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Stocks fall as the dollar increases after Powell's Fed; Europe gains in defence after Trump's Ukraine remarks

The dollar grew after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell failed to confirm investors' expectations of U.S. rates falling sharply in the coming months.

After U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he believes Ukraine can retake the land it has been occupied by Russia in a dramatic shift of rhetoric, in favour of Kyiv, European defence stocks rose. After seeing the economic trouble that the war is causing Russia I believe Ukraine with the support from the European Union is in a good position to fight and win all of Ukraine in its original state," he wrote in a post on social media. However, there were no signs of a change in U.S. policies.

Defence stocks like Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, and SAAB rose between 2 to 4.8%. However, losses in the financial sector kept the STOXX600 down by around 0.4% for the day. Trump, in a somewhat rambling speech at the U.N. General Assembly where he rejected allies' attempts to recognize a Palestinian State, criticized Western nations over their approach to immigration and climate change, telling leaders, "Your countries are going into hell."

Investors focused on Wednesday on the U.S. economic outlook and the path that interest rates are likely to take in the U.S.

The dollar rose, with the euro, pound, and yen all in negative territory. This pushed the U.S. Dollar up by 0.35% against a basket that included six other currencies.

Powell's remarks on Tuesday were largely in line with the language used by the central bank last week, when it cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Powell was attempting to emphasize the need for policymakers in the future to balance competing risks such as high inflation and an eroding jobs market.

Powell's comments were not very exciting for the markets, given that traders have already priced in a rate reduction in October.

Chris Scicluna, economist at Daiwa Capital, said: "We'll need to wait and see the pace of the cuts."

He said that "all markets, whether you are looking at the fixed income side or the equity, take comfort in the expectation that Fed will ease for the remainder this year and next year, and they basically move from a restricting stance to a non-restrictive stance."

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that traders have increased their bets for further rate cuts in the United States. Fed funds futures now indicate a 91.9% probability of a rate reduction at the central banks October meeting. This is up from an 89.8% chance on Tuesday.

The longer-dated U.S. Government bonds attracted buyers. This pushed the yield on 30-year Treasury Bonds down by 2.1 basis point on the day, to 4.717%. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year bond eased 1.4 basis points to 4.106%, and the rate sensitive two-year yield remained at 3.565%. The U.S. economy data released Tuesday has stoked concerns about growth. S&P Global's purchasing managers' index data shows that business activity in the U.S. slowed down for a second consecutive month in September.

Citi analysts stated in a note that "the S&P PMIs are softer than the preliminary September release but remain in expansion, and both are within the ranges of the past few months." They said that the details were weaker than the headlines.

Analysts said that the composite output price index had fallen to its lowest level since April. Anecdotes indicate that companies are finding it difficult to pass on higher costs to customers due to a weaker demand and increased competition.

Gold, a commodity, bucked the trend of a stronger dollar and rose 0.25% to $3,772 per ounce on Wednesday, just below the record high set Tuesday at $3,790. Brent crude oil rose 0.3% at $67.86 per barrel after an agreement to resume exports out of Iraq's Kurdistan fell through. This helped calm investor fears that a restart could exacerbate global oversupply.

(source: Reuters)