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London copper prices rise, but caution before US tariffs cap gains
The copper price in London rose on Wednesday but gains were limited as investors awaited the details of reciprocal duties from U.S. president Donald Trump, scheduled for later that day. As of 0250 GMT, the benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose by 0.2%, to $9,716 a metric ton. Trump announced on Sunday that his reciprocal tariffs would apply to all countries. A base metals trader stated that "we sense a risk off sentiment" due to the looming uncertainty ahead of Trump's announcement on reciprocal tariffs later today. The Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, released on Tuesday, rose to 51.2 from 50.8 in Feburary, reflecting manufacturing growth despite the potential threats of an escalating U.S. Trade War. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a 2.5% increase in the price of tin, which is due to the fear that supply will be disrupted by the earthquake that occurred last Friday in Myanmar, a country rich in tin. Chaos Research stated in a report that the market's expectations have been affected by the recent earthquake. If the mining area collapsed as a result of the earthquake, there is a good chance the mining will not resume in Wa State in 2018. Myanmar's Wa State had previously considered allowing the mining of tin in this region. Mines in Wa state produce 70% of the tin produced by Myanmar, which is the third largest producer on the planet and the dominant supplier to China. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell 0.3%, to $2499 per ton. Lead rose 0.1%, to $1992, Zinc dropped 0.1%, to $2819, Tin gained 0.2%, to $37.570, and Nickel advanced 0.2%, to $16,065 per ton. SHFE copper remained flat at 79.930 yuan per ton. SHFE aluminium fell 0.1% to 20.465 yuan per ton. Zinc lost 1.0% to 23.290 yuan. Lead dropped 0.5% to 17.325 yuan. Nickel rose 0.3% to 129.005 yuan. $1 = 7.2693 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Beijing, Violet Li in Shanghai)
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Stocks are on tenterhooks, as Trump's tariff plans approach
Asian stocks stumbled on Wednesday as investors worried about escalating global trade wars awaited the details of U.S. president Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. In recent weeks, investors have been focused on the new round reciprocal levies which the White House will announce at 2000 GMT on Wednesday. These are expected to go into effect immediately following the announcement. Trump has already imposed duties on autos, aluminium and steel, as well as increased duties on all Chinese goods. This has rattled the markets, with fears growing that a full-blown global trade war may trigger a sharp economic slowdown. Asian stocks dropped in the early morning trading after a turbulent session in the United States. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.3%, while South Korea's benchmark was down 0.57%. Wall Street's benchmark S&P and Nasdaq both ended the session higher, after earlier losing ground. The Dow ended a little lower. Chris Weston is the head of Pepperstone's research. He said: "We are experiencing a trading environment that is in a state if chop. Market players are adjusting their exposures at the margins and don't want to commit." The blue-chip index rose 0.14%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3% in early trading. Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC. He said: "Trump called April 2, 'Liberation Day,' but it's unlikely that investors will be truly liberated from tariff uncertainty." This possibility will likely continue to make investors nervous. Investors are becoming increasingly concerned by signs such as rising prices, a slowing economy and cracks on the labour market. The data showed that U.S. manufacturing shrank in March, after two months of growth. A measure of inflation in the factory gates jumped to its highest level in almost three years due to rising concern over tariffs on imported products. In a recent note, ING economists stated that "Tariffs were meant to reinvigorate U.S. Manufacturing, but they are more concerned about the impact on supply chains, and what it means for foreign retaliation, despite signs of a cooling in the domestic economy." The Labour Department reported on Tuesday that U.S. employment opportunities fell by 194,000 in February to 7.568 millions as tariff uncertainty dampened labour demand. The yield on the 10-year Treasury benchmark note in the United States was 4.189% during Asian hours, having fallen to 4.133% Tuesday. This is its lowest level since February 4. Most currency pairs traded in tight ranges. The euro remained at $1.079125 while the sterling traded at $1.29125. The yen was slightly weaker, at 149.83 dollars per yen. But the focus will be on tariff details. This is especially true after a report in the media said that Trump's advisers were considering a plan to raise duties by around 20% on products from almost every country rather than target certain countries or specific products. "We are heading into Trump's time to shine, with many already having deleveraged in order to run as neutral or flat a position they can on equity, USD (dollar), and Treasuries." Pepperstone's Weston stated Gold, which is seen as a safe haven against economic and political turmoil, was well-priced at $3,132.43 an ounce. This price, while up by 0.7%, was still just below the previous session's record high.
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Oil prices remain stable as the market waits for new US tariffs
The oil prices were stable on Wednesday, after falling the previous day on fears that new U.S. trade tariffs to be announced later in the session could deepen a worldwide trade war and limit crude demand. Brent futures fell 2 cents, to $74.47 per barrel at 0016 GMT on Wednesday after falling 0.4% Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 1 cent to $71.21 following a 0.4% drop. On Monday, prices rose to the highest level in five weeks. The White House confirmed on Tuesday that President Donald Trump would impose new trade barriers on Wednesday. However, it did not provide any details on the size or scope of these trade barriers. Trump has been touting April 2 as "Liberation Day" for weeks. This would mean new duties which could shake the global trading system. The White House will make an announcement at 4 pm. ET (2000 GMT). As part of the "maximum-pressure" campaign by his administration to reduce Iran's exports, President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary duties on Russian oil. He also increased sanctions against Iran on Monday. Trump had threatened to "bomb" Iran on Sunday if the country did not reach a nuclear deal. The U.S. oil and fuel inventories also painted a mixed image about the supply and demand of the world's largest producer and consumer. According to sources citing the American Petroleum Institute, crude oil stocks in the United States rose by 6,000,000 barrels during the week ending March 28. The sources reported that gasoline inventories fell by 1.6m barrels while distillate stocks dropped by 11,000 barrels. The Energy Information Administration will release official U.S. crude inventory data later this Wednesday. Sources say that investors are looking forward to the OPEC+ ministers meeting online on Thursday. They are expected to approve a new increase in production starting May. (Reporting and editing by Laila K. Kearney)
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Lithium Americas makes final investment decision on Thacker Pass mine
Lithium Americas announced on Tuesday that it had reached a Final Investment Decision (FID) to construct the first phase for the Thacker Pass Lithium Mine in Nevada. Thacker Pass is a joint project between Lithium Americas, a subsidiary of General Motors in the United States. The first phase of the project should be completed by late 2027. Jonathan Evans, CEO of Lithium Americas, said: "Together we will develop an American-produced lithium supply to reduce American dependency on foreign suppliers for essential minerals." Lithium Americas of Vancouver and General Motors have both contributed $192 million in cash each to the JV. This has allowed it to reach a fully-funded status for the first phase of the project. The U.S. Department of Energy approved a loan of $2.26 billion for Lithium Americas last year to help build the project. The company had also accessed $650 million through its joint venture with General Motors. Thacker Pass will produce enough lithium carbonate for 800,000 electric cars in the first phase. Reporting by Vallari Shrivastava, Bengaluru. Editing by Alan Barona
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GRAINS-Chicago soya beans rise at biofuel coalition meeting
Chicago soybean futures rose Tuesday, ahead of a discussion between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and a coalition representing oil and biofuels groups to raise federal mandates on biomass diesel blends. Analysts say that corn futures gained support due to wet forecasts for the U.S. Delta, Ohio Valley and Midwest, while wheat futures grew on the back of reduced acreage, as reported in a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on Monday. The Chicago Board of Trade's most active soybean contract settled at $10.34-1/4, its highest level since March 6, and CBOT corn finished up 4-1/2cents at $4.61-3/4, while wheat rose 3-1/2 cents to $5.40-1/2 per bushel. Jim McCormick of AgMarket.net, a founding partner, stated that the news that a newly-formed coalition of oil groups and biofuel groups including the American Petroleum Institute was meeting with EPA representatives on Tuesday drove soybean oil futures higher on Tuesday. The coalition wants to see biomass diesel blend mandates raised from 5.5 billion up to 5.75 billion. McCormick said that the new mandate would represent a dramatic increase from the current 3,55 billion. McCormick said that the forecast of heavy rains in the U.S. Delta region and Ohio River Valley will also support corn production. He said, "It isn't a big problem yet but we won't be planting very quickly in that part of the country." The futures for wheat continued to rise as a result of the USDA's release on Monday of prospective planting data. The USDA's planting forecast for 2025 showed that the U.S. area of wheat would be lower than analyst expectations. McCormick reports that the grain markets are still bracing themselves for President Donald Trump to announce tariffs on 2 April. This prospect continues to raise concerns about retaliation by other countries against U.S. agricultural exports. Renee Hickman reported from Chicago. Reporting in Paris by Gus Trompiz, and Ella Cao, Mei Mei Chu and Mei Mei Chu from Beijing. Editing by Aurora Ellis.
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EnerSys moves production from Mexico to the US
EnerSys, a provider of energy services, announced on Tuesday that it will close its lead-acid manufacturing plant in Mexico due to flooding and move production to a US facility. The announcement coincides with the preparations of U.S. president Donald Trump to impose reciprocal duties on countries that impose tariffs on U.S. products, beginning on April 2, a day he has called "Liberation Day". A pre-tax charge in the amount of $20 million would be incurred in the first half 2025 due to the closure of the Monterrey plant in Mexico, and the subsequent transfer of production from that facility to the Richmond, Kentucky, plant. EnerSys said that the restructuring will result in an estimated annual pre-tax profit of $19,000,000, starting with fiscal year 2027. Shawn O'Connell said, "The transition will allow us to optimize our costs structure, maximize IRC 45X near-term tax benefits, mitigate future risks associated to potential tariffs, while strengthening our commitment to improve domestic industrial security." O'Connell will assume the role as chief executive officer by May. Reporting by Vallari Shrivastava from Bengaluru, editing by Maju Sam
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Trump Administration weighs new coal leasing at North Dakota mine
The Trump administration took a major step on Tuesday in leasing new areas for a North Dakota mine that plans to operate until 2045. Why it Matters The publication of an environmental draft analysis of the new lease areas of North Dakota's Freedom Mine aligns with President Donald Trump’s goal of increasing U.S. fossil-fuel production and reviving coal for electricity production. The United States' electricity supply, formerly dominated by coal, is now only about 16 percent, as natural gas and renewable energy are cheaper. By the Numbers Freedom Mine is owned by a NACCO division and produces between 11.5 to 13.5 million tonnes of lignite annually in Mercer County. The company has requested the lease of tracts covering 1,350 acres, which contains approximately 24 million tonnes of mineable coal. The owner of the mine was not immediately available to comment. Key Context Freedom Mine, which supplies coal to Basin Electric Power Cooperative power plants, first applied for the lease of the new areas in 2019. The company submitted an emergency application that would require a portion coal from the new lease area to be mined in three years. Leases consist of a mix of surface land owned by private and federal owners, and subsurface coal. What's Next? The Bureau of Land Management is seeking public feedback on the proposed leasing until May 2. The Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management, a division, is evaluating a variety of options including leasing less land. The assistant secretary of Interior for Land and Minerals must approve the company's modification to its mining plan. (Reporting and editing by Nichola Grroom)
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China to sell its first green sovereign bond Wednesday
China will finalise the long-awaited global green sovereign bonds on Wednesday. This is expected to mark the beginning of a series that will increase its market share at a crucial time. The signal was sent to indicate that the vehicle was ready Last month Top Chinese Finance Ministry officials laid out the detail at a meeting in London with investors on Tuesday. The 6 billion yuan bond ($825 millions) is scheduled to be listed on the London Stock Exchange. Green bonds have grown to a market value of $3 trillion over the past few years. China's state-run firms have made a significant contribution to this growth. However, international investors have been waiting years for the government to act. Director General Yu Hong of the Chinese Finance Ministry and his Deputy, Xing Chaohong, explained that it will be in two parts – one with a maturity of 3 years and another with a maturity date or deadline of 5 years. Both will have fixed rates. The interest rates are expected to be below 2%, but it depends on the demand during formal sales which will be overseen by eight banks in both China and Europe. The size of China has made it a long-anticipated country to issue a global bond. China's plan was finally revealed earlier this year, after British Finance minister Rachel Reeves and Vice Premier He Lifeng met in Beijing to discuss pragmatic co-operation on financial services. China, the largest emitter of climate-warming gases, has stated that it will peak its carbon dioxide emission before 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2060. The Finance Ministry published its framework for green bonds in February. It was described as an attempt to "attract foreign funds to support low-carbon and green domestic development". Climate Change Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation were listed as the five main priorities. An investor who attended the meeting on Tuesday said that the money raised will be used to fund the electric vehicle charging networks and national parks of the country.
Russell: China and India's reaction to Trump's Russia oil-tariff threat is crucial.
The threat by U.S. president Donald Trump to impose secondary duties of 25 to 50 percent on buyers of Russian crude is so outrageous and bold that it may achieve his stated goal of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
What is important now is how the other key players react to the latest move of this mercurial, inconsistent U.S. president.
Do Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi, as well as Chinese President Xi Jinping, believe that Trump is going to follow through on his promises? If so, what will this mean for the energy situation of these countries?
India and China are the two largest buyers of Russian crude oil. Their reaction is as important as Putin’s response to Trump’s latest shift.
Trump told NBC News he was "pissed" at Putin, and that he would impose tariffs up to 50% for buyers of Russian crude if he felt Moscow was blocking efforts to bring peace to Ukraine.
If Russia and I cannot reach an agreement to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine and if I believe it is Russia's responsibility, then I will impose secondary tariffs on all oil coming out of Russia. Trump said that he would impose secondary tariffs on all Russian oil.
It is a reversal from his previous friendly attitude toward Putin. This had attracted widespread criticism because it was seen as a surrender to Russia and a tacit acceptance of its aggression.
Russia, China, and India have to assess whether Trump's threats are credible and likely.
Putin may back down a little if he believes Trump is going to increase sanctions against Russia's major export.
India is in a difficult position, as Modi's stance has been to try to appease Trump. A proposal to abolish the import duty for U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas in order to increase purchases was an example.
India is also a major beneficiary from the fact that the rest of world has shunned Russian crude. This has allowed the South Asian nation the opportunity to purchase discounted cargoes, so much so that Russia now ranks as its biggest supplier.
According to LSEG Oil Research, India will import 1.52 million barrels of Russian oil per day in March. This represents just over 30% of the total number of arrivals.
India is already refusing to buy crude oil from Iran due to U.S. sanctions. Replacing Russian barrels would lead to an increase in India's oil costs, and the scramble to find other suppliers.
CHINA RISK
China is less likely than the U.S. to give in to pressure, since it is the sole major buyer of Iranian oil. It is also the top importer for Russian oil.
Beijing faces the risk that an additional tariff up to 50% of U.S. imported goods from China on top of Trump's 20% would cause real pain to its economy. It is already struggling for momentum.
If Trump's threat of secondary duties on buyers of Russian oil is credible, this will also change the dynamics of the OPEC+ exporters group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia.
For OPEC+ member countries other than Russia any reduction in Russian barrels will likely boost prices and allow them to increase production and exports.
It's a fight between self-interest and group solidarity. With the fiscal position of many OPEC+ countries deteriorating, it may be difficult to resist the temptation of earning more money through higher exports.
For the moment, players will likely respond cautiously - at least publicly - as they attempt to determine whether Trump's new tariff threat was a thought balloon easily discarded by the next change in sentiment.
Initial market reactions were subdued. Brent futures, the global benchmark, rose a modest 0.3% in early Asian trading on Monday to $73.84 per barrel.
These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by SonaliPaul)
(source: Reuters)