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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Another deadline dodged
What is important in the U.S. and international markets today by Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large of Finance and Markets Donald Trump unilaterally extended a ceasefire in the Iran War beyond the deadline of Wednesday, but it is unclear whether other parties to the conflict have agreed. This partly explains the lack of reaction from crude oil prices to what was otherwise viewed as a relief sign. Below, I'll explain more. Check out my newest column about why Kevin 'Warsh' may struggle to please Trump as Fed chair. Listen to the Morning Bid Daily Podcast, where I talk about oil's response to the ceasefire and more. Don't forget April 23, when I will be joining Jamie McGeever, my ROI colleague, for a timely discussion on rethinking the safe-haven asset in uncertain times. Register here. Brent crude prices rose to under $100 a barrel on Wednesday, while WTI crude was trading at about $91/bbl. Iran claims that Trump's continued U.S. port blockade is a breach of ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. It is reported that cargo ships were fired at again this morning. It's not clear when or if new talks will begin between the two parties. World stock markets and Wall Street Futures remain optimistic about a possible de-escalation, as they have for the majority of this week. They are now looking for other directions. They're most obviously looking at the vibrant tech sector. South Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese shares continued to reach new highs over the past 24 hours, with Korea's chip-giant SK Hynix making it into the top 20 most valuable companies in the world. Tesla's earnings report tonight, after the bell rings, will probably focus on its energy and solar business. Its robotaxi plans and proposed move into chip design are also likely to be discussed. Intel, which has been the biggest mover in the last month, will also report on Thursday. The chip giant has had one of its best months ever with a 50% increase in stock prices so far this April. Wall Street index futures rose ahead of the Wednesday bell. Kevin Warsh, the Fed's nominee for chairperson, was confirmed by Congress in the last 24 hours. The dollar and Treasury markets remained stable after the hearing. There were no big surprises. Warsh said he was not asked by Trump to make a commitment to lower interest rates and instead focused on his plans to "regime-change" the Fed's framework for policymaking and his long-term desire to reduce the Fed balance sheet. Trump said just before Warsh's speech that he would not be happy if his new appointment did not deliver immediate rates cuts. But with the price pressures on again, this seems like a distant dream. The markets see less than 50% chance that the Fed will resume easing in the remainder of the year. In the meantime, U.S. March retail sales were up more than forecast. Even after removing the gas receipts, retail sales were higher than expected. At least for one month, the economy has seemed to be able to weather the oil shock. UK inflation in March was higher than expected, rising from 3.0% to 3.3%. However, core prices without energy were lower. Chart of the Day Shares of U.S. chipmaker Intel soared by more than 50% in the last month, and more than tripled in the last year. Demand for Intel's chips and servers has risen amid the "worldwide AI buildout," and after the U.S. Government and Nvidia acquired stakes in this once struggling firm. Intel will report its earnings on Thursday amid fears that there may be a shortage of chips. However, this month the company expanded its AI processor partnership with Google and joined Elon Musk’s Terafab AI complex project to produce processors. Watch today's events * U.S. bond auction for 20 years (1 p.m. EDT) * U.S. Corporate Earnings: Tesla, IBM and Moody's Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed here are the author's. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and adheres to a policy of integrity, independence and neutrality.
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Greece announces 500 million Euros in aid to limit the impact of Iran War on households
Greece announced on Wednesday that it would provide 500 million euros (587.55 million dollars) of additional aid to farmers and households suffering from the effects of the Iran War. This was after the primary budget surplus increased for 2025, which provided headroom for new support. KyriakosMitsotakis, the Greek Prime Minister, said that "the government would offer a mixture of emergency and permanent actions." These include extending fuel subsidies through May and fertiliser subsides until August. He announced an 'one-off'?allowance to families with children, and a higher annual assistance for pensioners on low incomes. In a press release, Prime Minister KyriakosMitsotakis stated that this was the best he could do to avoid disrupting the economic equilibrium we've achieved with so much hard work. The economy of the nation is doing better than expected. The stress of shopping at the supermarket and paying for children's expenses, as well as the cost of fuel, is still there. Greece has reported a higher surplus for 2025. This will allow it to provide more assistance to households and farmers who are struggling to pay rising living costs due to the war in Iran, and tensions along the Strait of Hormuz. The economy is recovering from the 2009-2018 debt crisis, but it still relies heavily on Middle East oil imports. As a result, the government already offered subsidies for fuel and fertilisers and discounts for ferry tickets worth a combined total of 300 millions euros. The government has pledged to provide a separate 100 million euro aid each year for five years in order to assist industries and small businesses who are struggling with rising energy costs.
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Executives say that Asian shipowners will cross the Hormuz first before Western companies.
Shipping executives say that Asian shipowners may soon begin to navigate?through Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile U.S. - Iran?ceasefire, as they have higher risk tolerances and are able to pay 'tolls' unlike Western firms who comply with sanctions. Since the end of February, hundreds of tankers and other ships are stuck in the Middle East Gulf, unable to cross. This has caused the largest energy supply disruption ever. Last Saturday, some tankers and cargo vessels managed to escape from the Gulf. However, Iran quickly "pulled the plug" on this move by firing shots at other ships and ordering them to return to the Gulf. On Wednesday, gunfire struck at least three container vessels in the Strait of Gibraltar. Safety is still a concern for companies who are happy to ignore OFAC sanctions. If the issue has been resolved through?government-to-government communication, then can an Indian convoy or a Chinese convoy pass through? Larry Johnson, Mercuria's head of global freight, said that the answer was "probably yes". OFAC is the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Department of Treasury. The ships which have transited have tended to be government-owned vessels benefitting from government-to-government communications with Iran or naval support, which merchant traders do not have, he added. Peter Weernink of SwissMarine said that certain parts of the world would be able?to pass through, and that you will see this more in the coming weeks. We won't?be?able to," he added, naming Indian, Iraqi,?and Chinese vessels. Tehran has also tried to tighten the grip on the Strait of Hormuz by charging tolls with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a sanctioned organization. Andrew Jamieson, the co-head of Gunvor's shipping arm Clearlake said that increased costs and safety concerns may continue to affect?Hormuz travel. The Advanced War Risk Premium is set to increase?in a short time, and crews may not want to take on the risk or demand higher payments. He said, "If you crew does not want to go and they do not feel safe," they should stay home. Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov in Lausanne and Robert Harvey; editing by Kim Coghill
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Sources: Exxon is looking to sell Hong Kong's gas stations
Three people familiar with the matter said that Exxon Mobil, a U.S. energy giant, is "considering" selling its 'gas stations' in Hong Kong. The deal is expected to be worth a few hundred millions dollars. The company has hired a financial advisor and had discussions with a few bidders. Exxon didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Bloomberg reported the first on the sale of the assets. According to people familiar with this matter, Exxon could seek a value between $500 million and $600 million. Oil and gas producer Esso offers a wide range of products?and services in Hong Kong via an extensive network?of service stations?under the Esso name. Exxon opened its first'service station' in Hong Kong in Kowloon in 1926. The company sells fuel through a network?of?about 41 Esso service stations in Hong Kong. Reporting by Trixie Yap and 'Yantoultra Ngui in Singapore and Kane Wu, Hong Kong. Additional reporting by Vallari?Srivastava in Bengaluru. Editing by Shailesh kuber and Louise Heavens.
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After US extended ceasefire with Iran, gold rises and oil falls
Gold prices increased?on Wednesday, as lower oil prices following an extension of a?ceasefire by the U.S. with Iran eased fears about inflation and high interest rates. As of 0809 GMT, spot gold was up 1% at $4,759.63 an ounce after Tuesday's decline to its lowest level in over a year. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery gained 1.3% to $ 4,778.30. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he would extend indefinitely the ceasefire agreement with Iran so as to facilitate further peace talks. This was just hours before it was due to expire. Trump's unilateral announcement was confusing, as it wasn't immediately clear if?Iran, or the U.S. ally Israel, would agree to extend a ceasefire that began two weeks earlier. Edward Meir, Marex analyst, said that the markets perceive a reduction in the level of the crisis with this extension. If the ceasefire is broken and hostilities are resumed, the dollar will strengthen, and oil and interest rates will rise, which should put pressure on gold prices. Following the extension of the ceasefire, stocks rose, the dollar weakened and oil prices fell. Inflation can be fueled by higher crude oil prices, which increase transportation and production costs. Gold is seen as an inflation hedge but high interest rates can make yield-bearing assets more appealing, which reduces the appeal of bullion. Standard Chartered analysts said in a recent note that "price action is still at the mercy Middle East ceasefire headlines, and liquidity requirements." While we acknowledge that the recent increase in prices is fragile and at risk of a correction in the short term, we still expect prices (of precious metals) to recover. We also continue to anticipate gold to "retest" record highs. Kevin Warsh, the nominee to be the Federal Reserve's chief, said on Tuesday that he made no promises about interest rate cuts to Trump. He was trying to assure U.S. Senators who were deciding whether to confirm him to lead a central bank, that he would work independently from?the White House and pursue broad reforms. Silver spot rose by 1.9%, to $78.15 an ounce. Platinum gained 2.2%, to $2,082.15, while palladium rose 2.4%, to $1,570. (Reporting and editing by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru, Mrigank Dahniwala, Ronojoy Mazumdar).
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Water reporting standards are being pushed for by the rise in water-related risks
A lack of a global accounting system that tracks water usage in the same way across the globe makes it difficult to assess risk as climate change and population increase strain freshwater resources. This has prompted a new initiative aimed at promoting a standard approach. Water use, unlike carbon emissions, is reported using a patchwork system of standards and definitions that makes it difficult to compare companies, sectors, and regions. Lauren Enright is the programme manager for water services at SCS Global. She's helping to bring the group together. Investors, auditors and communities who are trying to figure out what companies do with water face real challenges. The initiative, which is backed by the World Resources Institute (WRI), WWF, and the U.N. CEO Water Mandate will launch in April. It's expected to be named Corporate Guidance on Assessing Water Scopes 1 - 3?in Value chains. It is not intended to replace existing reporting regimes, such as the European Union Corporate Sustainability Reporting directive. Instead, it is meant to sit below them and provide a set of common definitions?and core concepts. Water stress is affecting sectors like?technology where data centres have sparked protests in communities around the world. Ida Hempel, a climate-focused investment firm's Ida Hempel, said that the framework would allow investors to turn narrative or qualitative disclosures into "very useful" data. It would enable us to compare specific interventions and companies on a more like-for-like base." Reporting by Simon Jessop. Mark Potter edited the article.
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BHP and China complete supply talks; iron ore firms restock before the holidays
Prices of iron ores rose on Wednesday as steelmakers in China rushed to replenish their stocks before the holiday season. This was despite concerns about a possible increase in'supply' following a resolution of a contract dispute that lasted for months between BHP Group, and China. BHP, world's third largest iron ore supplier said that it had completed iron ore contract negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group, the state buyer of iron ore. Last week, it was reported that CMRG lifted a ban on BHP's procurement of the key ingredient for steelmaking after its top?executives had visited China. Iron ore, the most traded contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trade 0.32 percent higher than its previous closing price of 786.5 Yuan ($115.32). The contract reached its highest level since 'April 8' at 790 Yuan during the session. By 0706 GMT the benchmark May iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had risen 0.28% to $107.2 per ton. This was its highest price since March 30. Analysts at Yongan Futures wrote in a report that "bearish factors are largely priced in" as the term contract negotiations (between BHP & CMRG) have been finalized. Prices will stabilize in the near term as demand is strong in the lead-up to the holidays. Chinese steelmakers usually replenish feedstock before the May Day holiday, which is from?May 1-?5. BHP stated that it expected seaborne ore demand to remain at its current level for the next few years, with a slight decrease in China being offset by growth in emerging economies and recovery across Europe. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking components gained respectively 1.07%?and 0.63%. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar gained 0.31%, hot rolled coils advanced 0.62%, and wire rod slipped 0.06%. Stainless steel fell 0.5%.
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Japan's FY2025 crude output drops to its lowest level since 1968 due to weak demand
Japan's crude?steel production, which is the fourth largest in the world, fell 3.2% to its lowest level since fiscal 1968 in fiscal 2025, due to weak construction demand and slowing exports. The Japan Iron and Steel Federation announced on Wednesday that production fell to 80.33 millions metric tons for the year ending March 31. This is the fourth consecutive year of a decline. Steel?demand remained weak in the construction industry due to labour shortages, high material costs and falling exports, according to an analyst with the federation. The closure of two blast furnaces in 2025 also weighed on production. He said that despite signs of recovery in the automotive and industrial machinery sectors, the Middle East conflict may affect production and car exports due to material shortages. This could also have a negative impact on crude steel. The federation reported that Japan's crude steel output in March fell by 4.1 percent from a year earlier to 6.92 million tons. The output, which was not adjusted for season, increased by?8.2 percent from February. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced earlier this month the crude steel production?is anticipated to fall by?0.7% during the April-June period compared to the same quarter last year due to the slackness in demand from the construction and manufacturing industries. (Reporting and editing by Yuka Obayashi)
SpaceX is seen as a test that will determine whether mega-IPOs succeed or fail
Elon Musk's spaceX could be the break-through that global IPO market needs. Saudi Aramco was the last company to debut on the market with a valuation of over one trillion dollars in 2019.
SpaceX has all the ingredients the IPO market?has been looking for to end a long-term drought of mega-deals. It is a company with a valuation over "trillion dollars", a CEO who enjoys cult like retail support, and exposure to a?high-growth?industry.
Investors' appetite for an IPO of this magnitude is still uncertain. Analysts and experts say that the company's success is unique, so it could only have a limited impact on broader market sentiment.
Brian Jacobsen is the chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.
Here are some charts that show the market's current status and SpaceX IPO's potential: WORLD'S BIGGEST IPO ON THE HORIZON The rocket startup has confidentially filed for a blockbuster listing,?looking to raise $50 billion or more, which could value it at $1.75 trillion, potentially dethroning oil giant Saudi Aramco as the world’s largest IPO. Here are charts showing the current market status and SpaceX's IPO potential:
Samuel Kerr is the global head of equity markets at Mergermarket. He said that SpaceX would be the largest ever IPO.
It will be a test of public market capability in a period of real market turmoil. SpaceX is probably the only business that can list on this market given its tremendous hype.
SpaceX registered confidentially for an IPO - on Wednesday, according to a report citing a reliable source. PIVOTAL TESTING SpaceX's listing - could serve as a bellwether of the IPO market. A positive reception could indicate the long-awaited return of big-ticket deals.
Issuers waited for years as markets were volatile, driven by inflation fears, rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions. Industry hopes that 2026 will see a resurgence of market debuts.
Kat Liu is vice president of IPOX, a research firm that specializes in IPOs.
It would show that the public markets are able to accept large, high-value offerings and validate late-stage pricing on the private market.
TRILLION DOLLAR CLUB Several high profile startups, such as SpaceX, ChatGPT maker OpenAI, and TikTok owner ByteDance have blurred lines between public and private companies with valuations that are comparable to those of the top-tier S&P500 firms.
SpaceX's listing will put it on par with mega-cap giants like Microsoft and Apple, which attract the majority of retail and institutional investor flows.
Elon Musk announced in February that SpaceX acquired his artificial-intelligence startup xAI, in a deal of unprecedented proportions. SpaceX was valued at $1 trillion, and xAI, at $250 billion. This is what a report citing a reliable source said.
The recent xAI integration allows Musk to bundle Starlink, launch and AI into a scarce, mega-story that can support a higher valuation than what the businesses could achieve separately, said Minmo Gahng. Assistant professor of finance, Cornell University.
SpaceX reported that it generated an $8 billion profit last year on revenues between $15 billion and $16 billion, according to a January report citing sources familiar with the issue.
Current State of Play An index that tracks major listings underperformed the equities benchmark in the last 12 months.
Analysts believe that a successful SpaceX debut could help to reopen the door for large, delayed listings, especially in capital-intensive industries which have struggled with attracting public market investors.
Some have a more conservative view of the market's future.
Kerr, from Mergermarket, said that "(SpaceX could) take up so many capacity that other mega issues might decide to wait and not test the same window."
(source: Reuters)