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Russell: China's thermal coal production drops, but prices of imported coal in Asia rise amid the Iran war.

The Iran War has impacted crude oil and natural gas markets. However, the impact on coal prices has been muted. Prices for thermal grades are quietly rising to multi-year highs.

The conflict between the United States of America and Iran has led to the loss of about 10% of crude oil and a fifth of LNG. However, the thermal coal supply has been largely unaffected by the conflict, despite the fact that the cost of shipping and producing has increased due to higher fuel prices.

Coal prices are likely to be driven by a number of factors, including the Iran war and changes in Indonesian regulations.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's seaborne thermal coal imports are expected to have their best month since December in May.

The imports of thermal coal in Asia are expected to hit 76.26 millions metric tons by May, a 23% increase from April. This is also higher than the 72.83 millions from May last.

All of the top buyers in the region have seen gains.

China is the largest coal importer in the world. Its seaborne thermal arrivals are expected to reach 22.63 millions tons. This is up from 16.3 million tons in April, and the highest since January.

China's appetite to import is driven by a weaker domestic production. April's 385.63 millions tons were down from the record 440.62 in March and 1% from last April.

China's first four-month output fell by 0.1%, to 1.58 billion tonnes.

The fact that China's thermal electricity production, with the majority of it being coal-fired in the first quarter of the year, increased by 3.6%, suggests that the supply-demand balance in China has been tightened recently, encouraging imports.

The 82 deaths in the worst coal mining accident in 17-years, which occurred last Friday in a metallurgical mine in 'Shanxi Province, may lead to a further shortage of coal as authorities intensify safety inspections in both thermal coal and coking coal.

China's increasing import demand has helped lift the prices of grades it typically seeks.?Commodity price reporting agency Argus assessed Indonesian coal, with an energy contents of 4,200 kilocalories/ kilogram (kcal/kg), at $64.43 a tonne in the week ending May 22. This is a three-year peak and up by 42% from the end of last season.

Kpler predicts that India, as the second largest importer of thermal coal, will see arrivals of 13,78 million tons in May. This is the highest since June last years and 7.3% more than the 12,84 million recorded in April.

Last week, heat waves drove electricity demand to new records. This boosted demand for coal-fired generators.

INDONESIA CHANGES

The world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia, announced regulatory changes last week that will have a significant impact on the way cargoes are traded.

Indonesia plans to control the coal trade through exports via a state-owned company that will be in charge of contracts and prices.

The government has said that it will honor existing long-term agreements, but it also reserves the right to review the prices of such deals.

By implementing state controls over exports, the government will eliminate under-invoicing.

It's possible that the trade flow will be affected if there is still uncertainty about how the new system will work in practice.

The imports of thermal coal by Japan are expected to increase from 6.63 millions tons in April to 7.59 million in May. South Korea's arrivals will be 6.73 million tons, which is the highest since January, and a significant jump from April's 4,79 million.

Both countries in North Asia are among the top four coal importers. They are also the best positioned to switch from LNG-imported natural gas to coal-fired electricity generation.

Due to the Iran War, both Japan and South Korea are likely to increase their coal-fired power generation.

The price of high grade Australian thermal coal has risen as a result. The weekly assessment of Newcastle?Port rose to $133.09 per ton during the week ending May 22. This is up from $131.80 and only slightly below the 18-month-old high of $140.53 set in early April.

Australia is the second largest coal exporter and may be in a better position to capitalize on any disruptions to Indonesian coal shipments due to regulatory changes. Its lower-grade coal could replace Indonesian coal.

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(source: Reuters)