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Sources say that Kazakh overproduction influenced OPEC+ to approve a production increase.

Sources say that Kazakh overproduction influenced OPEC+ to approve a production increase.

Sources said that as OPEC+ debated if they should keep oil production steady because of weak global demand, or increase it in response to pressure from the U.S. president Donald Trump and internal pressure, a record output from Kazakhstan helped sway their decision.

OPEC, along with its allies, including Russia, a collective known as OPEC+ decided to increase production for the first since 2022. It stated that its decision was based on a healthy market and positive market prospects, without mentioning Kazakhstan.

The group plans to increase production by 138,000 barrels a day starting in April. This is the first of planned monthly increases that will unwind nearly 6 million barrels a day of reductions, which equals nearly 6% global demand.

OPEC+ Member Kazakhstan has reached a new record of production, far exceeding its original target. This was agreed upon with the producer group following the completion of a major expansion by U.S. oil giant Chevron at Kazakhstan's Tengiz Oilfield.

Three OPEC+ members told us that several other members, including Saudi Arabia as the top producer in the group, were upset by the increasing output from Kazakhstan. Three OPEC+ sources refused to identify themselves due to the sensitive nature of the issue.

OPEC headquarters, the Saudi government's communications office and Alexander Novak's office as Russian Deputy Premier did not respond immediately to comments.

Three sources told us that the argument within OPEC+ is that it doesn't make sense to keep limiting production if OPEC+ members themselves are overproducing.

One source said, "This is a very bad thing for the discipline within OPEC+. They (OPEC+), will push Kazakhstan hard to compensate."

The compliance of OPEC+ member countries with their individual production targets under the collective agreement has deteriorated in the last year.

Saudi Arabia's de-facto leader in OPEC, Saudi Arabia has been irritated by the oversupply of oil from Kazakhstan, Iraq and Russia. Saudi Arabia has adhered to its production target and has made the most drastic cuts.

OPEC+ has been able to meet its targets since 2022. The group has asked those members who have produced too much to make deeper cuts over the next few months.

On Monday, OPEC+ announced that its members had pledged to better comply with the agreement and compensate for excess production.

In February, Kazakhstan's crude and condensate production reached a new record of 2,12 million bpd. The OPEC+ quota does not regulate condensate and the quota set for crude production is 1.468million bpd.

OPEC+ named Kazakhstan as one of the countries that consistently produce more crude oil than their quota.

Chevron, Exxon Mobil and BP are the two largest oil companies in Kazakhstan. The government decides the export volumes.

TRUMP FACTOR

Trump's renewed pressure on OPEC to lower prices led to OPEC+'s decision. In his campaign for president, he pledged to lower pump prices in the United States.

Sources said that Trump's public call for more oil to be supplied by OPEC+ did not play a role in the discussions of the group.

Sources said that the production increase suited certain members, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia.

UAE is pushing for an increase in the last two years, as it wants to make use of its increasing spare production capacity.

Two sources stated that Russia believed the OPEC+ would improve its relationship with the U.S. by allowing the increase to go forward.

Helima Crockt, RBC Capital Markets, said that Moscow can appear to be aligned with Washington without fundamentally breaking ranks from OPEC.

Trump changed the U.S. foreign policy towards Ukraine and Russia when he took office in January. He began talks with Moscow to end the war.

If Trump eased sanctions against Moscow as part of the peace process, Russia could benefit from increased revenue and possible exports. (Reporting and editing by Dmitri Zohdannikov and Simon Webb, with additional reporting and editing by Ahmad Ghaddar. Additional reporting and editing by Olesya Almakhova, Vladimir Soldatkin and Maha El Dahan.

(source: Reuters)