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Andy Home: China tightens its grip on global nickel supplies with Anglo's sale

Andy Home: China tightens its grip on global nickel supplies with Anglo's sale

Anglo American’s sale of its Brazilian Nickel business to China’s MMG Ltd. is a win-win for both companies.

Anglo delivers on its shareholders' promise to simplify its portfolio, and pockets up to $500m.

MMG, a producer of zinc, copper and cobalt, can diversify and grow its geographical footprint by expanding into Brazil.

The market for nickel is one of the few that has shown signs of resilience in the face of a glut.

It's not good news for western countries that want to escape China's tightening of the global nickel supply chains.

China already controls around 75% the refining capacity of Indonesia, which is rapidly emerging as the world's biggest supplier.

China's dominance of the nickel market could grow even more as two other Western producers look to sell their nickel operations because of low prices.

Price Devastation

Anglo's Brazilian assets include two mines and processing plants, with a combined annual capacity of 40,000 tons of nickel.

The two plants produce ferronickel, a metal that is used in the production of stainless steel. Stainless steel remains the biggest consumer of nickel, despite its increasing use in batteries for electric vehicles.

The nickel market in this segment was the first to be affected by the Indonesian production boom. This initially took the form of nickel pig iron, a stainless steel competitor.

These Class II Nickel products are always sold at a lower price than the Class I high purity refined metal that is traded on the London Metal Exchange.

According to MMG's investor presentations on the deal, Indonesia's production boom caused the discount from LME prices to soar from an average of 8.4% in 2001 up to 27.2% by 2023.

The LME was also falling, which was bad news for Class II producers.

According to Macquarie Bank's Jim Lennon, around half of ferronickel production in the world outside of China or Indonesia has been suspended.

CARBON EDGE

Anglo-Brazilian operations is among the survivors.

The nickel price on the London Metal Exchange has fallen to a four-year low of less than $16,000 per tonne.

Anglo's Ferronickel is sold at a higher price than other Class II products because of its superior quality and environmental credentials compared to Indonesian NPI.

The carbon footprint has become more important in the stainless steel sector. Carbon Border Adjustment, a tax on imports with higher carbon content, will be implemented by the European Union next year.

TURNAROUND

The Class II nickel market has turned around, even as the LME Nickel price continues to fall under the weight rising inventories, largely Chinese and Indonesian.

According to MMG, the discount on the LME Nickel price has decreased by an average of 25% in the first half last year. The discount for Anglo nickel material has decreased to 15.9%, down from 20.8% by 2023.

The closure of large capacity in the West, as well as a shift in product mix in Indonesia have both impacted the supply.

Many Indonesian operators switched from producing NPI in the stainless steel sector, to either producing nickel matte or mixed hydroxide in the battery sector.

Macquarie’s Lennon believes that the Class II segment was best balanced in the last year, as the surplus Indonesians transferred to the Class 1 segment.

This glut can be seen in the LME warehouse stock, which has risen by 30,000 tons this year, bringing it to 192 828 tons.

STRATEGIC METHAL

MMG believes that the glut of stainless steel will not last past this decade. This is when the combination of a steady increase in global production and a surge in demand for batteries will lead to soaring supply deficits.

The company would be in a good position to reap the benefits if it did. Anglo's Nickel assets are located on the third largest nickel resource in the world, which could transform MMG into the largest producer of the metal outside of Indonesia.

Although the Brazilian operations produce ferronickel at the moment, they could easily be re-configured in the same way as the Indonesians and produce battery components.

China still views nickel as a strategic metal, even though its lustre has diminished in the West.

Vale, a Brazilian company, has announced a $1.4bn impairment on its Thompson Nickel operations in Canada. Vale also launched a review of their business. Thompson nickel is not the only nickel-related asset that could be acquired by Chinese investors.

South32, an Australian miner, also plans to sell off its Cerro Matoso ferronickel operation in Colombia in response to "structural changes in the nickel markets", it stated in its Q4 report for 2024.

These structural changes were brought about by Chinese investments in Indonesia. China is now able to double down on the long-term bet it has made that nickel will still be a key metal in the energy transition due to the supply tsunami and price crash.

The author is a columnist at

(source: Reuters)