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Take Five: the big Trump tariff countdown

The deadline for President Donald Trump to impose tariffs is fast approaching, while the U.S. releases data on jobs and the markets gauge the new AI landscape before major tech companies report.

Bank of England is deciding on interest rates, and lenders across Europe are also publishing their results.

Kevin Buckland, Saqib Ahmad, Lewis Krauskopf, and Amanda Cooper, in London, provide a guide to global markets for the coming week.

1/T DAY

Everyone wants to know the severity of Trump's tariffs. From currency traders and bond investors to Fed officials and other foreign powers.

Trump's promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico until illegal migrants and fentanyl are stopped from crossing their border could be the most telling sign so far. Tariffs will be applied to a combined trillion dollar of U.S. bound shipments per year.

Canada has launched a crackdown on fentanyl to head off any possible action. Mexico, in December, made the largest fentanyl arrest in its history.

China is arguably a more interesting case. Anyone can guess whether the 10% tariffs that have been mooted will also be in place for Saturday. The White House confirmed that it is still seriously considering the possibility, despite Trump saying he did not want to use tariffs against China after a "friendly phone call" with Xi Jinping.

Should I stay or should I go?

Investors are assessing the prospect of further interest rate reductions and the potential impact that new Trump Administration policies may have on the labour market. The U.S. monthly jobs report is due to be released on February 7.

The blowout December jobs report led to doubts over whether the Fed could ease its monetary policy any further. This sent Treasury yields soaring. Inflation data that were encouraging did calm the market, but a strong January jobs report may change everything.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that he will not cut rates until inflation and employment data indicate it is appropriate.

Trump's agenda on the labour market is a big unknown. It includes a crackdown on immigration and plans to reduce the federal workforce. The White House offers 2 million federal workers financial incentives to leave.

3 TECH-TONIC SHIFTs

Investors have speculated for years about what could slow down the AI investment steamroller. Now, they have a fresh perspective: the emergence of China's AI sensation DeepSeek. It has rewritten assumptions about computing power and the amount of money needed to develop state-of-the art models.

This change shattered Nvidia stock's value, causing it to plummet. DeepSeek also challenges the dominance of U.S. tech, and raises questions about the competitive advantage of the seven top tech stocks, known as the Magnificent Seven.

Investors will be able to decide whether the recent AI market volatility represents a warning for future challenges, or an opportunity to invest in this rapidly expanding sector.

4/IN FOR A SLEEZE

The pace of European bank earnings will pick up in the coming week, as BNP Paribas and Societe Generale report their fourth-quarter results, followed by UBS and Santander from Spain and Switzerland.

The majority of lenders will have wrung out enough extra cash from higher interest rates, helped by soaring revenues in investment banking. This will boost their profits to keep the two-year rally going. Investors are looking for signs that the recent surge in deal-making is not over.

Still, there are challenges. The falling interest rates put pressure on the banks' earnings on loans and their deposits. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic growth is accelerating.

Deutsche Bank, a German bank, has caused concern after it reported a steep drop in profit and abandoned a major goal regarding costs. This sent its shares down.

5/DECISION TIMES

On Thursday, the Bank of England will meet to set interest rate. The markets haven't fully priced in a quarter point cut but economists appear to believe that this is likely.

UK data are weakening. Multiple measures of employment indicate cracks in the labour markets, and unexpectedly consumer spending fell during the crucial holiday shopping season. The BoE predicts that growth will remain flat in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Many banks believe that the British economy will struggle to grow by even 1% in this year, despite plans from Finance Minister Rachel Reeves to revive growth.

The bond market turmoil that occurred earlier this month pushed government borrowing costs for 10-year bonds to their highest level since 2008. Gilt yields are down, but still uncomfortably high at 4.5%. This is more than any other G10 country except New Zealand.

(source: Reuters)