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MORNING BID AMERICAS-A swift change to inflation-watch

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe.

As a combative U.S. presidential argument grabs attention, upcoming U.S. inflation numbers have fallen under the background -- but perhaps only temporarily.

After all, the August customer cost inflation report released in the future Wednesday is the last big information release before a much prepared for Sept. 18 Federal Reserve rate choice.

And given that markets still connect a roughly 35% opportunity to an aggressive 50 basis points cut next week (a 25 bps move is totally priced in), the latest numbers have the scope to move traders' rate bets and for that reason wider markets.

Financial experts surveyed forecast a 0.2% month-on-month rise in both the heading and core consumer price index, with the heading annual measure anticipated to be up to 2.6% in August from 2.9% in July.

That would be the lowest yearly inflation number because March 2021 and might cement expectations for a modest rate cut next week, which could support the dollar.

For Deutsche Bank financial experts, rental inflation is one to watch as there was a surprise rise in July, so the concern is whether this was a one-off or not.

Ahead of the CPI release, markets appear to be taking their hint from Tuesday's debate between Democratic prospect Kamala Harris and Republican competing Donald Trump - after which pop megastar Taylor Swift said she would elect Harris.

U.S. Treasury yields are lower, while the dollar (and. bitcoin) along with U.S. stock futures are broadly softer, in. what is seen as a signal from markets that the dispute has actually offered. Harris an edge ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Following the argument, online betting site PredictIt revealed. Harris' odds of winning enhancing 3 cents to 56 cents for a $1. payment, while Trump's opportunities dropped 5 cents to 47 cents.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 3.605%, its most affordable. because June 2023, while the dollar was at 141.68 yen .

Budget forecasters' estimates so far recommend Trump's agenda. would pile on more new federal debt.

A sale of 10-year Treasuries later on Wednesday should use. a taste of investor hunger for U.S. government debt.

Bank stocks could likewise remain in focus a day after falling. sharply.

The Fed's regulative chief on Tuesday outlined a plan to. raise huge banks' capital by 9%, considerably alleviating an earlier. proposal after intense Wall Street opposition but frustrating. bank investors and some critics of the rule.

That coincided with some downbeat remarks from the banking. sector-- on Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase tempered. expectations about earnings from interest payments and late. Monday, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon stated trading. earnings could fall 10% this quarter.

In Europe, on the other hand, Italy's UniCredit stated on. Wednesday it had actually obtained a 9% stake in Commerzbank and will. look for approval to potentially buy more, in a relocation that raised the. prospect of CEO Andrea Orcel preparing to take control of the German. loan provider.

Secret advancements that might provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:

* U.S. August CPI

* U.S. 10-year Treasury auction

(source: Reuters)