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Russell: Coking coal imports to Asia fell in February but recovery is imminent

In February, Asia's seaborne imports fell to their lowest level in three years due to a drop in demand by top buyers China and India.

The factors that are causing the decline in demand for coal, which is used to produce steel, appear to be temporary. It's possible that imports of this type of coal will begin to increase from April.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's seaborne exports of coking coal (also known as fuel) dropped to 15,85 million metric tonnes in February from 20,42 million in the previous month. This is the lowest level since February 2022.

India, the largest buyer, saw its imports fall to 4,56 million tons, from 6,26 million tons in January. This is the lowest since December 2021.

India's steel output has increased modestly in the fiscal period that began in April 2024. 124.8 million tonnes were reported for the ten months ending in January, an increase of about 4.5% compared to the previous fiscal period.

The industry has been struggling with two problems, including higher imports, and government restrictions on the import of coke, which is one of the raw materials that are used to convert ore to steel.

India, which is the second largest producer of crude iron and steel in the world, implemented quantitative restrictions with country-specific quotas for the import of low-ash metcoke. The total amount of overseas purchases was limited to 1.4 millions tons between January and June.

The government aimed to encourage domestic steelmakers to use domestically-produced coke, but some companies have said the local product doesn't meet quality standards, with at least one producer saying it would be forced to curtail output from April onwards.

Second, India's imports of steel reached a record in the first ten months of fiscal year. They were 8.3 million tonnes, up by 20.3% compared to the same period last year.

The government has proposed introducing a temporary tax or safeguard duty of 15 to 25 percent on imports of steel due to the high volume of imports.

South Korea was the largest supplier of steel in India, with 2.4 millions tons, from April to January. China, with 2.3, and Japan, with 1.8, were close behind.

The details of the tariffs will be released within a week. According to the Mint newspaper, 15% would be likely recommended. It would only be applicable to steel products that fall below a certain price.

Imposing tariffs on imports of steel should increase domestic steel production and boost demand for coking-coal imports.

The demand could increase if Indian producers of coke can convince domestic producers of steel that their product is appropriate. In a furnace, coking coal can be converted into coke.

CHINA TARIFFS

Kpler data shows that China, which is the world's second largest seaborne coking coal importer, saw its imports fall to an 18-month-low in February, with 2,88 million tons arriving, compared to 4,60 million tons in January.

China's coking coal imports tend to be lower at the end the northern winter, as steel mills reduce output to meet the lower demand and to cut air pollution.

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the demand for seaborne coal was also reduced by increased overland imports, which increased 5% to 56,8 million tons in 2024.

China's State Planner has stated that steel production in this year will be lower than 1.003 billion tonnes recorded in 2024. This is a pretty bad sign for coking coal exports.

China imposed a tariff of 15% on the import of U.S. coal as a retaliatory measure against a U.S. 10% tariff on all imports to China. This was later raised by President Donald Trump to 20%.

China's trade with the United States will be virtually halted by the duty on imports of coking coal from the United States. In 2024, China is expected to buy 5.75 million tonnes of this fuel, or 11.6% of all seaborne arrivals.

China may have to look for alternative suppliers in order to meet its coking coal requirements. The top exporters Australia and Canada are the most realistic options.

Seaborne prices are expected to be supported by the adjustments in trade flows that China's tariff has caused on U.S. Coking coal, despite February's weak volume.

Singapore Exchange contracts for Australian coal coking ended at $181 per ton on February 2, and are down by 12% from the highest price so far this year of $206 in January.

These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)