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A one-two-payrolls tariff sucker-punch?

Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets

Investors hold their nerves as they await the U.S. Jobs Report that is expected to show a sluggish labour market, but one that has not yet collapsed. Meanwhile, markets prepare for a Supreme Court ruling regarding President Donald Trump's tariffs on global products.

The 'prospect' of the ruling, that could be announced as soon as Friday, left the markets in a cautious mood. The U.S. Dollar stood tall, and stocks struggled to find direction.

Oil prices are at their highest level in two weeks due to geopolitical tensions, but global defence stocks have been boosted by Trump's call for an increase in defence spending.

The court decision will likely grab the spotlight and could spark a bout of severe volatility, after the sweeping tariffs shocked global markets last year. It's still notable that the markets were able to quickly recover from the initial shock of the tariffs and move higher.

After the November 'arguments,' both conservative and liberal justices voiced doubts about whether Trump had the authority to levy tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

A potential battle over the possibility of a $150 billion refund from the U.S. for importer duties paid already looms. The question is what will happen to the numerous trade agreements that were announced with great fanfare in the past year.

The December employment report will give the markets the most accurate picture of the U.S. labor market, but it may not be sufficient to calm investor concerns about interest rates this year.

The markets are pricing in two rate cuts this year, while a Federal Reserve deeply divided indicated only one. The Fed is expected to hold steady on rates later this month, according to traders.

The report will shed light on the "no-hire, no-fire" mode that economists and policymakers call.

A mega deal is brewing in the corporate world after Rio Tinto announced that it was in negotiations with Glencore to create the largest mining company on the planet, valued at nearly $207 billion.

Rio Tinto and Glencore both said that they expected a buyout of all shares of Glencore, but very little information was disclosed.

The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday.

Economic events: German retail sales for November and German trade data for December

(source: Reuters)