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Trump Administration weighs new coal leasing at North Dakota mine
The Trump administration took a major step on Tuesday in leasing new areas for a North Dakota mine that plans to operate until 2045. Why it Matters The publication of an environmental draft analysis of the new lease areas of North Dakota's Freedom Mine aligns with President Donald Trump’s goal of increasing U.S. fossil-fuel production and reviving coal for electricity production. The United States' electricity supply, formerly dominated by coal, is now only about 16 percent, as natural gas and renewable energy are cheaper. By the Numbers Freedom Mine is owned by a NACCO division and produces between 11.5 to 13.5 million tonnes of lignite annually in Mercer County. The company has requested the lease of tracts covering 1,350 acres, which contains approximately 24 million tonnes of mineable coal. The owner of the mine was not immediately available to comment. Key Context Freedom Mine, which supplies coal to Basin Electric Power Cooperative power plants, first applied for the lease of the new areas in 2019. The company submitted an emergency application that would require a portion coal from the new lease area to be mined in three years. Leases consist of a mix of surface land owned by private and federal owners, and subsurface coal. What's Next? The Bureau of Land Management is seeking public feedback on the proposed leasing until May 2. The Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management, a division, is evaluating a variety of options including leasing less land. The assistant secretary of Interior for Land and Minerals must approve the company's modification to its mining plan. (Reporting and editing by Nichola Grroom)
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China to sell its first green sovereign bond Wednesday
China will finalise the long-awaited global green sovereign bonds on Wednesday. This is expected to mark the beginning of a series that will increase its market share at a crucial time. The signal was sent to indicate that the vehicle was ready Last month Top Chinese Finance Ministry officials laid out the detail at a meeting in London with investors on Tuesday. The 6 billion yuan bond ($825 millions) is scheduled to be listed on the London Stock Exchange. Green bonds have grown to a market value of $3 trillion over the past few years. China's state-run firms have made a significant contribution to this growth. However, international investors have been waiting years for the government to act. Director General Yu Hong of the Chinese Finance Ministry and his Deputy, Xing Chaohong, explained that it will be in two parts – one with a maturity of 3 years and another with a maturity date or deadline of 5 years. Both will have fixed rates. The interest rates are expected to be below 2%, but it depends on the demand during formal sales which will be overseen by eight banks in both China and Europe. The size of China has made it a long-anticipated country to issue a global bond. China's plan was finally revealed earlier this year, after British Finance minister Rachel Reeves and Vice Premier He Lifeng met in Beijing to discuss pragmatic co-operation on financial services. China, the largest emitter of climate-warming gases, has stated that it will peak its carbon dioxide emission before 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2060. The Finance Ministry published its framework for green bonds in February. It was described as an attempt to "attract foreign funds to support low-carbon and green domestic development". Climate Change Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation were listed as the five main priorities. An investor who attended the meeting on Tuesday said that the money raised will be used to fund the electric vehicle charging networks and national parks of the country.
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Former world leaders call on EU to maintain a firm stance on climate
Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland, said on Tuesday that a group of former leaders from around the world are urging Europe not to let trade wars or defence spending divert attention away from climate change issues. The Elders, the group created by Nelson Mandela as former South African president, will meet with EU and NATO in late this month to discuss ways to soften upcoming corporate climate disclosure regulations to address concerns about competitiveness. Robinson, Ireland's former president from 1990-97, said that she was concerned about the plans, but that the bloc has an opportunity to seize the leadership of the United States on the fast-growing clean technology market and climate policy in general. She said: "The crisis that has arisen in the United States due to a federal retreat from climate science and everything related is an opportunity for Europe, the United Kingdom and the rest of world." It's important that Europe adheres to its principles and sticks to the green industrial policy. International Energy Agency said that the global market for clean technology such as solar photovoltaics and wind turbines, could grow from $700billion in 2023 to over $2 trillion in 2035. This is close to the value of the crude oil market in the world. Robinson warned Brussels to not let the war between Russia and Ukraine, trade wars or anti-climate rhetoric from U.S. president Donald Trump dictate long-term thinking about climate issues. She also said that many businesses across the EU were willing to and able support the green shift. Robinson will join former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem-Brundtland, international human rights activist Denis Mukwege and others to urge Brussels to take a leadership role in tackling some of the biggest threats to the world. They will encourage the EU to develop a timely climate action plan. The Elders was founded in 2007. They are advocates for peace, justice and human rights, as well as a sustainable world. Former U.N. secretary general Ban Ki-moon, and former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark are members of the group. Reporting by Virginia Furness, London. Editing by Matthew Lewis
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Four missing US Army soldiers found dead in Lithuania
The bodies of a fourth U.S. Army Soldier, along with three other soldiers, have been discovered, U.S. officials and Lithuanian officials announced on Tuesday. Three other soldiers were discovered dead after rescuers found the armoured vehicles of the four missing soldiers near the border to Belarus. The body of a fourth U.S. Soldier, who was in Lithuania for training, has been discovered, wrote Lithuanian President Gitanas Nuseda on social media platform X. He offered condolences. White House Press Secretary Karoline leavitt confirmed the fourth death. She told reporters during a White House briefing that U.S. president Donald Trump and his Administration were praying for the victims and families. Nauseda thanked all those who "helped find the last soldier missing in such difficult conditions." Rescuers had spent days Digging to recover The M88 Hercules armored recovery vehicle was used by the soldiers as part of a training exercise at Pabrade, where U.S. troops have been rotating in since 2019. Reporting by Stine Jacobsen and Steve Holland in Copenhagen, and Gram Slattery and Mark Porter in Washington. Editing by Gareth Jones and Susan Heavey.
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Mercedes denies that it may withdraw cheaper cars from the US
Mercedes-Benz has denied a report published by Bloomberg News Tuesday, which claimed that the automaker had considered withdrawing its lowest models from the U.S. in anticipation of a 25% additional tariff on imports. "This report is without merit. Mercedes-Benz is committed to increasing sales of its high-end vehicles, a spokesperson for the company said in an email in response to this report. Bloomberg reported that the automaker is considering removing more entry-level cars from sale in order to prepare for tariff contingencies. Experts in the industry have warned that tariffs to be implemented on April 3 will likely lead to higher prices for consumers and fewer models available. There is not enough margin to absorb tariff costs, especially when it comes to more affordable vehicles targeted at first time buyers. Mercedes-Benz executives said on a Monday investor call that they were building up their inventory in the U.S. wholesale and dealer levels to be ahead of the tariffs. They also discussed further mitigation measures. Reporting by Gursimran in Bengaluru, and Victoria Waldersee. Writing by Maria Martinez. Editing by Shinjini Ganuli and Jan Harvey.
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Study shows that AI will not kill your business, but it can make it stronger
A study conducted at the European Central Bank Conference found that AI can help a company thrive on the long run if it survives the disruption caused by artificial intelligence. The authors of the study, who used survey data and data from the U.S. Census Bureau for the years 2017-2021, found that early adopters in the manufacturing industry saw their productivity decline as they replaced humans with robots. The findings of the researchers contradict the prevailing narrative that AI increases productivity and "augments", rather than automates, many jobs. Kristina MacElheran, a co-author of the paper and a speaker at the conference, said: "In the short run, we see many pains." She explained that the decrease in productivity was a result of AI interfering on established manufacturing practices such as maintaining low inventories. As time went on, these companies began to outperform their competitors in terms of sales, productivity, and employment, provided they were able to survive the turmoil. McElheran said, "Surviving seems to be part of the issue," a researcher from the University of Toronto. She said that this recovery does not happen in older companies which are also larger and "struggle" to achieve this. McElheran, along with his colleagues, studied a sample of 30 000 firms where AI adoption increased from 7.5% to 9% over the period of study. ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier that between 23% and 29 percent of European workers were highly exposed AI. However, this did not have to herald a 'job apocalypse' because new jobs would be created as old ones were destroyed. (Reporting By Francesco Canepa Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
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Andy Home: Copper market is wary of the US tariffs that will follow.
Since President Donald Trump's February order to investigate U.S. imports of copper, the price of copper has been rising. How long will this last, and how difficult will it be to come down? It's a race to get as much copper through U.S. Customs as possible before tariffs are implemented. Copper tariffs will come, there's no doubt about that. The question is when and at what level? Bets are that the copper levies would be 25 percent, which is the same rate as imposed on steel and aluminum imports. The market believed it had 270-days, which is the maximum time for a Section 232 investigation. It's no longer so sure. The impact of wider reciprocal trade tariffs, due to be announced Wednesday on what Trump has called "Liberation Day", is uncertain. The confusing and conflicting tariff situation has divided market opinion. Some analysts have called for higher copper price, while others warn of an impending crash. 'TRUMP TIME' The CME spot price of copper reached a record high of $5.199 per lb, surpassing its previous peak of $4.199 during the May 20,24 squeeze. The London Metal Exchange cash price only reached $10,100 per ton. This is a far cry from its peak in May 2024 of $10,900. Bloomberg reported that tariffs could be implemented in weeks, not months as expected. This possibility should not have been a surprise. Peter Navarro, White House Trade Advisor, said that at the time the Section 232 announcement was made the investigation would be finished "in Trump's time". The apparent confirmation that "Trump Time" is a thing has left traders confused about the best time to ship physical copper to the U.S. PHYSICAL FLOODS According to Mercuria, up to half a a million tonnes of copper may be headed to the U.S. in order to take advantage of the unprecedented arbitrage opportunities. Will it arrive in time? Physical arbitrage is complicated due to the CME's restrictive list of acceptable delivery brands. Since February's Section 232 declaration, LME stocks have dropped from 258,425 to 106,900 tonnes, and around half the total inventory is now awaiting physical loading-out. The LME's warehouse system is a mix of Chinese and Russian steel, so it's unlikely much of it will reach the U.S. LME stocks are instead diverted to buyers who are willing to exchange the South American brands of copper that dominate the CME list of good-delivery. It may take more time than you think to switch locations and brands in the physical supply chain. BULLS AND BEARS If copper tariffs were to arrive sooner than expected, the pull of copper towards the U.S. could be less strong and last shorter than anticipated. This means that any shortages in other parts of the world will also be less severe than expected. The markets are bracing themselves for the uncertainty that will be caused by the U.S. reciprocal trade tariffs, which are expected to be announced in the coming week. The way micro- and macro-tariffs interact on the copper market has divided opinion. Goldman Sachs remains in the bulls' camp and has maintained its forecasts of LME copper prices for three, six, and twelve months at $9,600 per ton and $10,700. Citi has, on the other hand, cut its short-term forecast of $10,000 per ton to $9,500 and expects an average price of $8,800 for the second half. BNP Paribas is still too optimistic. They predict a price drop to $8,500 a ton as soon as the copper tariffs come into effect and arbitrage trading stops. You're not alone if you have questions about copper. The price outlook is still unclear until Doctor Copper and the rest of the world get more clarity about Trump's tariffs. Do not hold your breath. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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What options does the EU have in response to Trump's tariffs?
The European Commission's President Ursula von der Leyen stated on Tuesday that the European Union has a "strong" plan to retaliate for tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, she preferred a negotiated resolution. Trump's administration imposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum in March, and increased duties on automobiles will come into effect on Thursday. Trump will announce plans on Wednesday for what he calls "reciprocal duties". In 2023, the United States and European Union will have the largest trade relationship in the world, with a combined trading volume of 1.6 trillion euro ($1.7 trillion) worth of goods and service. This is almost 30% of all global trade. According to Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, Washington has more to worry about in a tariff war on goods than Brussels. U.S. imports of goods into the EU will total 334 billion euro by 2024, compared to 532 billion euro of EU exports. Here are some possible EU responses. TARIFFS RETALIATORY The European Commission may propose retaliatory duties on goods. These can only be blocked by a majority of 15 EU members representing 65% or the EU's population. It has already laid out a two-stage response plan to the steel and aluminum tariffs. It says that it will first restore the measures taken in 2018, when Trump first imposed import tariffs for metals. These were later suspended by Joe Biden. The counter-measures were originally due to take effect on Tuesday but were delayed until mid-April by the Commission to give it more time to decide which U.S. products to target. France and Italy, two wine exporters, are concerned about the taxation of bourbon. This comes after Trump had threatened to retaliate by imposing 200% tariffs on European alcohol. The Commission has also drawn up a list of U.S. imported goods, including clothing, meat, dairy products, and wines, worth 21 billion euros. It plans to reduce this to 18 billion euro for the second tranche of tariffs that was originally scheduled to begin in mid-April. The EU has yet to announce what it will do in response either to the new reciprocal taxes or the new automobile tariffs. Anti-coercive Instrument The EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, which entered into force in 2023, gives the bloc a much wider range of options to act against countries who put economic pressure on EU member states to change their policy. The EU can also limit the access of companies from third countries to tenders or affect services or investment. The United States trades goods with the EU at a deficit, but it trades services at a surplus, which includes digital services like those provided by Amazon, Microsoft or Uber. The EU may also limit the protection of intellectual properties rights, restrict financial services companies' access to EU market and hinder companies' ability place agrifood and chemicals in the EU. ACI was first proposed in 2021 to respond to EU criticisms that the Trump Administration and China used trade as a tool for political purposes. According to Lithuanian officials China targeted Lithuania after it allowed Taiwan set up a virtual embassy in Vilnius. The law allows the Commission to investigate possible cases of coercion for up to four month. If the Commission finds that foreign countries' measures are coercive, it will propose this to EU member states, who have eight to ten weeks to confirm its findings. This requires a majority of EU member states, which is a much higher standard than the one required to apply retaliatory duties. Normaly, the Commission will then consult the foreign country in order to stop the coercion. If this fails, it can then adopt EU response measures within six months, which will enter into force within three months. The entire process could take up to a year. $1 = 0.9275 Euros (Reporting and Editing by Peter Graff, Additional Reporting by Leigh Thomas)
MORNING BID EUROPE - Risk assets are trampled under Trump's tariffs for everyone
Trying to stay up-to-date with the latest news on tariffs? This daily news digest provides a quick overview of global trade headlines. Tariff Watch is free. Sign up here. Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The week has started off rocky in Asia, as stocks have fallen across the board due to a rush to risk. Bonds extended their rally while gold reached another record.
The mood was already fragile before the announcement of U.S. Tariffs on Wednesday, but President Trump exacerbated it by telling reporters aboard Air Force One that levies will cover all countries - not just select ones. He is known to make these comments in the early hours of Asia's trading day, when liquidity is low. This causes a lot of waves.
Nikkei was the worst of the lot, with a drop of 3.8%. It was the biggest daily fall in six months. Almost all of Asia ended up in the red. Nasdaq's futures fell 1.3%, and major European stock futures were not far behind.
Analysts were convinced by Trump's apparent indifference towards rising auto prices. Goldman Sachs expects that reciprocal tariffs across all U.S. trade partners will average 15%. Goldman Sachs increased the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession from 20% to 35% in the same note. The "R"-word is now on everyone's lips.
Investors expect this slowdown will outweigh the inflationary effect of tariffs, and push the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis point this year. However, it would take a significant increase in unemployment for such action to be warranted. The markets have 60 bps of ECB easing for this year, and 50 bps of Bank of England easing.
Bond investors were comforted by the thought of this easing and the flight to safety. The yields on ten-year Treasury bonds fell from 4.40% to 4.21% last Thursday, a drop of nearly 4%. The question is whether the rally will continue when the inflation data begin to show the effect of tariffs.
As of now, lower yields are pushing the dollar against the yen and the euro, while the pound and the Euro have also risen. The yields are important, but it could be harder for the US dollar to maintain its status as a safe haven when the White House is at the center of the turmoil.
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
- German retail sales data, CPI and imported prices
Speakers from Riksbank, Norges Bank
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for March
(source: Reuters)