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Investors become nervous as they discover gravity.
Fear of missing out on something triggers large moves Two-way markets: a reminder to speculators The Chinese Lunar New Year could bring in more sales By Pratima Deai and Polina devt LONDON, JANUARY 30 - After hitting record highs this week, gold, silver, and copper prices fell on Friday as investors rushed to lock in their profits, hoping that the aggressive U.S. rate cuts would fade. The dollar also stabilized. On Friday, President Donald Trump announced that he had appointed Kevin Warsh as the new head of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against other currencies, had firmed up in anticipation of Warsh's nomination. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum analyst: "The market believes Kevin Warsh is rational and won't aggressively push for rate reductions." "Generalist investors with different agendas, like protecting capital, are taking profits." Dollar-priced materials could become more expensive to holders of other currencies if the U.S. dollar increases. This could affect demand. Funds that trade using numerical models to generate buy and sell signals use this relationship. INVESTORS CASH-OUT AFTER GOLD AND SILVER RALLIES Profit-taking in the last trading session of January was triggered by the fact that gold and silver were up 17 and 39 percent respectively. This came after a few days of low liquidity, where fear of missing out led to small movements. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that both gold and silver are due for a correction, given their recent surge was highly speculative. At 1201 GMT, gold was down 4.7% to $5,143.40 an ounce and silver lost 11%, dropping from $5,594.80 to $121.60, respectively, after Thursday's records. Independent analyst Ross Norman said, "Precious Metals have found gravity." It's brutal but speculators are reminded that these markets have a two-way nature. Copper, after reaching a record high of $14,527.50 per metric ton, fell 1.1% on Friday, closing at $13,465. Copper has risen 6% this month, after a 11% increase in December. Alice Fox, a Macquarie analyst, said that prices are likely to stay high and volatile for the foreseeable future as money continues to pour into this small and crowded market. Copper, aluminum and other industrial metals will continue to lose value on the exchanges before the Lunar New Year on February 16 when China, the world's largest metals consumer for a year, will be shut down. Price at Panmure said that Chinese punters would not want to take any positions on these volatile markets. "Look what has happened within just 12 hours." (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens; Pratima Dasai)
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Stocks rise after Trump names Kevin Warsh to the Fed
Gold and the dollar fell on Friday as global stocks rose, but the dollar rose. Nominated Kevin Warsh is his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh is a former Fed Governor and is seen as a supporter of lower interest rates. He is also considered one?of the?less radical choices from amongst all those who were suggested. The MSCI World Index was last 0.16% up as European shares rose, despite a drop in Asia-Pacific stocks. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was last 0.72% up, retaining gains made after Trump's announcement. It was on course to end January with a gain of more than 3%. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures declined 0.4%. This is a slight improvement from the earlier declines. After speculation spread that Warsh would be the next Fed Chair, precious metals continued to fall. The selloff was accelerated by Trump's announcement. Gold, which usually benefits when the dollar falls, fell as much as 5% on one of its largest one-day sales in years. Markets React to Trump Picking WARSH Investors are evaluating how Warsh would lead the Fed now that Trump has chosen him. Chris Beauchamp said, "We'll see what happens from here. It's one thing for someone to be appointed and another to become the Chairman of Federal Reserve." Trump may want low interest rates, but he is also aware that the U.S. faces a difficult situation right now, with inflation stubbornly remaining. "We should be able to see signs of weakness in the payrolls, and the unemployment rate rising," he added. Beauchamp suggested that while Warsh may be perceived as "Trump’s man" in the central bank, it is possible he will try to distance himself from Trump once he takes office. Sandra Horsfield is an economist with Investec. She said that Trump announcing the Fed Chair's choice does not mean all uncertainty has been removed. We still wonder if this will be confirmed by the Senate in the near future, as there is still a standoff between some members of the Senate regarding Fed independence and Powell's Subpoena. Horsfield stated that the overall backdrop remains volatile. This includes Iran. Brent crude fell by around 0.6% to $70.31 as oil markets assessed 'geopolitical risk' after Trump signed an executive ordering declaring a?national emergency? and setting up a process for imposing tariffs on goods coming from countries who sell or provide oil to Cuba. Trump also said on Thursday that he planned to speak to Iran in the face of rising tensions. DOLLAR RETREATS from HIGHS The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket?six different currencies, last rose 0.21% to 96.38. This is a slight decline from before Trump's announcement. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 1.8 basis points to 4.249% after trading at a high of 4.279% in earlier sessions. Fed funds futures indicate an implied probability of 84.6% that the U.S. Central?bank will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting, in March. This is slightly less than the 87.5% the day before, according to CME Group's FedWatch. After a turbulent session on Thursday, precious metals' faltering recovery failed to materialize. Silver plunged by 11%, to $103, while gold fell around 5%, to $5129.39 per ounce. Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $82,592 while ether dropped 2.7% to 2,740. (Reporting from Sophie Kiderlin and Gregor Stuart Hunter, in London; additional reporting by Johann Cherian and Topra Chopra; editing by Kevin Liffey & Topra Chopra).
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LyondellBasell targets $1.3 Billion in cost savings following surprise quarterly loss
LyondellBasell, a petrochemicals manufacturer, announced a surprising loss for its fourth quarter on Friday. It said it would save $1.3 billion before the end of 2026 as it continued to 'keep costs under control' despite volatility in energy and feedstock prices. LyondellBasell shares rose by 1.5% during premarket trading, as the company stated that it expected to generate an additional $500 million in cash flow this fiscal year. Chemicals firms have struggled due to a weaker demand in key markets like Europe and the rising costs of raw materials. The strict regulatory environment in Europe has forced businesses to reassess how they do business in that region. Last year, LyondellBasell announced that it would sell four European assets. It also planned to shut down plants in Germany and Texas temporarily for maintenance. In the quarter reported, LyondellBasell’s olefins and polyolefins Americas unit saw its adjusted core profit drop 67% from $164 million to just $64 million. Olefins can be used to make polymers, such as plastic. The?adjusted?core profit of the Intermediates & Derivatives segment (which makes oxyfuels, intermediate chemicals and intermediate chemicals)?fell by 18% from a year ago to $205 millions. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, the company reported an adjusted loss per share of 26 cents for the quarter that ended on December 31. This compares with analysts' estimates of a profit per share of 13 cents. Reporting by Pranav mathur in Bengaluru, Editing by Shailesh kuber
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Mozambique President opens graphite-processing plant owned by Chinese
Mozambique President Daniel Chapo inaugurated a 200,000-metric-ton-per-year graphite-processing plant on Friday at a Chinese mine, as the country boosts its output of the battery mineral. The United States Geological Survey estimates that the annual global production of graphite is 1.6 millions metric tons. Mozambique, meanwhile, is one of world's leading producers of this mineral. It is an?excellent conductor of electricity and heat, and is used to make?batteries and mobile phones for electric cars. China is the largest graphite producer and miner in the world. Chapo said Mozambique was making the most of its resources, including a liquefied gas project worth $20 billion. He said: "Today, we enter the industrial map of the world." "We are not only a raw material supplier, but also a producer, a processor, and an exporter of materials." Chinese company DH Mining started working on the graphite mining in Nipepe, Brazil in 2014. It said it had invested $200 millions in mining and processing facilities. DH Mining's director?Sang Shong stated that the project, located in Mozambique’s northern province of Niassa employs a total of?890 people and is expected to grow?to 2,000 workers in its second phase. Syrah Resource, a company from Australia, and AMG, a Dutch metals firm? both have graphite mines in the neighboring Cabo Delgado Province. Triton Minerals, another Australian company is also developing its Ancuabe Project in Cabo Delgado. (Reporting and writing by Custodio Cosse, editing by Alexander Smith).
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Gold briefly drops below $5,000 due to Fed speculation
Gold prices fell by over 8% on Friday to 'break below $5,000 mark as the dollar strengthened due to the upcoming appointment of the new U.S. Federal Reserve chair. However, the safe-haven material remained on track for its largest monthly gain since 1982 following multiple record highs. As profit-taking took hold, other precious metals have also fallen sharply. Gold spot was down 5% to $5,124.37 per ounce at 1132 GMT. It had fallen earlier in the day to $4,957.54. U.S. gold futures for delivery in February fell by 3.9% to $5118.40. Gold reached a record high of $5,594.82 Thursday, and it is still on track for an 18% gain in this month. It will be the sixth consecutive monthly gain. Capital Economics' Hamad Hussain said that the expected appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, who was perceived to be more hawkish than other candidates, appeared to have put downwards pressure on precious metals prices. Donald Trump will reportedly?disclose his choice for the next Fed chair on Friday. Former Fed Governor Warsh is seen as a leading candidate. Warsh has advocated for a smaller Fed's balance sheet in contrast to Trump's preference for looser monetary policies. The U.S. Dollar rose on Friday. It clawed back some of the slide this week to a 4-year low. This made dollar-priced Gold more expensive for foreign buyers. The physical gold premiums in India reached their highest level in over a decade due to a strong demand for investment ahead of an expected duty hike. In China, premiums jumped following a surge in jewellery and investment demand. Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said: "We see gold falling far below today's price, but we also see a recovery, and averaging $5,375 by 2026. It will reach a peak of $6400 in the fourth quarter." Silver spot was down 11.7% to $102,57 per ounce, after falling as low as $95.99. Metals have surged by 42% in the last month and reached a new record of $121.64 this Thursday. Norman said: "Although the rise in silver was largely based on sound fundamentals, I believe there is a clear speculative overstimulation in the market. After hitting a record-high of $2,918.80 an ounce on Monday, spot platinum fell 10.9% to $2343.40 per ounce. Palladium fell 8.4% to $1838.14. (Reporting from Pablo Sinha, Bengaluru Additional reporting and editing by Swati verma)
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How strong is too Strong?
By Anna Szymanski 30th January - What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. From the Editor Hello Morning Bid readers! The U.S. maintains that it has a "strong dollar policy" but few are able to agree exactly what this means. The dollar fell to its lowest level since early-2022 on Tuesday. This move was initially sparked by Friday's expectations of a joint U.S. and Japanese?intervention in order to prop up yen. After President Donald Trump said that the dollar would "find its levels" in response to the currency's decline, the decline intensified. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then helped stabilize the currency by reiterating U.S. Government's "strong dollar" policies. Is this a reversal? Not necessarily. Even if a currency is depreciating, it can still be considered strong - particularly if the currency has appreciated by almost 50% over the past decade. If the administration intends to eventually put downward pressure on the supposedly too-valuated dollar, then they may end up with more than they bargained. Investors are, however, more optimistic about the dollar's future this morning. Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh is now the frontrunner in the race to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. He has been a critic of current central bank but is seen as less supportive of radical monetary ease than other candidates. He said that he will announce his decision later today. Unsurprisingly, this week the yen was one of the most active currencies against the dollar. Japan's currency rose to a value of 152 dollars per yen on Tuesday. However, it has since lost some of its gains. The big move could suggest that no intervention is needed, but the history shows that this is not true. The transatlantic exchange rate, which is crucial to the euro's future, briefly rose above $1.20 for the first four years. Europe will be watching this closely, though, as too much strength may make it difficult for EU exporters and the European Central Bank to meet next Thursday. In the midst of the FX turmoil, global trade agreements, diplomatic agreements, and energy deals continue to be negotiated - but not with the U.S. This week, the EU and India signed a long-awaited deal, and Britain and China celebrated a'reset' in their relations after Keir starmer, Prime Minister, and President Xi Jinping, pledged to increase economic cooperation. The European countries also announced a joint agreement to develop a vast offshore network to reduce their dependence on U.S. LNG imports. As we stay on the subject of energy, U.S. gas prices rose as a powerful Arctic storm swept through the United States. This spike in prices has also been felt on overseas markets, underlining the globalization of U.S. LNG trade. Energy world attention is now focused on the Middle East where an American "armada' has been sailing toward Iran. Prices fell early on Friday as Washington and Tehran continued to negotiate. However, the rising tensions in the Middle East have helped drive up oil prices around 15% since January. Crude is unlikely to leave its "narrow" price range unless there's a significant action taken in Iran which has a lasting impact on global supply and demand. This week, Wall Street saw the earnings of a number of large-cap tech companies, such as Meta, Microsoft and Apple. The results were mixed but one thing that stood out was the fact that investors would be fine with massive AI expenditure, as long as growth is robust. The Fed meeting was expected to be another big event in the financial week, but the outcome was a bit of an apathy fest. As expected, the Fed kept rates steady and there was no big news at the press conference. Powell couldn't speak much on the subject of Fed independence but his silence says a lot about the current situation the central bank is in. Powell did give some advice to his replacement, but now he, along with the rest of financial community, is eager to confirm who it will be. Check out Open Interest for more news on commodities and markets. Open Interest has a wealth of information on commodities and markets. You can find out which high-flying stocks are currently catching the attention of investors, where there is a supply glut in oil, and how the future may be written by nuts and bolts. Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, listen to and listen to as we enter the weekend. Please contact me at to let me know what you think. This weekend we are reading... Mike Dolan, ROI Finance & Markets columnist: NYU Professors Viral Aharya and Toomas laarits write for CEPR VoxEU that the increase in U.S. Treasury Yields since the tariff shock last April is due to a drop in the "convenience" yield tied to the safe asset status. RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. Nat Bullard’s 200-slide presentation, which he presents every year, contains all of the most recent data and charts about energy and decarbonization. JAMIE MCGEEVER (ROI MARKETS COLUMNIST): "Bubbles As a Feature Not a bug", a new Carlyle Group analysis, contextualizes today's AI boom in the context of the history and development of transformative technologies. They argue that the bubble will eventually deflate or pop, but this is part of the process. "The bottom-line is that bubbles have always been a part of the technological revolution." CLYDE RUSSELL is a columnist for ROI Asia Commodities & Energy. This report by Australia's electricity operator shows that renewables have reached a record. They supplied over half of the nation's energy during a quarter. This report, which coincides with lower wholesale prices shows that a high penetration of renewables can be reliable and cost-effective. ANDY HOME is the ROI Metals columnist. A new TradingPedia study shows that hybrid and electric cars account for over 25% of European car sales. The data is broken up by country and manufacturer and illustrated using some neat graphics. GAVIN MAGUIRE is a columnist for ROI Global Energy Transformation. A new article by Infrastructure Investor?argues that a global shortage in gas turbines will limit the growth of U.S. electricity system. Listening to... ANNA SZYMANSKI: Editor-in charge of ROI, ANNA SZYMANSKI said that on the Morning Bid podcast Mike Dolan and Amanda Cooper talked about the Fed's latest meeting, the tensions in Iran, and what the biggest takeaways were from this week’s mega-cap earnings. Subscribe to Morning Bid and you'll get Mike's weekly preview this Sunday. We're always watching... RON BOUSSO is a columnist for the ROI Energy website. Clyde Russell, a fellow ROI Energy writer, joined Gulf Intelligence's daily podcast to talk about how China boosted its strategic oil reserves by increasing crude purchases in 2013. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter Website You can find us on LinkedIn. X. Opinions are the sole responsibility of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski)
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Exxon surpasses Wall Street's Q4 profit targets with the help of lower-cost oil production
Exxon Mobil's fourth-quarter earnings were reported on Friday. Lower-cost oil production from the Permian basin?and Guyana?helped to boost the number one U.S. oil producer. Results of the No. 1 U.S. Oil Producer. Exxon reported adjusted earnings of $1.71 per common share for the quarter October-December, exceeding LSEG's consensus estimate, which was $1.68. Brent oil futures fell 19% in the last year due to an oversupplied crude market. Exxon's 2025 full-year adjusted profit fell by 10% but a smaller margin as the company concentrated on cost cutting. Exxon CEO Darren Woods stated in a press release that "we're capturing a greater value from each?barrel or molecule produced and building growth platforms on a large scale - creating a runway of profitable growth up to 2030 and beyond". The company reported that annual upstream production had reached its highest level in over 40 years. Woods is likely to be asked about the company's re-entry plans into Venezuela during an earnings call on Friday. This follows the U.S. capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his removal earlier this month. U.S. president Donald Trump has encouraged American companies to invest billions of dollars in Venezuela?to revitalize the oil industry. Woods called the nation "uninvestable" in a meeting at the White House with Trump and other oil executives. He said the company required investment protections as its assets had already been expropriated two times. According to a source who is familiar with Exxon, the company is still open to sending a technical team into the country to explore their options. Exxon paid out $17.2 billion as dividends last year and purchased $20 billion worth shares. The company stated that it plans to buy back the exact same amount of shares through 2026. In a snapshot of earnings released earlier this month, the company indicated that higher margins in the refining industry could boost fourth-quarter profits by $300-$700 millions. The company also announced asset write-downs of $1.7 billion. Exxon capital expenditures amounted to $29 billion in the last year. According to the oil company, capex for this year will range between $27 billion to $29 billion. Sheila Dang, reporting from Houston; Nathan Crooks, Tom Hogue and Tom Hogue are editing.
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Muthoot Finance, India closes bond sale worth $600 Million
Muthoot Finance, India's largest gold finance company, announced in a Friday notice to stock exchanges that it had accepted bids totaling $600 million for bonds with maturities of four years and six months. Two merchant bankers have said that the company will offer investors a yield below its initial price guidance, which was 6.1250%. Muthoot Finance stated in a?notice that "the?net proceeds of each issue of notes shall be used by?the?issuer to the extent permitted by the ECB Guidelines" for onward lending. CreditSights, a financial research firm, rates the "market perform" rating at?5.75%. It cites the strong fundamentals of the company as the reason for this. Muthoot Finance will raise $600 million in August 2025 through a bond issue similar to this one, and $150 million more via a second reissue of the same bond in October. CreditSights stated in a report that we can expect a similar pattern for the current bond. $750 million is likely to be too much money for the issuer in one quarter. A benchmark new issue will therefore be expected the next quarter. Bankers say that the bonds will be rated 'Ba1' (by Moody's Investors Service) and 'BB+' (by S&P), in accordance with the issuer's rating. This is the third sale of dollar bonds from India in this year, after EXIM Bank raised $1.6 billion and an Indian subsidiary of ReNew Energy Global (a U.S. listed company) raised $1.6 billion. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Dharamraj Dhutia).
Bousso: ROI-Oil is not able to break through the range of its current price because it needs a shock from Iran's supply, but a tough talk.
Even though oil prices rose 15% in January on the back of fears that a new U.S. attack on Iran was imminent, they remain in a narrow range. A well-supplied oil market makes it unlikely that either side will be able to push prices higher. It would take a massive, sustained action to make a significant impact on the global supply-demand imbalance.
Brent crude futures are at their highest level since July?last year. This puts the global benchmark in line for its largest monthly gain since January 20,22, when Russian troops were preparing to enter Ukraine. A series of major disruptions has collided with an escalating risk geopolitically in the Middle East. The first was the decline in Venezuelan exports after the U.S. arrested Nicolas Maduro. According to Kpler data analytics, Caracas's crude oil exports averaged 605,000 barrels a day in January. This is below the average for 2025 of 780,000 bpd. The country is struggling to revive its oil industry. A power outage in Kazakhstan halted production at the Tengiz oil field, 'one of the largest in the world,' on January 18. Although operations have resumed, it is unlikely that the field will return to its production levels of over 900,000.?bpd prior to the outage before mid-February. The U.S. is still recovering from a drop of up to 2,000,000 bpd, or 15% of the national supply during last weekend's severe weather.
The setbacks in January caused a significant hit to the global?supply, and it is likely that some of these outages will last for several weeks or months.
The combined effect has helped lift prices. However, this gain was capped by the rising production in other parts on the global market. This includes from?key OPEC producer. This surge in supply in recent months has pushed prices down.
The International Energy Agency has forecast a massive oversupply of 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026. This projection is supported by the growing onshore and off-shore inventories.
IRAN TENSIONS ARE ON THE RISK Despite President Donald Trump’s increasing threats to attack Iran and the massive U.S. Military buildup in the area, the oil price has been under pressure in recent days.
It is impossible to predict what will happen. Will Washington attack Iran? How forcefully will Washington attack Iran? How would Tehran respond?
The stakes on the oil market are high.
Iran, OPEC’s fourth largest producer, pumped 3.3 millions bpd (roughly 3% of the global crude) in 2025. Tehran has threatened to retaliate if the U.S. strikes, and this includes hitting neighboring states. This raises the possibility of wider disruptions in a region where energy exports account for nearly 20% of global demand.
The markets are certainly on edge. The CBOE crude index volatility, which measures market expectations based on put and call options rose sharply, from 30 to 50 on Thursday. It was at its highest level since the Israel-Iran War last June when it reached 77.
GEOPOLITICAL RISK PREMIUM
Together, recent physical outages as well as rising Middle East tensions provide a?strongly bullish backdrop' for crude. Why hasn't the recent physical outages and rising Middle East tensions created a bullish backdrop for crude?
Investors are pricing only a "modest" geopolitical premium given the global glut of supply.
Remember that prices were also confined to a narrow range in the past year despite the Israel-Iran War, a wave Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil installations, and Trump's 'Liberation Day tariff announcement.
What would it take for prices to reach triple-digits? A regional conflagration that severely disrupts flow would be needed to create a doomsday situation.
The oil market will not react as quickly to political tensions if they are not addressed. Today, traders must see enough supply losses to offset the overhang of supply - which is a tall order.
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(source: Reuters)