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Russell: Crude oil imports to Asia from the ROI grew in June, but there is still uncertainty.

Asia's crude oil imports by sea rose slightly in June, but they remained near their lowest levels?in over a decade due to the Iran conflict which crimped Middle East shipments.

Data from commodity analysts Kpler show that the top importing region is expected to receive 20,71 million barrels of oil per day in June. This is up a fraction from the 20.39 million barrels of oil per day in May and almost 2 million more than the 18,77 million bpd received in April.

The imports of Asia remain well below the average 26.79 millions bpd for the three-month period prior to the United States' and Israel's attacks on Iran on February 28.

The war resulted in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway that connects Iran and Oman, through which 20% of crude oil and refined products were transported before the conflict.

The United States and Iran agreed to a 60-day truce that was to result in the full reopening the Strait. However, vessel movements are still well below the pre-war level due to Iranian attacks against?some ships.

The Strait of Hormuz has seen a recent increase in crude volumes, but Kpler estimates that only 2.79 millions bpd of oil will have been exported in June. This is up from 881,000 barrels per day in May, but still less than a fifth of what was averaged for the three-month period prior to the beginning of the conflict, which was 15.58 million barrels per day.

Unresolved is the question of whether or not crude exports to the Middle East can return to their pre-war level, and?if so, how long it will take.

SEE SOLUTION FOR PRICES

Brent futures contracts ended at $73.15 per barrel on Monday. This is only slightly more than the $72.48 close on February 27th, the day before hostilities began.

The prices of refined products in Asia are a little different. They remain above the pre-war level as refiners process expensive crude bought from outside the Middle East during the height of the conflict.

Singapore gasoil (the building block of?diesel) ended Monday at $111.15 per barrel, up by 22% since the February 27 close price of $91.42.

Gasoline On Monday, oil finished at $100.42 per barrel. This is a 26.6% increase from the $79.30 it was on February 27.

As more crude oil arrives in Asia, it is likely that the price of refined products will fall in the coming weeks.

How quickly the import volume returns to pre-conflict levels will determine how much of a difference there is.

The Strait of Hormuz is still a wildcard, with Iran determined to exert control in spite of the opposition of the Trump administration, Gulf crude exporters like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, and even the United States.

Tanker owners and insurers will continue to be concerned about possible attacks, causing uncertainty over the safety of the Strait.

What China does over the next few months is another wildcard.

By reducing imports dramatically, the world's biggest crude importer has averted the negative impact of restricted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Kpler predicts that China's seaborne imports will be only 5.80 million bpd, down from 6.80 million in May, the two weakest months since November 2015.

The average seaborne imports of China for the three-month period prior to the conflict was 11.39 millions bpd.

With crude prices now back where they were prior to the start of the war, China's refiners are likely to once again begin buying cargoes. However, these will not be delivered until August.

The level of uncertainty on the crude oil market in Asia is still high.

Will the crude market tighten if China returns to buying the same volume of crude as it did prior to the Iran War, particularly if the Strait Of Hormuz flows do not increase as much as futures markets appear to expect?

What will happen to the crude supply when the current influx of stockpile releases from countries like the United States and Japan stops?

The crude oil market has so far shown remarkable adaptability and resilience in the face the disruption brought on by the Iran War. It is unclear whether this trend will continue.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)