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Unspecified number of deaths and missing in Texas flash flood
Local authorities report that flash floods caused by torrential rainfall and thunderstorms along the Guadalupe River, in south-central Texas on Friday killed an unknown number of people, and left many others missing. Unknown numbers of children were caught in floodwaters which swept across campgrounds. At a press conference on the disaster, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly stated that "everyone is doing their best to get these children out." Kelly stated that authorities have preliminary figures on fatalities but refused to release specific numbers until they know more about the extent of the casualties. Local media reported at least six deaths. After heavy rains of up to one foot, the U.S. National Weather Service has declared a flash flooding emergency in parts of Kerr County located in south-central Texas Hill Country about 65 miles north of San Antonio. Kerr County Sheriff's Office has reported "catastrophic floods" in the area. This resulted in "confirmed deaths and missing persons." Dalton Rice, Kerville's city manager, told reporters that the extreme flooding occurred without much or any advance warning. This prevented authorities from issuing evacuation orders. Rice stated that "this happened very rapidly, in a very brief period of time, which could not have been predicted even by radar." "This occurred in less than two hours." He said that scattered residential subdivisions and recreational vehicle parks, as well as campgrounds, were the hardest hit. Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick stated that he is working with the emergency response team of the state to coordinate the floods. "Another rainy day is predicted in these areas." Even if it is a light rain, flooding may occur. "There is a continuing threat of possible flash floods from San Antonio to Waco in the next 24-48 hours, in addition to continued risks in West and Central Texas," Patrick wrote in a social media post. Officials said that the U.S. Coast Guard, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and local authorities were all mobilized to help the local authorities deal with the crisis. Steve Gorman, Los Angeles (Writing and Reporting); Additional reporting by Ismail Shakil, Ottawa; Editing done by Matthew Lewis).
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Sources say that China is investing in the Brazil-led Global Forest Fund
Two people familiar with the negotiations said that China had signaled the Brazilian government it would invest in the Tropical Forests Forever Facility. This is a multilateral fund to conserve endangered forests all over the world. China's investment in the fund that Brazil proposed first in 2023 would be a significant shift in climate financing, which relied on funding coming from wealthy nations responsible for global warming up to this point. China's commitment could allow emerging economies to contribute to climate change mitigation financially, going beyond the requirements of the 2015 Paris Agreement that were imposed on developed countries. This new approach is being adopted as wealthy countries such as the United States back away from their ambitious pledges of funding projects to curb climate change. However, poorer nations are increasing pressure on these nations to do so as they struggle to deal with the effects of a warming climate. Last year, at the United Nations Climate Summit, leaders from developing countries criticized wealthy nations for their $300 billion annual global finance target. This was only a fraction of $1.3 trillion economists claim is needed. Sources say that Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fu'an, who met with his Brazilian counterpart Fernando Haddad, on Thursday, expressed his intention to contribute to TFFF (the Forest Fund for the Future), a fund to support the conservation of forests. The two spoke at a side meeting of finance minsters ahead of the BRICS summit, which begins in Rio de Janeiro this Sunday. One source who was present at the conversation said that Lan told Haddad that he thought the fund idea was important and that China would contribute. The discussion, however, did not include specific values. Sources say that the Brazilian government took the message of China's finance ministry as a sign that Beijing would contribute funds. However, a public announcement will not be made until the U.N. Climate Summit, COP30 in November. The Chinese embassy in Brasilia, as well as the Brazilian Finance Ministry, did not respond immediately to a comment request. Sources claim that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva discussed the fund in May with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Brazil is also looking to attract other developing nations with rich resources, especially from the Middle East. The Brazilian government believes that the TFFF could be the main new deliverable for COP30 in Belem, an Amazonian city. Policymakers envision TFFF to be a $125 billion endowment fund that combines contributions from the private and sovereign sectors. The fund would be managed as an endowment, with countries receiving annual stipends based upon how much of their rainforests remain standing. Although sources don't expect the fund will launch at this scale, initial indications of support came from the U.K. France, Germany Norway, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates. After President Donald Trump backed out of the Paris Agreement, the initial support from the United States has evaporated. The TFFF is a good example of the growing attention being paid to the conservation of tropical forests. These forests are rich in carbon that can help combat climate change. They also protect biodiversity. (Reporting from Lisandra paraguassu, Rio de Janeiro. Writing by Manuela andreoni. Editing by Brad Haynes & Chizu Nomiyama)
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Karabakh Summit: Regional powers adopt economic integration strategy
Seven leaders from west and central Asia met on Friday and agreed to promote trade liberalisation, increase foreign investment and cooperation in green energy as a way to enhance regional economic integration. As part of its long-term strategy for development up to 2035 the Economic Cooperation Organization meeting also agreed to enhance transport connectivity in the region and restore areas that were affected by conflict. The summit was held under the theme of "A New Vision for ECO for a Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Future." Participants included the Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan, his Azerbaijani colleague Ilham Aliyev as well as Shavkat Miziyoyev from Uzbekistan, Masoud Peshkian from Iran, Sadyr Japarow, Emomali Ramon in Tajikistan, and Pakistani PM Shahbaz Sharif The roadmap builds upon ECO 2025 a previous strategy that focused on regional integration, trade, and transport. Hikmet Hajiyev, Azerbaijan's presidential aide in charge of foreign policy, said that the ECO 2035 plan expands on ECO 2025 to include digitalization, social inclusion, and green energy. Hajiyev stated that Azerbaijan intends to establish a regional centre for green energy and a transport-energy hub as part of the new framework. However, investment figures are yet to be finalised. Aliyev, in a speech, highlighted Azerbaijan as a regional hub for energy and investments, noting that $350 billion was invested in the economy of the country in the last two decades. The meeting took place in the capital city of the former Nagorno Karabakh enclave. Azerbaijan recaptured the entire enclave in 2023. Although both Armenia and Azerbaijan backed the peace treaty between their two neighbours, tensions still remain. Erdogan expressed his hope that Khankendi could in the future become a "centre for peace and development in South Caucasus." The ECO-2035 strategy will be formally adopted by the Council of Foreign Ministers of the organization in Kazakhstan, this November. (Reporting and editing by William Maclean, Nailia Bagirova)
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The UK's Lindsey refinery, which is insolvent, has secured some crude oil supply to continue running for the moment
The UK energy ministry announced on Friday that the insolvent Lindsey refinery had secured crude supplies from Glencore to prevent its immediate closure. However, a source with knowledge of the situation claimed the agreement was only limited. The refinery near the north-east coast of Britain will cease to operate if crude oil is not supplied. The energy ministry didn't respond to questions regarding how long the agreement could keep the 113,000 barrels per day refinery running. The agreement to resume oil deliveries into and out of Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery has been reached. "The Official Receiver ensures continued safe operations on the site," said a spokesperson from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. Stock levels are normal in the UK. The government announced on Monday that Lindsey, the parent company owned by its owner Prax, had fallen into insolvency. It also said that the refinery was now under the control of an official receiver. Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, said on Friday that the refinery will shut down in three weeks due to the 1.8 million barrels it currently has stored. The ministry of energy did not respond immediately to the data, but referred back to its previous statement. Glencore, the company that held the contract for crude oil deliveries to the site located in Northeastern England before its insolvency, has been in talks about the future of the deliveries. Sources familiar with the matter said that on Friday, Glencore and the government had agreed to sell the crude oil that was in storage. This doesn't include future supplies for the refinery. Glencore has declined to comment. Britain is a net importer of fuel. According to Kpler, it imported nearly 700,000 barrels per day of jet fuel and diesel on average in 2024. It exported 370,000 barrels per day, of which a third was gasoline. (Reporting and additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Robert Harvey. Jane Merriman edited the story.
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Peru intensifies its fight against illegal mining and kicks out most informal miners from the permit scheme
The Peruvian government kicked out 50,565 miners from a temporary program which allowed them to continue their operations. Minister Jorge Montero said to a local radio station that only 31,560 miner will be included in the formalization program. The government will also intensify its efforts to combat illegal mining. The government stated that at least 45,000 excluded miners have not been active in the past four years. The REINFO program was launched in 2012, and it was intended to be a temporary measure that would formalize the illegal mining. Since then, it has been extended several times and criticized as a tool to enable illegal mining. The government has tried to shut down the program. The program was met with protests, and the government announced in late June that it would be extended until 2025. The protests continue, however. There has been a blockade of parts of Peru. key copper corridor The miners demanded "unconditional legalization" earlier in the week. The temporary permit has been used by many workers to mine in areas that are prohibited or on third-party land without complying with environmental or labor regulations. According to authorities Private mining companies are also available. In the past few years, this has led to violent clashes between miners and their workers, which have resulted in dozens of deaths. Even President Dina Boluarte was forced to intervene. Temporarily suspend mining After 13 gold miners were kidnapped, and murdered in the north of the country.
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Stocks, dollar dip as Trump passes spending bill, trade deal deadline nears
Stocks fell on Friday, as U.S. president Donald Trump passed his tax-cut bill and focused attention on his July 9 deadline to countries to sign trade agreements with the world's largest economy. Dollar also fell against major currency, despite the fact that U.S. market were already closed for the holiday week. Traders considered the impact of Trump’s spending bill, which is expected to add $3.4 trillion in debt to the nation. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.5%. Banks, mining stocks, and retailers were among the worst performers. U.S. S&P futures dipped 0.6% after the overnight cash index had risen by 0.8% to a record closing high. Wall Street was closed Friday due to the Independence Day holiday. Trump announced that Washington will begin sending letters on Friday to countries specifying the tariff rates they will face on their exports to United States. This is a significant shift from his earlier promises to reach scores of individual agreements before a deadline on July 9, when tariffs may rise dramatically. Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said that investors are "now waiting for July 9" and the lack of optimism in the market for trade agreements has contributed to some of the weakness of equity markets, especially those export-dependent Asia, such as Japan and South Korea. Investors cheered the surprising robustness of the U.S. employment report, which sent all three major U.S. equity indices soaring in a short session. Sycamore stated that "the U.S. Economy is Holding Together Better Than Most People Expected, Which Suggestions to Me That Markets Can Easily Continue to Do Better (From Here)". After Thursday's closing, the House narrowly passed Trump's signature 869-page Bill, which avoids the prospect of an immediate U.S. Government default, but adds trillions in debt to fund border security and military spending. TRADE IS THE CENTRAL FOCUS FOR ASIA Trump said that he expects "a couple" of more trade deals, after announcing on Wednesday a deal with Vietnam to add to the framework agreements with China as well as Britain. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said this week that an agreement with India was near. The White House had once said that agreements with Japan and South Korea would be announced as soon as possible. However, it appears the White House has not made any progress. The U.S. Dollar Index had its worst half-year since 1973, as Trump's chaotic implementation of sweeping tariffs raised concerns about the U.S. Economy and the safety Treasuries. However, the index rallied by 0.4% on Wednesday before retracing a portion of these gains on Thursday. As of 1430 GMT, it was down by 0.1% to 96.94. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1778 while the sterling remained at $1.3662. British assets stabilized after investor panic over the past two days following a tearful speech by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves at parliament on Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury Bond market was closed for the holiday on Friday, but the 10-year yields increased 4.7 basis points to 4.34%. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield rose 9.3 basis points to 3.882%. The price of gold rose 0.4%, to $3,336 an ounce. This is on track to be a weekly increase as investors once again sought safe-haven assets because they were worried about the fiscal situation and tariffs in the United States. Brent crude futures dropped 57 cents a barrel to $68.23, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 66 cents a barrel to $66.34 as Iran reaffirmed their commitment to non-proliferation. (Reporting from London by Lawrence White and Tokyo by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Stephen Coates and Alexandra Hudson. Joe Bavier, Alex Richardson, and Stephen Coates)
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VTB Russia expects the rouble to fall to 90 per dollar by 2025
A top VTB executive said that the Russian rouble would weaken to 90 cents against the U.S. Dollar by 2025, due to a fall in the central bank's forex sales. This will follow a rally that has been successful in fighting inflation. According to LSEG, based upon over-the counter quotes, the Russian currency had gained more than 40% against the U.S. Dollar in 2018. It was trading 0.5% higher at 78.70 per U.S. Dollar by 1230 GMT Friday. The central bank was able to reduce its interest rate to the lowest level in 20 years in part due to the lower inflation in June. This month, more cuts are expected. Dmitry Pyanov is the first deputy CEO at VTB. He claims that Russia's central banks has been supporting the rouble by selling foreign currencies. Pyanov is also VTB’s CFO and the first senior executive who has suggested that the rouble’s rally was deliberate policy to combat inflation. He said that the rouble would gradually weaken due to the expected decline in central bank forex sales this year, as a strong currency hurts exporters and will put pressure on regulators. Pyanov said in an interview that he believes the rouble is at its current peak and won't grow any further. Many Russian economists, government officials, and business executives believe that the rouble has become overvalued. The central bank has said that it does not target exchange rates, allowing the rouble's value to fluctuate freely. It attributes the recent rouble appreciation to geopolitical issues and the weak demand for imported goods, with firms and consumers refusing to take out loans to purchase these items. The central bank is increasing its net forex sales in July by 31%, to 9.76 billion rubles ($124 million). This will help maintain the rouble's current value despite calls for it to weaken. Pyanov criticized this policy. He said that the floating exchange rate system of the central bank only worked in one direction. It prevented the rouble's excessive weakness, but not its strengthening. As the exchange rate starts to fall, the central banks begins selling foreign currency. He said that's why he calls it "a floating rouble but only in one way". Markets should also take into consideration this policy. (Writing and editing by Andrew Osborn, Rachna uppal, Gleb Bryanski)
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Japan will begin testing mining rare-earth clay from the seabed by early 2026
The head of the government-backed Minamitori Island project announced on Friday that Japan will begin testing mining for rare-earth rich mud off Minamitori Island in January of next year. Minamitori Island is located 1,900 km (1,180 mi) southeast of Tokyo. Tokyo wants to ensure a stable supply of minerals despite China's tightening of export controls. China's decision on rare-earths magnets, alloys and mixtures to restrict exports is causing concern among global manufacturers. In an interview, Shoichi Ishii told us that the goal was to ensure a domestic supply in order to improve national security rather than allow private companies to make money from rare earths. He added that this would be the first time in the history of mankind to try and extract mud from deep seabeds for separation and refinement of rare earth elements. As part of its efforts to improve maritime and economic security, the Japanese government has launched a project to increase domestic production of rare earths. Ishii stated that surveys have confirmed the existence of rare-earth rich mud at a depth of between 5,000 and 6,000 meters in Japan's exclusive economy zone (EEZ), near Minamitori Island. Ishii stated that the mud may contain neodymium and dysprosium, both of which are used as motor magnets for electric vehicles, as well gadolinium or terbium used in high-tech products. The mud will be extracted using pipes from a deep-sea research vessel operated by Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. The project, if successful, will launch a trial operation of a system that can recover 350 metric tonnes of mud each day by January 2027. The project has been funded by the government, but no details have been released on the size of investment and estimated reserves.
China boosts petroleum storage amid soft refinery processing: Russell
The pace at which crude oil flowed into China's stockpiles increased in April as slower refinery processing exceeded a decrease in imports.
An overall of 830,000 barrels per day (bpd) was contributed to China's industrial or strategic stockpiles in April, up from 790,000 bpd in March, according to computations based upon main data.
Over the first four months of the year, China, the world's. greatest crude importer, added 700,000 bpd to storages, a. considerable volume that goes some way to weakening the market. view that oil consumption is robust amid a recovering economy.
China does not reveal the volumes of crude streaming into or. out of strategic and commercial stockpiles, however a price quote can. be made by subtracting the quantity of unrefined processed from the. total of unrefined offered from imports and domestic output.
The total crude readily available to refiners in April was 15.13. million bpd, including imports of 10.88 million bpd and. domestic output of 4.25 million bpd.
The volume of unrefined processed by refiners was 14.3 million. bpd, leaving a surplus of 830,000 bpd to be added to storage. tanks.
For the first 4 months of 2024, the total crude offered. was 15.26 million bpd, while refinery throughput was 14.56. million bpd, leaving a surplus of 700,000 bpd.
Refinery processing dropped 3.3% in April from the exact same. month in 2023, the first annual decrease in 20 months, as large. oil companies performed arranged upkeep, while smaller sized. refiners curbed output since of weak profit margins.
It's most likely that refinery throughput will recuperate in May as. plants increase for the peak summertime need season, although the. circumstance is complicated by robust need for some refined. fuels, such as jet fuel and fuel, but softer intake for. others such as diesel.
The concern for the market then becomes whether any increase in. refining will cause increasing need for crude oil imports, or. whether refiners will select to dip into the stockpiles they. have been developing so far this year.
PRICE ASPECT
Much depends upon oil prices, and recent history suggests that. when international costs increase rapidly, or to levels China's refiners. consider expensive, the result is a pullback in imports, permitting. for the lag of around two months to account for when cargoes are. organized to when they are provided.
April's crude oil imports were the weakest considering that January and. came 2 months after rates beginning rallying greatly from. early February onwards, after members of the OPEC+ group of. exporters extended and deepened output cuts.
Global benchmark Brent crude futures surged from a. low of $76.85 a barrel on Feb. 2 to a current peak of $92.18 on. April 12.
This recommends that price pressures may cap the need for. crude by Chinese refiners, and any gains in volumes are most likely. to be focused in reduced oil from Russia and Iran, whose. exports go through Western sanctions, which effectively. limits the number of readily available purchasers.
The increase in main selling prices (OSPs) to a five-month. high by leading exporter Saudi Arabia for cargoes filling in. June may also curb China's oil demand from the kingdom, with. sources pointing to a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in June. freights from May's 45 million barrels.
China's crude imports rose 2.0% in the very first four months of. the year, according to customs information.
Nevertheless, in barrels each day terms this corresponds to a gain of. just 100,000 bpd.
This is well short of the 710,000 bpd rise in demand that. OPEC+ forecast for China for 2024 as a whole in its latest. monthly report, released on May 14.
There is a difference between imports and general need, as. need can be satisfied from stocks or an increase in domestic. crude output.
While domestic oil production is somewhat greater, increasing. 2.1% in the very first 4 months of 2024, it seems that China is. contributing to inventories at a faster speed up until now this year than it. performed in 2023.
The excess of crude readily available over refinery processing in. the first 4 months of 2024 was 830,000 bpd, compared to. 480,000 bpd for the exact same period last year.
The general image that emerges is that China's oil import. development is modest up until now in 2024, and more of those imports are. heading into storage than they carried out in 2023.
The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .
(source: Reuters)