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Even as the tariff pause is welcome, global investors are preparing for volatility

The dust has settled after a brutal week, tempered by President Donald Trump's tariff suspension. Global investors have made their point loudly and clearly: the market turmoil is here to remain.

Trump announced on Wednesday that he would lower temporarily the heavy duties imposed recently on dozens countries, while increasing pressure on China.

The S&P 500 index jumped nearly 10% on Friday, its largest one-day gain since October 2008. On Thursday, Japanese stocks were up 9% while European shares are set to have their best day since the year 2020.

Analysts and investors said that the de-risking of U.S. market would continue, with investors increasing their exposure to safe havens while reducing their exposure to Wall Street stocks.

Sat Duhra is a portfolio manager with Janus Henderson Investors, Singapore. He said, "The volatility has not ended, the environment is uncertain, and some impacts are irreversible." "We need to be prepared for more volatility on this issue, and trading it on a short-term basis is for traders and not investors."

UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele stated that the rebound in the markets was an opportunity for investors to prepare themselves for a volatile period. This is especially true given the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States - two of the world's largest economies.

While Trump's tariff-free pause has eased fears of a recession, banks still expect a sharp decline in economic growth. The uncertainty surrounding trade levies is likely to affect consumer and business confidence.

Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group said that it was clear that the long-term upward trend for U.S. stock prices has broken. He added that he remains cautious.

The volatility of the stock and bond markets is still higher than it was before Trump's announcement about reciprocal tariffs last week.

The safe-haven Swiss Franc has risen more than 5% so far this month against the US dollar - its best performance since late 2022.

The level of shock has been extreme. We've seen (clients) move their money to more safe strategies like money market funds and high-quality fixed-income, as well as private credit in the past few weeks, which are less correlated with markets," Samuel Rhee said at a press briefing.

SHAKEN

Investors and analysts around the world have pointed out that the sharp drop in U.S. Treasuries this week and the weakness of the dollar are signs that the confidence in the largest economy in the world has been shaken.

In a note released before Trump's speech, analysts at Deutsche Bank said that the market has lost confidence in U.S. assets.

Ian Lance, portfolio manager of investment firm Redwheel London, said that many investors have their clients' equity exposure largely in the U.S.

Investors will consider whether to continue investing in the U.S. because of its high valuations. Then there is policy uncertainty, with someone taking over and changing policy.

Lance stated that he has an underweight position on U.S. shares in the global value strategies he manages.

The U.S., European and Chinese stocks have all fallen by around 5% this year.

Before the tariff pause, Valerie Noel said, "I imagine that some countries are closely watching (the U.S. Tariff Policy) and could accelerate their diversification from U.S. Assets."

Investors said that the expectation of more stimulus coming from Beijing would support Chinese stocks, while others stated that U.S./China Trade tensions will be closely monitored for any triggers to further market turmoil.

Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, up from 104% that was imposed on Wednesday.

"One thing keeps me awake at night is the possibility that a trade conflict could escalate into a monetary war," said Vasileios Gionakis senior economist and strategy at Aviva Investors.

China is the world's second largest foreign debt holder after Japan. The recent sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds has raised fears that Beijing may be tempted to liquidate its Treasury holdings. However, it takes some time for the official figures to reflect this.

(source: Reuters)