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Argentina's YPF increases investment forecast to $6.2 billion by 2026
YPF, the Argentinean oil company, is planning to invest up to $6.2-billion in 2026. This is higher than its previous estimate of $5.8-billion, said CEO Horacio Martin on Tuesday during a presentation for investors. The executive said that YPF now projects EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) of $8 billion for this year. This is a significant jump from the 'previous estimate' of $6 billion. He said that the increase in EBITDA was due to a rise in oil prices. YPF is the leader in the Vaca Muerta Formation, which has the second largest unconventional shale-gas reserve and the fourth-largest shale-oil reserve. YPF reported a net 'profit' of $1.21billion in the second quarter 2026, compared to $58m a year ago. The company cited higher shale shale production, record shale processing levels, and a rise in international prices. The country depends on the formation's growth to 'boost' the country's foreign currency reserves, which are needed to'stabilize its economy, reduce inflation and pay back heavy debts to IMF.
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Markets expect key US inflation data
The price of gold edged up a little bit?on Monday after reaching a'more than two-month high earlier.?Market participants are awaiting important U.S. Inflation figures which could influence expectations about the Federal Reserve policy path. Gold spot was up 0.1% at $4,393.69 an ounce, at 09:37 am EDT (1337 GMT), having hit its highest level in June at $4,434.84. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.8% to $4453.40. The market is waiting for this week's data on inflation to confirm that the inflation rate is under control, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals. He added that a moderated annualized CPI would?continue support gold. After the weak U.S. July jobs data, which was released on Friday, led to a reduction in bets on the Fed raising rates next month and a 2.4% gain on gold each day, it is likely that Wednesday's consumer price report as well as Thursday's producer price data will influence monetary policy expectations. Grant stated that "gold is still reasonably well bid as of this point, in light of the disappointing jobs data last week which has eroded expectations regarding a rate increase in September." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders still price in a probability of 48% for a hike in September and 78% in December. Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, said that she believed the time was right for a gradual increase in rates to avoid a need for a sharper increase later. Gold that does not yield tends to be less attractive in an environment with higher interest rates. In the geopolitical arena, U.S. president Donald?Trump has responded to Tehran's demands for a peace deal by requesting that Iran pay compensation to those who have died in wars, terrorist attacks, and protests. Oil prices retreated despite signs of progress made in Oman and Iran talks?over shipping via the Strait of?Hormuz, as they were weighed against the ongoing disruption of Middle East energy supplies. Silver spot fell 1.4%, to $64.81 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.2%, to $1749.51, while palladium declined 1.3%, to $1364.75. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Sources say that Russia's Sibur Petrochemical Plant in Western Siberia was shut down after a drone attack.
Three industry sources have confirmed that the Sibur Zapsibneftekhim Petrochemical Complex in Tobolsk (in western Siberia's Tyumen region) was damaged by a drone attack on Monday. Sources said that the plant, Russia's largest liquefied gas plant, was closed indefinitely while the damage and its effects were assessed. Regional Governor Alexander 'Moor' said on Monday that an industrial site had caught fire in the Tyumen area following a drone attack, but he did not name the facility. Sibur declined to comment on an inquiry. The St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange has not offered any LPG deliveries from the Tobolsk loading station on Tuesday. In the first half of this year, 4,000 metric tonnes per day were regularly sold from Tobolsk. Zapsibneftekhim, according to industry sources, produces approximately 6 million metric tonnes of?LPG per year, which is about 40% of Russia's total LPG production. About half of the LPG produced at the site is used as feedstock in the petrochemical plant at Sibur Tobolsk.
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South Africa mine dump collapse kills 14 illegal miners, police say
Police said that at least 14 suspected illegal miners were killed and eight injured when a mine-dumping site collapsed on Monday in South Africa's North West Province. Arthur Peter Adams, the provincial police commissioner, said that search and rescue operations are underway for an unknown number of people trapped near Rustenburg. Adams stated that the collapse happened as miners were digging for platinum group metals in a 'disused dump' on a private company site. Lesotho is a country in Southern Africa. The nationality of the deceased has not yet been confirmed. South Africa has been plagued by illegal mining for many decades. It can range from small-scale thefts to operations run by organized criminal networks. Undocumented'miners' often enter abandoned commercial mines in order to extract the remaining deposits. Illegal mining costs the government and mining industries hundreds of millions?of dollars each year as a result of lost sales, taxes and royalties. (Reporting by Siyabonga Sishi. Nilutpal Timsina is reporting from Johannesburg. Alexander Winning, Mark Potter and Mark Potter (Editing)
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Ukrainian prisoners describe torture and sexual abuse they suffered while detained in Russian custody
Former Ukrainian detainees as well as Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of torturing civilian and military?detainees. They also said that they held them incommunicado, subjected them to electric shocks, and sexually abused thousands of people. Russia has rejected the allegations that were made during an informal U.N. Security Council Meeting. Its Deputy U.N. representative Maria Zabolotskaya called it "a campaign of disinformation" and claimed that Russian prisoners held in Ukraine had been subjected "to torture and degradation, and moral and physically abuse." Khuan Levya-Garsiya is still an active member in the Ukrainian military. He claims that his Russian captors tortured him for 1,183 days. "Yes ... "I was tortured," said he to reporters after the U.N. conference. "Anything that you can imagine, which is hurtful or humiliating, could be done to a male, without his consent. You can imagine anything, including verbal abuse, physical abuse and electrocution. All the things that could be done to someone in order to break them mentally. All of it was applied to me, and many of my "comrades." Garsiya told the U.N. meeting that he had been lucky to have survived, but two of his close friends died in Donetsk detention centers. He told the U.N. that prisoners were kept in "overcrowded bars without adequate conditions" where "almost everyone was ill with dysentery," and many of them were starving. He said that guards were targeting him because of his Latino surname, accusing him?of being "a mercenary, and an American spy." Leniie Umerova is a Crimean Tatar activist who was released as part of a prisoner swap in 2024. She said that she had been detained when trying to visit her seriously-ill father in Crimea. She said she was moved through "seven prisons" in a "carousel" of repression and accused Russia for torturing Ukrainians held in captivity. Oleg Gushin, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War of the Ukrainian Government, said that Ukrainian prisoners are "tortured and killed" while in custody. He claimed that Kyiv identified "more 300 places of detention in Russia and on occupied Ukrainian territory" and while "thousands", if not "thousands", Ukrainians were still in Russian captivity. Volodymyr Pavlichenko, Ukraine's Charged d'Affaires, called for increased international pressure on Russia to hold it accountable for the treatment of its prisoners. "WIDEPREAD AND SYMPATHETIC" U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Claudia Fuentes Julio stated that U.N. monitoring showed "widespread, systematic torture and ill treatment of Ukrainian prisoners-of-war and civilian detainees continues by the Russian Federation Authorities," including sexual violence. Since February 2022 the?U.N. The Office of the United Nations' High Commissioner for Human Rights documented the executions of 129 Ukrainian POWs at the start of their captivity, and the deaths in custody of 48, which resulted?from torture or denial of medical treatment, or from other inhumane detention conditions, she said. She stated that more than 95% Ukrainian prisoners of war interviewed had reported torture or mistreatment. She said that more than half of respondents also reported sexual abuse, such as "rapes, gang-rapes, beatings while nude and beatings on the genitals." She stated that the?U.N. She said the?U.N. Fuentes Julio stated that the OHCHR also documented torture and ill treatment of Russian and foreign nationals held as prisoners of war by Ukraine but on a "fundamentally different scale." She stated that about half of Russians and other third-country detainees interviewed had reported abuse in the initial stages of their captivity. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates; David Brunnstrom, Andrea Shalal)
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Stocks edge higher as oil prices rise amid US-Iran tension
On Tuesday, oil prices were?just below $90 per barrel as the United States and Iran reached an impasse in their negotiations over a peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile,?uncertainty about the global inflation outlook dampened a rise of the?stocks. U.S. President Donald Trump responded on Monday with his own conditions to Tehran's demands for a deal. He called for Iran to compensate those who died in wars and attacks, as well as protests. This could complicate efforts to reopen this crucial waterway. Brent crude futures rose 5% over the past two days and last traded at $88 per barrel. This was their highest price since July 31, and almost 25% higher than early July's four-month-low. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said that the war will be fought on attrition. "You can probably see the (oil market) sitting around the $75-$95 range while we wait to find out who blinks first." Money markets indicate that there is a 50% chance of an increase at the Federal Reserve meeting in September. Jonas Goltermann is the chief markets economist for Capital Economics. He said: "We believe that risks are skewed in favor of a hot print. This would likely drive a rebound?in rate expectations, and potentially, renewed concerns about stagflation." U.S. Treasuries stabilized. The 2-year Treasury yields fell by 1 basis point to 4.23%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yields remained essentially flat at 4.7%. Investors' risk appetite is further impacted by a new push up in 30-year bond rates towards the 19-year highs of above 5.28% that were reached in July. The latest news, which has seen yields and commodities prices move higher, has changed the mood to a more hawkish one. The STOXX 600 index in Europe pared its earlier losses and gained 0.1% for the day. MSCI's All-World Index was unchanged. Nasdaq's futures rose by 0.4% while those for the S&P500 rose by 0.2%. The benchmark indexes declined?on Sunday. Overnight, Nvidia announced that it had teamed with six major financial institutions, including BlackRock and Apollo, to create funding measures for AI infrastructure worth more than 500 billion dollars. The plan did not reveal any more details, including financial terms, commitments to invest or how $500 billion could fit in with existing funding arrangements. Sycamore said, "A small piece of me wondered if this was how it felt when the first sub-prime loans became mainstream products - the innovation which ultimately helped trigger the GFC." Another selloff of Nvidia bonds highlighted some investor concerns. The Tradegate platform last showed its 2% bond maturing in 2031 at 4.86%, an increase of 4 basis points from Monday. Intel, on the other hand, raised $20 billion via a share offering, which was the first time since 1971 that it had offered its stock. Intel shares dropped around 1% during premarket trading. The yen, among currencies, was once again in the spotlight as it fell below 159 and was well off its high of last week of 155.20. This was after several suspected rounds of interventions, including one by Japan and the United States. The holiday in Japan led to a thinner trading volume than usual. This is often viewed as a catalyst for possible intervention as small trades have a greater impact on prices than normal. Gold, which is up 8% this month so far, was also 0.1% higher than the previous day, at $4,394 per ounce. (Rae Wee contributed additional reporting from Singapore; Clarence Fernandez edited the story with Kate Mayberry, Toby Chopra and Toby Chopra.)
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Austrians rush to slaughterhouse as hot weather in Europe stunts Austrian crops
Farmers say that the scorching European summer of this year is affecting agriculture, even in Austria. The heat has'stunted' crop growth, and cows have been dragged from parched Alpine pastures to be slaughtered early. Johann Fessl is a dairy farmer from northern Austria who raises his cattle on Alpine pastures at 1,300 meters (4,300 feet). Heat and lack of rainfall have caused a shortage of grass and water for cattle. This will force farmers to move cows to barns earlier to eat hay that was intended for winter last year. Some farmers send their cattle to slaughter earlier to reduce costs. Fessl is the head of an association of pasture-based cattle producers in Upper Austria. He explained that the situation differs on every hill and mountain. He said that some farmers are discussing emergency slaughters this year. "The list of people waiting to be slaughtered is long." GRAIN HARVEST IS EXPECTED BY 19% TO SHRINK THIS YEAR. Crops are also affected. AgrarMarkt Austria - a national organization that oversees food production - said in a statement this month that it expects grain harvest to be 19% smaller. Corn, which needs even more water, also suffers. Roland Radner, a farmer in Germany, cut down his corn very early because the yield was so poor. The remaining stems are yellowed and not the usual green. The heat has halted the development of many of Barbara Stemberger's 30 varieties of tomatoes in the greenhouses near Linz. Due to the extreme heat in the last few weeks, many tomatoes have blossom-end rot. The tomatoes can still be eaten if the rotten bits are removed, but they cannot be sold as-is. There is at least a silver lining for them. Stemberger stated that "the carrots are flourishing exceptionally this year due to the heat." (Writing and editing by Francois Murphy)
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Russell: The surge in China's imports of coal may be starting to slow down.
China's coal exports increased to the highest level this year in July, but that strength is based on short-term factors and unlikely to last. According to data released by the government last week, total coal imports in July were up 23% from last year's same month to 43.73 millions metric tons. It was up from 42.78 millions tons in June, and nearly a third higher than the low of 33.1million tons for April this year. After 82 miners were killed in an accident at a mine located in Shanxi Province on May 22, China began imposing safety inspections in mines. China's largest coal producer has historically seen its output fall due to safety inspections. To make up any shortfall, China imports coal to cover the shortage. In June, domestic coal production dropped 9.7% from the same period a year ago to 380.88 millions tons. According to official data, the average daily output was 12.7 million tonnes, the lowest level since July 2025. Official data on production will be released next week. However, reports from analysts in China suggest that output in August should be at the same level it was in 2025. It is possible that China will start to import less coal from August. Consider that China imports mainly from its neighbours. This includes Mongolia, but also Russia. About 75% of all coal imported is seaborne, but that share has decreased in recent years, as more coal, primarily metallurgical coal, used to manufacture steel, comes from Mongolia. Analysts DBX Commodities estimate that China's seaborne coal imports in August were?31.23 millions tons, down from a previous estimate of?33.91 in July. This is the first decrease in four years. As more cargoes arrive for assessment, the August figures may be revised. However, it is expected that they will fall below July's total, which indicates that China is less in need of imports as safety inspections decrease. Price Reductions After a rise in prices, seaborne coal has started to level off after China increased its imports during June and July. Argus, a commodity reporting agency, assessed the price of 4,200 kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg), a popular grade with Chinese buyers, at $62.51 a tonne in the week ending August 7. It was a slight drop from the monthly assessment, which had been $61.77 per ton in July. However, it was 5.1% lower than the $65.89 of June. China's coal prices and imports are also influenced by the electricity demand. According to official data, China's thermal?production increased 2.9% from a year ago in the first half of 2026. Thermal power is almost exclusively coal-based, with a little natural gas. While it is increasing, the share of its total generation has declined as China continues to add solar and wind power. China produced less than half of its electricity in the first six months of this year from fossil fuels, a first. Government data shows that thermal power made up 49.7%. The reduction of solar incentives has slowed the pace of solar installations. However, wind power will likely ensure that China's share of electricity generated from renewable sources continues to grow. This should lead to a reduction in coal imports over time, particularly if China keeps its domestic coal production levels at the current?levels. It is more likely that months such as June and July when coal imports exceeded?40 millions tons will become the exceptions, rather than the rule. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by SonaliPaul)
Andy Home: Copper's Congo-panic says more about copper and Congo than ROI-Copper
Doctor Copper had a panic episode last week when the Democratic Republic of Congo banned exports of cobalt and copper concentrates.
On the news, London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month copper jumped to a six-month high at $14,369.50 a metric ton. Cash price reached a record high of $14.453.60 per metric ton as spreads tightened simultaneously.
Despite Congo being the largest supplier of battery metal in the world, there was no reaction from?the CME cobalt prices. Cash cobalt ended Friday at $25.99 a lb, a 0.9% drop on the previous week.
It is easy to understand the cobalt market indifference. Congo does not export cobalt concentrates but rather cobalt hydrxide, a product intermediate that is already subjected to export quotas.
Congo exports very little copper concentrate and focuses instead on refined metal. Kinshasa banned the export of copper concentrate on three occasions in the past, but granted repeated exemptions to miners.
Copper's acute sensitivity at any sign of disruption in supply is the real story here, not Congo's ambition to move further down the value-chain.
Tightening the screws
The copper deposits in Congo are ideally suited to electrowinning. This means that most operators can convert the metal they mine directly into metal. According to StoneX analysts, 82% of Congo's total production last year was produced on-site as refined copper.
Kinshasa, however, has not hidden its intention to process the remaining concentrates itself.
The two first export bans, in 2013 and 2019, failed because the Congo lacked a large-scale smelting capability. Rolling waivers enabled concentrate exports to continue.
The investment from China's state owned mining company CNMC, and Yunnan Copper, enabled the country to get its first modern smelter by 2020. Lualaba's smelter is capable of processing?400,000 tons per year but that amount does not cover Congo's production.
The 2023 ban on exports also included waivers. This was especially true for the "giant Kamoa Kakula mine complex", a joint venture of Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining Group, which began producing in 2021.
Ivanhoe agreed to build a new steel smelter in exchange for the money. This it did. The company reported that the massive plant, which can produce 500,000 tons per year, was put online in January last year. It has been operating at 60% capacity since February.
In the first half 2026, China's copper concentrate imports from Congo dropped by 31% on an annual basis.
Congo's processing deficit should be reduced as the smelter increases. In case this doesn't happen, the new ban allows for "strategic waivers".
SUPPLY SENSITIVITY
Goldman Sachs says that the latest export ban won't have a "material impact" on global copper markets.
It will however tighten a raw materials market that is already under pressure. Smelter processing charges have fallen due to fierce competition in the copper concentrate market.
Copper bulls are accustomed to the smelter pressure, which is why they reacted so strongly to last week's announcement.
London's market is the most sensitive to supply-side disruptions, as it is caught in the middle of China's gravitational pull and the United States, with its even greater force, due to the threat of import tariffs.
LME copper stock has fallen from 401,000 tonnes in early May to just 214,550, with 58% of the total held as cancelled warrants, awaiting actual load-outs from exchange warehouses.
Another 138.408 tons of Copper are in LME off warrant storage. 79% of the shadow stock is at U.S. Ports, ready to be cleared through customs, if the CME Delivery Premium over the?LME increases.
Time-spreads are tightening as a result of the tension in London.
The benchmark cash-to-3-month spread has fallen from its highs of last week, but the outright price of copper is still up.
Doctor Copper's panic is unlikely to be the only one if LME stocks continue to?drain away eastwards and westernwards.
Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)