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Andy Home: Tin bulls retreat as Myanmar flags the return of a key mine

Andy Home: Tin bulls retreat as Myanmar flags the return of a key mine

The Wa State in Myanmar, a semiautonomous region, has finally broken a year-long silence about the fate of Man Maw Tin Mine.

The mine is the crown jewel of Myanmar's tin industry. Its suspension in August 2023 - ostensibly to conduct an audit - has reduced the flow tin materials from Myanmar to Chinese smelters and thereby constrained the output of refined metal.

The Wa authorities now say they are ready for applications to be submitted for mining and processing licenses at Man Maw. This indicates that it is likely to return in the second half of this year.

The International Tin Association confirmed the news and the London Metal Exchange's (LME) tin prices have fallen.

MAN MAW RETURNS

Myanmar, after China and Indonesia, is the third largest producer of tin in the world. Man Maw was the largest tin mine until it was suspended.

As the Wa State, which controls Myanmar’s tin industry, does not have smelters, all of the tin mined is sent over to China’s Yunnan Province.

The raw material shipment patterns were not much different in the first few months after the suspension of Man Maw operations, as the above-ground stock was processed.

China's imports of Myanmar products have dropped significantly in the last nine-month period, from 54,900 metric tons during the first half of this year to 94,600 metric tons for the previous year.

Some smaller tin mining operations have reopened but they are nowhere near as important as Man Maw.

Chinese producers have tried compensating by reducing imports of other countries, such as Australia and Bolivia.

The total imports of raw tin materials in 2024 were down 36% on an annual basis, and were at 156.700 tons the lowest since 2010.

Lack of raw materials has impacted smelter margins, and is a major factor in China's refine metal production.

BULLS WITH WRONG-FOOTED

Unsurprisingly, the news of Man Maw’s return caused a sale in London's tin market.

LME's three-month metal soared to a four month high of $33,790 a ton on the 21st of February. Tin was the top performer of the LME's base metals, with gains to date of 15.8%.

Funds have been increasing their bull bets steadily on higher prices. At the end of the last week, long positioning had reached a new record of 5,172 contracts. This is equivalent to nearly 26,000 tons.

Last week, after the ITA confirmed that Man Maw would return, the price of a ton dropped to $31,050. This week it has risen to as high as $32,145.

It is not unreasonable to expect a partial price recovery, given that it could be several months until the mine starts producing tin once again.

STRUCTURAL RISK

The Wa State's announcement that it is ready for licenses is just the first step in a full reopening.

The ITA states that even after licenses have been granted, it may take a few months for workers, mainly those from China, in order to obtain work permits and return to Myanmar.

After such a long period of suspension, it is likely that the mine will need to be dewatered. This means that the shipments into China will only begin to pick up in the second half.

Chinese smelters continue to face a shortage of raw materials and the production of refined metal will be affected until raw material flow returns to its pre-suspension level.

The M23 rebels' advances to the east of Congo is a major concern for the tin supply market.

So far, the Bisie mine in this country, which produced 17,324 metric tons of tin-contained concentrates last year, is unaffected.

The mine is about 200 km west of the insurgent-controlled area, but Alphamin Resources Corp. has warned the increased risk at Bisie.

This highlights tin’s structural supply issues. The market, which is often hailed as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the energy transition and internet of things, is still dependent on a small number of global suppliers.

The structural supply risk is not changed by the return of Man Maw.

The author is a columnist at

(source: Reuters)