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Stocks are shaky after Israeli attacks on Lebanon test ceasefire with Iran

Asian stocks rose early on Friday, but gains were limited as traders questioned whether the U.S. and Iran?ceasefire this week would last. They also remained cautious about fragile hopes for peace talks between Israel and Lebanon. Investors became nervous when Iran cited the ongoing attacks by Israel on Lebanon as one of its main sticking points in its agreement with America.

MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.5%. The South Korean Kospi led the way with a 1.9% increase. Japan's Nikkei added 1.5% while S&P500 e-minis futures traded flat after reversing earlier losses.

The U.S.-Iran truce led to a sharp rise in Asian markets, but yesterday the risk-on attitude was tested," said Rupal garwal Asia quant strategist for Bernstein in Singapore.

She said: "We think this could be the start of the end, and it's an opportunity for investors who want to focus on fundamentals and trends from before the war." "We recommend adding some beaten-down stocks back."

The S&P 500 gained 0.6% on Thursday. MSCI's global equity benchmark also made modest gains. This was after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly said that he wanted direct talks with Beirut a day after the most devastating bombardment in the war, which killed over 300 people in Lebanon, and put the U.S. Iran ceasefire 'in danger.

Brent crude jumped 1% to $96.63 a barrel after trading resumed in Asia. Hezbollah fired a missile towards Israel, which triggered air?raid? sirens across the country, including in Tel Aviv.

The Strait of Hormuz is largely closed for shipping. Marine traffic was well below 10% of its normal volume on Thursday, as Tehran asserted control of this strategic waterway which typically transports one-fifth of all global oil and gas shipments.

Oil prices soared and energy supply was tightened as a result of the closure of the Strait during the six week Iran War.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, issued a stern warning. In a Truth Social post, he stated that Iran is doing a "very bad job" in allowing oil through the Strait. "That's not the agreement that we have!" He wrote to emphasize Washington's frustration at the intensifying market turmoil.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.1% to 98.92 after data released on Thursday showed that weekly jobless claims increased 16,000?to 219,000, and continuing claims?fell 38,000?to 1.794?million, the lowest since May 2024.

The Core PCE Price Index also increased 0.4% for the second consecutive month, reflecting an increase year-on-year of 3.0%.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was up by 0.6 basis points at 4.285%.

Fed funds futures indicate traders are bringing forward expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points to April 2027. According to the CME Group's FedWatch, the implied probability that the U.S. Central Bank will remain on hold during its April 2027 meeting has dropped to 49.6% from 64% last Thursday.

Investors have requested to withdraw more than 15 percent of their assets from Carlyle’s flagship private-credit interval fund. The group announced this in a letter to shareholders on Thursday.

Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $71,903.27 while Ether was 1.0% down at $2,191.81. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter)

(source: Reuters)