

Key developments that might affect markets on Monday:

- Appearances by ECB President Christine Lagarde, Vice. President Luis de Guindos and board member Isabel Schnabel

- PMIs for Europe and U.S.

- Bank of Canada Guv Tiff Macklem speaks

- Empire State Manufacturing Survey for December

(source: Reuters)