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As energy prices rise, inflation fears are stoked.

Investors worried about inflation and a new wave of interest rate increases were prompted by renewed fighting in the Middle East, which boosted oil prices.

Japan's benchmark?10-year? has hit 3% for a first time in generations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield, which is used as a benchmark to determine prices in all asset classes, broke resistance at 4.75% and now stands at 4.78%, its highest level since early 2025.

The futures market for French and German bonds extended the selling, which drove yields up to 15-year highs. Australia's 10-year bond yield rose at the fastest rate in five months.

Ryutaro kimura, senior strategist at BNP asset management in Tokyo, said that there was a growing sense of resignation, mixed with a hint of helplessness, about the rising interest rates in Japan, which have for many years been a reliable anchor on world markets.

As the Federal Reserve chair Kevin?Warsh resets expectations on rates, higher oil prices and increasing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are fueling inflation fears, which is bad for bonds. Investors are also beginning to demand higher lending premiums due to the skyrocketing debt of sovereigns.

Japan's 10-year loan cost is now at 3%. This is the government's long-term funding cost. So, any increases will put real pressure on sovereign finance, already under strain from Prime Minister Takaichi’s “spend to grow” agenda.

U.S. Futures have remained steady and European Futures have dipped, after Wall Street's modest Monday fall. The mood is nervous as we await Friday's U.S. Jobs data, which could lead to an increase in interest rates as early as this month.

The markets are pricing a rate increase in New Zealand next Wednesday, and in Europe the following week. The odds of a rate hike in Japan and the U.S. this month are better than even.

"I believe that most of the bond sell-off is due to a reassessment in Fed policy," said Andrew Lilley. He's a chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey Investment Bank, based in Sydney.

"I believe the Fed will hike in September, and that it is the beginning of a three-rate cycle minimum."

SHEIN FADES, BRENT TOPS $91,

The Nikkei 225 index of Japan struggled to make any progress and the rate selloff hit equities that are sensitive to housing in Australia such as retailers and banks, due fears of a real estate downturn spreading with every increase in borrowing costs.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1% as the debut of clothing company Shein Global set a weak tone. Shein Global shares fell 8%, leaving its market value at less than one-quarter of where it peaked pre-listing in 2022.

The conflict in the Middle East has made the energy outlook uncertain. Brent futures have topped $91 per barrel, and Europe's standard gas price ended summer at a 3-1/2 year high with stocks at seasonal record lows.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has warned of further strikes after a 'first exchange of fire within a month.' Meanwhile, increased fighting between Russia and Ukraine is pushing wheat prices to three-year-highs.

The rise in borrowing costs is global and has only provided limited support for the U.S. Dollar.

The dollar remained at 159.76 yen to the euro, while the euro remained at $1.1619. In Europe, preliminary inflation figures will be released later Tuesday.

(source: Reuters)