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Chairman of India's NMDC says that the company is exploring coal assets in Indonesia and Australia.
Amitava Mukherjee, chairman of the Indian miner NMDC, said that it is looking for coking coal assets in Indonesia and Australia. Coking coal is a key ingredient used to make iron ore and styrene. India, which is the second largest producer of crude iron and steel in the world, imports 85% of coking coal. More than half of Australia's coking-coal imports are accounted for by the country. Mukherjee stated that the company views this as an opportunity for business. The negotiations (for explorations) are at different stages. Due to confidentiality, he did not reveal the specifics of these discussions. NMDC, a state-owned company, is India's biggest iron ore mining company with four mines in operation across the country. Jayant Acharya, CEO of JSW Steel, had said earlier that day that his company purchases coking coal in Australia and the United States. SAIL, the state-owned steel company, also sources coking coal in countries like Mongolia. According to the commodity consultancy BigMint, coking coal is a volatile product because it dominates exports and weather conditions are unpredictable. Weather conditions will affect Australia's coking coal supply in 2023. Reporting by Neha arora in Mumbai and Manvi pant in Bengaluru. Editing by Mrigank dhaniwala, Shilpa Majumdar
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UniCredit invests in Generali to support Caltagirone
Three sources claim that UniCredit threw their weight behind Generali rebel investor Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone on Thursday, a move which could soften the government's opposition to a bid for Banco BPM. While Caltagirone lost the shareholder vote on Thursday to select a new Generali Board, Andrea Orcel has positioned UniCredit as a front that is supported by the government and conducts multiple battles within Italian finance. Generali's vote gave a win to Mediobanca as the top shareholder. It secured 10 board positions and a second term for Philippe Donnet, CEO. Caltagirone won only three seats. Caltagirone’s most important ally is the investment company Delfin. Delfin invests in UniCredit. Together, they own 27% of Mediobanca and 17% of Generali. Delfin and Caltagirone acquired recently also nearly 20% state-backed lender Monte dei Paschi di Siena. MPS has announced an offer to take over Mediobanca. This bid came after UniCredit's takeover of BPM in November. This scuttled government plans to merge BPM and MPS. Last week, the conservative government of Prime Minster Giorgia Melons slowed down UniCredit’s bid to acquire BPM by imposing conditions that UniCredit believes could be detrimental. BPM's bid begins on Monday. UniCredit has been in contact with the government to discuss the conditions. Credit Agricole, BPM's principal investor, has secured Rome’s blessing for an increase in its stake of close to 20%. Orcel's relationship with the previous Italian government was strained when he pulled out of a deal in 2021 to purchase MPS. He has not been able to repair his relationship with Meloni’s executive. Orcel, whose BPM bid was struggling, has built up a stake of 6.7% in Generali over the last few months. UniCredit was expected to abstain from the vote on Thursday. The stake had been widely viewed as a means to increase Orcel's bargaining strength in Italy's rapidly-moving M&A market. According to three sources close to the situation, Orcel did not support Caltagirone after the Wednesday board meeting where the conditions of the government for BPM was discussed. UniCredit refused to comment. One person said that the bank saw Generali as a potentially positive change. Generali is Italy's largest insurer and its most prestigious asset.
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US durable goods orders surge on aircraft bookings during March
In March, orders for durable U.S. manufactured products surged on the back of strong demand for aircraft. However, activity elsewhere was muted as businesses exercised caution in light of a bleak economic outlook due to tariffs. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Thursday that orders for durable goods, which include toasters and aircraft designed to last at least three years, increased by 9.2% in March after a slightly revised 0.9% increase in February. Economists surveyed by predicted durable goods orders would increase 2.0%, after an earlier reported 1.0% rise in February. China and the United States are involved in a trade dispute after President Donald Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports up to 145%. This prompted retaliation by Beijing. Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on all trading partners, and threatened to impose a 25% duty for imported auto parts. Other goods such as lumber, automobiles, steel, and aluminum have also been subject to a slew of tariffs. Trump sees the tariffs to be a way to generate revenue in order to pay for his tax cuts, and to revitalize a U.S. industry that has been declining. The domestic manufacturing industry is heavily dependent on imported raw materials, and economists warn that the tariffs will disrupt supply chains. Transport equipment orders increased by 27.0%. This was boosted 139.0% by an increase in commercial aircraft orders. Commercial aircraft orders are notoriously volatile. Boeing announced on its website that they had received 192 orders for aircraft in March. This is up from just 13 in February. China ordered this month that its airlines stop taking Boeing jets. Some airline CEOs said they were willing to defer plane delivery rather than pay duty, which could harm the plane maker's recovery after a devastating strike last year. Recently, two Boeing planes bound for China were returned. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said, however, that on Wednesday, the company avoided further damage from tariffs, and that it could redirect jets towards other airlines who have "asked for additional aircraft." The non-defense capital goods order, which excludes aircraft and is closely watched as a proxy for the business's spending plans, rose 0.1% in march after a revised 0.3% decline in February. These core capital goods orders had been reported to have decreased by 0.2% in February. The shipment of capital goods has increased by 0.3%, after a 0.7% increase in the previous month. These shipments are used to calculate the equipment component of gross domestic product. The fourth-quarter decline in business investment in equipment was due to a decrease in the number of new purchases. The growth estimates for the quarter January-March are mostly below 0.5% annualized and the chances of a contraction is high. The fourth quarter saw the economy grow at a pace of 2.4%. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by ChizuNomiyama
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Atlantic Lithium seeks to compromise with Ghana over terms of the maiden lithium project
Atlantic Lithium continues to negotiate with Ghana's Government in order to save its Ewoyaa Lithium project, said the company's Chief Keith Muller on Thursday. Falling prices for the crucial battery metal have cast a shadow over the viability of Ghana's first lithium mine. The Australian-based miner wants concessions regarding Ghana's new mining revenue structure, which includes 10% carried interest free for the state as well as a 13% special royalty on gross revenues from lithium production. Muller stated in a press release that, "despite the current lithium price headwinds, through collaboration and prudent fiscal measure, we are confident we can bring Ewoyaa into production and provide lasting value to all stakeholders." Lithium prices are down more than 80% since their peak in 2022, which puts pressure on new projects around the world. Ahmed-Salim Adam (General Manager of Atlantic Lithium) said in an interview separately that urgent revisions in the fiscal terms will help keep the project going. LITHIUM PRICE RECOVERY UNDERMINED Ghana, Africa's leading gold producer, has granted an Australian miner 15 years to build the mine before the end of 2024. The miner hopes to take advantage of the electric vehicle boom. According to Atlantic Lithium's estimates, the Ewoyaa Project, with its estimated resource of between 35-40 millions metric tons lithium-bearing ores, will become one of top 10 global producers of spodumene concentrates, creating a new source of supply outside of the dominant markets in the industry, such as Australia, Chile, and China. The U.S. is expected to import around 360,000 tonnes of lithium per year. The project's construction was halted due to a delay in ratification by the parliamentary body. In addition, the collapse of the lithium price has further complicated its viability, and the timeline for the development of the company. Analysts remain cautious despite a recent recovery in prices, driven by a normalization of global auto production. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum’s head of commodities said that while "EV-led growth is strong, it's still being overwhelmed by mine supply," noting the 25% tariff imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. Price says that because West Africa is relatively new to the lithium market, investors prefer to remain in established markets during times of low prices. Muller said, "We are committed to working in partnership to ensure Ewoyaa is a flagship project both for the country as well as the region." Maxwell Akalaare Adombila reported; Veronica Brown, David Evans and David Evans edited.
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Farm body: a bigger German wheat crop is expected by 2025
The German association of agricultural cooperatives released its latest harvest estimation on Thursday. It said that the 2025 wheat production in Germany will grow 15.7% from last season to 21,41 million metric tonnes. The association had previously forecast a German wheat crop in 2025 of 21,36 million tons in March, but this was revised upwards after recent rains in Germany. Rain had reduced the wheat crop in Germany for 2024, causing a significant increase on last year. The association stated that German grains benefitted from the widespread rain in April, after an exceptionally dry February and March with 50% less rainfall than normal. It said that rain was urgently required to prevent dryness and it came at the right time. However, more rain is needed. Germany is Europe's second largest wheat producer, behind France. It is also a major wheat exporter. The association reported that the generally favorable autumn weather conditions allowed German farmers to increase their wheat sowing by 9,9% each year. The German harvest of winter rapeseed (used for the production of vegetable oil and biodiesel) is forecast to increase 9.6% this coming year, reaching 3.97 millions tons. After the National Statistics Office made substantial changes to its estimates of sown areas, the association recalculated earlier figures for Germany's rapeseed production in 2024 and projected yields for 2025. According to the association, the winter barley crop, which is mainly used as animal feed, will increase by 0.9%, reaching 8.80 million tonnes. Spring barley, which is used to make beer and malt, will drop 5.9%, to 1,76 million tons. This is partly due to the mild winter, as it was not necessary to replace winter crops by spring sowing. It said that the grain maize crop (corn) will drop 4.8%, to 4.67 millions tons. Reporting by Michael Hogan, Editing by Kirsten Doovan and David Goode
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Brazil's Usiminas reports positive results, but warns that uncertainty lies ahead
Brazilian steelmaker Usiminas delivered results for the first quarter that were above the market's expectations on Thursday, but warned of challenges in the second half due to high interest rates and uncertainty surrounding trade. Businesses around the globe have been preparing for the impact of U.S. president Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs. These have sparked an international trade war, and have led to growing concerns and uncertainty about the global economic situation. The Brazilian company said that it foresaw a difficult and uncertain scenario in the second half 2025. This was stated in a filing of securities after the firm reported its quarterly results. The main reasons for this are the high volume of imports of steel under unfair competition conditions, the impact of the high interest rates on the domestic market, and the uncertainty in the international trade. Steelmakers in Latin America’s largest economy have complained for years about unfair competition, claiming that China floods their market with cheap materials. Usiminas called again on the government do more to control these imports. The Brazilian company reported a net income of 337 million reais (59.08 millions dollars) for the period January-March, an increase of 845% on a year-on-year. This was higher than the 225.02 that analysts had predicted in LSEG's poll. Iron ore sales increased 13% on an annual basis, to 2,11 million tons. Steel sales rose 5%. Usiminas predicted that both should remain stable in the second half of this year.
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What is the Indus waters treaty between India & Pakistan?
India announced that it would suspend the Indus water treaty with Pakistan immediately as part of its efforts to reduce diplomatic relations with Pakistan after militants killed 26 tourists in Kashmir. Before New Delhi's Wednesday decision, the treaty had endured two wars between bitter rivals. It also survived many diplomatic twists and turn. What is the INDUS WATERS TREATY? Both nuclear-armed neighbors disagree on the use of water flowing from rivers in India that drain into the Indus River basin in Pakistan. The Indus Waters treaty was signed in September 1960 by the neighbours after the World Bank mediated the agreement. The agreement divided the Indus River and its tributaries and set up water sharing between the two nations. India received water from the Sutlej River, Beas River, and Ravi river, while Pakistan got the majority of the western rivers, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. The treaty does not allow either party to unilaterally terminate or suspend the pact. It has a clear dispute resolution system. What are the concerns about water? For years, the nuclear-armed neighbors have been arguing and disputing several projects along the Indus River and its tributaries. Pakistan's hydropower and irrigation requirements are heavily dependent on the water in this river system. India denies that India diverts water unfairly by building barrages and dams upstream. Pakistan claims this. Pakistan is worried that India's new dams could reduce the flow of the river which supplies 80% its irrigated agricultural production. It asked for an independent expert to be appointed and then for an arbitration court intervened in two recent hydropower project. India accuses Pakistan of prolonging the complaint process and claims that the construction of the Kishanganga hydroelectric project and Ratle is permitted under the treaty. India has sought to modify the treaty in order to avoid such delays. What could the suspension change? India's lack of storage capacity will not affect the flow of water into Pakistan immediately if the accord is suspended. The Indian move could cause uncertainty in Pakistan's agriculture system. Officials in India said that the suspension allows India to stop sharing vital information and data about floods, barrages/dams, or water releases, as well as other important issues. New Delhi is also no longer required to release minimum amounts during lean seasons. HOW HAS PAKISTAN RESPONDED TO THIS DECISION A statement released by Shehbaz Shaif's office on Thursday said that the treaty was a binding international accord brokered and contained no provisions for unilateral suspension. The statement stated that any attempt to divert or stop the flow of water belonging Pakistan, as per the Indus Treaty and usurpation of rights of lower riparians will be treated as an Act of War. The term "lower-riparian" is used to describe Pakistan's downstream position. Ghasharib Shaokat, head of product at Pakistan Agriculture Research (PAR), called the treaty "the backbone" of the agriculture sector in Pakistan. It puts our future agricultural on shaky grounds. Shaokat explained that if water flows are erratic the whole system is affected, especially crops dependent on irrigation, such as rice, wheat and sugarcane. Yields may drop. Costs may rise. Prices of food would probably rise. Small-scale farmers who operate on very thin margins would be the hardest hit. Khalid Hussain Baath - the chairman of Pakistan's national farmers union - characterized this move as one of aggression. Baath, who is in Lahore, said: "This is war." Climate change has already caused a water crisis. The water level has already dropped 20-25% compared to last year due to the low rainfall and lack of snow this year.
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Trelleborg adjusts prices and production in order to offset the 'limited' impact of tariffs
Trelleborg, a Swedish industrial group, said that it sees only a small direct impact of the U.S. tariffs. It expects to manage this through production adjustments and increased prices. Trelleborg will tackle tariff challenges by optimising and localising production, managing prices and ensuring flexibility in global operations. In a recent earnings report, the company said that indirect effects, such as disruptions in supply chains and higher costs of raw materials, could still have a negative impact on business. According to LSEG, the adjusted operating profit before amortization rose to 1,62 billion Swedish Crowns ($169 millions) in the third quarter, which is just below the analysts' expectations of 1,63 billion. Trelleborg reported that sales of seals for the construction industry were low, mainly due to the continued softness on the North American market. They also noted a subdued level of demand from automakers. The company expects the demand to remain the same as in the first quarter, but warns of an unusually high level of uncertainty due to geopolitical factors. Last week, Sandvik, a Swedish company that makes metal-cutting, mining and other equipment, said that it had not seen any impact of U.S. Tariffs on the demand for its product. $1 = 9.5835 Swedish Crowns (Reporting and editing by Milla Nissi in Gdansk)
MORNING BID EUROPE - Risk assets are trampled under Trump's tariffs for everyone
Trying to stay up-to-date with the latest news on tariffs? This daily news digest provides a quick overview of global trade headlines. Tariff Watch is free. Sign up here. Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The week has started off rocky in Asia, as stocks have fallen across the board due to a rush to risk. Bonds extended their rally while gold reached another record.
The mood was already fragile before the announcement of U.S. Tariffs on Wednesday, but President Trump exacerbated it by telling reporters aboard Air Force One that levies will cover all countries - not just select ones. He is known to make these comments in the early hours of Asia's trading day, when liquidity is low. This causes a lot of waves.
Nikkei was the worst of the lot, with a drop of 3.8%. It was the biggest daily fall in six months. Almost all of Asia ended up in the red. Nasdaq's futures fell 1.3%, and major European stock futures were not far behind.
Analysts were convinced by Trump's apparent indifference towards rising auto prices. Goldman Sachs expects that reciprocal tariffs across all U.S. trade partners will average 15%. Goldman Sachs increased the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession from 20% to 35% in the same note. The "R"-word is now on everyone's lips.
Investors expect this slowdown will outweigh the inflationary effect of tariffs, and push the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis point this year. However, it would take a significant increase in unemployment for such action to be warranted. The markets have 60 bps of ECB easing for this year, and 50 bps of Bank of England easing.
Bond investors were comforted by the thought of this easing and the flight to safety. The yields on ten-year Treasury bonds fell from 4.40% to 4.21% last Thursday, a drop of nearly 4%. The question is whether the rally will continue when the inflation data begin to show the effect of tariffs.
As of now, lower yields are pushing the dollar against the yen and the euro, while the pound and the Euro have also risen. The yields are important, but it could be harder for the US dollar to maintain its status as a safe haven when the White House is at the center of the turmoil.
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
- German retail sales data, CPI and imported prices
Speakers from Riksbank, Norges Bank
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for March
(source: Reuters)