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Health Rounds - According to a study, wildfires are the main source of air pollution in U.S. pregnancy.
We also share a report by cardiologists suggesting that you may (or may not) want check your waist and hip measurement, as well as a lab?study that has some encouraging news regarding brain tumor treatments. WILDFIRES ARE THE MAIN CAUSE OF US AIR POLUTION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY Researchers?say that wildfires are the main source of air pollution harmful to pregnant women in the United States. The study examined 64.5 million pregnancies between 2003 and 2019 in 48 states, analyzing the "neighborhood" exposure to tiny airborne particles of 2.5 micrometers in diameter or less that penetrate deep into the lungs. Vehicle exhaust, industrial emissions and wildfires are the main sources of PM2.5 pollution. The amount of smoke from wildfires has more than doubled since 2003, and the exposure to PM2.5 during pregnancy has decreased significantly. Researchers reported in Frontiers in Environmental Health that by 2019, wildfire smoke would be the leading contributor to high pollution days during pregnancy in the United States. In 2019, wildfire air pollution was responsible for approximately 65% "exceedance" days -- when PM2.5 levels exceeded 35 micrograms per cubic meter. Researchers have noted that wildfire smoke can cause adverse outcomes for babies. Researchers cannot speak directly to what is happening in Europe where record heatwaves are contributing to some the worst wildfires on the continent in history. According to Michel Boudreaux, senior author of the study from the University of Maryland, wildfire smoke, and other air pollutants, are responsible for adverse birth outcomes in the U.S. as well as Europe. While individuals can take steps to reduce their exposure to toxins (air filtering, masking), communities and governments need to play a more active role. They should ensure that the public has access to air-purifying shelters and that schools, homes and workplaces have adequate air filters. ABDOMINAL FIBRO PREDICTS HEART DISEASE RISK EVEN BETTER THAN BMI Researchers say that the size of someone's midsection can be a better indicator of risk for heart disease than their body mass index. BMI is a weight-to-height ratio that has been used to diagnose obesity and overweight, which are risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Studies have shown, however, that visceral fat around abdominal organs is associated with chronic diseases such as heart disease and diabetes more than subcutaneous fat directly beneath the skin. Researchers reported in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology that BMI doesn't account for the distribution of body fat, and that not accounting for waist circumference (or waist-to hip ratio) can lead to a misclassification of cardiovascular risk. In a press release, Dr. Michael Blaha from Johns Hopkins University stated that individuals with normal weight but elevated central adiposity or a high waist-to hip ratio -- which means their waist was larger than their hips -- were at higher risk for most outcomes. The team analyzed data from over 260,000 people collected in the last 20 years. Individuals with normal or overweight weight who have a high waist circumference, and a high waist-to hip ratio are at heightened risk of fatal and non-fatal strokes and heart disease. Obesity and low waist circumference were associated with similar outcomes as those with normal weight and low circumference. The study was not conducted by Dr. Harlan Krumholz. He is the editor-in chief of the journal. Krumholz stated in a press release that "this enormously important study based on data collected from hundreds of thousands of participants participating in large-scale cohorts" shows conclusively that waist circumference, and the waist-to hip ratio, provide crucial information about cardiovascular risks. These simple measures are part of a routine cardiovascular risk assessment. Researchers find brain-tumor vulnerability Studies in mice indicate that after surgery for incurable brain tumors, drugs are able to cross the protective barrier of the brain and reach cancer cells likely to cause recurrence. The surgery to remove a Glioblastoma is usually performed within days of the diagnosis. Chemotherapy and radiation are then administered four to six week later. The delay allows some cancer cells to continue growing. The residual cancer cells are only marginally eliminated by chemotherapy, and the tumors return. Researchers found that the blood-brain barriers were disrupted in the immediate hours following surgery and then again 48 to 72 hours later. According to a report in Science Translational Medicine, during these periods, nanoparticles containing drugs may accumulate at the resection margin. This is where tumors most often recur. The delivery of nanoparticles with the chemotherapy agent, doxorubicin, was increased during peak periods of blood-brain barriers disruption postoperatively. This inhibited tumor recurrence. In a press release, Dr. Thomas Kisby of University of Manchester (UK) said that the glioblastoma surgical procedure exposes a short-term vulnerability which we can exploit. If treatment is given during the specific window we identified, this can stop the disease before it grows back.
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India's Grasim Industries has a strong first-quarter performance as its core business improves
Grasim Industries, a company based in India, reported a'standalone profit' in the first three months of this year. This was due to a'strong performance in its fibre business which provides materials for textiles and apparel, as well as fewer losses in newer ventures. Aditya Birla Group's flagship company reported a standalone net profit of 632.2 million rupees (about $6.33 million) in the quarter ended June 30. This compares to a loss?of 1.18 million rupees one year ago. Grasim’s fibre business reported a 12% % increase in revenue year-on-year. Analysts expected a'sharp improvement' in Grasim’s quarterly earnings as higher prices boosted its fibre business, while losses at its paints business and business-to business e-commerce ventures narrowed. ICICI Securities forecast Grasim’s operating?profit to roughly double from a previous year, while Antique Stock Broking predicted a 77% increase. Grasim’s Birla Opus Paints?business grew revenue by 64% to 16.61 billion rupees as the company expanded in a'market that was previously dominated by Asian Paints and Berger Paints. Grasim’s standalone?revenues from operations increased?27.8% in the third quarter to 117.95?rupees.
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CEE ECONOMY - Romanian inflation is less than expected but politics and drought clouds outlook
The annual inflation rate in Romania slowed down sharply, but not as much as analysts had expected. Data from the National Statistics Board on Wednesday showed that consumer price inflation dropped to 8.16% in July from 10.42% in june. Analysts expected that the annual rate would slow down to 7.9%. Prices increased by 0.58% compared to the previous month. Romanian electricity prices rose?as recently as July of last year, after the government's price-capping program expired. The drop on Wednesday reflects a fading?of the base effect. The impact of the increase in value-added tax is also expected to fade next month. Energy prices rose 'this year, after the beginning of the Iran War. This had a major impact on inflation. The drought-affected Danube River reached record-low levels, resulting in a sharp drop in power production and the need to import expensive goods to cover the deficit. The bank said that inflation will fall within the 1.5%-3.5% range at the end next year. This is a quarter earlier than originally anticipated. Thursday, the bank will release its new forecasts for this and next year. The outlook for the country's economic and inflationary prospects was clouded in May by the collapse, and subsequent failure, of a broad, pro-European government. The central bank is not expected to reduce interest rates until the first quarter of the next year, according to the analysts polled. In a research report, Erste Bank stated that the'main risks to our projection are derived from electricity prices, spillovers effects of severe droughts and volatile fuel prices globally. "We expect key rate flat at 6.50% until May 2027." (Reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens; Luiza Ilie)
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Oil prices rise before CPI, but European stocks remain stable
Oil prices rose after new attacks on Middle East shipping dimmed hopes for an end to the Iran War. Later in the day, markets focused their attention on U.S. inflation figures. Both the U.S., and Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis, reported separate attacks against shipping. Meanwhile, both Iran and U.S. increased their rhetoric over recent days. Mohsenrezaei said that Iran's top official in security, Mohsen Rezaei stated on Tuesday, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the U.S. agrees to Iran's terms for ending the war. Energy prices are still high and the war is not ending, despite claims by U.S. president Donald Trump that a deal was imminent. This threatens global growth and inflation. U.S. crude climbed 0.8% to $83.89 per barrel while Brent climbed 0.7% to $99.49, putting them on track for their sixth consecutive daily gain. Both benchmarks closed more than $1 higher Tuesday, their highest close since July 31, and continuing gains after a 5% jump on Monday. Dorian Carrell is the head of Schroders' multi-asset income. We don't think the Strait of Hormuz will be at full capacity. This puts a floor under the oil price, and keeps energy-driven inflation on the market in near-to-medium-term. Early European trade saw little change in the STOXX 600 pan-region index. The major stock indexes of Frankfurt, Paris, and London were all close to being unchanged. Stocks in Asia rose by 0.7%. The gains were led by the 3.7% rise in South Korea's Kospi, and an almost 1% increase in Japan and Taiwan, as chipmakers surged. U.S. futures for the S&P500 e-minis were up by 0.1% while Nasdaq's futures rose by 0.4% as CoreWeave, a cloud AI company, announced positive results after the market. CPI: Keep Your Eyes on It The markets remained focused later in the session on U.S. Consumer Prices data for any signals about a possible Federal Reserve rate increase. Money markets are showing a 50/50 chance that the Fed will raise interest rates at its meeting next month. According to a survey, consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.1% in July following a 0.4% drop in June. A poll predicts that the annual CPI inflation will slow from 3.5% to 3.4%, down from 3.5% one month ago. Carrell, Schroders' Carrell, said that the?CPI is expected to be?relatively soft today. This would set up a hold until midterms if all other things are equal. Financial Times reported that Fed Bank of Boston president Susan Collins would support a September rate increase if inflation remained high. The markets are pricing in a rate increase in Japan sooner than expected, which puts pressure on the country's short-dated bonds. The yield of the 5-year Japanese Government Bond rose to a record-high 2.12%. Meanwhile, the yield for the 2-year Japanese Government Bond reached a high of 1.645%, which is a new 31-year high. Investors are now pricing in a?chance? of almost 60% of a quarter point hike at Bank of Japan's meeting of September. The yen fell to 159.35 dollars, a slight decline from the high of last week of 155.20. This is after several suspected rounds or intervention. The dollar index (which measures a currency's value against a basket) rose by less than 0.1%, to 99.86. The euro and sterling remained relatively unchanged. Spot gold increased 1%, to $4,409 per ounce. Spot silver rose 2%, to $66.04 per ounce. (Reporting from Samuel Indyk and Rocky Swift, both in London; editing by Edwina and Stephen Coates).
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Nigeria looks at crude supply reforms for Dangote and other refiners
The local oil refiners association reported that Nigeria was considering changes to its crude allocation rules and pricing to increase 'feedstock' access for its refiners. This includes Dangote Refinery. Dangote said previously that Nigeria's pricing structure added $3 to $4 per bar to feedstock costs because purchases were routed through trading arms of producers. Analysts claim that the pricing of domestic crude oil is more important than availability. This move could boost operations at Africa's largest?refinery of 650,000 barrels per day, Dangote, whose production has been at times constrained by the difficulty in securing enough crude supplies domestically. CORAN, the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, said that these proposed changes will be discussed during this week's?regulator led review of Nigeria’s domestic crude supply obligations. This requires producers to?supply local refining facilities before exporting. CORAN spokesperson Eche Idoko said that under a 'proposal, a producer connected to an IOC network could deliver crude to a nearby refining facility, with the volumes being reconciled at the terminal. Second, refiners who lift crude directly from production sites would receive a discount that reflects the freight and handling cost embedded in Brent-linked prices but not actually incurred by them. Idoko said, "This could be win-win situation for both producers and refiners." The Nigerian 'Upstream Regulatory Commission' (NUPRC), released data on Monday that showed producer compliance with the domestic crude oil supply framework increased to more than 90% from less than 40% in the previous quarter. The metric is used to compare actual deliveries with the volumes allotted by regulators, and not refinery demands met. Producers must provide?allocated quantities to local refineries and agree on sales based on a "willing buyer, willing seller" basis. An official at the NUPRC said that the ideas were "on the table", largely due to the requests of refiners in the inland. However, he added that the implementation would require adjustments for crude quality and pricing. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Isaac Anyaogu)
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Gold returns to 10-week highs as markets prepare for US CPI data
Investors were awaiting key U.S. data on inflation that could change policy expectations. This led to a rise in gold prices?on Wednesday. By 0713 GMT, spot gold had gained 0.9%. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.5% to $4464.80. Bullion reached a 10-week-high on Tuesday, before hitting technical resistance around the 100-day moving?average of $4,387. It then closed lower for the second time this month. The primary driver of gold prices is the Fed's reduction in rate hikes, according to Kelvin Wong. He is a senior analyst at OANDA. "In terms of the technical position, we began to?see an upward break last week, above that $4200 level. This?also created positive feedback loops." Bullion's weekly gain was the largest since January after traders reduced their bets about U.S. interest rate hikes due to weaker than expected jobs data. According to CME FedWatch?Tool, traders now price in a 50% probability of a September hike, down from 60% prior to the jobs report. Gold tends to be supported by lower interest rates as it pays no interest. The U.S. Consumer Price Index, due later that day, could reshape interest rate expectations. Fed Bank of Chicago president?Austan G.oolsbee stated that he was more concerned with too high inflation than any weakness in the labour market. Oil prices rose as U.S. and Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis both reported separate attacks against shipping on Tuesday. Meanwhile, prospects for an end to the Iran War appeared dim. Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington accepted?its terms. Spot silver rose 2.1% to $66.04 an ounce. This is below the highest price since Tuesday, June 22, when it was at $66.04. Palladium rose 0.7%, to $1370.52, and platinum gained 0.6%, to $1755.50.
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Heatwaves and drought to be discussed by UK PM at emergency meeting
The British Prime Minister Andy Burnham will chair a meeting on Wednesday of the government’s 'emergency response' committee to discuss measures to combat extreme heat, wildfires, and draught, according his office. Britain is currently experiencing its fifth heatwave in a row. The Met Office in England warned that temperatures will likely reach around 37 degrees Celsius on Thursday, especially in southern and eastern England as well as parts of the Midlands. Fire chiefs have responded to 966 fires in England and Wales, including 185 within the first 10 days alone of August. The farming industry has also warned that production will be affected. A spokesperson for Downing Street said: "We will continue to take the action necessary to keep communities safe and secure, protect water sources, support farming communities, and safeguard the environment." A combination of low rainfall and high temperatures has caused a flash-drought in most of Britain. The Met Office reported that England and Wales had their driest month in 190-years. According to government statistics, around 45 million people live in an area that is 'drought-affected' and 27 millions are restricted in their use of water. Last month, UK health authorities reported that a total of?2,877 deaths in Britain this year were due to heat-related causes. Scientists say that climate change is a major factor in the prolonged dry weather. This has affected agriculture, water supplies for public use and wildlife. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Andrew Heavens, and Akanksha Khaushi in Bengaluru)
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Oil prices rise as supply concerns over the US-Iran agreement increase
Prices of oil rose on Wednesday, as concerns over a Middle East supply disruption were fueled by doubts regarding a U.S. Iran peace deal. Industry data also showed that U.S. crude inventories had risen. Brent futures rose 75 cents or 0.84% to $89.66 per barrel at 0553 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), climbed 72 cents or 0.87% to $83.92. Both contracts rose more than $1 in the previous session. The highest closing prices of both contracts were recorded on Tuesday, with an increase of over $1. Prices rose by 5% Monday, as hope for a peace deal between the United States, and Iran began to fade. This was after President Trump demanded that Iran pay compensation for those who died in wars, terrorist attacks, or protests. "The Middle East has become a seesaw, alternating between a 'deal' or a 'war,' keeping oil prices fluctuating between $70 to $90 a barrel," said Priyanka Sachdeva in Singapore, who is the head of Phillip Nova's market insights. Separate attacks by the United States and Yemeni Houthis, who are Iran-aligned, were reported on Tuesday on the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as well as the Bab el Mandeb?Strait. Mohsenrezaei said that the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital to Iran, would remain closed until the United States reopened it. Accepted Iran's terms to end the war, including releasing its frozen assets and ending other regional conflicts. Trump told a reporter on Tuesday that the United States could "let Iran boop along" or hit them "really, really hard". He has alternated throughout the conflict between threats of an escalation, and claims that peace is imminent. Sachdeva said that some people could benefit from the uncertainty. She said that markets may simply adapt to the weekly narrative change. This creates an environment that is highly volatile but also rich in opportunities for intraday traders and short-term investors. The number of vessels that transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday fell to an all-time low of 8. Before the war, between 125 and 140 vessels passed through this vital waterway every day. A poll on Tuesday showed that U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories were expected to be down last week. According to market sources, American Petroleum Institute data showed that U.S. crude stocks rose dramatically in the week ending August 7, while gasoline inventories and distillate stocks declined. Sources said that crude stocks increased by 9.1 million barrels while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell by 1.5 million barrels each and respectively 596,000 barrels from the previous weeks. In a note, Haitong Futures stated that the crude build exceeded expectations. If confirmed in the EIA report on Wednesday, it could ease concerns about tight supply. The official numbers of the U.S. Department of Energy's statistical arm, the?EIA are expected at 10:30 am ET. ET (1430 GMT). The EIA predicted that Middle East crude oil supply disruptions would continue through 2027. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Fernandez and Clarence Fernandez; Colleen Waye and Sam Li)
Aluminium's rally of seven sessions ends as EGA confirms timeline for smelter recovery
Aluminium prices ended a seven session rally on Wednesday, after Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), a major producer of the metal, reaffirmed that it will resume full-scale production in its war-damaged plant?in 2027's first quarter. Benchmark three-month aluminum on the?London Metal Exchange fell 0.65% to $3,342 per metric ton at 0700 GMT. The rally began on August 3 and has since risen 4.7%.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract was 0.43% more expensive at 24,285 Yuan ($3,600.18). It reached 24,470 yuan per ton earlier in the session, its highest level in nearly 10 weeks. EGA's Al Taweelah Smelter in Abu Dhabi suffered damage after?strikes by Iran in March. This forced an emergency shut down. In its earnings report for the first six months of the year, EGA said that the facility will reach its pre-incident production levels?in the first three quarters of 2027. This is in line with the announcement made by the company in July. The Middle East's disruption of aluminium production, which represents 9% of global smelting capacities, is expected to lead to a supply deficit in 2018.
Stocks of light metals in LME registered warehouses
The red metal rose 0.26% over the LME, and 0.4% over the SHFE.
Copper prices have been supported by falling inventories and supply concerns. Stocks in LME have been boosted by outflows to the U.S., ahead of potential tariffs on imports.
Nickel ticked up?0.09% and tin?0.64%.
The SHFE showed that zinc rose by 0.86%; lead gained 0.28%; nickel fell 0.23%; and tin increased 1.4%.
(source: Reuters)