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What is the World Trade Organization E-Commerce Moratorium?
The ecommerce moratorium is an agreement between World Trade Organization members that prohibits the application of customs duties to electronic transmissions, such as "digital downloads" and "streaming". The policy was adopted for the first time in 1998, at the WTO's Second Ministerial Conference held in Geneva. It was part of a statement to encourage early digital trade growth. This includes cross-border transmissions of software, e-books and music, movie and video streaming, and video games. The tariff moratorium was originally intended to be temporary. It has been extended roughly every two-years at each WTO Ministerial Conference, most recently for two years in 2024 at the 13th meeting. The 14th WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaounde (Cameroon) will see the expiration of this agreement. Arguments for Extending the Period WTO members who have large digital economies, such as the U.S. and the EU, Canada, and Japan, want to extend the moratorium indefinitely because it will ensure predictability for global digital trade. The U.S. is concerned that major American tech companies such as Amazon and Apple will have a stable regulatory climate without having to worry about countries imposing duties which could affect cross-border digital commerce. Over 200?business organizations from around the world signed a statement calling for an extension to the moratorium. The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) says that a failure to comply with the law would increase costs, fragment internet, and make it difficult for businesses to engage in digital cross-border trade. Arguments against Extending the Moratorium Some developing nations including India, which has opposed the moratorium for a long time, claim that extending it would deny them the tariff revenue they need to fund infrastructure or close the digital gap. Sofia Scasserra, a researcher at the Transnational Institute, said that the moratorium had failed to boost digital economies in developing nations and has instead entrenched the dominance of the U.S. In a research paper published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in 2019, it was estimated that the moratorium could have cost developing countries $10 billion in tariff revenue in 2017. An OECD report found that the revenue loss from digital services imported could be largely offset by goods and services taxes or value added taxes. Positions of the countries at the Cameroon Meeting At the Cameroon Ministerial Conference, four formal proposals for the ecommerce moratorium have been presented. The African,?Caribbean, and Pacific Group proposes extending?the?moratorium to the next ministerial conferences. The United States. The?U.S. A group that includes Switzerland proposes an extension until the next conference, while a plan from Brazil proposes to extend it until then and create a digital-trade committee. Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin, Yaounde, Editing by Keith Weir
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EU Trade Commissioner discusses tariffs and critical minerals with US
The European Union trade commissioner stated that he had a "very constructive" meeting on Saturday with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, on the sidelines of the?World Trade Organization Ministerial Meeting in Cameroon. Maros Sefcovic, the commissioner of Maros Sefcovic, said that they had agreed to continue working on critical minerals with the United States. Tariffs were also discussed. After months of uncertainty about President Donald Trump's tariff threats and new import levy, EU lawmakers passed legislation on Thursday that will 'fulfill the bloc's part of its trade deal with the U.S.' in Turnberry, Scotland last July. Washington was worried that it might not adhere to the deal. The U.S. and the EU reached an agreement to impose a 15% import tariff on most EU products - half of the rate that was threatened - averting a larger trade war between two allies who account for nearly a third the global trade. Sefcovic said that the positive meeting and vote with Greer was important. It demonstrates that both sides are committed to the agreement, despite global turbulence. The U.S. will be the EU's biggest trading partner in 2025, with EU exports to the U.S. expected to reach a record of 555 billion euro ($641 billion). Sefcovic stated that the EU also looks to other trading partners. He said: "Our agenda in the future is to work as much as we can with all partners who want to have a?free?trade agreement with?us... and, of course, to lower tariffs for the partners with whom?we are already trading." (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Dave Graham, and Olivia Le Poidevin)
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Schindler CEO ready to oppose possible Kone-TK Elevator Merger
The head of Schindler, a Swiss?lift manufacturer, said on?Tuesday that the company will contest any?merger between rivals Kone Elevator and TK Elevator in front of antitrust authorities. Bloomberg News reported last 'week that Finland's Kone is in talks to purchase TK Elevator. The merger would make Schindler the second largest lift manufacturer in the world, surpassing the current leader OTIS. Schindler CEO Paolo Compagna stated that the deal would be "a bloodbath", bound to disrupt the lift industry as the world's third and fourth largest lift manufacturers would have to integrate overlapping customer bases and production sites, and teams. Compagna stated in an interview that she was sure "we wouldn't be the only ones going to make sure that this antitrust is checked in every country possible." Kone and TKE initially did not respond to initial requests for comments. COMPAGNA SAID THE POSITION IS STILL THE SAME AS 2019 Schindler has maintained the same position since the last time the idea of a merger was discussed in 2019. This coincided with Kone's bid for TKE. Advent International and Cinven - the current owners of TKE - made a bid for around 19.9 billion euros (17.2 billion euros) that ultimately beat out the Finnish group's?2019 offer. Compagna stated that the environment is more difficult today than it was in 2019. Bloomberg reported that a possible deal value could be as high as 25 billion euros. Compagna said that any merger could take several years, and would?presumably? require many?divestitures. If a deal proceeds that far, Schindler will consider buying any divested businesses as part of its bolt on acquisition strategy.
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What are the Houthis and their allies, Iran in Yemen?
Israel's military said that a missile fired from Yemen was detected for the very first time a month into the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran. There were few details immediately, such as who fired the missile or at what target. But news of the attack was announced just hours after Iran's Houthis group said it would act if an escalation of violence against Iran and "Axis?Resistance". continued. The Houthis are heavily armed and can strike neighbouring Gulf countries. Any involvement by them in the conflict could have a major impact on maritime navigation throughout the Arabian Peninsula. This is why: Who are the HOUTHIS? Houthis is a military, religious and political movement that is led by the Houthi Family and based in north Yemen. They are Shi'ite Muslims who belong to the Zaydi Sect. After the "Arab Spring", the Houthis expanded their power, and forged closer ties to Iran. The group took advantage of the instability in the country to capture the capital Sanaa, Yemen in 2014. Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition in a military operation to try and?dislodge this group. The Houthis showed off their significant missile and drone capability by attacking Saudi Arabian oil installations and critical infrastructure, as well as the United Arab Emirates. The U.N. mediated a truce in Yemen between warring parties that has held since 2022. RED SEA ATTACKS Following the attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023 that triggered a devastating israeli military campaign against Gaza, the Houthis started firing on international ships in the Red Sea. They claimed to be doing this in support of Palestinians. Israel responded by airstrikes on Houthi targets after the Houthis fired missiles and drones at Israel. The U.S. launched its own strikes against the Houthis. In October 2025, the Houthis stopped their attacks after a ceasefire brokered by the U.S. between Israel and Hamas. Why have they not entered the war earlier? Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, the leader of Houthi group, said on March 5 that his group is ready to strike any time. In a televised address, he stated that "our fingers are ready to trigger military escalation at any time should the situation warrant it." They have not announced their formal participation in the war, unlike Hezbollah of Lebanon and Iraqi armed forces. The group reiterated its warning on Friday as the war intensified. A few hours later Israel confirmed that it had identified a missile launched from Yemen. Hezbollah, Iraqi groups and Houthi religious doctrine do not follow the supreme leader of Iran in the same manner. Yemen experts claim that while Iran promotes the Houthis in its "Axis of Resistance" region, they are primarily motivated by domestic issues even though there is a shared political affinity between Iran and Hezbollah. The U.S. claims that Iran has armed and?funded the Houthis, with?help from Hezbollah. The Houthis deny that they are Iranian proxy forces and claim to develop their own weapons. What might they do? The Houthis are a notoriously volatile group. Observers were divided on the possible course of action. Analysts and diplomats?believe that they have already launched individual attacks against targets in neighboring states. These claims could not be substantiated. Some say that the Houthis 'kept their powder wet for the right moment to enter into the conflict in coordination with Iran to exert maximum force. This could be an opportunity if the Strait of Hormuz is closed to Gulf Arab hydrocarbons exports, and the Red Sea becomes a major source of oil. The group stated on Friday that it would be prepared to take action if other countries joined the U.S., Israel and others in their war on Iran or if attacks were launched from the Red Sea against the Islamic Republic. The warning raised concerns about a wider regional conflict, especially given that the Houthis are able to strike targets beyond Yemen as well as disrupt shipping lanes in the Arabian Peninsula. This would stifle global trade. (Reporting from Riyadh by Timour Azhari and Nayera Abudallah; Editing done by William Mallard, Lincoln Feast and Lincoln Feast).
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Prime Minister Albanese: Australia will amend export-finance legislation to improve fuel security
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced on Saturday that Australia would amend its export finance laws to "bolster fuel security" as the Iran War continues to affect 'the nation's supply chain. Since the U.S., Israel and others began their war on Iran in August, Australia has seen localised fuel shortages. This is part of a wider conflict that has disrupted the global fuel supply. Albanese announced?in televised comments that Australia will?establish new powers in order to bring fuel here for Australians. "New fuel security power will allow the government to underwrite private sector fuel purchases." Albanese stated that the powers would allow the country's Export-Finance Agency to purchase fuel shipments and increase local supply. He ?said his centre-left Labor government would introduce amendments on Monday to export-finance and ?insurance-corporation laws in parliament. Chris Bowen, Australia's Energy Minister, said in a televised statement on Saturday that Australia had 39 days worth of petrol and 30 days worth of diesel or jet fuel. The government stated this week that the supply was strong, despite six fuel shipments being canceled from Asia. Also, several hundred Australian fuel stations were out of gasoline or diesel. (Reporting from Sydney by Sam McKeith; Editing by William Mallard).
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GRAINS-Chicago's soy profits slip after US biofuel targets are revised
Chicago soybean futures dipped on Friday after the White House announced revised U.S. Biofuel targets earlier in the afternoon. Many traders had already bought soybean futures anticipating bullish news. Wheat and corn were both volatile on Friday amid the uncertainty surrounding the Iran War, while corn was also impacted by technical selling before the weekend. The Chicago Board of Trade's most active soybean contract settled at $11.59-1/4 per bushel, down 14-1/2 cents. Randy Place, an analyst at Hightower Report, said: "We are a little weaker in beans and it's likely profit-taking ahead of the weekend, as well as headline risk, depending on what happens with Iran and how negotiations go." Investors have responded cautiously to the latest comments made by U.S. president Donald Trump on the talks to end a month-old conflict. Trump said that the talks to end war are going "very well" and he will delay his threatened attacks against Iran's nuclear energy plants by a further 10 days. Oil prices rose on Friday, as traders weighed Trump's remarks against Iran's criticisms of U.S. proposals, and the ongoing disruption in energy markets. The price of grains and oilseeds has tracked crude oil fluctuations during the conflict. This is due to the use corn and soyoil for biofuels, and the knock-on effect on crop production caused by rising energy and fertiliser costs. CBOT corn settled at $4.62 a bushel as grain participants adjusted their positions ahead of Tuesday's U.S. Department of Agriculture acreage estimates. The war in the Middle East may increase the cost of fertilizer, which could lead to more acres being planted with soybeans. Fertilizer is needed to provide a significant amount of nitrogen for corn. The CBOT wheat price remained unchanged at $6.05 a bushel. Prices have been supported by the dry conditions in part of the U.S. Wheat Belt. Traders closely monitor the drought in the southern U.S. Plains. Hot weather this week has increased the risk of crop stress, before rain is expected next week. Kansas Wheat Futures have seen sharper gains this week compared to Chicago wheat prices due to the parched conditions.
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Oil prices soar as stocks fall on a gloomy economic outlook due to Middle East war
On Friday, the global stock markets declined and oil prices increased due to the lack of progress made in ending the Middle East conflict which has been raging for four weeks and is now affecting consumer and business confidence. In recent days, the global equity market has been in a downward spiral as U.S. president?Donald? Trump's comments about negotiations have become less significant than the Gulf situation, where Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz and attacks continue. Wall Street's three main indexes are trading lower, with shares in consumer discretionary, technology, and financial companies leading the way. The disruption of world oil supplies due to the conflict will have a negative impact on global growth and inflation, according to economists and business leaders. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6%. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%. And the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.1%. The broad market S&P is down 9% since its January record close. Matt Britzman is a senior equity analyst with Hargreaves Lansdown. He said that words alone don't cut it at the moment, as President Trump's decision to extend the pause in the energy strike against Iran has failed to raise the mood. "Tangible proof of progress is needed." Trump has extended the deadline for Iran's reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has not given any?direct indications that it is willing to negotiate. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran reiterated that it will continue to disrupt shipping in the Strait, through which approximately one-fifth the world's supply of oil and natural gas is transported. Brent crude futures increased by 4.2% to $112.57 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures closed up 5.4% to $99.64. Dan Boston, global director of the small business team at Polar Capital Florida, said: "The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed the greater the disruption and the uncertainty surrounding oil prices." You can see that everything from transportation to food costs are affecting inflation expectations. "As those expectations increase, consumer sentiment begins to decline as well." The University of Michigan’s index of U.S. Consumer Sentiment fell more than anticipated in March and reached a three-month high. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index fell by 0.95%. Germany's DAX fell by 1.4%, while London's FTSE 100 index dropped by 0.05%. MSCI's index for Asian shares outside Japan dropped 0.9% overnight. MSCI's global stock index fell by 1.34%. NASDAQ ENTERES CORRECTION TIERRA The Nasdaq Composite, a tech-focused index, entered correction territory after dropping 2.4% Thursday. It is now down almost 11% since its record closing in late October. James St. Aubin is chief investment officer of Ocean Park Asset Management. He said that the unbridled enthusiasm that propelled Nasdaq's stock to record highs during the fourth quarter has faded as the macro-background deteriorates and the uncertainty surrounding the impact AI will have on the tech ecosystem in general clouds the horizon. BOND YIELDS ARE RISING The yields on government bonds rose as central banks were seen as being more likely to increase interest rates in order to prevent an inflationary shock caused by higher energy prices. As prices drop, yields also rise. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which is used to set borrowing costs in?the rest of the world, increased by more than one basis point, reaching 4.432%. Money markets see roughly 60% of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising?rates in 2019. This is a dramatic change from February, when traders bet on two rate cuts for 2026. The yield on Germany's 10-year bonds rose by 0.7 basis points, to 3.105%. The U.S. Dollar was slightly higher compared to major peers such as?the Euro, Japanese yen, and Swiss Franc. The dollar has risen to its highest level since July 2024. The yen was last up 0.35% at 160.365. The dollar rose 0.50% to 0.79800 versus the Swiss Franc. The euro fell 0.15% to $1.151250. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks currency against six other currencies, increased 0.27% to $100.16, marking the fourth consecutive session of gains. Spot gold rose 3%, to $4,513.73 an ounce.
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Canada eyes Mercosur pact by autumn
The minister of international commerce for Canada said on Friday that he hoped to sign a?free-trade agreement with South America's Mercosur bloc in the autumn. "We are?accelerating the timelines for negotiations a bit. We'll try to have our negotiations every six or seven weeks, and we hope we can finish by fall. Maninder Sidhu said on the sidelines a World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference in Cameroon that this is the goal we've set for our partners. The Minister said that he had 'bilateral meetings' with Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil. He will also meet with Brazil, Uruguay and the WTO meeting in Yaounde on Friday, where a?potential Mercosur Canada trade agreement is part of the talks. We're ambitious. He said, "I think we can do it." An Argentine official had said that the agreement would be signed around September or October, roughly a year after negotiations formally resumed. A diplomat based in Brazil also said that negotiations were going at record speed. He confirmed 'the countries would probably reach an agreement this year. Canada has increased its efforts to diversify the trade amid uncertainty over tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. The diplomat in Brazil said that South America and Brazil are trade partners Canada can't do without. Reporting by Olivia Le 'Poidevin, Yaounde. Additional reporting by Lucinda Ell in Montevideo. Lisandra Paraguassu and Promit Mukherje from Ottawa.
MORNING BID AMERICAS - 'Phantom Trump tariffs' become more real in China
Mike Dolan gives us a look at what the U.S. market and global markets will be like today. After a four day guessing game, and financial turmoil, it appears that the United States has resumed its tit-fortat trade battle with China. Meanwhile Mexico and Canada have a minimum of a month breathing space. This leaves the markets a little shaky and unsure about the next step.
Mexico's peso and Canada's currency are now higher than when the latest round of threats, counter-threats and deferrals started on Friday. They have risen from their respective lows of two and 22 years.
The yuan is firmer, and back to where it was last Friday. This was despite the U.S. deadline for 10% tariffs on China having passed earlier in the day and China's immediate retaliation of plans for up to 15% import taxes on a variety of U.S. products starting next week.
This peculiar reaction indicates that there is still some hope that the delays and deferrals negotiated in Canada and Mexico will be replicated also in China. The press secretary for U.S. president Donald Trump said that Trump would be speaking with Chinese President Xi Jinping within the next few days.
The dollar index, on a broader scale, has mirrored all of these moves. It completed a 1,5% round trip since Friday that saw it reach three-week highs before reversing course. It was unclear whether Trump intended to impose tariffs on the European Union.
The Federal Reserve's broad, trade-weighted index of the dollar includes the yuan and peso as well as the Canadian dollar. Add the euro to that and you get more than 60%.
The fact that the mainland Chinese markets are closed until tomorrow for the Lunar New Year holiday complicates the market reading. However, Hong Kong shares rose almost 3% after reopening to reach three-month-highs even though the bilateral tariff salvos had been delivered.
Analysts say that the hope of delays and talks encouraged buying. Others claim relief at the 10% proposed U.S. Tariffs - as opposed to the 60% Trump had proclaimed before the election.
Beijing has announced that it will impose its own taxes of 15% for coal and LNG from the United States and 10% on crude oil, farm machinery and certain autos starting February 10.
China has also launched an anti-monopoly investigation into Alphabet’s Google. PVH, the holding company of brands such as Calvin Klein, and biotechnology firm Illumina are both included on a potential sanctions list.
Alphabet is the leader of the latest megacap quarterly earnings report on Wall Street. Big Pharma companies, Omnicom and Advanced Micro Devices are also in the top five.
U.S. Stock Indexes, however, are not back to the same level as Friday.
The S&P500 finished 0.8% lower, and futures are still negative ahead of Tuesday's bell due to the overnight China developments.
The VIX, or 'fear indicator' of Wall Street stock volatility, soared again above 20 on Monday. However, it has not yet closed above this level in the year.
The fear of inflation that is a result of tariffs has pushed up borrowing costs.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate remains higher this week, and the expectations for Fed cuts in 2019 have been lowered a bit. Both Fed officials and investors are assessing the extent to the which tariffs exacerbate the politically toxic price outlook.
There is some debate as to whether these one-off price increases would necessarily raise the inflation rate. However, it's reasonable to worry that the constant threats and the slow application of them will increase inflation expectations.
This is only one of many apparent contradictions that Washington's approach to policy has created.
The dollar will rise if tariffs are applied. This is in direct contradiction to Trump's claims that the dollar has been overvalued. It will also help overseas firms absorb the tariffs, and keep the prices of their products in U.S. shops down.
In the meantime, retaliatory tariffs against U.S. products overseas only hit U.S. importers.
Even if the assumption is only marginal, it will keep interest rates high and the stock market under a cloud, which goes against the stated intentions of the new administration. The administration's much-vaunted support for the crypto industry is now being questioned as the dollar increases on the trade dispute.
As we return to the domestic economy today, it is important that you pay attention to the multiple updates on this week's labor market. December's job openings will be released before Friday's payrolls report.
In Europe, earnings from corporates grew rapidly.
UBS's fourth-quarter profit exceeded expectations, but its shares dropped 5%, as investors failed to be impressed by the buyback plan, which was contingent on Swiss capital rules not changing.
Infineon's shares, on the other hand, rose 11% following the German chipmaker’s revenue forecast for full-year and its beat.
The French 10-year government bond premiums over Germany have fallen to 70 basis points for the first four months, after French Premier Francois Bayrou pushed the 2025 budget through parliament. He was betting that he had enough votes to overcome a possible no-confidence vote.
The following developments should help to guide U.S. stock markets on Tuesday:
(source: Reuters)