Latest News
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The new Bank of Korea head signals a possible hawkish shift in the face of rising import costs
Shin Hyun Song, the nominee for the Bank of Korea Governor position, said on Wednesday that the central bank may have to tighten monetary policy if the supply-side shocks caused by the Iran War lead to persistent inflationary pressure. "A major test is about to take place." "I believe that price pressures will persist in the current Middle East situation, where the crisis hasn't been resolved quickly," Shin replied when questioned by a legislator about the direction of policy at a confirmation hearing for the parliamentary chamber in Seoul. "If it persists over a long period of time, it gets reflected on inflation expectations, core inflation and leads to overall?inflation then I think monetary policy will have a role." His comments coincide with Asia's fourth largest economy, which is struggling with lower growth and higher prices due to the Middle East conflict. The conflict could cause a greater supply shock for the economy than expected. On April 10, the central 'bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%, in the final policy decision overseen by Governor Rhee. His term ends on?April 20, 2019. Shin was asked if there is a greater risk of inflation due to rising import costs, and he replied that price stability was the bank's top priority to maintain economic growth. Shin reversed his neutral position on the currency he had previously taken. He warned against a "sharp deterioration" and vowed to intervene in the event of excessive volatility. Reporting by Cynthia Kim Editing By Ed Davies
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Asian stocks reach a six-week high on the hope of US-Iran Peace Talks
As the dollar stabilized after seven days of losses, Asian stocks followed Wall Street's lead. After the weekend's failed negotiations, President Donald Trump stated that talks with Iran may resume in Pakistan within the next two day after Washington imposed a blockade against Iranian ports. Both Pakistani and Iranian officials said that negotiations could resume. The markets were calmed by signs that the diplomatic engagement will continue, and benchmark oil prices fell below $100 per barrel. Brent crude futures dropped 0.7% to $94.13 per barrel after falling almost 5% over night. Stock investors rejoiced, as MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 1.5% to its highest level in the past six weeks. Japan's Nikkei climbed by 1.2%, to 58.561 points. This is close to the record high set in late February of 59.332.43. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and China rose by 1.2% each. Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said, "The impressive price movement in risk assets shows markets are keen to look past the immediate 'impact' of the Middle East Conflict." There is an increasing expectation that the standoff can be resolved soon, allowing for the U.S. government to declare victory before stimulating the economic activity ahead of the midterm elections. Overnight, Wall Street saw the Nasdaq climb 2% for its 10th consecutive day of gains. The S&P 500 was also flirting with a new record high. The U.S. producer data on inflation also showed some encouraging signs, as prices increased less than economists had expected in March. This helped to temper fears about 'war-driven inflation. Investor optimism about the Iran War ending soon supported Treasuries. Wednesday, the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 1 basis point to 3.704% after falling 3 bps overnight. The 10-year yield also fell 1 bp to 4.2439% after falling 4 bps overnight. The U.S. Dollar, a safe haven currency, has stabilised overnight after falling for the seventh consecutive session. The euro remained at $1.1791, after hitting a six-week high of $1.1811 over night. The price of gold increased by 0.1%, to $4.846 per ounce. The International Monetary Fund lowered its outlook for growth on Tuesday, warning that the global economy could be on the verge of recession if this conflict intensifies. Reporting by Stella Qiu, Editing by Kevin Buckland
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Prices of oil fall for the second day in a row on hopes that US-Iran negotiations may resume
Oil prices dropped for a second day on Wednesday, as the U.S. and Iran resumed peace talks. This could allow the supply to be released from the Middle East region that is currently trapped due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Brent crude futures dropped 52 cents or 0.55% to $94.27 per barrel at 0054 GMT, after dropping 4.6% the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was down $1.04 or 1.1% to $90.24 after falling 7.9% in the previous session. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that talks to end the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran may resume in Pakistan within the next two day after negotiations failed over the weekend. Washington imposed a blockade against Iranian ports following the failure of the negotiations. The optimism that talks will eventually resolve the conflict, and allow crude oil and fuel to flow freely has been boosted by this. The war has closed the Strait of Hormuz - a vital waterway that carries crude oil and refined products out of the Gulf, to buyers in Asia and Europe. Sources said that despite a two week ceasefire, the transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. Only a fraction the number vessels used to travel through the waterway prior to the war. An official from the United States said that a U.S. destroyer prevented two oil tankers leaving Iran on February 2. The Schork Group stated in a report that "while diplomatic headlines indicate the?possibility' of renewed U.S.Iran talks, and even a temporary easement of transit restrictions," the actual reality is still fragmented. The result is that the market continues to price options around disruptions in flow, rather than returning to equilibrium. "The result is a market that continues to price optionality around flow disruption rather than a return to equilibrium." The Energy Information Administration is expected to release official U.S. inventories data at 10:30 am ET. ET (1430 GMT). A poll indicated that U.S. crude stockpiles are?expected to be slightly higher last week while distillate and gasoil inventories will likely fall, according to the poll. According to sources familiar with American Petroleum Institute data, U.S. crude inventories rose for the third consecutive week on Tuesday.
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Minmetals: China copper consumption will grow 3.7% per year until 2035
The consumption of refined copper in the world's largest metals market, China, shows no signs of peaking. It could increase by an average 3.7% annually over the next decade. China's growth in demand this year is expected to be much smaller at 1%. Zuo Haoen said at the World Copper Conference, in Santiago. He cited a slowdown in the energy transition, especially solar power that uses copper, and high copper prices. According to Minmetals "most realistic" scenario, Chinese copper consumption will increase by 3.7% per year, reaching 22.95 millions metric tons in 2035. This is a 43% increase from 16 million metric tonnes in 2025. Zuo noted that China had a lot of ground to make up in terms if 'per capita copper consumption' compared with developed economies. * The 'Minmetals' forecast is based upon a population projection of 1,35 billion in China by?2035. "Even if there were a mild population decline in the future, copper demand would remain substantial," Zuo stated. Reporting by Tom Daly, Editing by Neil Fullick
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Maine approves the first US moratorium against big data centers
Maine lawmakers passed a bill which 'could be the first U.S. State to impose a moratorium on the construction of new data centers. The bill still requires the final approval of Democratic Governor Janet Mills. It would freeze approvals until October 2027 for data centers that require more than 20 megawatts. A state-appointed council will then analyze their impact on local grids, electricity bills, and?air?and water. The bill was passed by the House with a vote of 79 to 62 and cleared the Senate later that same day 21-13. The Governor Mills office did not respond immediately to a Tuesday request for comments. Mills has insisted on an exception for a smaller project that is?underdevelopment, and which reuses existing infrastructure that wouldn't have a significant impact on the electricity grid or energy costs. Maine will be a test-case for other states who have been discussing similar measures. As of now, 11 states have considered legislation to halt or restrict data center development. After a strong backlash from Big Tech companies against their proposals for data centers, the Trump Administration last month had these companies sign a voluntary pledge that they would pay?the cost?of?new electricity production to power their data centres. The question of how to deal with the explosion of data centers is not a partisan issue. Two 'Democratic' lawmakers, Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, introduced legislation last month to stop all construction of data?centers unless Congress passes legislation on AI?safety. Republican Senator Josh Hawley from?Missouri, and Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal also introduced legislation aimed to protect ratepayers against data-center related energy bill spikes. (Reporting from Valerie Volcovici and Aditya soni in Washington; editing by Pooja desai).
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EU executive: EU measures to ease the pain of expensive energy must be dated.
Valdis Dombrovskis, European Economic Commissioner, said that the measures taken by European governments to reduce the impact of high energy prices on consumers and businesses must have an end date and should be aimed at avoiding the pitfalls of the 'energy crisis of 2022. Dombrovskis, speaking at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that any measures taken to reduce the high price of fossil fuels as a result of U.S. and Israeli war against Iran must not increase demand. "One of the key lessons from the previous energy crisis was that many measures were not sufficiently targeted and stayed in place too long. This made them more expensive fiscally than they needed to be. "This is what we want to prevent now," Dombrovskis stated in a discussion with IMF European Department Head Alfred?Kammer. He said that higher debt, deficits and interest rates than during the 2022 energy crisis due to Russia's war in Ukraine make it more important for EU government to avoid expensive, long-term measures to cushion energy prices spikes. "We are trying to emphasize that all measures must have clear sunset clauses, so they can be limited in time. He said that they should also avoid increasing the demand for oil and natural gas when it is expected to be decreasing. "The problem is that broad measures such as tax cuts across the board are easier to implement politically and administratively. Dombrovskis stated that "targeted measures require the definition of eligibility thresholds which requires more effort." He said that "given today's tighter financial and fiscal conditions, we need to be more focused and targeted" in our response. Some EU countries are taking some of this advice to heart. Germany announced on Monday a fuel price reduction for consumers and businesses of 1.6 billion euros over two months. France, on the other hand, said that any assistance would only be given to sectors in greatest need. (Reporting and editing by Deepa Babyington, Jan Strupczewski)
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Oil drops as US-Iran hopes are renewed. Wall Street reaches new highs
The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday and other Wall Street indices also advanced, as prospects for new talks between the United States of America and Iran also dragged down oil prices and U.S. dollars. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that talks in Pakistan could resume over the next two days after they had broken down over weekend. Pakistani and Iranian officials said that talks could resume, with Iran's nuclear activities and international sanctions on the agenda. The S&P 500 ended the day at 6,966.78 after gaining 1.17% according to preliminary data. The S&P 500 closed at 6,966.78 points, a record level compared to its closing level of 6978.60 late in January. The blue-chip index closed Monday's session at a level higher than before the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.66% to 48,535.39 while the Nasdaq Composite grew by 1.95% to 23,635.92. Burns McKinney is the portfolio manager of NFJ Investment Group in Dallas. The STOXX 600 index in Europe has gained 0.99% for the day but is still?below the close of February 27, the morning before Israel and the U.S. launched their strikes against Iran. The International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth forecast on Tuesday. BlackRock, the $14 trillion asset manager, reported a first-quarter profit increase that drove its stock higher by more than 3%. This helped it recover some of its losses this year. Citigroup's shares rose by more than 3% after it beat the first-quarter profit estimate. JPMorgan?also beat expectations, but its stock fell 0.8%. Dollar Dips The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies such as the yen, euro and yen) has fallen to within striking range of its February?levels. It fell 0.24% to 98.10 on Tuesday. Since the beginning of hostilities, the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency has pushed the currency up. On Tuesday, it fell as low as 97.978 - its lowest level since the first day of trading after the war started. "You've got very clear direction coming from the Trump Administration that they're searching for an exit here, and that's playing in to market expectations that eventually there will be a symbol deal between the U.S. Data on inflation from the U.S. The Labor Department added to the pressure on the dollar. The Producer Price Index for Final Demand (PPI), which measures the price of final goods, rose by 0.5% in the last month. This was below the 1,1% rise predicted in an economist poll. OIL BACKS DOWN Prices of oil fell because the expectation that a new dialogue would end the "war" outweighed any concerns about supply disruptions. Brent crude futures settled on $94.79 per barrel, down $4.57 or 4.6%. West Texas Intermediate crude ended at $91.20 a barrel, down $7.80 or 7.87%. Both benchmarks were trading above $100 per barrel only a day before the U.S. started a blockade of Iran’s ports. This angered Tehran and added uncertainty regarding the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. In the first week of April, a Bank of America survey of fund managers revealed that investors expected oil prices to reach $84 per barrel by the end of this year. TREASURIES FINE BUT INFLATION? REMAINS CONCERN U.S. Treasuries fined up on the optimism that the war would end soon, but trading remained subdued. The yields have been moving lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond has dropped 4.9 basis points and is now at 4.248%. The yields on two-year Treasury bonds, which usually move in tandem with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, have risen more than 35 basis point since late February, as rising oil prices are fueling inflation fears. Investors are preparing for the possibility of major central banks reversing their course and shifting towards hikes instead of cuts this year. (Additional reporting from Niket Nishant in Bengaluru, Avinash in Singapore and Rae Wee at the Singapore Embassy; editing by Mark Potter and Jan Harvey)
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Brazilian steelmaker CSN moves ahead with sale of cement units
According to two people with knowledge of the matter, Brazilian steelmaker CSN wants to sell its cement unit for over 10 billion Reais ($2 bn). Talks are underway with local and international players including Brazil's Votorantim, J&F S.A. (which also controls JBS), and Chinese companies Anhui Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement. Huaxin Cement acquired a Brazilian firm in 2024. Sinoma International is also involved. Valor Economico, a Brazilian newspaper, reported on the interest of these Chinese groups earlier that day and was independently confirmed by. CSN, Votorantim and J&F refused to comment. Anhui Conch Huaxin and Sinoma have not responded to requests for comment. According to a source, Votorantim may bid for the 'cement maker alone or with a partner should it decide to pursue acquisition. According to the same source, who requested anonymity due to the nature of the discussions, J&F is discussing a possible?offer for 10 billion reais. CSN has decided to 'divest' certain assets as part of its effort to reduce debt. CSN's Chief Financial Officer Marco Rabello said recently that the company expects to sell its cement unit CSN Cimentos and a stake in its logistics company before the third quarter, raising potentially up to 18 billion reals. Rabello said CSN also 'hired Morgan Stanley for advice?on the sale?of control?of CSN Cimentos, and that Bradesco and Citibank were mandated to provide advice on the process involved with its logistics company. Luciana Magnalhaes, Brad Haynes, and Aurora Ellis edited the report.
Sources: Sinopec purchases Russian oil to replace Mideast supplies after US waiver
Sinopec, the state-owned oil company of China, has purchased Russian crude oil in order to replace Middle Eastern oil after a temporary suspension of sanctions by the United States to ease global supply shortages.
Sinopec purchased between 8 and 10 cargoes a year of ESPO blend oil from the eastern port Kozmino. Another source estimated that Sinopec bought about 10 cargoes a year of ESPO.
Each ESPO shipment is 740,000 barrels.
Sinopec purchased the cargoes for a premium of between $8 and $10 per barrel over ICE Brent. Before the Iran conflict, Russian crude was traded at a discount ranging from $8 to $10 per barrel.
Sources spoke under condition of anonymity.
As part of the U.S. Treasury Department's efforts to control energy prices in the U.S. and Israel war with Iran, a 30-day waiver expired on April 11.
This waiver prompted Sinopec and PetroChina's trading arms to inquire about possible purchases with suppliers. Since October, they had stopped purchasing Russian crude by sea due to Western sanctions.
Since then, it was not clear if PetroChina had purchased seaborne cargoes.
Sinopec didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment.
Big Middle East Exposure
Sinopec is the world's largest oil refiner and sources about half of its crude oil from the Middle East. This leaves it vulnerable to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S./Israeli war against Iran.
Sinopec announced last month that it would cut runs in March by 5% due to the disruption. It also said that they were evaluating the possibility of buying Russian oil under waiver.
Kpler data revealed that China's imports of Russian crude oil by sea in March were 1,82 million barrels per day, down from the record-breaking 1.92million barrels per day set in February. The imports for April are currently at 1,92 million bpd.
The waiver from the U.S. boosted the?demand of Indian refiners, who bought?millions barrels of Russian crude oil at sea. The market expects Washington to extend its waiver, despite the fact that it has not made an announcement. Reporting by Siyi Liu, Chen Aizhu and Florence Tan in Singapore. Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Florence Tan.
(source: Reuters)