Latest News

Reporting shows that oil-price wagers before the Iran war news totaled $7 billion.

According to traders, analysts and exchange data, there were a series of well-timed bets made on the falling oil price in March and April, totaling up to $7 billion. These bets were spread over multiple exchanges, types of fuel, and derivatives, just before Donald Trump's major announcements about Iran policy.

The amount exceeds the $2.6 billion in?bets that were previously reported, and has already led to the U.S. Administration?warning staff not to use nonpublic information as a means of financial gain. A?person with knowledge of the matter said in April that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating. However, the CFTC still hasn't confirmed the investigation.

They could not determine who made the bets or if they originated in America or elsewhere. These included short positions or bets on falling prices for derivatives such as ICE and CME crude oil, diesel, and gasoline futures.

Bets were placed on the Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange, two major exchanges which host benchmark futures trading for global oil and fuels. Both exchanges declined comment. A source with knowledge of the situation said that the CME is looking into the trades.

Legal experts and legislators have called for the regulators to investigate if these well-timed transactions were based on leaks or inside information.

The first unusual trades were noticed by traders on 23?March. The trades were made just minutes before Trump announced that he would delay his threatened attack on Iranian power infrastructure. This triggered a drop in oil prices.

On April 7, Trump announced a truce with Iran, which caused a drop of up to 15% in benchmark ICE Brent Futures. The same pattern repeated on April 17 when Iranian officials and Trump discussed reopening Strait of Hormuz. And again on the 21st of April when Trump extended his ceasefire.

Other media reported these trades in the front-month contracts of the two benchmark global crudes Brent and West Texas Intermediate. Initial calculations put the value of these bets at $2.6 billion on four days between March and April.

The U.S. Justice Department, as well as the CFTC, did not respond immediately to requests for comments. White House spokesperson: "All federal employees are subject to government ethical guidelines that prohibit using non-public information in order to gain financial benefit."

A further analysis of the trading data across exchanges showed that traders placed similar bets exactly at the same times and dates?for European Diesel and U.S. Gasoline Futures, as well as for longer-dated contracts for Brent and WTI. Calculations show the total was around $7 billion.

Short selling or a sell bet is when the trader borrows a derivative from the counterparty and sells it, then buys it cheaper later on when the price drops, keeping any remaining profit.

The oil price dropped by more than 10% on March 23, April 7, 17, and 21. Calculations show that, depending on when the bets were made, a $7 billion short seller could have made millions in profit.

Adi Imsirovic from the Center for Strategic and International Studies and an oil trader veteran said that these trades looked "well-informed" because they were made before major announcements. He added that U.S. authorities such as the CFTC can access exchange data in order to track who made the trades, and to investigate if they choose to.

ABC reported on Thursday that the U.S. The Department of Justice is investigating oil transactions worth $2.6 billion that are related to the Iran War. The DOJ did not respond to a request for comment.

In March, the CFTC's Enforcement Director said that his agency was "watching" speculation about insider trading on CFTC-regulated market.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Let's stick to the facts. The volume was unusual. The volumes were unusually high. They were in advance of important announcements", said Jorge?Montepeque, from Onyx Capital Group. He helped design the modern oil price setting system at Platts pricing agency back in the 90s.

Brent crude, low-sulphur gasoline, and West Texas Intermediate crude are traded on the Intercontinental Exchange. The New York Mercantile Exchange is owned by CME Group.

Trump announced at 1105 GMT on March 23 that he would delay the threatened attack against Iranian power infrastructure. LSEG data indicates that traders bet on 20,000 Brent and WTI Futures between 1049 and1050 GMT. The sales were spread over the first, second, and third month contracts. They totaled $1.35 billion. In addition, $122 million was spent on ICE Gasoil - Diesel - Futures, and $81 million was spent on U.S. gas futures.

Robert Frenchman, a New York lawyer who previously worked in white-collar crimes and insider trading, said that "those quantities will not escape scrutiny."

Trump's ceasefire announcement on March 23 triggered a drop in crude futures as high as 15%. This was one of the biggest intraday drops ever recorded. This announcement sent futures for gasoline and gasoil down by around 12%.

Between 1944 and 1945 GMT on April 7, sell orders for oil and gasoline worth $2,12 billion were placed. This was well after the markets settled and at a time of low volumes. Trump announced minutes later a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran.

Nearly $2 billion worth of Brent, WTI and gasoil futures, as well as gasoline, were sold on April 17 at 1224-1225 GMT. This was just minutes before Iranian Foreign Ministry Abbas Araqchi announced that Hormuz will reopen. Trump and U.S. officials then posted multiple posts to social media. On April 21, about $830 million in Brent and WTI futures contracts were sold only 15 minutes before Trump extended his ceasefire. (Alun John, Alex Lawler, Robert Harvey and Michelle Price contributed additional reporting from London and Washington. Editing was done by Simon Webb and David Gregorio.

(source: Reuters)