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US and China to start new talks on tariff truce, easing the path for Trump-Xi Meeting

The top U.S. economic officials and Chinese representatives will resume their talks on Monday in Stockholm to address long-standing economic disputes that are at the heart of a trade conflict between the two largest economies. They hope to extend the truce for three months while preventing tariff increases. China faces an August 12 deadline for a lasting tariff agreement with the Trump administration. Beijing and Washington had reached preliminary agreements in May and early June to end weeks' worth of escalating tariffs, and to stop the cutoff of rare-earth minerals.

If there is no agreement, the global supply chain could be thrown into turmoil by U.S. tariffs returning to triple-digit rates that would amount to an embargo on bilateral trade. The Stockholm talks follow Trump's largest trade deal to date with the European Union, which was announced on Sunday. It included a 15% tariff for most EU exports into the U.S. including autos. The EU will also invest $600 billion in U.S. energy and buy $750 billion of American energy over the next few years. The U.S. and China talks are not expected to produce a similar breakthrough, but trade analysts believe that a 90-day extension is likely of the tariff and export control ceasefire struck in mid May.

A further extension would help prevent further escalation, and allow for planning a possible meeting between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping at the end of October or beginning of November. A U.S. Treasury spokeswoman declined to comment on South China Morning Post's report, which cited unnamed sources who said that the two sides will refrain from introducing any new tariffs for 90 more days.

Trump's administration will soon impose new tariffs on China, including those on semiconductors. Pharmacies, ship to shore cranes and more.

"We are very close to making a deal with China." "We're very close to a deal with China. We'll see what happens," Trump told reporters Sunday, before European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed the tariff agreement. Financial Times reported Monday that the U.S. had paused curbs of tech exports to China in order to avoid disrupting talks with Beijing, and to support Trump's attempts to secure a meet-up with Xi. The newspaper reported that the Commerce Department's industry and security bureau, which is responsible for export controls, was told not to take any tough measures against China. This information came from current and former officials. The report could not be verified immediately. Outside of business hours, neither the White House nor the Department responded to requests for comments.

DEEPER ISSUES The previous U.S.-China talks held in Geneva and London, in May and in June, focused on reducing the U.S. and Chinese tariffs from triple-digit rates and restoring the flow for rare earth minerals that China had stopped and Nvidia H20 AI chips as well as other goods that the United States had stopped.

The talks so far have not covered broader economic topics. The U.S. has complained that China's export-driven, state-led model floods the world's markets with cheap products, while Beijing complains that U.S. export controls on technology goods are meant to stunt Chinese economic growth.

"Geneva and London really were just trying to get their relationship back on track, so that at some point they could actually negotiate about the questions which are the source of the initial disagreement between the two countries," said Scott Kennedy. He is an expert in China economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington.

Kennedy stated that "I would be surprised if some of these things were harvested early, but an extension of ceasefire for 90 more days seems the most likely result." U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent already announced a deadline extension. He also said that he wanted China to rebalance their economy from exports towards more domestic consumption, a goal of U.S. policymakers for decades. Analysts claim that the U.S. and China negotiations will take more time than other Asian nations because they are more complex. China's hold on the world market for rare earth magnets and minerals, which are used in everything from car windshield wiper motors to military hardware, has proven to be a powerful leverage point against U.S. industry.

TRUMP-XI MEETING?

There is speculation in the background about a meeting between Trump & Xi that could take place at the end of October. Trump has stated that he would decide on a historic trip to China soon, and any new tariffs or export controls could derail the planning.

Sun Chenghao is a fellow with the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua's Center for International Security and Strategy, Beijing. He said the Trump-Xi Summit would give the U.S. an opportunity to lower its 20% tariffs against Chinese products related to fentanyl. He said that in exchange for the Chinese commitment to purchase more U.S. farm goods and other goods by 2020, they could fulfill their 2020 pledge.

Sun stated that the future summit of heads of state is very helpful to negotiations, as everyone wants to achieve an agreement or pave a way for the negotiations in advance.

Analysts said that China would likely ask for a further easing of U.S. export controls on high-tech products and a reduction in the multi-layered U.S. duties totaling 55 percent. Beijing argues that these purchases will help reduce the U.S.-China trade deficit, which is expected to reach $295.5 billion by 2024. (Reporting and editing by Diane Craft, Stephen Coates, and Shivani Tanna; Additional reporting in Bengaluru by Shivani.

(source: Reuters)