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Chile lowers its copper production estimate for 2025

Chile's copper state commission has lowered its estimate of growth for 2025, saying that it expects a 1.5% increase from last year. This is half the growth estimated by the commission in May, which was 3%. Cochilco announced on Wednesday that the production of the world's largest copper exporter will reach 5.58 millions metric tons in this year. The commission also maintained its forecast for copper prices to average $4.30 per pound in 2025-2026.

The Commission said that the decline in growth forecast was due to the June decrease in production of BHP's Escondida Mine, the world's largest copper deposit, and Collahuasi which is jointly operated by Anglo American & Glencore.

The commission stated in a recent report that the decline in June was a turning point in the year. While the total figure is still positive the monthly trend is downward and could pose risks in the second half of the calendar year if not corrected. The commission also stated that the recent fatal collapse of Codelco's El Teniente mining facility could pose a "significant supply disruption risk."

Cochilco's 2026 growth forecast was maintained at 3%, but production estimates were reduced to 5.75 from 5.97 millions tons.

The commission stated that it was maintaining its global price estimates due to the limited supply of concentrated and sustained demand in China and other emerging markets.

The market is expected to remain "structurally-tight" due to the fact that smelting capacities will continue to grow, especially in Asia. Patricia Gamboa's, Cochilco’s head of Research, stated that this imbalance between processing and supply would be crucial to maintain prices above historical averages, even if volatility caused by tariffs or stock cycles decreased.

The global demand for refined Copper is projected to increase by 2.4%, reaching 27 million tonnes in 2026. China is the largest copper consumer, with a demand estimated at 15,7 million tons for 2025 and 15,8 million tons for 2026. Cochilco anticipates that India's demand will grow 7.5% by 2025 due to industrialization and energy transition. (Reporting and writing by Fabian Cambero, Alexander Villegas, Editing by Brendan O'Boyle & Rosalba O'Brien).

(source: Reuters)