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Gold gains for the second consecutive session but set for a monthly fall
Gold prices rose for the second consecutive session on Monday, as demand for safe-haven assets increased. However, they were still headed towards a monthly drop as inflation fears and expectations of rising global interest rates were sparked by the Middle East conflict. Gold spot rose 1.6%, to $4,564.00 per ounce at 8:51 am. ET (1251 GMT), after reaching its lowest level since early November. U.S. Gold Futures for April Delivery gained 1.5% to $4,594.00. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst at Kitco Metals. He said that the focus of the market in the near term will be the war, crude-oil prices, bond yields and the U.S. Dollar index. Iran launched a barrage of missiles towards Israel and vowed to punish the aggressor as Israeli forces pounded Tehran. Oil prices also rose when Yemen's Houthis joined the conflict. As energy prices continue to rise, markets are reassessing their expectations for interest rates. Gold is used to hedge against inflation, geopolitical unrest and other risks. However, it does not pay interest. This makes it less appealing when interest rates are high. Investors will be looking for additional policy signals in the remarks of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman?Jerome Powell, and?New York Fed president John Williams on Monday. "I believe Powell will try to walk a thin line and be neutral. If his comments are hawkish then gold prices could be under pressure. But if they're dovish the price will rise," said Wyckoff. This week, there are a number of economic reports due, including U.S. jobs openings, retail sales, ADP's employment report, and nonfarm payrolls. Silver spot rose by 2.5%, to $71.36 an ounce. Spot palladium rose 4.3%, to $1436.56, while spot platinum gained 3.0% to $1919.23. Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru (reporting); Alexander Smith, editing)
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McGeever: ROI-Bond Blues hits Big Tech at worst possible time
The Middle East conflict and the resulting shock to energy supplies will cause a surge in market interest rates. The spike in borrowing costs couldn't have been worse for U.S. technology firms that plan to spend over $600 billion on artificial intelligence this year. The AI capex surge is unprecedented. Big Tech's expected $630 billion capital?expenditure this year is more than 2% GDP. This includes AI data centers, chips, and cloud computing. More than $800 billion is projected to be spent next year, which is close to 3% GDP. Big Tech has historically used cash to finance expansion. They still have plenty of cash: according to some estimates, the combined cash and equivalents held by the five biggest hyperscalers is over $350 billion. Apple and Microsoft's credit ratings are higher than the U.S. Government. They're burning it through. According to?Apollo Global Management, at the end of the last year, approximately 60% of hyperscalers operating cash flow was used for capex. This is now close to 70%. If this trend continues, it's possible that soon almost every dollar earned will be allocated to capex. Morgan Stanley analysts say that Big Tech's capex for this year and the next will be $1.4 trillion. This is nearly 90% of the expected $1.6 trillion in operating cash flow. The credit markets are becoming increasingly important to tech giants. Bank of America analysts predict that hyperscalers will issue debt this year in excess of $175 billion. This is up from $121 billion the previous year, and six times more than the average annual debt of $28 billion over the five preceding years. The scale of borrowing is greater when you look at the entire sector. Analysts at MUFG estimate that investment-grade issuance from tech and AI firms last year totaled more than $245 billion. This is not far from the $298 billion accumulated over the past decade. The BEAR Case Last week, I outlined the bullish U.S. Tech narrative. This is based on the idea that hyperscalers will be able to weather the exogenous shock. Capital Economics reports that since the Iran War broke out, four weeks ago tech earnings have grown faster than any other industry, including energy. Investors are sceptical that AI investments and borrowing will produce adequate returns. Roundhill's "Magnificent 7" exchange-traded funds fell 5% in the last week. This puts its monthly loss at around 10%, and its drop from October highs near 20%. It is a cause for concern. Leverage used to finance AI will increase pressure on the balance sheets of hyperscalers, while at the same time every dollar of incremental profit will be harder to achieve. This pessimism is only going to grow if interest rates on the market continue to rise. This is the biggest monthly increase since October 2024. If it increases by a few more basis points before March 31, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will be at its highest since October 2024. The spread widening in the corporate bond market has been a relatively tame fifteen basis points over the same time period. This could change. Big Tech could be hit by a double whammy: higher interest rates and increasing debt obligations, on one hand, and the prospect of squeezed profit margins and falling share prices on another. The impact on the broader market and economy could be significant, considering how important these companies are for overall U.S. earnings. It's hard to imagine how the economy can go into recession if the capex binge, one of the biggest collective investments in a single industry ever made, comes to fruition. If rising yields or falling share prices derail these plans, a perfect storm could occur with increased inflation, higher borrowing costs and a weakening hiring market. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Rebellions, a South Korean AI chip startup, raises $400 Million in its latest funding round
Rebellions, a South Korean artificial-intelligence chip startup, announced on 'Monday that it raised $400 million during its latest funding round. This valued the company at approximately $2.34 billion as it accelerates expansion into the U.S. The round is led by Mirae Asset Financial Group, and the Korea National Growth Fund. It follows the $250 million Series C raised in September 2025, and brings the total capital raised for the company to $850 millions, Rebellions stated in a press release. After raising $650'million in the last six months, which is more than 75% its?total?funding to date, Rebellions announced that it was entering a?new phase?of?growth, focused on expansion in the U.S. and scaling up production of the Rebel100 platform. It also said that they were preparing for a future IPO. The 2020-founded company designs neural 'processing units' (NPUs), which are used for AI inference. The company said that the demand for AI infrastructure is increasing rapidly among cloud providers, telecoms operators, and government-backed projects, especially in the U.S. In the latest round of investment, the Korea National Growth Fund (K-Nvidia) made a direct investment of 250 billion won ($165.45 millions), the first time the government has invested directly under the "K-Nvidia initiative". The K-Nvidia project, led jointly by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIC), aims to develop a global chip company amid the?intensifying competitiveness in the sector. This is dominated by U.S. companies such as Nvidia. The funding round demonstrates a growing interest from investors in companies that are developing AI alternatives to dominant chipmakers. This is due to the global demand for cost-efficient AI systems. Investors in Rebellions include Aramco Wa'ed Ventures and KT. Also included are Samsung, SK Hynix, SK Telecom, SK Hynix, SK Hynix, SK Hynix, SK Hynix, SK Hynix, SK Hynux, SK Telecom, SK Hynix, SK Hynix, SK Hynix, SK Hynix. It has its headquarters in South Korea, but operates in the United States. Mirae Asset also invests in SpaceX.
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A missile hits a fuel tanker in Israel's Oil Refineries
Israel's Fire and Rescue Service reported on Monday that a fuel tanker and an industrial building at Israel's Oil Refineries, located in Haifa, were hit by debris from a missile intercepted. The missile's origin was not immediately known. It could have been fired by Iran or Hezbollah militants in Lebanon who are backed by Iran. The fire service reported that a direct strike was made on an gasoline storage tank in the factory grounds. This caused thick smoke to be seen from the roofs of nearby buildings. The incident is now 'fully contained. "There are no fatalities, hazardous materials risk, or dangers to the public," Eitan Rifa, a commander of fire, said. Israel's Energy Minister Eli Cohen stated that there was no damage done to the production facilities, and fuel supply would not be affected. An Iranian missile strike that occurred on March 20, near the main base of?Israel's Navy, also known as Bazan and Oil Refineries in Israel, caused some damage. In a previous conflict in June last year, Iran attacked Bazan's refinery and severely damaged a power plant that produced steam and electricity.
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Official: India is looking for alternative sources of fertilizer to increase its stock, says official
A senior government official from the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers said that India has adequate fertilizer stocks and is relying on 'alternative sources' to increase supplies for summer-sown crop plantings. Aparna Sharma, an additional secretary at the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, said that the Gulf region was responsible for 20%-30% of India's imports of urea, as well as 30% of Diammonium Phosphate before the Iran War. She said that India will need to purchase 39 million metric tonnes of fertiliser for the summer crop planting season. Current stocks are 18 million tons, compared to 14.7 millions tons last year. Sharma stated that "Further proactive measures have been taken to diversify our sources of sourcing outside the Gulf countries such as Russia, Morocco Australia, Indonesia Malaysia Jordan, Canada, Algeria Egypt and Togo, among others." In order to reduce their dependency on Middle East imports, Indian companies have signed several long-term agreements. These include 2.8 millions ton of Russian supplies for Cape of Good Hope. A government statement said that India had also launched a global tender in mid-February for the import of 1.3 millions ton of Urea. In April, India's six-month-long summer-sown harvest season begins. "April and May is a lean time and India uses these two months to?build stocks," Sharma said. She said that India's monthly urea output is 1.8 million tons, compared to the 2.4 million tons it produces on average, as some plants have just restarted after annual maintenance. Sharma said that India, which relies heavily on Middle East for a large portion of its liquefied gas imports - a vital feedstock for fertilisers - has been affected by the 'higher global prices for the crop nutrients and freight rates. The federal government continues to offer urea at reduced prices despite rising global prices. Reporting by Nidhi Sharma and Saurabh Varma, writing by Shilpa jamkhandikar. Editing by YPrajesh and Tomaszjanowski.
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In Pakistan, heavy rains and floods have killed 45 people.
Authorities said that heavy rains in Afghanistan and Pakistan caused severe flooding and collapsed buildings, killing 45 people and injuring 74. Kabul warned of the continued dangers from bad weather. The National Disaster Management Authority said that the majority of deaths were reported in the war-torn provinces of Afghanistan, such as Parwan, Maidan Wardak and Daykundi, where torrential rainfall caused flash floods and landslides. This led to the destruction or total destruction 130 homes. It said that conditions remained "unstable", with the risk of more rain and flooding continuing in certain areas. "In total 1,140?families were affected," NDMA stated in a press release. The disaster management authority of the?Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in Pakistan, which shares a border with Afghanistan?, said that heavy rains caused walls and roofs to collapse on houses, killing at least 17 people. This included 14 children. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan are listed by the United Nations as countries that are most vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather. Last year, a fierce monsoon caused havoc in Pakistan. It killed almost 1,000 people, destroyed crops, livestock, and homes. In a report published in November, the United Nations Development Programme said that earthquakes, flooding, and droughts had destroyed 8,000 homes across?Afghanistan by 2025, straining public services to "their limits". Since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, international aid has been cut. The country is struggling to cope. Reporting by Sayed Hassib in Kabul; Additional reporting by Saud Mesud in Dera Ismail Khan; Writing by Sakshi Daal. Editing by Kate Mayberry & Keith Weir
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As investors purchase the dip, gold prices rise. However, fading bets on rate cuts cap the upside.
On Monday, gold rose?more than 1% as bargain hunters shopped. However, it was on track for its?largest month decline in almost two decades. Rising oil prices due the escalating Middle East war all but eliminated U.S. rate cut bets this year. Gold spot rose by 1.1% at $4,541.76 an ounce, as of 1122 GMT. It had gained more than 1% earlier. U.S. Gold Futures for April Delivery gained 1.1%, reaching $4,572.20. Ricardo Evangelista, an analyst at ActivTrades, said that after prices reached multi-month lows 'last week, traders saw the opportunity to buy the drop, driving the gains seen in precious metal today and on Friday. Last Monday, spot gold dropped to $4,097.99 an ounce, its lowest level since November 24, 2025. The metal is on course to have its largest monthly drop since October 2008. It has dropped more than 14% this'month. Brent oil prices continued to rise on Monday. They are on track for a monthly record after the Yemeni Houthis attacked Israel at the weekend. This has widened the conflict. Evangelista said that traders expect oil prices to stay high for a long time, which will likely fuel inflation and force central banks into adopting restrictive measures. This could mean keeping rates at current levels or even causing a further increase. Gold's appeal is boosted by inflation, but high interest rates reduce its demand. The traders have almost priced out the possibility of a U.S. rate cut this year. Bullion, which reached a record-high on January 29, still looks set to gain more than 5% this quarter. Investors are awaiting?Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell?s remarks?at an event at Harvard later that day. Spot silver increased 2.2% to $71.13 an ounce. Palladium rose 4.1% and platinum gained 2.9%. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Ronojoy Mazumdar)
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PetroChina's operations are 'overall' normal, and the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for 10% of its supply.
PetroChina's chairman stated that the company is essentially operating as usual, and about 10% of its crude oil and natural gas supplies are delivered via the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is responsible for 20% of the world's oil and gas supply. A raging Iran War and an expanding conflict in the Middle East has effectively choked this route, driving oil prices up and forcing refiners, petrochemical manufacturers, and most importantly, petrochemical producers in Asia to reduce their output. Dai Houliang, chairman of PetroChina, told reporters that the company's sales of natural gas and crude oil are largely based on its own production in China. Imports via pipelines, equity stakes in projects outside of the Middle East, and non-Middle Eastern supply secured under long-term contracts account for 90% of PetroChina’s crude processing. Dai Houliang, Chairman of PetroChina's earnings briefing, said that the company can operate its oil and natural gas supply chains with relatively high rates and stable operating costs for a long time. Dai didn't elaborate on how China's second largest refiner, after Sinopec has "scaled back" production due to disruptions in Middle Eastern crude supply. Dai stated that although PetroChina's investments have been affected, they had contingency plans in place to ensure supplies through trading activities. He didn't elaborate. PetroChina is a major investor in the Middle East, including Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman.
The fear of aluminium shortages is heightened by Iran's attacks on Gulf producers
The Iranian strikes against major Middle East aluminium producers, such as Aluminium Bahrain and Emirates Global have heightened global fears about acute shortages.
Already, the U.S. and Israel's war against?Iran as well as the closure of Strait of Hormuz have restricted the?shipments of aluminium to the export markets of the?U.S. The U.S. and Europe.
Aluminium Bahrain, which operates 'the world's largest single site smelter said that it was assessing damage caused by the Iranian strikes. Emirates Global Aluminium said that its Al Taweelah facility suffered "significant damage".
MIDDLE EST PRODUCTION & EXPORTS
Around seven million metric tonnes of aluminium are smelted in the Middle East, which is around 9% global capacity.
The global aluminium supply is estimated to be 75 million tonnes this year. One analyst stated that about 75% of Middle Eastern aluminum production is exported.
Trade Data Monitor reports that Europe imported around 1.2 million tonnes of primary and alloyed aluminum from Egypt and the Middle East last year.
TDM reports that U.S. imports from the Middle East of primary and alloyed aluminum accounted for nearly 22 percent of its total of 3.4 million tonnes last year.
ALBA/EGA - PRODUCTION
In March, Alba initiated a shut-down of three smelting lines, which accounted for 19% of the company's capacity, in order to maintain business continuity in light of the disruption in Strait of Hormuz.
According to its website, Alba's smelter can produce up to 1.623 millions metric tons (or 1.8 million metric tonnes) of aluminium by 2025.
EGA's Al Taweelah facility produced 1.6 millions metric tons cast metal by 2025. The company has an adjacent alumina refining plant at Al Taweelah that produced 2.4 millions tons of aluminium raw materials last year.
EGA, which operates a smelter in Dubai at Jebel Ali, has said that it had a substantial amount of metal on the water and on the ground when the conflict started.
EGA produces around 2.7 millions metric tons primary aluminium each year in the UAE.
Impact on prices
The London Metal Exchange's prices for metals used in transport, construction and packaging hit a four-year high of $3,492 per metric ton.
Last week, the physical premium that European buyers pay over the LME price to cover freight, tax and handling costs?jumped to 469 dollars a ton, up $120 from the start of the war on February 28.
U.S.?premiums were already at record levels due to President Donald Trump's 50% tariffs on imports, imposed last June.
(source: Reuters)