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Venezuela's defaulted government bonds soar after US capture Maduro
Venezuela's defaulted government bonds surged Monday after the surprise capture of President Nicolas Maduro by?U.S. Capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Maduro was detained and removed to the U.S. after a military "raid" in Caracas on Saturday. This has fueled expectations that this will be one of largest and most complex sovereign debt restructurings ever. Analysts predict that the bond prices issued by Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state oil company of Venezuela, will rise up to 8 cents per dollar or 20% in early European trading. JPMorgan analysts wrote in a client note that Venezuela and PDVSA bonds had roughly doubled their price over the course of 2025. However, they still expect a strong rebound -- up to 10 points -- when Monday's trading session begins. Venezuela's sovereign debts, which defaulted in 2017, had the best performance in the world in 2018. Their price nearly doubled as U.S. president Donald Trump increased military pressure against Maduro. Data from Tradeweb showed that Monday's move pushed Venezuela's bond 2031 to almost 40 cents per dollar. Most of the other bonds in the country were up between 35 and 38 cents, and PDVSA's debt was over 6 cents more at almost 30 cents. Venezuela's government and state oil company PDVSA have defaulted on bonds that had a face-value of $60 billion. Analysts estimate that the total external debt, which includes other PDVSA obligations as well as bilateral loans, arbitration awards and other PDVSA obligations is between $150 billion and $170 billion depending on how interest accrued and court judgements are counted. Reporting by Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker and Alison Williams.
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European stocks rise as defense shares lead after Venezuela shock
European stocks rose on Monday as investors bought up defense stocks following the U.S. military strikes against Venezuela. This sparked new 'geopolitical' concerns. The STOXX 600 pan-European index was 0.3% higher by 0810 GMT. As investors return from their New Year holidays, trading volumes should normalize. Defense?index grew by 2.7%, reaching its highest level in two months. The technology and basic resources also rose by 2.1% and 2% respectively. Investors continue to monitor the impact of the 'dramatic capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas?Maduro over the weekend by U.S. forces. Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he would temporarily place Venezuela under American control. Investors also focus on central banks and watch incoming data for clues as to how quickly rates could be cut. Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Anglo American all saw their profits rise on the back of higher copper costs. ASML shares, the world's largest?supplier? of computer chip-making equipment?, increased?3.9%. Analysts at brokerage Bernstein upgraded ASML's stock from "market perform" to "outperform", and raised the price target to 1,300 euros, from 800 euros. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahaniwala in Bengaluru, with Medha Singh from Bengaluru)
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Local media reports that Indonesian mines can produce 25% of the proposed output for 2026 in Q1, while applications are being assessed.
According to a letter from the Indonesian mining ministry, miners can produce 25 percent of the output they plan for '2026 in the first three months while the government processes the annual production quotas, according to a report by a local media outlet, Bisnis.com, on Monday. To determine?how much production they can produce each year, all miners in Indonesia, which is rich in minerals, are required to submit a RKAB (annual production plan) to the government. Indonesia has reduced the validity of RKABs to one year, starting in 2026. The government has also ordered that miners reapply for the quotas issued for 2026 and 207. According to regulations published by the ministerial in October, during the approval process for the new quota, the miners can refer to the previously approved quota of 2026 until the end March 2026 when deciding how much they will produce. Nickel miner Vale Indonesia announced on Friday that they were suspending their mining activities because the RKAB was not yet approved. Yuliot Tanjung, deputy mining minister, said that approvals are "currently being consolidated" and the nickel output quota will be adjusted to match demand from domestic smelters. Mining Minister?Bahlil?Lahadalia said that the government would cut mining output quotas in order to boost prices. This includes coal prices which have been stagnant. (Reporting and editing by Fransiska Nanangoy, Bernadette Cristina Munthe)
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China's Iron Ore Starts New Year Higher on Strong Demand and Tight Supplies
China's Iron Ore Futures rose in the first trading session of the New Year on Monday. Strong?demand and supply constraints supported the rise. The May contract for iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 7.5 Yuan or 0.95% to 797 Yuan ($114.16). After the New Year's?holiday, Chinese markets resumed their trading. The benchmark iron ore contract for February on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.29% at $105.65 per ton by 0704 GMT. Steelmakers are restocking iron ore ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which is in February. Tight domestic supplies also support prices. According to a report from the?Shanghai Metals Market, several mines have limited production due to environmental measures. Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that stocks of five major carbon products held by Chinese?mills dropped 1.1% on a weekly basis to 3.81 millions tonnes between December 26 and 31. The DCE also saw a decline in other steelmaking ingredients, including coke and?coking?coal. The SHFE steel benchmarks were mixed. Rebar fell by 0.74%; hot-rolled coils dropped by 0.79%, and stainless steel was down 0.23%. Wire rod, meanwhile, gained 4.93%.
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Chinese, South Korean companies sign nine cooperation agreements
Chinese and South Korean firms signed nine agreements of cooperation,?authorities announced on Monday. This was during a visit to Beijing by South Korean 'President Xi Jinping with Chinese President Lee Jae Myung, their second encounter in only two months. Lee's first visit to China is his first since taking office in June. It comes at a time of escalating global tensions following the North Korean launch of ballistic missiles, and the U.S. strike on Venezuela. Analysts say that the unusually short time between Xi's and Lee's meeting shows 'China's keen desire to boost economic collaboration and tourism, as its relationship with Japan has sunk 'to its lowest point for years'. The South Korean Trade Ministry announced nine agreements on Monday, stating that?Alibaba International and South Korean retailer Shinsegae are among the companies who signed deals. Lee arrived in South Korea for his four-day visit on Sunday. He was accompanied by a delegation of over 200 business leaders, including Samsung Electronics Chairman 'Jay Y. Lee', SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and Hyundai Motor Group Executive Chairman Euisun Chung. Lee wants to promote peace on Korean Peninsula. However, his visit to Beijing coincides with the North Korean test firing hypersonic missiles, and Kim Jong Un's citing of Pyongyang needing to maintain a strong nuclear deterrent. Lee stated that South Korea and China should expand their economic cooperation on artificial intelligence and also in consumer products such as beauty, household goods, food, and cultural content like movies, music and games. Kang Hoon -sik, South Korean Chief of Staff to the President, said that Beijing is unlikely to lift their unofficial ban against Korean culture any time soon. China's state-run broadcaster CCTV reported that Lee's visit will include a discussion on supply chain investments, digital economies, and cultural exchanges. As China and Japan negotiate a diplomatic spat, South Korea's and Beijing’s relations have warmed. Beijing was "incensed" when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi suggested, in November, that Tokyo could take military actions if Beijing attacked Taiwan. Taiwan rejects China's claim that the island is itss.
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Gold prices surge as demand for safe-havens increases due to the US arrest of Venezuela's president
Gold and other precious metals prices rose on Monday, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States over the weekend, which exacerbated geopolitical tensions. Gold spot rose by 2.2% at 0742 GMT to $4,424.17 an ounce. This is a new weekly high. U.S. Gold Futures for Delivery in February rose 2.4% to $4434.20. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that kidnapping a foreign leader of state leads to a high degree of uncertainty. Gold and silver are seen as a good hedge against this. The U.S. captured Maduro on?Saturday in an attack that Washington's most controversial Latin American intervention since the?invasion of Panama 37 year ago. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who has been appointed interim leader, said that Maduro "remains" president. The 'bullion's' 64% gain last year was the biggest since 1979. This is due to geopolitical tensions combined with central bank purchases, interest rate reductions and inflows into ETFs. The record high was $4,549.71, which occurred on December 26, 2025. Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said on Saturday further rate reductions could be a long way off following an active campaign of ease last year. Investors still expect at least two Fed rate reductions this year. Waterer said that investors will be looking at the non-farm payroll figures, due on Friday, to get more clues about potential Fed rate cuts. Non-yielding investments tend to perform well when interest rates are low and there is uncertainty in the geopolitical or economic arena. After hitting an all time high of $83.62 per ounce on December 29, spot silver rose 3.9% to $75.50. The metal finished the year with a record 147% increase. Silver's price soared?to new highs last year due to its designation as an important U.S. Mineral and supply constraints due to?increased industrial and investment demands. After reaching a record high of $2.478.50 per ounce on Monday, spot platinum increased 3.9% to reach $2,226.24 an ounce. Early Asia hours saw it rise more than 5% to a new high. Palladium climbed 1.6% to $1,664.40 per ounce.
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India's palm oil imports in December fell to an 8-month low due to weak demand
Five dealers report that India's palm oils imports dropped to an 8-month low in the month of December. This was due to a weaker winter season and refiners increasing their purchases of competing oils like soyoil or sunflower oil. Reduced palm oil imports by?India, which is the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oil, could increase inventories in top producing countries Indonesia and Malaysia. This would weigh on benchmark Malaysian Palm Oil Futures while supporting U.S. Soyoil Futures. According to dealers, palm oil imports dropped 20% in December, to 507,000 tons, the lowest level since April 2025. Dealer estimates show that soyoil exports jumped 37%, to 508,000 tonnes, while sunflower oil imports more-than-doubled, to 350,000 tons. Estimates show that India's total edible oil imports rose by 19% in December compared to the previous month, reaching a new three-month record of 1,37 million?tons. This was due to an increase in soyoil imports and sunflower oil. They said that the import numbers exclude duty-free shipments?that arrived via land border from Nepal. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said that India imported approximately 632,000 tonnes of palm oil per month in the marketing year ending October 2025. It plans to publish its December data by mid-January. The demand for palm oil has remained low due to the winter season and increased availability of domestic edible oil such as cottonseed, groundnut, and soya oil. India's palm?imports are usually moderated during winter, when the tropical oil becomes solidified at lower temperatures. This limits its use in the northern parts of the country. India imports a lot of palm oil, mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also imports sunflower oil and soyoil from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. Sandeep Bajoria is the chief executive officer of Sunvin Group. A vegetable oil brokerage firm and consultancy.
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Trump's Venezuela gamble tests investors' appetite for geopolitical risks
Investors warn that the geopolitical risk may be underestimated by markets after Donald Trump threatened to take further action in America. After President Trump announced that the U.S. will take over the oil-producing nation, investors held their nerve, despite oil prices falling modestly. Gold prices rose, however, due to safe-haven flows. Trump's threats towards Colombia and Mexico, while Washington hasn't made such an aggressive intervention in Latin America since 1989 when it invaded Panama, highlighted the aggressive change in U.S. policies and brought geopolitical risks to the forefront for financial markets in the beginning of the year. Vishnu Varathan is the head of Asia Ex-Japan macro research at Mizuho Securities, Singapore. The question is: Is the stability of LatAm as a whole at risk? It's then a completely different proposition, isn't? The flow-through effect and all could even be greater." Analysts and investors stated that the calm market response to Maduro’s capture was because Venezuela's oil output relative to global production is small, and it would take many years of investment to catch up. The impact of the military action on the sentiment will be far-reaching, but it could also unlock Venezuela's vast reserves of oil and boost risk assets in the long-term. Trump said that American oil companies were ready to take on the difficult task of entering Venezuela to invest in order to restore production. Tai Hui is the chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management for Asia-Pacific. He said that this event should have broader geopolitical ramifications. However, he believes that financial markets do not price such risks very accurately. First test of the Markets in 2026 The U.S. stock market and the global markets have made a rapid start to 2019 after finishing 2025 at record highs. They had notched double-digit increases in a turbulent year marked by tariff wars and central bank policy, as well as simmering geopolitical conflicts. As a result of Trump's willingness to use U.S. force in support of his policy agenda, the immediate impact will be felt in the?defence sector. Analysts say that the increased uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy will also weigh on the dollar's safe-haven status. The U.S. Dollar firmed up a little on Monday, but it is coming off of its worst year in 2017. It will drop?over 9 percent against major currencies by 2025. Investors are also concerned about the implications of Trump's actions on Venezuela for China's stance towards Taiwan, and if Washington will be more aggressive in its efforts to change regimes in Iran. Li Fang-kuo is the chairman of Taiwan's Uni-President Stock Investment Advisory Unit. He said that investors do not have to worry about China?attacking Taiwan. "Yes, China conducted military exercises around Taiwan. But we haven't seen anything like the months-long escalation that we witnessed from the U.S. against Venezuela." Some analysts claim that investors are becoming accustomed to Trump's foreign policy and military strategies. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. He said that the U.S. actions in Venezuela are more of a geopolitical shock than an oil scare at this time. Investors tend to return to rates, earnings and positioning unless the action threatens the supply chain. "We are in a regime that is dominated by geopolitics, and this is not surprising." (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee in Singapore, Rae Wee in Taipei and Gregor Stuart Hunter; Additional reporting from Faith Hung)
India's Modi presents a tariff as a 'gift' at the Trump negotiations
The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is bringing gifts to Donald Trump's meeting on Thursday. He hopes that concessions made on tariffs and new business deals, as well as the prospect of working with China, will win Trump's approval.
Trump has used the threat of tariffs to force new deals in trade, investments, or help with law enforcement.
India is not an exception. Although Trump and Modi had a good relationship in his first term as president, he called India "a very big abuser" of trade. His levies against steel and aluminum were particularly harsh on India.
Modi, who will meet with President Obama at the White House on Thursday, has prepared a list of promises, including an increase in purchases of liquefied gas, combat vehicles and jet engines, according to Indian officials who declined to give their names.
Indian officials also consider possible deals for U.S. agricultural exports to India, as well as investments in nuclear energy. They are also considering tariff reductions in at least 12 sectors, such electronic, medical, surgical, and chemical equipment.
According to a person who is familiar with the team's thinking, these are the areas where Trump's team feels India can improve.
One of the sources declined to name themselves as they were preparing a private meeting.
U.S. officials and Indian officials are also moving ahead with bilateral trade talks, with an official from the Trump administration stating that they hope to have a contract in place by this year.
A senior official in the Trump administration said, "We see a stronger partnership for defense. This includes procurement and moving things forward like defense exercises."
The president said that we could literally power the Indian economic system with U.S. sales of energy. He also believes these two things will help reduce the trade deficit.
After his November indictment for an alleged bribery plot by the U.S. Justice Department, the case of billionaire Gautam Adani may be brought up in the discussions. Adani is from Modi’s western state, Gujarat. His Adani Group manages several major infrastructure projects around the world.
Many critics and opponents claim that Adani's meteoric rise was due in part to his close relationship with and treatment by administrations led by Modi's BJP, as well as its allies. Both have denied any wrongdoing.
A second thorny matter will also be in the background. It is the alleged Indian plot to assassinate an American Sikh activist during the tenure of Trump's former, Joe Biden. The U.S. official briefing reporters said that Trump places the safety of all Americans as a priority.
Richard Rossow, director of the India Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that the tariff issue would be the main focus this time.
He said, "It will be a boxing contest." "I believe India is willing take some hits, but that's not the limit."
The U.S. trade deficit with India is $45.6 billion. According to World Trade Organization statistics, the U.S. average trade-weighted tariff rate is about 2.2% compared to India's 12.0%.
Trump's administration has promised reciprocal tariffs against every country that imposes duties on U.S. imported goods, a move which will increase fears of an expanding global trade war.
What Trump wants is more help from India in preventing unauthorized immigration. India is a major source for immigrants to the United States. Many are in the tech sector on work visas, while others are in the U.S. without permission.
Musk was seen heading to Blair House, the hotel where Modi stays, just before the meeting was scheduled. Musk is a close ally of Trump and the Starlink company's attempt to enter South Asia could be discussed.
Modi and Tulsi Gabriel, Trump's newly appointed director of national Intelligence, held a meeting bilaterally on Wednesday. They discussed ways to enhance intelligence cooperation in areas such as counter-terrorism and cybersecurity.
India could be a key part of Trump's strategy in thwarting China, which is seen by many as the number one rival for the United States. India is concerned about China's military buildup, and it competes with China for the same markets. Modi is also concerned that Trump may cut a deal that excludes India from the agreement with China, according to Mukesh Agi, president of U.S. India Strategic Partnership Forum.
"Even though most of the discussion will be about the bilateral relationship, trade, immigration, and defense purchases, there will still be a China thread running through the meeting," said Lisa Curtis. A former White House official who focused on India during the first Trump Administration, she is now with the Center for a New American Security, a think tank.
India still tries to avoid a direct confrontation with Beijing, and maintains an "ambiguous" foreign policy to avoid taking sides in major conflicts.
This approach also means that India has maintained its ties to Moscow while it is fighting its war against Ukraine. India, for example, has continued to be a major energy consumer in Russia, whereas the West has been working to reduce its own consumption ever since the war began.
Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president on Wednesday about launching negotiations to end war in Ukraine.
The official from the Trump administration said, "I think that President Trump will welcome a discussion with respected world leaders including Prime Minister Modi about how we can move constructively towards peace in Europe." Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt, David Brunnstrom, Manoj Kumra, Aditya Kahlra, Aditi Shah in New Delhi and Shivam Patel, in Bengaluru. Editing by Don Durfee Alistair Bell Hugh Lawson.
(source: Reuters)