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Oil prices fall on fears of oversupply and sanctions risks

The oil prices fell in Asian trade Tuesday, as concerns over oversupply outweighed the uncertainty about the impact of U.S. Sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft & Lukoil. Also, optimism was high over the progress made toward the reopening of the U.S. Government.

Brent crude futures dropped 12 cents or 0.2% to $63.94 per barrel at 0426 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $59.99 per barrel, down by 14 cents (0.2%).

Both benchmarks rose by around 40 cents during the last session.

The longest shutdown in U.S. government history could come to an end this week, after the Senate approved compromises that restore federal funding. The agreement now moves to the House of Representatives where Speaker Mike Johnson said he wanted to pass it by Wednesday.

Oil prices are being held back by concerns about an oversupply of crude oil, despite the fact that progress towards reopening government has lifted markets in general.

Analysts at the energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates wrote in a report that "as OPEC's production increases continue, the global oil balances have a more bearish tone on the supply side. Demand is still on the decline in tandem with a slowed growth path in major oil-consuming nations."

Earlier in the month, OPEC+ decided to raise December production targets by 137,000 barrels a day, just as they did for October and November. The group also agreed to put a stop to the increases during the first quarter next year.

In a note published on Tuesday by ANZ, analysts noted that while the oil glut triggered in recent weeks by rising OPEC production has caused investors to become more bearish, U.S. Sanctions remain a focus. They were referring to President Donald Trump’s latest measures against Russian oil giants Rosneft, and Lukoil.

On Monday, sources said that Bulgaria was preparing to seize Burgas' refinery and Lukoil had declared force majeure on its Iraqi oilfield. The biggest impact of the sanctions is the force majeure on the West Qurna-2 oil field in Iraq.

Analysts said that the amount of oil on board ships in Asian waters has doubled over the past few weeks, after Western sanctions tightened hit exports to China, India, and other countries, and import quotas curbed demand by independent Chinese refiners. Analysts say that some refiners from China and India are now buying oil in the Middle East.

Ritterbusch said that one potential threat to the oil market's bearish outlook is "the extent to which China continues to push Russian supply into strategic stockspiles, and whether India succumbs to Trump's suggestion that India defer further purchases of Russian oil." Reporting by Ashitha shivaprasad from Bengaluru, and Emily Chow from Singapore. Editing by Sonali p.

(source: Reuters)