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MORNING BID AMERICAS - 'Phantom Trump tariffs' become more real in China

Mike Dolan gives us a look at what the U.S. market and global markets will be like today. After a four day guessing game, and financial turmoil, it appears that the United States has resumed its tit-fortat trade battle with China. Meanwhile Mexico and Canada have a minimum of a month breathing space. This leaves the markets a little shaky and unsure about the next step.

Mexico's peso and Canada's currency are now higher than when the latest round of threats, counter-threats and deferrals started on Friday. They have risen from their respective lows of two and 22 years.

The yuan is firmer, and back to where it was last Friday. This was despite the U.S. deadline for 10% tariffs on China having passed earlier in the day and China's immediate retaliation of plans for up to 15% import taxes on a variety of U.S. products starting next week.

This peculiar reaction indicates that there is still some hope that the delays and deferrals negotiated in Canada and Mexico will be replicated also in China. The press secretary for U.S. president Donald Trump said that Trump would be speaking with Chinese President Xi Jinping within the next few days.

The dollar index, on a broader scale, has mirrored all of these moves. It completed a 1,5% round trip since Friday that saw it reach three-week highs before reversing course. It was unclear whether Trump intended to impose tariffs on the European Union.

The Federal Reserve's broad, trade-weighted index of the dollar includes the yuan and peso as well as the Canadian dollar. Add the euro to that and you get more than 60%.

The fact that the mainland Chinese markets are closed until tomorrow for the Lunar New Year holiday complicates the market reading. However, Hong Kong shares rose almost 3% after reopening to reach three-month-highs even though the bilateral tariff salvos had been delivered.

Analysts say that the hope of delays and talks encouraged buying. Others claim relief at the 10% proposed U.S. Tariffs - as opposed to the 60% Trump had proclaimed before the election.

Beijing has announced that it will impose its own taxes of 15% for coal and LNG from the United States and 10% on crude oil, farm machinery and certain autos starting February 10.

China has also launched an anti-monopoly investigation into Alphabet’s Google. PVH, the holding company of brands such as Calvin Klein, and biotechnology firm Illumina are both included on a potential sanctions list.

Alphabet is the leader of the latest megacap quarterly earnings report on Wall Street. Big Pharma companies, Omnicom and Advanced Micro Devices are also in the top five.

U.S. Stock Indexes, however, are not back to the same level as Friday.

The S&P500 finished 0.8% lower, and futures are still negative ahead of Tuesday's bell due to the overnight China developments.

The VIX, or 'fear indicator' of Wall Street stock volatility, soared again above 20 on Monday. However, it has not yet closed above this level in the year.

The fear of inflation that is a result of tariffs has pushed up borrowing costs.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate remains higher this week, and the expectations for Fed cuts in 2019 have been lowered a bit. Both Fed officials and investors are assessing the extent to the which tariffs exacerbate the politically toxic price outlook.

There is some debate as to whether these one-off price increases would necessarily raise the inflation rate. However, it's reasonable to worry that the constant threats and the slow application of them will increase inflation expectations.

This is only one of many apparent contradictions that Washington's approach to policy has created.

The dollar will rise if tariffs are applied. This is in direct contradiction to Trump's claims that the dollar has been overvalued. It will also help overseas firms absorb the tariffs, and keep the prices of their products in U.S. shops down.

In the meantime, retaliatory tariffs against U.S. products overseas only hit U.S. importers.

Even if the assumption is only marginal, it will keep interest rates high and the stock market under a cloud, which goes against the stated intentions of the new administration. The administration's much-vaunted support for the crypto industry is now being questioned as the dollar increases on the trade dispute.

As we return to the domestic economy today, it is important that you pay attention to the multiple updates on this week's labor market. December's job openings will be released before Friday's payrolls report.

In Europe, earnings from corporates grew rapidly.

UBS's fourth-quarter profit exceeded expectations, but its shares dropped 5%, as investors failed to be impressed by the buyback plan, which was contingent on Swiss capital rules not changing.

Infineon's shares, on the other hand, rose 11% following the German chipmaker’s revenue forecast for full-year and its beat.

The French 10-year government bond premiums over Germany have fallen to 70 basis points for the first four months, after French Premier Francois Bayrou pushed the 2025 budget through parliament. He was betting that he had enough votes to overcome a possible no-confidence vote.

The following developments should help to guide U.S. stock markets on Tuesday:

(source: Reuters)