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FOCUS: Rio Tinto's bid to buy Glencore puts pressure on BHP

Rio Tinto's plans to acquire Glencore, and thus create a global leader in the mining industry, could spur consolidation efforts throughout the copper-hungry sector, and put pressure on BHP to react. The 'bid' could be among the top 10 M&A transactions ever, depending on the final price. It reflects the appetite for scale, which bankers say could lead to mega-deals by 2026.

Mark Kelly, CEO of advisory firm MKI Global said, "This is another example that mining is consolidating, and big firms are forced to take corporate action to generate value." Anglo American, a London-listed company, announced in September last year what was at the time the second largest M&A deal for that sector. The plan was to merge with Canada’s Teck Resources, and create a global heavyweight focused on copper. The deal is awaiting regulatory approval.

BHP is under pressure to act, say some analysts

BHP's $161 billion market capitalisation is most likely to sabotage Rio's talks with Glencore. This could result in a company worth almost $207 billion.

BHP may look at another deal if it decides to stay out of current negotiations. Unnamed banking sources said this was the most probable outcome, as the company believes Glencore's portfolio to be too diverse, and that asset sales would benefit the company. To ease competition concerns, regulatory authorities would most likely require some dispositions.

BHP has declined to comment.

Richard Hatch, an analyst at Berenberg, said that BHP is the most likely to interfere in this deal. BHP, who is primarily interested in copper, could bid to buy Glencore, keeping the copper and selling the rest.

The talks between Rio and Glencore are in a preliminary phase. Rio has until the 5th of February to submit a formal proposal, but this deadline could be extended.

Both sides have failed to reach an agreement in previous talks.

George Cheveley is the Natural Resources Portfolio Manager at Ninety One. Ninety one, a Glencore shareholder, stated that BHP might feel compelled to intervene but may also find it emotionally difficult, given its repeated failures to purchase Anglo American. BHP attempted to buy Anglo American for months in 2024 to try and reinforce its declining dominance in the copper industry. In November of last year, it briefly revived the effort. Sources say that BHP is also preparing to name a new CEO. It will most likely be an internal candidate, who will have to bring about change.

BHP has declined to comment about its CEO succession.

SIZE DOES MATTER AND SO DOES COPPER

Copper is the main reason for mining tie-ups, aside from the desire to scale up and increase margins while containing costs.

Copper is the most cost-effective conductor of electricity.

Mergers can be an advantage because they provide access to assets that are producing, and avoid the long, expensive, and uncertain process of searching for new reserves.

Kelly said, "The copper deal was the real takeaway from this deal and Anglo-Teck. We know that copper is appealing and buyers want to access it." There are alternative targets that could be considered if it fails to bid for Glencore.

Kelly said that "Vale and Freeport will both be on the agenda - but it is unlikely they are for sale."

Analysts say that BHP could decide to do nothing. Kaan Peker is an analyst with RBC. She said that BHP had a better growth profile for copper than the merged Rio/Glencore, so she didn't believe they needed to do anything. "That being said, if this transaction is successful you may get some pressure from shareholders who will ask: 'How did Rio pull it off when you couldn't do the same with Anglo ?'."?' Reporting by Anousha Saoui in London, Clara Denina and Melanie Burton in Sydney. Charlie Conchie contributed additional reporting. Editing by Veronica Brown (and Barbara Lewis).

(source: Reuters)