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China boosts petroleum storage amid soft refinery processing: Russell

The pace at which crude oil flowed into China's stockpiles increased in April as slower refinery processing exceeded a decrease in imports.

An overall of 830,000 barrels per day (bpd) was contributed to China's industrial or strategic stockpiles in April, up from 790,000 bpd in March, according to computations based upon main data.

Over the first four months of the year, China, the world's. greatest crude importer, added 700,000 bpd to storages, a. considerable volume that goes some way to weakening the market. view that oil consumption is robust amid a recovering economy.

China does not reveal the volumes of crude streaming into or. out of strategic and commercial stockpiles, however a price quote can. be made by subtracting the quantity of unrefined processed from the. total of unrefined offered from imports and domestic output.

The total crude readily available to refiners in April was 15.13. million bpd, including imports of 10.88 million bpd and. domestic output of 4.25 million bpd.

The volume of unrefined processed by refiners was 14.3 million. bpd, leaving a surplus of 830,000 bpd to be added to storage. tanks.

For the first 4 months of 2024, the total crude offered. was 15.26 million bpd, while refinery throughput was 14.56. million bpd, leaving a surplus of 700,000 bpd.

Refinery processing dropped 3.3% in April from the exact same. month in 2023, the first annual decrease in 20 months, as large. oil companies performed arranged upkeep, while smaller sized. refiners curbed output since of weak profit margins.

It's most likely that refinery throughput will recuperate in May as. plants increase for the peak summertime need season, although the. circumstance is complicated by robust need for some refined. fuels, such as jet fuel and fuel, but softer intake for. others such as diesel.

The concern for the market then becomes whether any increase in. refining will cause increasing need for crude oil imports, or. whether refiners will select to dip into the stockpiles they. have been developing so far this year.

PRICE ASPECT

Much depends upon oil prices, and recent history suggests that. when international costs increase rapidly, or to levels China's refiners. consider expensive, the result is a pullback in imports, permitting. for the lag of around two months to account for when cargoes are. organized to when they are provided.

April's crude oil imports were the weakest considering that January and. came 2 months after rates beginning rallying greatly from. early February onwards, after members of the OPEC+ group of. exporters extended and deepened output cuts.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures surged from a. low of $76.85 a barrel on Feb. 2 to a current peak of $92.18 on. April 12.

This recommends that price pressures may cap the need for. crude by Chinese refiners, and any gains in volumes are most likely. to be focused in reduced oil from Russia and Iran, whose. exports go through Western sanctions, which effectively. limits the number of readily available purchasers.

The increase in main selling prices (OSPs) to a five-month. high by leading exporter Saudi Arabia for cargoes filling in. June may also curb China's oil demand from the kingdom, with. sources pointing to a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in June. freights from May's 45 million barrels.

China's crude imports rose 2.0% in the very first four months of. the year, according to customs information.

Nevertheless, in barrels each day terms this corresponds to a gain of. just 100,000 bpd.

This is well short of the 710,000 bpd rise in demand that. OPEC+ forecast for China for 2024 as a whole in its latest. monthly report, released on May 14.

There is a difference between imports and general need, as. need can be satisfied from stocks or an increase in domestic. crude output.

While domestic oil production is somewhat greater, increasing. 2.1% in the very first 4 months of 2024, it seems that China is. contributing to inventories at a faster speed up until now this year than it. performed in 2023.

The excess of crude readily available over refinery processing in. the first 4 months of 2024 was 830,000 bpd, compared to. 480,000 bpd for the exact same period last year.

The general image that emerges is that China's oil import. development is modest up until now in 2024, and more of those imports are. heading into storage than they carried out in 2023.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .