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China increases petroleum storage in the middle of soft refinery processing: Russell

The pace at which petroleum flowed into China's stockpiles increased in April as slower refinery processing exceeded a decline in imports.

An overall of 830,000 barrels per day (bpd) was added to China's business or tactical stockpiles in April, up from 790,000 bpd in March, according to estimations based upon official data.

Over the very first four months of the year, China, the world's. biggest crude importer, added 700,000 bpd to storages, a. considerable volume that goes some way to undermining the marketplace. view that oil consumption is robust in the middle of a recovering economy.

China does not divulge the volumes of crude streaming into or. out of strategic and business stockpiles, however a price quote can. be made by subtracting the quantity of unrefined processed from the. overall of unrefined offered from imports and domestic output.

The overall crude readily available to refiners in April was 15.13. million bpd, consisting of imports of 10.88 million bpd and. domestic output of 4.25 million bpd.

The volume of unrefined processed by refiners was 14.3 million. bpd, leaving a surplus of 830,000 bpd to be added to storage. tanks.

For the first 4 months of 2024, the total crude readily available. was 15.26 million bpd, while refinery throughput was 14.56. million bpd, leaving a surplus of 700,000 bpd.

Refinery processing dropped 3.3% in April from the same. month in 2023, the first annual decrease in 20 months, as large. oil companies carried out scheduled upkeep, while smaller sized. refiners curbed output since of weak profit margins.

It's likely that refinery throughput will recover in May as. plants increase for the peak summertime demand season, although the. situation is complicated by robust demand for some improved. fuels, such as jet fuel and gas, but softer usage for. others such as diesel.

The concern for the market then becomes whether any increase in. refining will result in increasing need for petroleum imports, or. whether refiners will pick to dip into the stockpiles they. have actually been constructing up until now this year.

RATE ASPECT

Much depends upon oil prices, and current history suggests that. when global prices increase rapidly, or to levels China's refiners. think about expensive, the result is a pullback in imports, allowing. for the lag of around 2 months to represent when freights are. arranged to when they are delivered.

April's petroleum imports were the weakest considering that January and. came 2 months after prices beginning rallying sharply from. early February onwards, after members of the OPEC+ group of. exporters extended and deepened output cuts.

International criteria Brent unrefined futures surged from a. low of $76.85 a barrel on Feb. 2 to a current peak of $92.18 on. April 12.

This suggests that cost pressures may cap the need for. crude by Chinese refiners, and any gains in volumes are likely. to be focused in discounted oil from Russia and Iran, whose. exports are subject to Western sanctions, which successfully. limitations the variety of offered purchasers.

The rise in main asking price (OSPs) to a five-month. high by leading exporter Saudi Arabia for freights loading in. June might likewise curb China's oil need from the kingdom, with. sources indicating a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in June. freights from May's 45 million barrels.

China's unrefined imports rose 2.0% in the first 4 months of. the year, according to customs information.

Nevertheless, in barrels daily terms this corresponds to a gain of. just 100,000 bpd.

This is well except the 710,000 bpd increase in need that. OPEC+ projection for China for 2024 as a whole in its latest. regular monthly report, launched on May 14.

There is a distinction between imports and overall need, as. need can be satisfied from stocks or a rise in domestic. crude output.

While domestic oil production is somewhat higher, increasing. 2.1% in the first four months of 2024, it appears that China is. adding to stocks at a quicker speed up until now this year than it. performed in 2023.

The excess of unrefined available over refinery processing in. the very first 4 months of 2024 was 830,000 bpd, compared to. 480,000 bpd for the exact same duration last year.

The general image that emerges is that China's oil import. growth is modest up until now in 2024, and more of those imports are. heading into storage than they did in 2023.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)