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Minister Carney of Canada says that Trump and Carney have direct contact regarding tariffs.
Melanie Joly, Canada's Minister of Industry, said that the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is in direct contact with U.S. president Donald Trump as Ottawa tries to convince Washington to lower tariffs. She told reporters, "We're in a trade conflict and it is normal that there are diplomatic negotiations going on at the same time as the trade war. That's why Prime Minister Carney, and President Trump, talk to eachother." The Globe and Mail reported that the U.S. ambassador to Canada had said earlier that the two leaders held secret direct talks in order to develop a framework of a security and trade deal. This week, Trump doubled tariffs for imports of aluminum and steel to 50%. This move could hurt Canada as it is the biggest seller of metals in the U.S. Carney stated on Wednesday that Canada is "preparing reprisals" if the negotiations fail. Pete Hoekstra is the U.S. Ambassador to Canada. He told The Globe that the two sides are "laying out the parameters" of a possible deal. This could include boosting U.S. auto content, improving U.S. accessibility to Canadian critical minerals, and ensuring Canada plays a larger role in the Arctic. He also said that the talks would include increased spending on defense, energy, border safety, steel, aluminum, and stopping the smuggling fentanyl. Carney's Office declined to comment. An official from the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa wrote an email saying that "both the Prime Minister and President, or members of both teams, have publicly acknowledged there are ongoing discussions". Unifor, Canada's largest private-sector union, called on Carney on Wednesday to take immediate action. (Reporting from David Ljunggren, Ottawa; Anusha Shah, Bengaluru. Editing by Leslie Adler & Sandra Maler.
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IAEA team in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia claims it heard repeated gunshots
The U.N. nuclear watchdog reported on Thursday that international monitors heard gunfire at the Russian-owned Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine. It appeared to be directed at drones which were reportedly attacking the training centre at the plant. In the first weeks before Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian forces captured the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest facility with six reactors. Since then, both sides have accused each other of attacking and threatening nuclear safety the Zaporizhzhia plant. IAEA monitors reported hearing five explosions, preceded each by gunfire between 11:15 a.m. to 13:45 pm local time. The statement did not mention the origins of the drones, and there was no damage reported to the center. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi stated that drones flying near nuclear power plants can threaten their safety and security with potential serious consequences. As I've said repeatedly throughout the war, these incidents must cease immediately. In the statement, it said that this was the fourth time in the past year that drones had reportedly targeted the training centre located outside the perimeter of the site. The Russian management of the plant had said earlier that Ukrainian drones landed on top of the training centre in a "yet again attack" against the facility. There were no injuries or damages reported. With all reactors shut down, the Zaporizhzhia plant produces no electricity. It produced one-fifth the electricity of Ukraine before the war. Grossi said last week that although Russia "never concealed the fact" it wanted to restart its plant, it could not do so soon due to a lack of water for cooling as well as a stable supply of electricity. Reporting by Urvi dugar Editing by Alexandra Hudson Ron Popeski Chizu Nomiyama
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US stocks are on a roller coaster ride as investors balance soft data against potential progress in US China trade talks
Wall Street and crude prices both advanced on Thursday, as investors weighed the new trade talks between U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping with a series of disappointing economic data in advance of Friday's important jobs report. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow were all modestly lower, and the Dow barely in positive territory. U.S. Treasury rates fluctuated, and gold was weaker. Trump and Xi spoke by phone Thursday to try to resolve the trade dispute between the two world's largest economies. They agreed to continue discussions, according the summaries from the U.S. Thomas Martin, Senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT, Atlanta, said: "The market appears to accept that if people are talking, they won't do anything dramatic, and if the don't, it's fine to buy stocks right now." People are guessing, and trying to figure out which direction the wind will blow. The wind shifts. Martin continued, "I believe investors want to buy stocks because they are afraid to miss out. But they don't want them if they will be a catastrophe." The economic data revealed that initial jobless claims reached the highest level since Oct., and a 16.3% decline in imports due to Trump's erratic policy resulted in the smallest U.S. Trade Gap since November 2023. The Labor Department's May employment report is expected to be released on Friday. However, weaker-than-expected data from the labor market, such as a 47% increase in Challenger layoffs year-on-year and a major surprise in ADP private payrolls have dampened expectations. Matthew Keator is the managing partner of the Keator Group, based in Lenox, Massachusetts. He believes that the Federal Reserve could implement more than one cut in interest rates before the year ends. Keator stated that "with some of the more benign numbers on inflation and the potential increase in jobless claims, the Fed might have more reason to (cut rates) more than once during this year." This could be a positive sign for certain sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 62.89, or 0.15 percent, to 42.491.60. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped 3.56 points or 0.06% to 5,967.38. And the Nasdaq Composite declined 40.84, or 0.22 percent, to 19,419.88. ECB CUTS RATES As expected, the European Central Bank lowered their three key interest rate by 25 basis points. This decision was based on an updated economic outlook, now that the inflation rate is around the central banks' 2% target. But despite this, European stocks have retreated from their earlier gains and closed only marginally in the positive after ECB president Christine Lagarde seemed to float a possibility of a summer pause to its year-long easing cycles. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.17 points or 0.02% to 889.10. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.16% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 Index rose by 4.07 points or 0.19%. Emerging market stocks gained 9.86 points or 0.84% to 1,182.31. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed up by 0.82% to 622.95 while Japan's Nikkei dropped 192.96 or 0.51% to 37,554.49. Dollar reverses earlier gains after soft U.S. indicators and Lagarde’s hints of an ECB interest rate pause. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.02%, reaching 98.81. Meanwhile, the euro gained 0.14%, hitting $1.1433. The dollar gained 0.67% against the Japanese yen to reach 143.73. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds fluctuated in choppy trade following the unexpected rise in unemployment claims, the latest weak labor market data ahead of Friday's employment reports. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 3 basis points from 4.365% at late Wednesday. The 30-year bond rate fell by 0.2 basis points, from 4.888% to 4.8856% late on Wednesday. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve (Fed), rose by 5.1 basis points, to 3.928% from 3.877%, late Wednesday. The price of crude oil rose following the Trump/Xi phone call. This helped investors ignore the U.S. buildup in stockpiles and Saudi Arabia’s July price reductions for Asia. Brent crude settled at $65.34 a barrel, an increase of 0.74%. U.S. crude was up 0.83% at $63.37 a barrel. The gold price reversed a previous gain after Trump and Xi's call suggested a thawing in the trade relations between Washington, DC and Beijing. Spot gold dropped 0.65% to $3.353.64 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.72% to an ounce of $3,349.20.
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Chilean business magnate Ponce sells stakes in SQM lithium miner
In a Thursday statement, Chilean businessman Julio Ponce announced that he would be leaving several of his firms. The firms also announced a wider restructuring, which aims to consolidate units into fewer companies. These include companies that have significant stakes, for example in the Chilean lithium producer SQM. Ponce announced that he would pass on control of the company to his family. This included his daughter Francisca Ponce who will be advised by Eugenio Ponce. Ponce, the 79-year-old former son-in law of late Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, said: "I've decided to announce that i will no longer play a major role in this story." Separately, on Thursday his companies announced their plans to streamline their organization by combining into fewer firms in filings with the South American nation’s stock exchange. Pampa Group is the collective name for Ponce's vast corporate empire. It is a top shareholder in SQM, along with China's Tianqi. According to the country’s market regulator, both hold just under a fifth each of shares. Ponce stated, "I will bequeath control and direction in the professional and patrimonial realms of what comes to my family." (Reporting and writing by Fabian Cambero, Daina Beth Solon; editing by Kyry Madry).
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Even after the EU labeled it strategic, Serbian farmers still oppose Rio Tinto Lithium project
Zlatko Kokoanovic, a Serbian farmer in the Jadar region of Serbia, is determined not to allow Rio Tinto to develop a lithium project. The European Commission has identified it as a strategic project this week, as its goal is to reduce dependency on China's mineral resources. Lithium is an important component of batteries used in electric vehicles and mobile phones. If the mine in Jadar valley is built, it would meet 90% of Europe’s lithium requirements. Kokanovic, like many protesters and farmers who have tried to stop the development of this project over the past few years, is concerned about pollution on farmland, in a place where agriculture is the main source of income for most people. Kokanovic is a father to five children and one of the biggest milk producers in Gornje Needeljice. He's also a prominent activist in the area. He added: "I would like to warn them (Rio Tinto), not to try and develop the mine, or there will unrest." Rio Tinto did not announce a date for the start of the project. The mine is expected to produce around 58,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year. Rio Tinto, however, has committed to developing the mine in a clean manner. Chad Blewitt is Rio Tinto’s managing director of the Jadar Project. He said, "The project will meet the highest standards of transparency, environmental protection, and human rights." "The European Union, and the European Commission, never compromise their high standards. Blewitt told Wednesday that his company was revising its project costs. Rio Tinto’s lithium project is contested by green group for years. In 2022, it sparked a massive protest in Serbia, an EU candidate. Serbian environmentalists collected over 30,000 signatures on a petition in 2021 and 2022 to demand that the parliament pass legislation to stop lithium exploration. Rio Tinto was revoked of all exploration licenses by the government in 2022. The Constitutional Court reversed the decision and reinstated the licences last year. Officials from the government say that the mine will boost Serbian economy. It is not clear how protesters could stop a project which has both domestic and international support. Recent student protests, in which hundreds of thousands of students took to the streets in Serbia and collapsed the government, demonstrate the strength of the civil society of the Balkan nation. Kokanovic remains determined. "My message is to not even attempt (to dig up lithium in Jadar), except they want to topple this government quickly."
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US stocks rise on hope of progress in US China trade talks
Wall Street shook and crude prices jumped Thursday, as investors juggled the new trade talks between U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping with a series of disappointing economic data in advance of Friday's important jobs report. In early trading, the three major U.S. indexes were unable to find a direction and ended up modestly higher. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury rates fluctuated and the dollar was weaker. Holding talks According to the summaries provided by the U.S. government and the Chinese government, they spoke with Xi on Thursday to try to resolve the trade dispute between the two world's largest economies. They agreed to continue discussions. Matthew Keator is the managing partner of the Keator Group in Lenox Massachusetts, a wealth-management firm. "I think the market will respond. It's going up and down, as we go through these negotiations. The market gets a clearer picture of how it will look at the end." The latest economic data shows that initial jobless claims have reached their highest level since October. A 16.3% decline in imports, a result of Trump's unpredictable tariff policy, has also led to the narrowest U.S. Trade Gap since November 2023. The Labor Department's May employment report is expected to be released on Friday. However, weaker-than-expected data from the labor market, such as a 47% increase in Challenger layoffs year-over-year and a major surprise in ADP private payrolls have dampened expectations. Keator, however, believes that the Federal Reserve could implement more than one cut in interest rates before the end the year. Keator said that the Fed might be more inclined to cut interest rates more than once in this year, given the recent inflation data and the potential increase in jobless claims. This could be a positive sign for certain sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 9.64 points or 0.02% to 42,437.38, while the S&P 500 gained 6.32 points or 0.11% to 5,977.13; and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 55.96 points or 0.29% to 19,516.24. ECB CUTS RATES As expected, the European Central Bank lowered three of its key interest rates, each by 25 basis points. This decision was based on the updated economic outlook, now that the inflation rate is around the 2% central bank target. European shares have retreated from their earlier gains, even though ECB president Christine Lagarde suggested that the easing cycle could be paused for a few months during the summer. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 1.83 points or 0.21% to 890.76. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.1% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 Index rose by 2.28 points or 0.10%. Emerging market stocks gained 10.96 points or 0.93% to 1,183.41. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed up by 0.92% to 623.59 while Japan's Nikkei dropped 192.96 or 0.51% to 37,554.49. Dollar reverses earlier gains after soft U.S. economy indicators. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, and the euro) fell by 0.24%, while the euro rose by 0.43%, reaching $1.1466. The dollar gained 0.42% against the Japanese yen to reach 143.36. The U.S. Treasury yields sawsawed and fluctuated in the choppy market following an unexpected rise in unemployment claims. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 0.6 basis points from 4.365% at late Wednesday. The 30-year bond rate fell by 1.6 basis points, from 4.888% to 4.8725% late on Wednesday. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve), rose by 1.2 basis points, to 3.891% from 3.877% at late Wednesday. The price of crude oil soared after the Trump/Xi phone call. This helped investors ignore the U.S. buildup in stockpiles and Saudi Arabia’s July price reductions for Asia. U.S. crude climbed 1.48%, to $63.78 per barrel. Brent increased to $65.74 a barrel on the same day. Investors reacted to Friday's employment data by boosting gold prices against the dollar. Spot gold remained flat at $3,375.58 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.1% to $3.376.90 per ounce.
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Minister: Australia is an alternative to critical minerals that is "safe and reliable"
Don Farrell, Australia's trade minister, said that Australia is a reliable alternative for the supply of critical minerals essential to industry. This was in response to growing concerns over Beijing's dominance in this sector. China's decision to suspend the exports of rare earths, magnets and other products crucial for sectors such as aerospace and defence and automakers in April was widely viewed as Beijing using its dominance to leverage its trade war against the Trump administration. Australia is home to some of the world's largest deposits of critical minerals. Farrell said in an interview that he believes he can be a reliable and safe supplier to the global supply chain of critical minerals. He said that Australia did not just want to "dig and send" minerals, but also wanted to process them. This would require outside capital, such as from the European Union (EU), the United States, Japan South Korea, Singapore, and India. Last year, the EU and Australia signed an agreement to work together to develop materials that are critical along the entire supply chain. This includes extraction and refinement as well as processing of leftover waste. Farrell said that critical minerals may end up in the free trade agreement between Australia and the EU, which Australia and the EU are currently trying to revive following the collapse of talks in 2023. The main issue is agriculture. The Australian government sent its top trade officials to Brussels to discuss the next steps as both sides look to access alternative markets, as the Trump administration builds aggressive tariff barriers against its trading partners. Farrell, who met EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sfcovic in Paris on the fringes of an OECCD meeting, said: "I believe there is now an impetus from both sides to consider another crack in the agreement." Farrell met with U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer, at the OECD. He told him that Australia wants the Trump administration's 10% tariffs to be removed and the 50% tariffs for aluminium and steel. According to Greer’s office, the United States, who has had a 20-year free trade agreement, generated a trade surplus of $17,9 billion with Australia last year. (Reporting and editing by David Evans, Leigh Thomas)
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Mali hearings on Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto Complex suspended have been adjourned until June 12
A Malian judge announced on Thursday that a court had adjourned to June 12 the hearing to determine whether or not to place the Loulo-Gounkoto Gold Mining Complex, which has been suspended since January because of a dispute involving its owner Barrick Mining, and Mali's Government, under temporary administration. The government has requested an administrator to resolve the current standoff. It also signals its desire for the complex to be reopened. The grant of the request would be a significant escalation in a long-running dispute between the West African nation and the Canadian mining company, who suspended operations last January after the authorities seized their gold stock and blocked its exports. Barrick Mining (formerly Barrick Gold) has stated that operations will only resume once the Malian government lifts the November restrictions on gold exports. The Malian government, as a shareholder of the complex, asked the Bamako Commercial Court last month to appoint an interim administrator to run the mines. Barrick and the military government have been at odds over the implementation a new code of mining that increases taxes and gives government a larger share in gold mines since 2023. According to two sources close to the negotiations, the parties continue to negotiate outside of court. Barrick has also filed an international arbitration against Mali in the dispute. On April 22, gold prices reached a new record of $3,500.05 an ounce. (Reporting and writing by Portia CROWE; editing by Alexandra Hudson, Jan Harvey, and Jan Harvey.
Take Five: the big Trump tariff countdown
The deadline for President Donald Trump to impose tariffs is fast approaching, while the U.S. releases data on jobs and the markets gauge the new AI landscape before major tech companies report.
Bank of England is deciding on interest rates, and lenders across Europe are also publishing their results.
Kevin Buckland, Saqib Ahmad, Lewis Krauskopf, and Amanda Cooper, in London, provide a guide to global markets for the coming week.
1/T DAY
Everyone wants to know the severity of Trump's tariffs. From currency traders and bond investors to Fed officials and other foreign powers.
Trump's promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico until illegal migrants and fentanyl are stopped from crossing their border could be the most telling sign so far. Tariffs will be applied to a combined trillion dollar of U.S. bound shipments per year.
Canada has launched a crackdown on fentanyl to head off any possible action. Mexico, in December, made the largest fentanyl arrest in its history.
China is arguably a more interesting case. Anyone can guess whether the 10% tariffs that have been mooted will also be in place for Saturday. The White House confirmed that it is still seriously considering the possibility, despite Trump saying he did not want to use tariffs against China after a "friendly phone call" with Xi Jinping.
Should I stay or should I go?
Investors are assessing the prospect of further interest rate reductions and the potential impact that new Trump Administration policies may have on the labour market. The U.S. monthly jobs report is due to be released on February 7.
The blowout December jobs report led to doubts over whether the Fed could ease its monetary policy any further. This sent Treasury yields soaring. Inflation data that were encouraging did calm the market, but a strong January jobs report may change everything.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that he will not cut rates until inflation and employment data indicate it is appropriate.
Trump's agenda on the labour market is a big unknown. It includes a crackdown on immigration and plans to reduce the federal workforce. The White House offers 2 million federal workers financial incentives to leave.
3 TECH-TONIC SHIFTs
Investors have speculated for years about what could slow down the AI investment steamroller. Now, they have a fresh perspective: the emergence of China's AI sensation DeepSeek. It has rewritten assumptions about computing power and the amount of money needed to develop state-of-the art models.
This change shattered Nvidia stock's value, causing it to plummet. DeepSeek also challenges the dominance of U.S. tech, and raises questions about the competitive advantage of the seven top tech stocks, known as the Magnificent Seven.
Investors will be able to decide whether the recent AI market volatility represents a warning for future challenges, or an opportunity to invest in this rapidly expanding sector.
4/IN FOR A SLEEZE
The pace of European bank earnings will pick up in the coming week, as BNP Paribas and Societe Generale report their fourth-quarter results, followed by UBS and Santander from Spain and Switzerland.
The majority of lenders will have wrung out enough extra cash from higher interest rates, helped by soaring revenues in investment banking. This will boost their profits to keep the two-year rally going. Investors are looking for signs that the recent surge in deal-making is not over.
Still, there are challenges. The falling interest rates put pressure on the banks' earnings on loans and their deposits. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic growth is accelerating.
Deutsche Bank, a German bank, has caused concern after it reported a steep drop in profit and abandoned a major goal regarding costs. This sent its shares down.
5/DECISION TIMES
On Thursday, the Bank of England will meet to set interest rate. The markets haven't fully priced in a quarter point cut but economists appear to believe that this is likely.
UK data are weakening. Multiple measures of employment indicate cracks in the labour markets, and unexpectedly consumer spending fell during the crucial holiday shopping season. The BoE predicts that growth will remain flat in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Many banks believe that the British economy will struggle to grow by even 1% in this year, despite plans from Finance Minister Rachel Reeves to revive growth.
The bond market turmoil that occurred earlier this month pushed government borrowing costs for 10-year bonds to their highest level since 2008. Gilt yields are down, but still uncomfortably high at 4.5%. This is more than any other G10 country except New Zealand.
(source: Reuters)