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McGeever: Risk of dollar liquidity shock highlighted by Mideast crisis

This week, investors have been rushing to buy dollars amid the turmoil in the Middle East. It is a reminder of the difficult transition from a dollar-centric worldview towards a multi-polar, fractured financial system.

Investors are seeking relative safety in the most liquid asset of the world, the dollar.

Equity indices, which were the best performers in the first half of the year, are now in a slump: South Korea's KOSPI has fallen by nearly 20% in just two days. The dollar has risen by as much as 2 percent in just two days and Treasury yields have also soared.

Matt King, founder at Satori Insights says that this sudden dollar surge has nothing to do with a sudden change in growth or inflation expectations. Money flow is the issue - investors are scrambling for liquidity as they unwind the speculative frenzy that has inflated many markets over recent months.

Investors in a foxhole, despite all their fears of dollar devaluation, still need and want dollars.

Will Dollar Demise remain 'Glastic'?

This raises a wider question about what will happen in future crises, if the erosion of the dollar dominance continues.

Since the advent of the Euro in 1999, and China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the dollar has steadily declined as the leader of global trade, finance, and foreign exchange reserves.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 57% from 70% at the beginning of the 2000s.

Because the erosion was smooth and gradual the dollar liquidity continued to rise and the global financial systems built buffers for liquidity squeezes, after the historic shocks in 2008 and 2020.

The U.S. alliances and rules-based order that once lubricated the wheels of world markets and the economy with dollar liquidity are now crumbling. In the last year, major trade, political, and military conflicts erupted, making the investment landscape in the world extremely risky.

Barry Eichengreen is a professor at the University of California Berkeley and a renowned expert in international capital flows. He will be publishing his book, "Money Beyond Borders": Global Currencies From Croesus To Crypto, on March 17th.

Eichengreen examines the 2,500 year history of money and the reasons why certain currencies are important and then disappear. He also assesses the future of the dollar, as well as the role that cryptocurrencies and blockchain will play.

He argues that the dollar is still the dominant currency for FX reserves, international trade, finance, and invoicing. However, he worries that the decline of the dollar on these fronts could accelerate.

Eichengreen: "I am much more concerned than I used to be in the past." There is no obvious alternative to greenbacks, so we must continue to pray that the transition will be very gradual and seamless. We're now learning, however, that things are not as smooth anymore.

"A DELICATE POINT in Time"

The last few days were anything but smooth and have shown how desperately the world needs dollars.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, 89% of all FX transactions are on one side. This is the highest level in 25 years. The euro is the second most traded currency, accounting for?29% all FX transactions.

Additionally, the dollar is responsible for about half of all international payments. According to a Federal Reserve report, if you include intra-eurozone payments in the calculations, this share increases to about 60%. About 55% of bank claims in foreign currencies and international are denominated as dollars, while 60% of liabilities have the same currency.

It is estimated that 20% of oil trade in the world now takes place in currencies other than dollars, like the euro or the Chinese yuan. That means that around 80% of the world's crude oil trade is still in dollars.

Eichengreen has said that he believes a multi-polar financial and monetary system for the global economy would be beneficial to the world. Just as a diverse ecosystem is healthy for the planet.

"But we are not yet at a stage where other sources of liquidity in the global market could replace the dollar. Eichengreen: "We are now at a delicate time."

This seems like a bit of an understatement at a time where trade wars, and even real wars, are raging.

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(source: Reuters)