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Will they or will they not?
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Investors wore their 'risk-on' hats on Monday as the prospect of an 'end to the Iran war, and opening the Strait of Hormuz was ever closer. Stocks in Tokyo and Taipei reached record highs and oil prices and U.S. dollars fell. There are also doubts, particularly after U.S. president Donald Trump downplayed hopes of an imminent breakthrough. He noted that he had instructed his representatives to not rush into any deal with Iran, even though pressure is increasing to find a resolution. Liquidity will be low as traders focus on the headlines. Investors are jittery over the will-they-won’t-they saga, but?in the end, it is a question of when and not if a settlement is reached to end this nearly three-month conflict. Shipping data revealed that two liquefied gas tankers were exiting the Strait of?Hormuz. Meanwhile, a supertanker carrying Iraqi crude bound for China had left the Gulf after being stranded in the Gulf for almost?three months. The reality is, a resolution will not 'push oil prices?back to the levels before the war. And the energy supply chain may take some time to recover. So inflation concerns are going nowhere, and neither are calls for rates that are higher, longer. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2027. This would be a "stark reversal" from the two rate reductions that were anticipated this year, before the war started. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact U.S.-Iran talks
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Indian retailers increase fuel prices for the fourth time in a row to curb losses
Dealers said that India's state-owned fuel retailers raised diesel prices by 2.71 rupees ($0.0283) and petrol by 2.61 rupees per litre, marking the fourth increase in a month to recover some losses caused by higher crude oil costs as a result of the Iran War. Indian state fuel retailers who control 90% of the Indian market began increasing pump prices on May 15, after elections were completed in certain key states. Since then, the state companies have increased?the price of petrol and diesel by approximately 7.8% and 8.6% respectively. New Delhi petrol will cost 102.12 rupees per litre, and diesel 95.20 rupees. India, which is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, has been hit by rising crude prices as well as supply disruptions following the closure of Strait of Hormuz. New Delhi also implemented austerity measures in order to curb fuel consumption and control its oil import bill, as policymakers prepare for a prolonged shock. Prices vary across states because of local taxes. State retailers have also suffered a rise in?fuel losses as customers switch to retail pumps that are cheaper, leading to shortages. IOC said in a statement on Saturday that its retail sales for the period of May 1-22 were up?by 18% compared to a year earlier and petrol sales had increased by 14%. $1 = 95.6890 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Sonali Paul and Nidhi Palyekar from New Delhi)
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Russell: China's thermal coal production drops, but prices of imported coal in Asia rise amid the Iran war.
Although the Iran war has impacted crude oil and natural gas prices, its impact on coal has been muted. Prices for thermal grades are quietly rising to multi-year heights. The conflict between the United States of America and Iran has led to the loss of about 10% of world crude oil, and a fifth of LNG, but thermal coal supplies remain largely unaffected. Even though the cost of shipping and producing has increased due to higher fuel prices. Coal prices are not solely driven by the?Iran War. Other factors, such as low Chinese production and Indonesian regulations, may be more influential. According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's seaborne thermal coal imports are expected to have their best month since December in May. The imports of thermal coal in Asia are expected to hit 76.26 millions metric tons by May, up 23 percent from April. This is also higher than the 72.83 million that were imported in May 2012. All of the top buyers in the region have seen gains. China, the largest coal importer in the world, is on course to receive 22.63 millions tons of seaborne thermal coal, up from 16.3 million tons in April, and the highest since January. China's appetite to import is driven by a weaker domestic production. April production was 385.63 millions tons, down from 440.62 in March and also 1% lower than April of last year. China's first four-month output fell by 0.1%, to 1.58 billion tonnes. The fact that China's thermal electricity production, which is largely coal-fired?rose by 3.6% during the first four month of the year suggests that the supply-demand balance in China has been tightened, encouraging imports. The Shanxi coal mine disaster, the worst in 17 years at a metallurgical mine that killed 82 people last Friday may cause a further shortage of coal as authorities increase safety inspections in both thermal coal and coking coal mining. China's increasing import demand has helped to lift prices?of grades it seeks. The commodity price reporting -agency Argus assessed Indonesian coal, which had an energy content 4,200 kilocalories/kilogram (kcal/kg), at $64.43 a tonne in the week ending May 22. This was a three year high and up by 42% from the end of last. Kpler predicts that India, as the second largest importer of thermal coal, will see arrivals of 13,78 million tons in May. This is the highest since June last years and 7.3% more than the 12,84 million recorded in April. Last week, heat waves drove electricity demand to new records. This boosted demand for coal-fired generators. INDONESIA CHANGES The world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia, announced regulatory changes last week that will have a significant impact on the way cargoes are traded. Indonesia intends to "take control" of the coal trade, by directing exports via a state-owned company that will control contracts and price. The government has said that it will honor existing long-term agreements, but it has also stated it reserves the rights to review the prices of such deals. By implementing a state control on exports, the government hopes to?stop under-invoicing' and collect more revenue. It's possible that the trade flow will be affected if there is still uncertainty about how the new system works in practice. Japan's thermal coal imports are expected to increase from 6.63 millions tons in April to 7.59 million tonnes in May. South Korea's arrivals will be 6.73 million tons, which is the highest since January, and up from 4.79 million tons in April. Both countries in North Asia are among the top four coal importers, and they are also the best positioned to switch from LNG imported natural gas to coal-fired electricity generation. Due to the Iran War, both spot and contract LNG prices are likely to rise sharply. Japan and South Korea may therefore seek ways to maximize coal-fired power generation. The price of high grade Australian thermal coal has risen as a result. The weekly assessment of Newcastle?Port rose to $133.09 per ton during the week ending May 22. This is up from $131.80 and only slightly below the 18-month-old high of $140.53 set in early April. Australia is the second largest coal exporter and may be in a better position to capitalize on any disruptions to Indonesian coal shipments due to regulatory changes. Its lower-grade coal could replace Indonesian coal. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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New Zealand Pro surfers halted by 'wildlife injury' to photographer
The World Surf League event was put on hold for several hours after a photographer who was shooting the event suffered an injury from what organizers believe to be a shark or sea lion bite. The WSL announced that the New Zealand Pro semi final between Brazilian world champions Yago Dore and Italo Fereira in Raglan had been halted because the in-water camera needed medical attention after suffering puncture wounds. Renato Hickel, WSL Tours and Competition Vice President said that "this morning one member of the water photography group suffered a wildlife injury." He's fine, he is on his way to a hospital. He is in stable condition. We're in constant contact with him." Hinkle told the?event broadcast earlier that they weren't sure what type of animal caused the injury. At this point, we are not sure if it was a sea-lion or a shark. He said that the doctor who was on scene was inclined to believe it was a seal instead of a large shark. "Nevertheless, it was very frightening." The organizers will assess the situation on Monday and aim to resume competition at 1 p.m. (0100 GMT). Animal attacks at surf events are not uncommon, but they do happen. In 2015, world champion Mick Fanning famously wrestled with a shark during the final of WSL event in South Africa's Jeffreys Bay. Raglan, which hosted a world championship tour event for the first time ever, was short of its famously long left hand point break waves?for the majority of?the ten days leading up to the event. Monday's conditions were some of the best during the waiting period. Dora was ahead with a 6.33 to Ferreira's 3 pointer when their match was stopped. Morgan Cibilic, an Australian, had earlier defeated Griffin Colapinto of California with a total of '15.34' to a score 12.20. This earned him a place in the finals. Carissa Moore, Hawaii's Olympic champion and five-times world champion will face California's Sawyer Lindblad for the women's title. (Reporting and editing by Nick Mulvenney; Lincoln Feast)
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Oil and dollar decline on Middle East Peace Hopes
U.S. Stock Futures climbed on Monday, while oil and the dollar fell. The prospect of an agreement to end the Iran War boosted risk appetite. However, a lack of clarity about when the 'Strait of Hormuz' would open kept enthusiasm in check. Energy prices have soared in response to the nearly three-month war in the Middle East. Worries about inflation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which most world energy passes, has impacted global rates. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he told his representatives on Sunday not to rush any deal with Iran. His administration also played down expectations of an imminent breakthrough. Trump said just a day before that Washington and Iran had "largely" negotiated a peace agreement that would reopen this waterway that, prior to the conflict, carried about one-fifth the global oil and LNG shipments. Brent crude futures fell over 4%, to $98.83 per barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate CLc1 also dropped over 4%, to $92.03 per barrel. The euro rose 0.37% to $1.1646 while the Japanese yen climbed to 158.85 U.S. dollars in early trading, as the safe-haven dollar lost some of its recent gains. Nasdaq and S&P were both up 0.6%. Nick Twidale is the chief market analyst for ATFX Global. He expects that on Monday, investors will embrace more risk, but they won't surge higher until it has been confirmed that reopening of?the Strait?of?Hormuz. He said, "We need to reach an agreement in the next sessions because we know that there are still major sticking points." Nikkei, the Japanese stock market index, was positioned for a strong opening to Monday's trading session. Commonwealth Bank of Australia's strategists stated in a recent note that the most important issue for financial markets is when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. They asked: "Under which conditions will the?Strait reopen, and how long will it take to repair production and infrastructure in order to ramp up energy production and other goods back to pre-war level?" (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates in Singapore, Ankur Banerjee)
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Oil drops to 2-week lows as US-Iran is seen moving closer towards peace deal
Oil prices fell to a 'two-week low' on Monday, despite the fact that U.S. President Barack Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani remain at odds on key issues. These include the blockades of the Strait of Hormuz which continue to limit oil supplies from the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell $4.71 or 4.55% to $98.83 per barrel at 2234 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was $92.03 per barrel, down $4.57 or 4.73%. Both contracts reached their lowest levels since May 7 earlier in the session. On Saturday, U.S. president Donald?Trump stated that Washington and Iran had "largely" negotiated a memorandum of agreement on a deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG shipments. Trump said on Sunday that he told his representatives to not rush into any Iran deal. MST Marquee Analyst?Saul Kavonic? said: "Despite all the caveats, risks, and concerns that remain with the peace deal, and Strait of Hormuz?there is some light at?the?end of?the tunnel, which may bring some relief to oil prices in the near future." Analysts 'expect it to take months for oil flow through the strait to return back to normal, and for damaged oil-and-gas facilities to be repaired. Reporting by Florence Tan, Editing by Cynthia Osterman & Edmund Klamann
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There are 21 missing people in the Philippines after a building collapse that has left at least one person dead.
Authorities confirmed that at least one person died after a building collapsed on Sunday in the Philippines. Rescuers were searching the rubble to find 21 people listed as missing. Officials have launched an investigation into the collapse of a multi-storey structure in Angeles, north of the capital, Manila. Rescuers were seen scrambling over concrete slabs and mangled metal as they searched for survivors. The sifting was done with the help of'rescue dogs', heartbeat detection devices, and heavy equipment. RESCUE EFFORT CONTINUES The authorities confirmed that the 65-year old Malaysian had died. His body was recovered from the neighbouring hotel, which had also been damaged by the collapse. Maria Leah Sajili told a media briefing that five of the 21 people reported missing were trapped. The status of two of the five was immediately unclear. Sajili warned, however, that the operations will become more difficult after dark. Officials informed reporters that the building's planning records indicated that it was to be a "nine-storey condominium-hotel" under the permit approved, but that a swimming pool was being built on the 10th floor. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Additional reporting and Eloisa Loza; Editing and rewriting by William Mallard, Helen Popper and Christian Schmollinger)
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China reduces the death toll of Shanxi coal mining disaster to 82
Local officials announced at a press conference held late Saturday that the death toll had been revised to 82. The explosion at the Liushenyu mine in China's north province of Shanxi on Friday night killed 82 people. Initial reports from state media said that at least 90 people had been killed. Even if the number is lower, it remains China's most deadly mining accident since 2009 when a gas exploding at the Xinxing Mine, in Heilongjiang Province, killed 108. At a press conference, local officials stated that the initial death count reported by state media was incorrect. Guo Xiaofang said that the situation was chaotic after the incident, and the company had a difficult time calculating the number of employees, leading to the inaccurate initial number. At the time of explosion, there were 247 workers underground. Guo reported that two people were still missing, 128 had been injured and were hospitalised, and 35 were not hurt. Local officials stated at the press conference that Shanxi Tongzhou Coal Coking Group owns Liushenyu Mine and that all four mines of this company have been closed, and executives detained. The People's Daily, a state-run newspaper, published an editorial about the accident on its front page Sunday morning. It called for more?attention to safety?in production as well as to "completely revert the tendency to prioritize development over safety." Xinhua reported that President Xi Jinping had on Saturday called for authorities to "spare nothing" when it came to treating the injured, and executing search and rescue operations. He also ordered a probe into the incident. Officials stated at the press conference that the mine has a production capacity of 1,2 million tons of coal annually. Last year, China mined 4,83 billion tons of coal. This fuel is the foundation of its energy sector. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Luoyan Luu, Colleen Howe)
Chinese coking coal prices jump as a deadly mine accident tightens the supply outlook
Prices of Chinese coking coal soared to their highest level in almost two weeks on Monday, after a 'wave' of safety checks in coal mines in response to a fatal mine accident that occurred in a key production hub. This triggered expectations for a tightening in supply.
The gas explosion that occurred at the Liushenyu Coal Mine in the northern province of Shanxi on Friday night has claimed the lives of 82 people. This is the deadliest mining accident to have happened in the country since 2009.
Local officials announced at a Sunday news conference that the mine belongs to Shanxi Tongzhou Coal?Coking Group. All four mines of this group have been shut down and their?executives arrested.
The People's Daily, a state-run newspaper, published an editorial about the accident in its front page Sunday morning. It called for more attention to safety and "completely reversing the tendency" to prioritize development over safety.
The price of the?most traded coking coal contract at the Dalian Commodity Exchange has risen by 7.97%, to $1266.5 ($186.78 per metric tonne), its highest level since last May 12.
The DCE coke contract with the highest volume surged 7.99%, to 1,879 Yuan per ton. This is its highest level since May 6.
Mysteel, a consultancy, found that other coal mines have stopped production in Shanxi for a period of?three to five? days due to safety checks. This would result in reducing the raw supply of 'coking coal' by 288,000 tons / day.
The iron ore price also increased, with the DCE contract at 0345 GMT up 0.5% to?796.5 per tonne.
By 0335 GMT, the benchmark?June Iron Ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had risen by 0.96% to $107.2 per ton.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks gained on the higher raw materials costs.
Rebar grew 1.45%; hot-rolled coil climbed 1.39%; wire rod jumped 1.19%; and stainless steel grew 0.3%. $1 = 6.7806 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu S. Sahu; Amy Lv, Lewis Jakcson)
(source: Reuters)