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TSX futures are rising as gold continues to gain.
Futures for Canada’s main stock index increased?on Friday as gold prices continued to rise amid rising concerns about a possible conflict between the United States and Iran. As of 5:16 a.m., March futures?on S&P/TSX -composite index rose 0.3%. ET. Toronto's benchmark stock index reached a new record on Thursday, despite Wall Street ending lower. This was due to gains in commodity stocks. The benchmark index is expected to rise for a third straight week. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, warned Iran Thursday that "really bad" things could happen if it fails to reach an "meaningful agreement" over its nuclear program in the next 15 days. Gold spot gained 0.6% despite the fact that it appeared to be heading for a weekly loss, as the U.S. Dollar rose to an almost one-month high. Silver prices rose 3%, and copper also increased. Oil prices fell as traders remained unfazed by Trump's comments, which increased concerns about a possible U.S. Iran conflict. Brent crude futures, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude were both down by more than 0.5%. However, they are expected to make their first weekly gains in three weeks. Investors will also be looking at U.S. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Report, due later today, will provide further insight into the policy direction of the central?bank. Gold miners Lundin Gold, Eldorado?Gold and others beat expectations for fourth-quarter earnings in their after-market earnings reports on Thursday. CLICK 'ON CODES' TO GET CANADIAN MARKETS UPDATES TSX Market Report Canadian Dollar and Bond Report Global Stocks Poll for Canada Canadian Markets Directory (Reporting and Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri; Reporting by Utkarsh T. Hathi)
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Oil prices rise as US-Iran tensions increase global shares
Global shares rose on Friday, despite heightened tensions about a possible conflict between the United States &?Iran which has helped push oil prices to their highest levels in six months. The?pan European?STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.5%, and is on course for its fourth week of gains. The S&P 500 futures in the U.S. rose 0.4%. Investors will be battling a mix of geopolitical risks, economic signals, and political flashpoints as the session concludes a volatile global asset week. Mabrouk Chetouane is the head of global strategy at Natixis Investment Managers. He said: "Clearly equity investors have adapted to the noise in geopolitical environments." They are still focusing on economic fundamentals rather than geopolitical risk. When you examine metrics like valuations, earnings, and interest rate expectation, things seem to be stable. According to LSEG data, as of?Wednesday 163 STOXX 600 companies had released their quarterly results. Of these, 57.1% were above analysts' expectations. The data shows that 73% of the companies in the S&P 500 who reported their earnings last week exceeded revenue expectations. Nvidia will report its earnings next week, which will be the main focus of markets. Investors will also be analyzing global business activity surveys, U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product numbers, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the core personal expenditures price index. DOLLAR NOTCHES?WEEKLY GAINS The dollar was headed for the biggest weekly gain in four months in foreign exchange trading, thanks to a patchwork a slightly better U.S. economic data and Fed minutes that indicated policymakers were not in a hurry to lower rates. The dollar has gained about 1% over the past week compared to the euro. This brings the currency common up to $1.1767. Francesco Pesole, ING FX's strategist, said that the dollar's "safe-haven appeal" is generally reduced but fully restored when oil shocks are triggered by geopolitical tensions. The yen fell in Japan after data revealed that the country's core rate of inflation was 2% in the month of January, its lowest pace in the past two years. This could complicate the central bank's path to raise rates. The dollar has gained 1.8% in the last week to 155.4 yen. U.S. Treasuries are steady with 10-year yields of 4.07%. However, the Fed's minutes show a division over how quickly to reduce rates. This has pushed up two-year yields to 3.47%. The yields on Germany's benchmark 10-year Bunds (the euro zone benchmark) were set to decline by 2 basis points this week. OIL SURGES ON US MILITARY BUILDUP Benchmark Brent crude futures reached 6-1/2-month highs above $72 per barrel after U.S. president Donald Trump gave Iran a 10- to 15-day deadline to reach a nuclear deal or else "really bad" things would happen. The political rhetoric has escalated dramatically. Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said that even a limited disruption of shipping lanes or credible threats could cause a supply shock. Kenji Abe said that the news, taken together, had investors avoiding risk. Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets, said: "There doesn't seem to be any point in increasing risk before this weekend's unrest surrounding the Middle East." Today feels like a great day to avoid trouble." Reporting by Niket Nishant in London and Tom Westbrook, Singapore; editing by Kim Coghill and Shri Navaratnam.
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Anglo American suffers $3.7 billion loss due to De Beers write-down
Anglo American reported a $3.7billion loss on Friday, after another writedown of its diamonds business. The miner is pushing ahead with plans to shed its non-core assets as well as complete its merger with?Teck Resources. Anglo has wrapped up an uneven reporting season for London listed mining groups. This highlights the divergent fortunes of the industry as Antofagasta benefitted from rising copper prices, while other diversified peers suffered due to weaker markets in iron ore and diamonds. The company recorded a $2.3bn pre-tax impairment on its De Beers division, reducing carrying value from over $4bn to $2.3bn. Analysts' estimates of EBITDA or core earnings at $6.4 billion was in line. The company declared a $0.23 dividend per share or approximately $200 million. This was down from $0.64 per share or $800 millions a year ago. By 0919 GMT, the company's shares were up 1.7%. Anglo, who in July discontinued its?nickel-and steelmaking coal assets it seeks to sell, wants to focus on iron ore and copper assets. The company announced that it is moving forward on plans to sell De Beers. The company announced that it could partner with Mitsubishi Corp to develop its Woodsmith Fertiliser Project in northern England. It had previously placed the project on maintenance and care. "We ?believe this potential partnership would add optionality and time to pursue further syndication/partnerships," said Goldman Sachs analysts. DE BEERS - SPIN OFF Anglo has revised its value of De Beers following the unit's?third consecutive year of production decline. De Beers also lowered its production forecast for 2026 due to the weak demand and high inventory levels that continue to affect the diamond market. Anglo has already written off De Beers value by $3.5 billion in the last two years. Duncan Wanblad, CEO of Anglo Diamonds told reporters that there was a large supply of rough diamonds on the market. He said that the sale of De Beers was at an advanced level. He said: "We must... reach final binding bids, then choose the partner we wish to work with and negotiate with all parties involved including the Botswana government." Wanblad stated that multiple consortia have shown interest in De Beers. Anglo had put it up for sale to facilitate a wider restructuring. Botswana has announced that it will increase its shareholding. It is already a 15% shareholder, and sources 70% of its annual rough production. Angola is pursuing a stake of 20-30% in De Beers. This proposal is being discussed with other African producers of diamonds, according to a senior official at the Angola mining ministry. Wanblad is "optimistic", he said, that a contract will be signed in the upcoming year. TECK TIE UP Anglo, the only major miner that has secured a deal despite companies being under pressure to increase their copper portfolios announced in September a merger of $53 billion with Teck, which is a stock-only, no-premium transaction. Wanblad, who spoke on Friday, said that he expected the deal to be approved between September and March as China and South Korea's regulatory approvals are still pending. Anglo American and BHP Group, the world's biggest mining company, were both attempting to acquire Anglo. The combined entity will produce over 1.2 million tons of copper per year. The demand for copper, a metal used in the construction and power industries, will increase due to electric vehicles and artificial intelligent. Clara Denina is the reporter. Mark Potter, Jan Harvey and Clara Denina edited the report.
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Anglo American suffers $3.7 billion loss due to De Beers writedown
?Anglo American reported a $3.7billion loss?on Friday, after taking a?writedown?on its diamonds' business. The miner is pushing ahead with its plans to shed its non-core assets as well as complete its merger with Teck Resources. Anglo has wrapped up the mixed reporting season of London-listed mining companies, highlighting the divergent fortunes in this industry. Antofagasta, for example, benefited from rising copper prices, while other diversified groups struggled to cope with weaker markets for iron ore and diamonds. The company declared a $0.23 dividend per share or about $200 million. It booked a $2.3billion pre-tax impairment related to its De Beers division. This was down from $800 million or $0.64 per share a year ago. Analysts' estimates of core earnings (EBITDA) of $6.4 billion are in line. The share price of the company opened London 1.3% higher. Anglo is focusing on iron ore and copper assets after selling its nickel and steelmaking assets in July. The company?demerged their platinum business in May?and announced that it was moving forward with plans for selling De Beers. DE BEERS SPIDER-OFF Anglo reassessed De Beers' value after the unit reported a third consecutive year of production decline. De Beers also lowered its production forecast for 2026 as low demand and high inventories continue weighing on the diamond industry. Anglo has already reduced De Beers value by $3.5 billion in the last two years. Duncan Wanblad, CEO of Anglo Diamonds told reporters that there was a large supply of rough diamonds on the market. He said that the sale of 'De Beers' is well underway. "We have to... finalize?binding offers and then choose the partner we want to work with, and negotiate with all parties involved including the Botswana government," he said. Wanblad stated that multiple consortia have shown interest in De Beers. Anglo had put it up for sale to help with a "broader restructuring". Botswana has already stated that it plans to "increase" its stake. The country is a 15 percent shareholder, and the source of 70 percent of its annual rough-diamond?production. Angola wants to own 20-30% of De Beers. This proposal is being discussed with other African diamond producers. Wanblad is "optimistic", he said, that a contract will be signed in this year. Clara Denina reported. Mark Potter, Jan Harvey and Clara Denina edited the report.
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US ambassador says US is negotiating with India over Venezuelan oil sales
U.S. officials say that they are in "active negotiations" to sell Venezuelan crude oil to India, helping India diversify their sources of crude oil. Sergio Gor, the Envoy to India said Friday. The U.S. made diversification from Russian crude an important condition to reducing tariffs on Indian goods, the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world. Gor, a reporter on the sidelines of a New Delhi event where India joined the U.S. led Pax Silica initiative to build a silicon supply for high-tech devices, said: "The Department of Energy speaks with the Ministry of Energy in this country. We hope?to hear some news very soon." This month, U.S. president Donald?Trump agreed to reduce tariffs on Indian products to 18% as part of an interim trade agreement. He also removed the 25% punitive tax?after India agreed not to purchase Russian oil which, according to the U.S., helps finance?Russian invasion of Ukraine. He said India would buy more oil, possibly from Venezuela and the U.S. Gor stated that a final trade agreement with India would be signed "sooner rather than later", as "a few tweaking points" were required. He added that Prime Minister NarendraModi had invited Trump to India. India's Trade Minister, Piyush Ghoyal, stated on Friday that the interim trade agreement is expected to take effect in April, and that the U.S. will likely issue a formal notice this month to lower its tariff on Indian products to 18%. After Russia's invasion in 2022, the U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions against Russia's energy industry. India became the largest buyer of Russian crude oil, which it purchased at a rock-bottom price. This upset the Western nations. "On oil, there is an agreement... we have seen India diversify their oil. There is an agreement. It's not about India. Gor stated that the United States does not want anyone to buy Russian oil. Last month, it was reported that the U.S. had "pitch" to India the sale of Venezuelan crude oil in order to replace Russian oil imports. After capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and negotiating a supply deal with interim president Delcy Rodriguez, the government granted trading houses 'Vitol' and 'Trafigura" licences to sell and market?millions barrels of Venezuelan crude oil. Reportedly, the state-owned Indian Oil Corp., Hindustan Petroleum, and Bharat Petroleum, as well as private sector refiners Reliance Industries, HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Reliance Industries have all ordered Venezuelan crude oil.
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Indonesia Stock Exchange to release $11 billion in shares amid global scrutiny
According to an IDX official and an analysis of publicly available data, nearly one third of the companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange - including some of its largest listings - would be affected. This could lead to over $11 billion of new'share supply. Indonesia has announced a number of capital market reforms following a warning from index provider MSCI, in late January, that the country could be downgraded to a frontier status as early as may due to market opacity which may have allowed for 'price manipulation. The plan includes a key component of raising the minimum level of free float for listed companies from 7.5% to 15%. According to IDX's assessment of the end of 2025, 267 of the over 900 companies listed on IDX would need to issue new shares, sell some of their holdings or buy back equity in order to go private. IDX director I Gede Nyoman Yetna stated that if no company chose to delist they would be required to offer the public a total of 187 trillion Rupiah worth ($11.08 billion). Liza Camelia Suryanata is the head of research for Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia. She said that if the increase in free float was properly designed, it could be a turning point to improve the quality and attractiveness?of Indonesian capital markets. She said that short-term volatility could undermine the confidence in this reform, which is what it aims to do. Since the beginning of time, exchanges have struggled to find ways to promote trading in tightly held stocks. A series of corporate governance reforms in Japan, such as asking companies to maintain 35% free float minimum, have helped the market and brought it onto the radar of foreign investors. Analyzed publicly available data in order to determine which Indonesian firms would be most affected. The Top 5 Barito Renewables Energy is the largest company in IDX by market capitalisation. According to publicly available data, the company owned by Indonesian billionaire PrajogoPangestu will need to sell shares worth more than $1.8billion to reach the 15% threshold. Other names on the list include?Bank Permata whose majority shareholder, Bangkok Bank, could be required to offer new shares worth around $450m, and Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna controlled by U.S. Tobacco giant Philip Morris International at $420m. Bank Syariah Indonesia, the state lender, will need to issue shares worth $350 million, while Lim Hariyanto, an Indonesian nickel tycoon, will need to raise $230 million through secondary offerings. The companies have not responded to the request for comments. Hasan Fawzi, interim chief capital markets supervisor for the Financial Services Authority in Indonesia (OJK), has said that companies may be given up to three years of transition time. However, exact details are still pending. The Big Challenge Analysts warn that the oversupply of products could have a significant impact on valuations. The increase in free float was "good for transparency, but can our market cope with it? Will investor demand increase as well? One stock trader who refused to be named because he was not authorized to speak with media lamented this. Gilman Pradana nugraha, executive Director of the Indonesian Issuers Association, stated that regulators must be aware that not all companies will be ready right away. He said that "adjusting the free float" is not only a technical issue, but also relates to our strategy of managing valuation and stock price stability. Gilman stated that a 'timeline too short could potentially trigger unhealthy sales pressure. CREATING DEMAND The warning from MSCI has already caused some international investors reduce their exposure to Indonesian stocks. Confidence in the bond and money market of Indonesia is also declining due to concerns about fiscal health and independence of the central bank. To absorb the additional share supply, the authorities plan to double the equity investment limit for insurance companies and pension funds from 10% to 20%. Indonesia's social insurance fund BPJS Ketenagakerjaan and the sovereign wealth fund Danantara could both provide support. Retail investors could also demand the product. Retail transactions accounted for half of the daily average trading volume of 18 trillion rupiah in 2025. Bernadus WIJAYA, the chief executive officer of brokerage Sucor Sekuritas said that if MSCI maintains Indonesia's status as an "emerging markets" in May, then there will be a demand from foreign investors who are returning to Indonesia. Beyond Free FLOat Some analysts, however, said that the quality of overall market reforms would be closely monitored, rather than just a higher level of free-float. This is especially true with Indonesia's stock-frying, or "gorenggorengsaham", which are used to boost prices. Analysts also warn that ownership of certain firms may remain concentrated even with a larger free float. $1 = 16,885,0000 rupiah (Reporting and editing by Gibran Peshimam, Kim Coghill and Gayatri Sulaiman)
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Reliance and ICICI Bank recover after initial jitters in Indian stocks
Indian share benchmarks recovered from initial jitters to rise?by mid-day on Friday as heavyweight stocks clawed back some?of the previous session's loss. As of 12:11 p.m. IST, the Nifty '50?added 0.54%, to 25,592.6. The BSE Sensex rose 0.48%, to 82897.3. The indexes had dropped about 0.3% on the opening, adding to a drop of 1.5% in the previous session. This was their biggest single-day decline in over two weeks. 15 of 16 major sectors were higher. The small-caps, mid-caps, and large-caps all added 0.1% to 0.5% respectively. Naveen Vyas is the head of the?family office of Anand Rathi Global Finance. Reliance Industries, a heavyweight, and?ICICI Bank, a smaller company, both rose on Friday by 0.9% and 0.7 percent, respectively, following sags of 2.2% and 1.4% in the previous session. The volatility index, a measure for expected volatility in the market over the next 30 day, spiked to 14.36 this week, barely missing an eight-month-high hit during the run-up to February 1's federal budget. Brent crude oil has risen to $72 a barrel due to tensions in the Middle East. The rise in crude oil prices is a problem for India, the third largest crude importer in the world. "We're still not out of trouble. Vyas said that if Brent crude oil surpasses $75 a barrel and remains at that level for a few months, it could add further pressure to Indian stocks. The IT index, which fell 0.5% in the last quarter of 2018, was the only major sector to lose ground. This is due to the continued concern over AI-related disruptions on earnings. Reporting by Vivek M and Bharathrajeswaran, Editing by Rashmi aich, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Harikrishnan Nair
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Mineral Resources makes an interim profit due to increased Onslow production and lithium rebound
Australia's Mineral Resources reported stronger-than-expected interim earnings on Friday, ?buoyed by steady nameplate-capacity output from its flagship Onslow Iron project ?and a rebound in lithium ?prices. Mineral Resources'?mining? services volumes rose by 22.1%, to a new record of 166 million wet tons. The group's Onslow Iron project reached nameplate capacity last August and its operations recovered following haul-road upgrades made after a road train accident earlier this year. Onslow Iron's production increased to 17.3 metric tonnes of wet iron on a 100 % basis, compared with 6.3 metric tons wet iron a year ago. The Mining Services division reported a?EBITDA for the first six months of A$488m, an increase of 29% over the previous year. This helped lift the group EBITDA to a record A$1.2b, a 286% jump from the last year. Board chair Malcolm Bundey stated that "Onslow Iron has now proven to be a cash-generative operation" and added that the mining services division "continues delivering superior performance." MinRes' Lithium division achieved a?underlying EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest and Tax) of A$167million, which is a tenfold rise from last year, as the price of the battery metal soared amid increasing battery storage demand, along with the squeeze in supply following the August production The underlying net profit was A$343 (US$242.16M) for the first half of the year. This is a significant improvement over the A$196.9 million consensus estimate by Visible Alpha. The financial and 'operating improvement of MIN is remarkable. Sandstone Insights analysts said that the company has not yet reached its promised land of distributing surplus cash to shareholders. However, it does have a plan and momentum to reach this goal. MinRes chose not to declare an interim dividend and instead focused on "deleveraging" amid significant scrutiny surrounding its capital expenditure at Onslow. After capital expenditures had driven?it up to A$5.3billion at the end of FY2025, this level had caused concern among investors. The lithium miner's shares rose up to 4.3%, reaching a two-week high. However, they closed more than 5% lower.
Take Five: the big Trump tariff countdown
The deadline for President Donald Trump to impose tariffs is fast approaching, while the U.S. releases data on jobs and the markets gauge the new AI landscape before major tech companies report.
Bank of England is deciding on interest rates, and lenders across Europe are also publishing their results.
Kevin Buckland, Saqib Ahmad, Lewis Krauskopf, and Amanda Cooper, in London, provide a guide to global markets for the coming week.
1/T DAY
Everyone wants to know the severity of Trump's tariffs. From currency traders and bond investors to Fed officials and other foreign powers.
Trump's promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico until illegal migrants and fentanyl are stopped from crossing their border could be the most telling sign so far. Tariffs will be applied to a combined trillion dollar of U.S. bound shipments per year.
Canada has launched a crackdown on fentanyl to head off any possible action. Mexico, in December, made the largest fentanyl arrest in its history.
China is arguably a more interesting case. Anyone can guess whether the 10% tariffs that have been mooted will also be in place for Saturday. The White House confirmed that it is still seriously considering the possibility, despite Trump saying he did not want to use tariffs against China after a "friendly phone call" with Xi Jinping.
Should I stay or should I go?
Investors are assessing the prospect of further interest rate reductions and the potential impact that new Trump Administration policies may have on the labour market. The U.S. monthly jobs report is due to be released on February 7.
The blowout December jobs report led to doubts over whether the Fed could ease its monetary policy any further. This sent Treasury yields soaring. Inflation data that were encouraging did calm the market, but a strong January jobs report may change everything.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that he will not cut rates until inflation and employment data indicate it is appropriate.
Trump's agenda on the labour market is a big unknown. It includes a crackdown on immigration and plans to reduce the federal workforce. The White House offers 2 million federal workers financial incentives to leave.
3 TECH-TONIC SHIFTs
Investors have speculated for years about what could slow down the AI investment steamroller. Now, they have a fresh perspective: the emergence of China's AI sensation DeepSeek. It has rewritten assumptions about computing power and the amount of money needed to develop state-of-the art models.
This change shattered Nvidia stock's value, causing it to plummet. DeepSeek also challenges the dominance of U.S. tech, and raises questions about the competitive advantage of the seven top tech stocks, known as the Magnificent Seven.
Investors will be able to decide whether the recent AI market volatility represents a warning for future challenges, or an opportunity to invest in this rapidly expanding sector.
4/IN FOR A SLEEZE
The pace of European bank earnings will pick up in the coming week, as BNP Paribas and Societe Generale report their fourth-quarter results, followed by UBS and Santander from Spain and Switzerland.
The majority of lenders will have wrung out enough extra cash from higher interest rates, helped by soaring revenues in investment banking. This will boost their profits to keep the two-year rally going. Investors are looking for signs that the recent surge in deal-making is not over.
Still, there are challenges. The falling interest rates put pressure on the banks' earnings on loans and their deposits. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic growth is accelerating.
Deutsche Bank, a German bank, has caused concern after it reported a steep drop in profit and abandoned a major goal regarding costs. This sent its shares down.
5/DECISION TIMES
On Thursday, the Bank of England will meet to set interest rate. The markets haven't fully priced in a quarter point cut but economists appear to believe that this is likely.
UK data are weakening. Multiple measures of employment indicate cracks in the labour markets, and unexpectedly consumer spending fell during the crucial holiday shopping season. The BoE predicts that growth will remain flat in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Many banks believe that the British economy will struggle to grow by even 1% in this year, despite plans from Finance Minister Rachel Reeves to revive growth.
The bond market turmoil that occurred earlier this month pushed government borrowing costs for 10-year bonds to their highest level since 2008. Gilt yields are down, but still uncomfortably high at 4.5%. This is more than any other G10 country except New Zealand.
(source: Reuters)