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Turkey extends Russia gas contracts for an additional year in order to attract U.S. investment
Turkey has finalised an extension of one year to its gas import contracts that expire with Russia, totalling 22 bcm. It is also considering investing in U.S. production, according to the energy minister. Both import contracts with Gazprom expire by the end of the year. Turkey's share of Russian gas has steadily decreased, and is now below 40%. Turkey, Russia's final major gas market in Europe has signed deals to buy long-duration LNG, a large part of which is from the U.S. This takes advantage of the expected global abundance of LNG over the next couple of years. Bayraktar, the Energy Minister, said that "BOTAS has finalised the contract with Russia" in an embargoed press conference on Thursday. "They will be supplied by Gazprom in the coming year." "We are more focused on the short-term... say one year," he said to journalists on Wednesday in an embargoed comment. IRAN AND U.S. ENERGY TALKS Bayraktar added that Turkey was also in talks with Iran to extend a 10 billion cubic meter gas contract, which expires next July. Part of the talks are about increasing the volume Turkmen gas Turkey imports through Iran. He said that "we'd like the increase the capacity Turkmen gas through the swap agreement", adding that Turkey signed this year a one-year 1.3 bcm deal with Turkmenistan, sourcing the gas from Iran. Imports this year have been around 0.5 billion cubic meters. NATO member Turkey's ambitions are to become a hub for gas trading. It has begun diversifying its pipeline supply sources. Bayraktar stated that the company plans to invest in U.S. production facilities for gas to secure its commitment to buy up to 1,500 cargoes of LNG from the U.S. within the next 15-year period. Bayraktar stated that "to hedge our position and to create the entire value chain, it is possible we will invest upstream on the U.S. Market". He said that the state company TPAO is in talks with U.S. oil and gas majors such as Exxon, Chevron, and others. A deal could be reached next month. This year, the U.S. ranked fourth in Turkey as a gas supplier with 5.5 billion cubic meters and a share of 14%.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Day off for Dollar Debasement Trade
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The greenback has been given a reprieve by monetary authorities of Asia's largest economies, who are concerned about the weakness of the U.S. dollar. It hit a low for five weeks this week. Silver has cooled off after hitting a record high price of $58.98 on Wednesday. The U.S. Dollar Index also ended a nine-day loss streak. The Chinese yuan has retreated from its highest levels in over a year against the dollar after the central banks set an official midpoint that was weaker than expected for the sixth straight session. This is a sign of caution about the rapid appreciation of the renminbi. The yields of 30-year Japanese government bond yields have also fallen from their record highs, after Japan's chief Cabinet Secretary said that the government closely monitors market movements. Bond yields on longer-dated bonds had reached new peaks in anticipation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan expected later this month. BOJ Governor Kazuo ueda, who was slapping the BOJ for the jawboning, said that there is uncertainty about the direction of the central bank's interest rate hike due to the difficulty in estimating the neutral rate. The auction of 30-year JGBs attracted the most demand in over six years, as record yields attracted buyers. This added to the relief in Tokyo about investor appetite for government debt. The Indian rupee has also fallen to a new record low against the dollar, surpassing the 90-dollar mark. This will put pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to lower interest rates when they meet this Friday. Stocks have been tepid outside Japan where Nikkei 225 has surged 1.8%. Fanuc Corp. is leading the way with a 12.4% increase. Shares of the industrial robot manufacturer have soared since their announcement earlier this week about a partnership with Nvidia. Early European trades saw pan-regional futures up 0.6%. German DAX Futures rose by 0.5%. FTSE Futures gained 0.3%. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Economic Data Euro Zone: HCOB Construction Sales and PMI for October, November Germany: HCOB Construction Purchasing Managers' Index for November France: HCOB Construction Purchasing Managers' Index for November Italy: HCOB Construction Purchasing Managers' Index for November U.K.: S&P Global Construction Purchasing Managers' Index for November Debt auctions: France: Government debt for 9 years, 15 years and 30 Years U.K.: 14-year government debt
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Gold falls as investors become cautious ahead of Fed Meeting, PCE data is in focus
Gold prices fell on Thursday, as investors took profits and awaited the Federal Reserve's meeting next week. They also waited for upcoming data to provide more clarity on interest rate policy. As of 0446 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.2%, at $4,196.96 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were down 0.2%, at $4225.90 an ounce. Soni Kumari is a commodity strategist with ANZ. She said: "The market has priced in a Fed cut of 25 basis points. What is needed now is a new trigger to push (gold) higher." Kumari said that a decline to $4,000 could attract new buyers due to the strong fundamentals of precious metals. The ADP Employment Report showed that the U.S. private sector payrolls fell by 32,000 during November, which is the largest drop in over two-and-a-half years. However, the low number of layoffs suggests the decline may not be a true reflection of the healthiness or the labor market. According to CME's FedWatch, the markets now give an 89% chance that a rate reduction will occur next week. Major brokerages are also expecting easing during the December 9-10 meetings. Gold is a non-yielding asset that tends to be favored by lower interest rates. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the September Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), will be released this Friday. Silver fell 0.4%, to $58.26, after reaching a record-high of $58.98. Silver prices have risen by 101% this year, mainly due to the concerns over market liquidity following outflows from U.S. stocks. It has also been included on the U.S. Critical Minerals list. Ajay Kedia of Mumbai-based Kedia Commodities said that since mid-November, Shanghai's silver inventories had fallen to a low level of 531 tons. This is the lowest level since 2015, as China's exports have increased significantly. Palladium fell 1.3% to 1,441.75, while platinum dropped 0.9% to $1656.15. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru, Sherin Elizabeth varghese from Bengaluru)
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Sumatra flooding leaves 800 dead, Indonesia vows action against any violations of mining permits
Indonesia will revoke mine permits if it is found that companies have violated the rules in flood-ravaged Sumatra, said the Energy Minister as questions about deforestation's role in the disaster intensified. According to data from the government, cyclone-induced flooding and landslides in West Sumatra have killed 800 people and left 564 others missing. The cyclones have also caused the deaths of almost 200 people across Malaysia and Thailand. They followed months with deadly weather conditions in Southeast Asia including deadly typhoons that hit Vietnam and the Philippines. Landslides in Indonesia have blocked roads and cut off power, making it difficult for rescuers to reach isolated villages. Hanif Faisol Nurofiq, the Environment Minister, said on Instagram Thursday that the disasters were caused by the changing climate, which intensified bad weather and environmental damage. He cited the shrinking forest coverage across the three provinces most affected. Green groups claimed that deforestation caused by mining and illegal logging was a major factor in the disasters. Landslides and mud pools were left where homes once stood. Social media users are outraged by images of logs washed up on Sumatra's shores after the floods. Energy Minister Bahlil lahadalia said to evacuated residents of West Sumatra that he will look into revoking mining licenses for companies who violate rules. On Wednesday, he told evacuated residents in West Sumatra that if he found violations in the mining permits of companies, he would consider revoking them. JATAM, an environmental group, said that legal permits for converting forests into extraction zones covered approximately 54,000 hectares (130,000 acres), with the majority being used for mining. PT Agincourt Resources operates the Martabe Gold Mine in the Batang Toru Ecosystem. In a recent statement, it stated that attempting to link the flooding with the mine operations would be "premature and inaccurate". David Gaveau is the founder of Nusantara Atlas, a deforestation monitoring organization. Between 2001 and 2024 Sumatra lost 11 million acres (4.4 million hectares) of forest. This area is larger than Switzerland. (Reporting from Stanley Widianto).
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Iron ore prices fall for the second day in a row as rising supplies dampen sentiment
The iron ore futures price fell for the second session in a row on Thursday as global supply increased. As of 0327 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.88% lower. It was priced at 792.5 Yuan ($112,10) per metric ton. The benchmark January Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange dropped 0.19%, to $104 per ton. Analysts from ANZ said that the first commercial shipment of iron ore from the Simandou Mine in Guinea will be heading to China. This marks a change in global supply. India's imports of iron ore hit a record high in this year. They more than doubled to 10 million tons during the first ten months of 2025. Steel mills were able to take advantage of lower global steel prices by importing cargoes from overseas to compensate for shortages of ore of higher quality. Thyssenkrupp, Germany's biggest steelmaker, announced with the IG Metall that it would cut or outsource 40 percent of its workforce, and reduce production capacity. Shipments will be reduced to 8,7 million to 9,0 million tons from 11.5 millions at present. China will likely stick to its current economic growth target for next year of around 5%. This is part of Beijing’s efforts to launch a new 5-year plan to overcome the effects of an extended property slump, weak demand from consumers, excess factory capacity and declines of infrastructure-led investments. Coke and coking coal were both up, while coking coal was down. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mostly down. The benchmarks for hot-rolled coil and stainless steel were both down, but wire rod was up 0.68% and rebar was unchanged.
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Shanghai copper reaches record high due to tight supply
Shanghai copper reached a record-high on Thursday. This was boosted by the sharp increase in London Metal Exchange cancellations, which signaled a tightening of supply outside of the United States. Also, bets increased that Federal Reserve rates would drop this month. As of 0240 GMT the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 2.45% to 91150 yuan (12,893.96) per kilogram, after reaching an all-time-high of 91400 yuan during the morning. The rally was triggered by the record-breaking high reached on Wednesday for LME three-month copper benchmark. London copper rose 0.08% to $11,497 per tonne on Thursday. LME data showed that on Wednesday, 50,725 tonnes of copper were cancelled in South Korea and Taiwan warehouses 0#MCUSTX, which brought the amount of copper on warrant in LME sheds down to its lowest level since July, at 105.275 tons. Analysts at Chinese broker Jinrui stated in a report that the sharp increase in LME warrants cancelled suggested that expectations for tightening of supply on markets outside of the United States were starting to materialise. Glencore cut back its copper production forecast for 2026 on Wednesday but still said that it expected to see a rise by 2035. Goldman Sachs has raised its average LME Copper Price Forecast for the First Half of 2026 from $10,415 to $10,710. The dollar fell on Thursday as a result of mediocre economic data that bolstered the argument for a Fed rate reduction next week. Tin prices have risen to their highest levels in over three and a half years. Shanghai tin rose 3.50% to 320,160 Yuan per ton after reaching its highest level since April 2022, when it was 323,700 Yuan. London tin fell 0.38% to $40,625 per ton after reaching $41,010 earlier. This was also the highest price since April 2022. Aluminium, zinc, and lead all rose in price. Nickel also increased by 0.22%. Aluminium was up by 0.26% in London. Zinc gained 0.10%, while lead and nickel both rose 0.15%. Thursday, December 4, DATA/EVENTS(GMT) 0930 S&P Global PMI: MSC Composite - Output Nov 1330 Initial US Jobless Clm 29, Nov, w/e (1 = 7.0692 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and Editing by Subhranshu, Sahu, and Lewis Jackson)
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Asia markets mixed; sentiment tepid with Fed on the horizon
The dollar fell to a five-week-low on Thursday while Asian stocks had a dull start to their trading session. Weaker-than-expected data from the economy confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates during its meeting next Monday. The Nikkei rose by 0.8% while MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.1%. This was due to declines in Korea, New Zealand, and Australia. S&P 500 futures are little changed as the momentum of U.S. stocks overnight has waned in Asia. The Russell 2000 index rose 1.9% on Wednesday, while the benchmark S&P 500 also gained ground. Gains were made after the U.S. private employment data showed their largest drop in over two-and-a half years. A separate survey by the Institute for Supply Management revealed that its measure of employment in the services sector contracted in November. The subindex of prices received fell to a 7-month low. Henry Russell, an economist at ANZ, said on a podcast that this move is in line with his view that recent supercore inflation will subside and pave the way for a resumption in disinflation by 2026. "We still believe that the Fed should continue to reduce interest rates in response to the downside risks of the labour market," he added, adding that the bank anticipates a cut of 25 basis points at the meeting next week and more easing next. Fed funds futures indicate an 89% implied probability that the U.S. Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting, which is scheduled for December 12. This compares to an 83.4% implied probability a week earlier. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, fell last by 0.4% to 98.878, its lowest level in nine consecutive sessions. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was last stable at 4.0749% after the Financial Times reported that bond investors had expressed concern to the U.S. Treasury about Kevin Hassett's potential to aggressively reduce interest rates to align himself with President Donald Trump. In Hong Kong, the Chinese yuan remained stable in offshore trading after reaching its highest level against the U.S. Dollar in over a year. The greenback fell to its lowest level against the renminbi in October 2024. The last time it traded was at 7.056 Yuan. The Australian dollar gained 0.1% following official data showing that Australian household expenditure surged the most in nearly two years in October. Meanwhile, the goods trade surplus of the country grew more than expected due to a rise in gold exports for the second consecutive month. The Japanese chip makers in the AI supply chains advanced after reports that Trump met with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to discuss export control, citing an informed source. Tokyo Electron rose 0.7%. The recent surge in precious metals continues. Silver was up 0.1% to $58.5415 an ounce. Gold was up 0.2% at $4,213.38. The metal had hit a new record high on Wednesday of $58.98. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter.
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Chevron will spend up to $ 19 billion in the next year on US and Guyana oil production
Chevron announced on Wednesday that its capital expenditures for 2026 would be between $18 and $19 billion. The oil major is focusing on investments in Guyana and production in the U.S. The range falls at the lower end of the previous guidance, which put annual investments between $18 billion to $21 billion until 2030. Last month, the second-largest U.S. producer of oil outlined a strategy to reduce costs, increase efficiency and boost returns to investors by the end decade. In a recent statement, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated that the 2026 capital program would focus on opportunities with the highest return while maintaining discipline and increasing efficiency. This will allow us to increase cash flow and earnings. Around $17 billion is expected to be spent upstream. Of that, approximately $9 billion will go to the United States. Chevron has said that it will spend $6 billion in American shale, and expects to produce 2 million barrels equivalent of oil per day. The offshore production budget will be around $7 billion, which includes projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, Guyana and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Spending on downstream will be around $1 billion. This is a slight decrease from this year. Chevron completed its $55 billion purchase of Hess last July. The main asset was a 30% stake on the Stabroek Block, a prolific oil field in Guyana. The deal included new assets within the Bakken Shale Formation in the U.S.
First Amendment lawsuit filed by fired employees against EPA
Six former Environmental Protection Agency workers filed a First Amendment lawsuit against EPA administrator Lee Zeldin on Wednesday for terminating their employment due to what they called the politicization science under the Trump Administration.
Employees were terminated earlier this year, after signing an open letter addressed to Zeldin in which they criticized the agency and accused it of putting public health at risk by allowing politics to dictate research.
Why is this important?
Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER), which represents the fired employees said that President Donald Trump's EPA has violated First Amendment free speech protections, and also put the public at risk by removing experienced workers from their environmental protection jobs.
The EPA put 139 employees on leave administrative in July, after they signed a dissenting letter. It said it had "zero tolerance" towards those who sabotage the government agenda.
Key Context
In early 2018, the Trump administration directed agencies to work together with Department of Government Efficiency, which was recently dissolved, in order to identify mass layoff targets as part of their restructuring plans. DOGE began a series of dramatic moves in Washington during the first months of President Trump's second tenure to shrink federal agencies and cut budgets, or redirect work to Trump priorities.
In July, the EPA announced that it would reduce its workforce by 23% at least and close its scientific research offices as part of President Obama's efforts to shrink the federal government.
KEY QUOTE
Daniel Rosenthal, a partner with James & Hoffman who represents both unions and government employees, said: "The agency must prove that employees committed misconduct, and that this misconduct interfered with the employee's job or another legitimate objective of the government." (Reporting and editing by Aurora Ellis; Valerie Volcovici)
(source: Reuters)