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Sources say that OPEC+ will be subject to an annual audit of their oil capacity under the new plan.

OPEC+ said that members of the group will be assessed annually for their oil production capacities starting in 2020. This assessment is to be used by 2027. The goal is to align output quotas with each country's actual capacity. The agreement was reached on Sunday, which is a significant step forward in resolving a thorny problem for OPEC+ that has plagued the group for many years. It will also boost its credibility with investors and other oil market participants.

Some members, such as the United Arab Emirates, have increased their production capacity and want to increase their targets. Others such as African members are experiencing declines.

Others find it difficult, both politically and economically, to accept a production target or theoretical capacity that is lower. Angola left the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 2024 due to a disagreement over its production quotas.

APPOINTMENT OF CONSULTANTS Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated on Monday that the meeting held on Sunday was the most successful day of his career. The output capacity mechanism will help stabilize the markets and reward those investors who invest in production.

Assessments will begin in 2026 and be used to establish baselines for outputs in 2027, on which quotas will be set.

Three OPEC+ sources and industry sources have confirmed that OPEC+ – which is a grouping of OPEC, Russia and its allies – plans to appoint U.S. Petroleum Consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton for the purpose of estimating oil prices for 19 out 22 OPEC+ member countries.

The company did not respond when contacted for comment.

DeGolyer, a Dallas-based company, was among the companies who audited Saudi Aramco’s oil reserves in advance of its 2019 initial publicly offered.

Sources said that DeGolyer refused to assess the capacities of Russia, Iran, or Venezuela. Sources said that these OPEC+ producers were under U.S. sanction and did not want a U.S. company to carry out the work. The sanctions may have also made it difficult for the U.S. firm to perform this work.

Sources said that a firm from India will be appointed to assess the capacity of Russia and Venezuela in the next few weeks, while Iran has chosen to have its production figures used to estimate its capacity.

One of the OPEC+ members declined to identify themselves because they weren't authorised to publicly speak about the issue.

GROWING GAP IN QUOTAS VS ACTUAL OUTPUT OPEC+’s production increases in 2025, after several years of cutting output, have revealed a growing difference between the targets of many members and their actual output.

Data from S&P Commodity Insights (Platts), which is a source of data for OPEC+, shows that in October, 12 out of 18 members who had quotas pumping were below their targets. Platts, one of OPEC+'s sources for monitoring its output, is used by the group.

Russia is the country that has fallen most behind target, with a deficit of 101,000 barrels per day. Kazakhstan is the country with the highest production, at 144,000 barrels per day.

OPEC+ has a limited spare production capacity – idle output that could come online quickly – after years of low investments, according to OPEC+ and industry executives. It takes time for producers and drillers to increase drilling and output.

Since OPEC+ has not set production targets, it is hard to know what the maximum capacity is.

The use of consultants to conduct the assessment is in line with OPEC’s long-standing practice, which involves using secondary sources like analysts and industry media such as Platts for assessing its members’ actual production.

It is a result of historical disputes about how much oil OPEC member countries claimed to produce. The objective is to provide an impartial assessment.

A source stated that after the 2026 audit of the baseline outputs for 2027, the countries would prepare the data for the assessment for 2028 during January and February 2027. The update process will begin in March 2027. Source: The same steps would be repeated in future years. (Reporting and editing by Simon Webb, Emelia Sithole Matarise, Emelia Sithole, Alex Lawler)

(source: Reuters)