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Battery shifts to nickel and cobalt as a result of the energy storage boom

Battery shifts to nickel and cobalt as a result of the energy storage boom

Fidra Energy's plan to convert a 55-acre patch of countryside in northern England into Europe's biggest energy storage facility, a 1,45 gigawatt one once complete, was far from finalized when it acquired the land in 2023.

Chris Elder, CEO of the Edinburgh-based firm, said, "We struggled to make economics work."

The cost of the batteries used in this project has been roughly halved over the last 18 months.

Fidra plans to begin installing battery units in its Thorpe Marsh 600-million-pound ($800 million) project next year.

LFP batteries have fueled a boom in energy-storage projects, which - in terms of percentage - has now surpassed the growth in electric vehicle sales. UBS estimates that total storage capacity will have to grow eight-fold before the end of the decade, and 34-fold until 2050 in order to keep pace with the growth of renewable energy.

According to an energy transition consultancy, Rho Motion, while EVs will still dominate the battery market, energy storage is expected to make up a fifth of it by 2030.

Analysts say that tariff uncertainty will cause growth in the U.S. to slow down in the coming years. The U.S. is the second largest energy storage market in the world, and it's still dependent on Chinese imports. But the long-term growth remains intact.

This is good news for renewables and should help national power grids maintain a balanced supply of electricity as they transition to cleaner sources of energy, avoiding the type massive blackouts that briefly crippled Spain in the last month.

LFPs are a much more affordable alternative to traditional batteries, and they do not contain cobalt or nickel. This rapid adoption is sending shockwaves throughout the markets that already have a depressed state.

Martin Jackson, a commodities consultant at CRU, said: "You have seen a truly massive shift in the intensity of use for nickel and cobalt as compared to battery demand."

NICKEL AND COBALT DECLINE

Analysts predicted for years that the battery industry would require huge amounts of cobalt and nickel to make high-powered batteries that allow EVs travel long distances without charging. This forecast sent EV prices soaring for a while.

Production increased in anticipation of a surge in demand, especially for the top nickel exporter Indonesia and cobalt-exporting Democratic Republic of Congo.

The lack of affordable EVs and the slow deployment of charging infrastructure has slowed EV adoption among consumers outside China. This has led some automakers to scale back on their electrification plan.

Oversupply has caused nickel prices to fall by half over the last three years, while cobalt prices have fallen by 60%.

Global EV sales grew by 23% in 2018. According to Rho Motion the demand for storage battery has risen by 51% and is expected to grow by 40% in 2019.

LFP batteries are the most common type of energy storage. They're essential for greener power grids, which will help governments achieve their net-zero goals.

These batteries are increasingly used by Chinese EV manufacturers, including BYD - which last year surpassed Tesla to become the largest seller of EVs in the world.

According to CRU data, as a result of this, the use of nickel in batteries for EVs, consumer electronics and storage batteries has decreased by nearly a third during the next four years, and by about two-thirds with cobalt.

Prices for both metals are likely to be further impacted by the increasing pace of LFP adoption.

Lithium could, however, see a rise.

Iola Hughes, from Rho Motion, said: "The share that stationary storage plays in the battery demand picture has grown very significantly. It is becoming increasingly important to lithium players as EV demand is slower than expected."

This has not yet translated into a stronger market, as the oversupply is pushing down already low lithium carbonate prices by another 20% this year.

Beyond Price

LFP batteries are not just about price.

Fidra's Elder stated that recent technological advancements in LFP batteries have resulted in Thorpe Marsh LFP batteries having a life expectancy of 20 years. This is up from the previous 10-15 years.

Lars Christian Bacher CEO of Norway's Morrow Batteries said that the change is also driven by concerns about the carbon intensity and rights issues relating to the cobalt mined in Congo.

He said that there are high expectations for battery suppliers to be able to trace the origins of their products. "Some of these mineral have been historically associated with... countries which have some questions related to human right issues, child labor."

Lithium also faces increasing scrutiny due to indigenous rights and environmental concerns, although this hasn't garnered as much attention from the public as nickel and cobalt.

Morrow plans to produce 3 million cells, or 1 gigawatt-hour of capacity, per year. According to the British energy regulator, fully charged, this is roughly enough to run 1 million homes an hour.

Batteries are being produced by existing manufacturers.

LG Energy Solution, a South Korean company, is expanding its business in energy storage to offset the slowdown of EV demand across North America.

An industry source in Asia said that the company plans to stop producing EV batteries containing Nickel at one U.S. facility and repurpose them for LFP battery manufacturing.

Analysts expect that the shift to LFPs will only strengthen China's grip on the sector.

90 percent of the energy storage batteries in the United States are imported from China.

Analysts say that Washington's tariffs against Chinese batteries - which are currently 41% during this 90-day truce in the trade war - will likely affect short-term demand.

Fidra's Elder said that while Europe also wants to reduce its dependency on China, governments must be pragmatic. His Thorpe Marsh project, which uses batteries manufactured by China's Sungrow Power Supply company, relies on Sungrow Power Supply's Sungrow Power Supply batteries.

He said that if the British government is serious about achieving its net-zero target for the UK – and I believe it is – it will have to work pragmatically with China.

(source: Reuters)