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Stocks surge ahead of US employment report and tariff ruling

Global stocks edged up on Friday, ahead of an important U.S. report. Investors also awaited the Supreme Court's ruling on President Donald Trump’s global tariffs which shocked markets last year.

Geopolitical tensions around the world have boosted oil and defence stocks. Traders will continue to be concerned about developments in Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland. The U.S. Supreme Court's possible ruling on tariffs will dominate Friday's news.

The reduction of tariffs may impact U.S. revenue, driving Treasury yields up and causing new waves in volatility.

Kyle Rodda is a senior financial markets analyst with Capital.com. He said that the Supreme Court's ruling on Friday was the "real wildcard". He said that if the courts overturn U.S. Tariffs, this would boost market sentiment.

"A constraint could be that the Trump administration will not 'roll over' even if tariffs are declared illegal. They may look for other ways to maintain levies."

For the moment, traders are reluctant to bet on market events.

Last week, the Stoxx 600 index in Europe was up around 0.4%. The major regional indices are in positive territory. The French CAC 40 is up around 0.6%.

Fast Retailing 9983.T (the operator of Uniqlo) is the company that has boosted the Nikkei.N225 by 1.6% in Asia.

S&P 500 (.SPX) ended Thursday flat, but the aerospace and defense index.SXPARO climbed to a record high. European defence stocks also hit a new all-time high. S&P futures EScv1 rose 0.1%, indicating a modest increase at the opening later.

US JOBS REPORT DECK

The December U.S. Jobs Report will also be a key topic of discussion, following a series of data releases on the labour market earlier in this week.

"On the positive side, there's no sign of a recession on this labour market. That's a good thing. There is also no indication of a strong acceleration on the subdued front. Samy Chaar is chief economist at Lombard Odier. He said that this was consistent with an economy growing moderately. There's no sign of overheating or growth above potential.

The JOLTS report on hirings and ADP's private sector payrolls released earlier this week showed that employment in the largest economy in the world is slowing down.

We want to see the JOLTs, the ADP and the claims we received yesterday confirmed today. "We don't want an upward surprise in the unemployment rate, or job creation," Chaar stated.

Currently, the markets expect two rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in this year. This expectation could be reduced if the monthly employment report is strong.

A survey by economists estimates that nonfarm payrolls increased by 60,000 jobs in December after recovering by 64,000 jobs in November. In October, the economy lost 105,000 positions, which is the biggest drop in almost five years. Most of these jobs were taken by federal employees who deferred their buyouts.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes US10YT=RR remained at 4,189%, after increasing 4.5 basis points in the previous day. The dollar index, which measures six currencies against the U.S., was hovering around a month-high.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Thursday that he expects Trump to make a quick decision on who will replace Jerome Powell when the Fed Chair's term ends in May. Markets are expecting Trump to appoint someone dovish.

The oil prices rose on Friday to their highest weekly level since late October. Investors were concerned about the situation in Venezuela, and also worried about supplies coming from Iraq, Iran and Russia. In a Friday social media post, Trump announced that he had cancelled the previously anticipated second wave of attacks against Venezuela due to its cooperation.

Two sources said that foreign embassies are preparing for a visit next week by representatives of American and European oil companies.

Brent futures LCOc1 fell 0.23% to $61.85 per barrel but are still on track for a gain of nearly 2% a week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) CLc1 fell 0.16% to $57.68 per barrel. (Reporting from Sophie Kiderlin, London. Ankur Banerjee contributed additional reporting from Singapore. Editing was done by Shri Navaratnam and Amanda Cooper.

(source: Reuters)