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Asia markets reach record highs on AI euphoria and Iran peace hopes
In the morning of Wednesday, the Asian session, stocks soared, oil prices fell and the dollar dropped after U.S. president Donald Trump hailed "great progress" toward a "final deal" with Tehran, while momentum for AI-driven trading accelerated. Trump said he would temporarily pause an operation of escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz carries a fifth of all global oil, and Iran has blocked it since late February. This has triggered a global energy shortage. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $108.51 per barrel on the news, while S&P500 e-minis futures rose 0.3%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 2.3%, setting a new record. The surge was led by the 5.1% increase in South Korea's Kospi which cleared the 7,000-mark for 'the first time'. Analysts from Westpac stated that "markets have embraced a calm and stable environment overnight. The risk of an escalation of the Middle East conflict has been reduced after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made sure the ceasefire remained in place despite U.S. trading blows with Iran yesterday." This boosted risk sentiment and supported a recovery in stocks across the U.S., Europe, at the same as crude oil prices "partially unraveled yesterday's rise." The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit new records on Wall Street on Tuesday. Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone Group Ltd. in Melbourne. "Investors continue to add to their positions in 2026 winners," he said. There has been some purchasing in S&P500 materials stocks. However, it is tech stocks that continue to attract the majority of flows. This includes Apple and memory plays. Samsung Electronics, which reopened the Seoul stock market after a long holiday, jumped by 12%. It now has a market capitalization of $1 trillion, surpassing Berkshire Hathaway, and is closing in on Walmart. Rushil Khanna is the head of equity investments in Asia for Ostrum, an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers. He said that "this capex will lead to the creation of material value in Asia, as we are the providers of the 'picks and shovels' for the AI ecosystem." The shares of Advanced Micro Devices rose 16.5% during extended trading on Tuesday as the company announced second-quarter revenues above Wall Street expectations. This was aided by strong demand for its dead-centre chip as cloud computing companies increase spending on AI infrastructure. The?U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, snapped a three-day winning streak. It slipped 0.1% to 98.236. The dollar index, which measures greenback strength against six currencies, ended a three-day streak of gains, slipping 0.1% to 97.236. The dollar was $1.1724, and the pound sterling $1.3577. Both were up 0.3% on this day. The Australian dollar was trading at $0.7227. It rose about 0.6% to the highest level since June 2022. This was due to improved risk appetite, and a third consecutive interest rate hike that took place a day before. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was unchanged at 4,424%. Gold rose 1.2% to $4,609.59. Bitcoin was down by 0.9% to $80,881.12 while ether fell 1% to $2,358.09. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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Oil prices drop by over $2 after Trump suspends Strait opening to possible deal
?U.S. Oil futures dropped on Wednesday morning by over $2 after U.S. President?Donald Trump announced that an operation to reopen Strait of Hormuz would be paused temporarily to determine if an agreement could?be finalised. As of 2326 GMT, U.S West Texas Intermediate fell $2.23 or 2.18% to $100.04 a barrel. Trump stated on Tuesday that while the operation to reopen?the Strait?of Hormuz would be paused,?the?blockade would?remain? in force. WTI fell 3.9% on Tuesday, after the ceasefire was maintained despite reports of exchanges. Brent dropped 4% and closed at $109.87. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday, which showed that U.S. crude inventories had?fallen for the third consecutive week. Gasoline and distillate stock also 'declined. Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity said that crude stocks dropped by 8.1 million barges in the week ending May 1. The sources reported that gasoline inventories dropped by 6.1 million barrels and distillate stocks by 4.6 million barrels in comparison to a previous week. Helen Clark (Reporting; Chris Reese, Editing)
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South Korean consumer inflation in April is highest for nearly two years due to Iran war
As expected, the increase in South Korea's consumer price in April was the fastest in almost two years. The surge in oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict fueled the rise. Data from the government showed that the consumer price index increased 2.6% in April compared to a year ago, after increasing 2.2% in March. This was in line with the median poll forecast and marked the largest year-on year increase since July 2024. According to the Ministry of Data and Statistics, the index increased 0.5% from last month after increasing?0.3% the month prior. Prices of petroleum products rose 7.9% and international airfares jumped 13.5%. The South Korean government has set nationwide fuel price limits, which are reducing inflation pressure. Chun Kyu -yeon is an economist at Hana Securities. Chun stated that "however, for the moment, the trend of rising prices will continue to be valid, since there is a growing possibility of service inflation due to factors such as airfare increases." Even after the Bank of Korea's policy measures, the deputy governor said that it was time to consider raising interest rates. In March, the nation-wide fuel price cap was introduced for the first time since nearly 30 years. The next meeting of the Bank of Korea, which kept interest rates unchanged last month amid increased uncertainty about the Iran War, will be held on May 28.
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Suncor's profits surpass expectations as increased production offsets the oil market turmoil
Suncor Energy, Canada's largest energy company, beat Wall Street estimates for the first quarter adjusted profit on Tuesday. This was largely due to higher production and throughput volumes. Geopolitical unrest and volatility of global oil prices dominated the?quarter. Prices have risen by more than 87% in this year alone after the U.S./Israeli war against Iran damaged supply chains?and key energy infrastructure. Canadian oil and gas producers have steadily increased output while reducing costs. Suncor, and its peers have outperformed global competitors amid macro-uncertainty due to years' worth of investment. Suncor's quarterly upstream?production increased to?875,000 barrels a day (bpd), from 853,000 bpd one year earlier. The refinery's throughput increased by 15,000 bpd, to 498,000 bpd in the third quarter. Its utilization rate was 97%. Canadian producers benefited from capacity increases and higher nameplate capacities in the refining networks. The company has lowered its refinery usage guidance from?99%-102% to 90%-93%, but kept the throughput guidance at 460,000-475,000. Suncor also increased its projected share repurchases of over 30%, and anticipates buying back $4 billion worth of shares by 2026. According to data compiled LSEG, the Calgary-based company reported an adjusted profit per share of C$1.93 (US$1.42) for the 'quarter ended March 31. This compares with analysts' average estimates of C$1.79, according to LSEG.
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Distributors push back against the Petrobras-Vale agreement that has seen direct diesel sales increase in Brazil.
After Petrobras, the state-run oil company, signed a contract with Vale, fuel distributors reacted by reducing their sales. Distributors group 'Sindicom' sent letters to oil regulator ANP and were seen by them. They said direct fuel sales from producers create competitive distortions. The group includes distributors like Vibra, Raizen, and Ultrapar. Sindicom claimed that, unlike distributors of the RenovaBio program, such producers are not required by law to purchase CBios (carbonization credits), also known as CBios. Currently, only distributors are required to purchase them. ANP, in a document seen by us, reported that the direct sales of Diesel B (blended biodiesel) to large consumers were 22.39 millions liters, up from 1.1million liters the previous quarter. ANP confirmed the figures when asked for comment but stated that it would not reveal which manufacturers made the sales "for reasons of competition". Petrobras is Brazil's main diesel producer. Petrobras announced in January that it had reached an agreement with?Vale for the supply of diesel to?the miner?s operations located in Minas Gerais. ANP reports that Minas Gerais purchased 19.49 million liters (nearly 90%) of the diesel directly from producers reported between January and march. In one of the letters Sindicom sent to ANP, it said that "as producers aren't obligated agents in RenovaBio the direct sale by these agents of fossil fuels to large consumers takes place in asymmetrical manner in comparison with distributors." Petrobras stated that it constantly evaluates the possibility of direct sales to large customers, always in compliance with current legislation. It did not confirm the volume sold. Vale stated that the agreement between Petrobras and Vale is subject to confidentiality clauses. The miner did not reveal the purchased quantities. According to statements made by previous executives, Petrobras was seeking to sell fuels directly to large consumers. This strategy would allow Petrobras to gain a greater?share of market and be closer?to the end customer in a more profitable manner. The state-owned firm's executives have claimed that they lost contact with the end consumer after the sale of BR Distribuidora – now Vibra – in 2019. (Reporting and writing by Marta Nogueira, Fernando Cardoso, David Gregorio).
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Ameren's quarterly profits rise as infrastructure investments boost returns
Ameren, the utility company, reported a?23% increase in its first-quarter profits on Tuesday. This was primarily due to earnings from infrastructure investments that aimed to improve reliability. Utility companies are increasing spending on transmission and delivery networks to meet the rising demand for power in 'the U.S. Electric segment revenue rose by?2.4% in the quarter to $1.66?million, while revenue from the gas segment grew by?8.4% to $515?million. Ameren reported that its net income for the quarter ended March 31 rose to $357 million or $1.28 a share. This is up from $289 millions or $1.07 a share compared to a year earlier. St. The?St. The?Missouri division's quarterly results were negatively affected by lower retail electricity sales and higher interest costs, due to increased borrowing for infrastructure projects. Ameren 'Missouri reported a?electric?sales figure of 9,031 kilowatt-hours, down from 9,421 kilowatt-hours last year. This is due to the warmer than normal winter. Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois, its rate-regulated utility subsidiary companies, serve?about 2.5?million electricity customers and?more than 900?000 natural gas customers over a 64,000-square mile area. (Reporting and editing by Arunima Kumna and Sumit Saha, Bengaluru)
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US gasoline prices reach $4.50 per gallon as the summer driving season approaches
GasBuddy data showed that the U.S. average retail price of gas in the United States surpassed $4.50 a galon on Tuesday, for the first time since July 20, 2022. The U.S.-Israeli conflict?with _Iran? was disrupting a significant portion of the global oil supply shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Memorial Day Weekend and the peak driving season of summer are approaching. As President Donald Trump and Republicans campaign for November's midterm elections, rising pump prices present a serious political risk. Analysts say that without a de-escalation of the Middle East, U.S. motor oil prices could surpass previous records. As of 5:20 pm, the national average gasoline price was $4.52 per gallon. GasBuddy's data shows that the price of gasoline in the U.S. was $4.52 per gallon on Tuesday. Prices reached $4 late in March, the highest level since August 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. GasBuddy's data shows that California has the highest average price at the pump in the United States, $6.14 per gallon. On fears that the Gulf War will continue, gasoline prices have risen along with crude oil futures. Brent crude, the global benchmark for crude oil prices has risen 58% since war began. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan stated that the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to push up oil and gasoline prices. However, we've seen refinery issues which have exacerbated some of these increases. Last week, BP's 440,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Whiting, Indiana, experienced a brief power outage that caused one of its processing units to be shut down. The company has since reported that operations have been restored. De Haan stated that "if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open, I expect gas prices to stay over $4.50 per gallon this summer." Before U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran, February 28, approximately?20% global oil supplies were passing through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Morgan Stanley stated that U.S. gas inventories are?drawing quicker than the normal seasonal pattern. The base case indicated that stocks would fall below 200 million barrels in late August, close to historic summer lows. EIA data shows that U.S. gasoline inventories fell by over 6 million barrels in the last week, and were at 222.3 millions barrels on April 24. This was the lowest level since December, and more than 2,000,000 barrels below seasonal averages for the past five years. The data show that gasoline demand reached 8.95 million barrels based on a four week average, an increase of 1% compared to the same period last year. Morgan Stanley said that the?demand remained stable despite pump prices of $4 or more. It is not driving draws, but it's not soft enough for the supply-driven stocks to slow down. U.S. gasoline contracts were hovering around $3.64 per gallon on Monday, their highest price since 2022.
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Iranian media reports three dead in fire at a shopping centre west from Tehran
Iranian media reported that at least?three people were killed and 26 injured after a fire broke out in a shopping center west of Tehran. IRIB, Iran's national broadcaster, cited the?fire departments as saying that the?fire had been "largely contained". Fars, a semi-official news agency, reported that the cause of the incident is still unknown. Iranian media, including Fars showed a video of a plume of heavy smoke rising out of the site. The location of buildings, utility poles and trees, and the road layout matched the satellite and archive imagery. Fire broke out after a renewed 'fire exchange' between Iran and the United States on Monday.
Oil prices drop as investors are encouraged by positive earnings
The global stock market rose on Tuesday as investors took heart from a series of robust earnings. Meanwhile, simmering hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz between the U.S.A. and Iran kept oil prices well above $100 per barrel.
The yen was also on traders' minds after it briefly jumped during the previous session. This fueled speculation about another round of Tokyo intervention.
The STOXX 600 index rose 0.5% in Europe. This was boosted by Anheuser-Busch shares, which surpassed expectations with their first-quarter results. Also, Unicredit, an Italian lender, reported record quarterly profits.
On Monday, the U.S. launched new attacks on the Gulf as it fought for control of the Strait of Hormuz through dueling maritime blockades. This came shortly after U.S. president Donald Trump launched an effort to move stranded oil tankers and other vessels through this vital energy-trade chokepoint.
Maersk announced that the Alliance Fairfax - a U.S. flagged vehicle carrier operated by Farrell Lines - left the Gulf on Monday via the Strait of Hormuz, accompanied by U.S. Military assets.
Oil prices, which have been slipping below the $115 per barrel high of Monday, have given some relief to stocks and other risky assets.
The renewed hostilities still shook the markets and reminded us that the Middle East war is far from over.
On the oil market, Brent crude futures dropped 1.3% to $112.93 per barrel and U.S. crude fell 2.3%, both having risen in the previous session due to increased concerns about supply disruption.
The markets may be relieved today after?President Trump said overnight that the conflict could last another two or three weeks. Markets are likely to be sceptical, however, due to the recent escalation of hostilities and the repeated extension of projected timelines since the conflict started," ING's head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson stated.
S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows that 83% of S&P500 companies have surpassed EPS estimates, and 78.2% have beaten revenue expectations. LSEG data indicates that earnings growth in the S&P 500 will now top 18% for?the first three months, up from an estimate of 12.8% a month earlier.
Nasdaq and S&P futures both rose by 0.6%, suggesting that the market is recovering from Monday's negative closing.
Jeff Buchbinder is the chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. He said: "Without signs of slowing, AI-driven expenditure will continue to do the heavy lifting in terms of S&P 500 earning growth, led by technology."
YEN INTERVENTION WORT
After Monday's brief surge, the?yen has been stable at 157.26 dollars after reaching an intraday peak of 155.69.
Satsuki Katayama, Japanese Finance Minister, spoke Monday against speculative foreign exchange trading. Market participants are on high alert for any further intervention. Sources say Tokyo intervened on Thursday to support?its ailing currencies.
Abbas Keshvani is Asia Macro Strategist for RBC Capital Markets. He said that authorities may intervene again, if the dollar/yen keeps testing 160, which they have historically protected. In 2022, Tokyo fired "three volleys" of intervention within a few week.
"We believe that the?intervention is merely a way to keep a lid on USD/JPY and not a catalyst for protracted yen strengthening," he stated. The Australian dollar traded at $0.7161 last, after Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates on Tuesday for the third time in this year, a move that was widely anticipated. Spot gold, meanwhile, rose 0.7%, to $4,553, above the low of $4,500 on Monday, which was the lowest level since March 31. (Reporting and editing by Rae Wee, Muralikumar Aantharaman, William Maclean; Reporting by Christopher Cushing)
(source: Reuters)