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IEA states new US sanctions could considerably interrupt Russian supply

The most recent round of U.S. sanctions versus Russian oil revealed last Friday might significantly interfere with the country's oil supply chains, the International Energy Agency stated in a monthly report on Wednesday.

The IEA's oil market outlook, which recommends industrialised countries, still recommends that the international market will be in surplus this year due to provide growth surpassing suppressed growth in demand.

New U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia cover entities that dealt with over a 3rd of Russian and Iranian unrefined exports in 2024, the IEA stated.

We preserve our supply forecasts for both countries till the full impact of sanctions becomes more evident, however the brand-new measures could lead to a tightening up of crude and product balances, it stated.

Washington's most current sanctions bundle listed over 160 tankers, which walked around 22% of Russian seaborne oil exports in 2024 according to the IEA. Previous vessel designations had been highly efficient, lowering the activity of designated tankers by 90%, the company stated.

The IEA stated that tighter sanctions, along with a cold weather condition breeze in the northern hemisphere, had propelled crude rates above $80 a barrel in early January.

Nevertheless, the IEA said cost gains might be tempered by strong non-OPEC+ supply development, the OPEC+ union wanting to unwind cuts, and the ability to make use of stocks quickly if needed.

The IEA now expects international oil supply development to reach 1.8 million barrels each day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ production representing the bulk at 1.5 million bpd.

That is faster than its projection for oil demand development this year of 1.05 million bpd, after a slight downward modification from 1.1 million bpd in the previous month's report.

Brent futures edged lower on Wednesday, trading at $79.71 a barrel at 0927 GMT, down 21 cents from previous close.

(source: Reuters)