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Stocks wait for the jobs report and tariff ruling

The dollar strengthened on Friday ahead of an important jobs report. Investors braced themselves for the Supreme Court's ruling on the legality President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, which shocked markets last year.

The smoldering geopolitical tensions around the world have boosted oil prices as well as?as?defence stock, and traders will continue to weigh developments in Venezuela after U.S. troops captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro Saturday.

The possible U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariffs will dominate Friday's news. If the tariffs are removed, it could have a negative impact on government revenue. This would push Treasury yields up and create new waves of volatility in markets.

Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said that the Supreme Court's ruling on Friday was the "real wildcard". If the courts overturned U.S. Tariffs, this would be a huge boost for the market.

"A constraint could be that the Trump administration will not give in to the demands of the courts, and instead look for other ways to maintain levies."

Traders are still hesitant to make bets before the events that will move the markets. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fluctuated between gains and losses, and was down by 0.2%. This is just below its record high from earlier in the week. European stock futures increased by 0.34%.

Fast Retailing (the operator of Uniqlo) reported strong earnings, and the Nikkei gained 1.5%.

S&P 500 closed flat on Thursday. However, the aerospace and defense index reached a record high. European defence shares also hit a new high. S&P futures were unchanged in the?Asian hour.

U.S. JOBS RELEASE ON DECK

Data from the United States on Thursday revealed that demand for labor remained low, and businesses were able to squeeze more out of their existing workforce. This has heightened interest in Friday's report on employment. The report will likely show that the labour markets are stuck in a mode economists and policymakers call "no fire, no hire".

A survey by economists estimates that nonfarm payrolls increased by 60,000 last month, after recovering by 64,000 jobs in November. The economy lost 105,000 positions in October. This was the biggest drop in almost five years. Most of these were federal employees who deferred their buyouts.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates at least twice this year. However, a divided Federal Reserve indicated only one rate cut in December. At its meeting in this month, the Fed is expected keep rates unchanged.

Rodda said that the markets would need to be sparked by a large surprise on the downside from the jobs report. A solid print will reassure investors that U.S. employment is in good shape and a small miss will only increase the chances of further rate cuts.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes was 4.177%, up 4.5 basis points from the previous session. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. unit against six other currencies) hovered at a month-high against major currencies.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Thursday that he expected Trump will make a quick decision on who will replace Jerome Powell when the Fed chairman's term expires in May. Markets expect the president to name a dovish nominee.

The oil prices continued to rise?on Friday. They were near their two-week high, as investors worried about the situation in Venezuela, and also worried about supply from Russia, Iraq, and Iran.

Two sources said that foreign embassies are arranging visits to Venezuela for next week, which will include representatives of U.S. oil companies and European oil firms. This follows Washington's announcement about a $2 billion deal for oil and the supply to Venezuela of U.S. goods.

Brent futures increased 0.8%, to $62.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil also rose 0.8%, to $58.25. (Reporting and editing by Michael Perry, Shri Navaratnam and Ankur Banerjee from Singapore)

(source: Reuters)