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OPEC+ is expected to maintain oil production policy for Q1 according to sources

OPEC+ is expected to maintain oil production policy for Q1 according to sources
OPEC+ is expected to maintain oil production policy for Q1 according to sources

Two delegates and a source with knowledge of OPEC+ meetings said that OPEC+ will likely leave oil production levels unchanged during its Sunday meeting and agree on a method to measure members' maximum capacity to produce.

Two delegates stated that the eight OPEC+ nations who have gradually increased output in 2025 will keep their policy of halting hikes in the 1st quarter of 2026.

OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, led by Russia and pumping about half the oil in the world, has been discussing production capacity figures for years, against which the members' targets are set.

Sources who spoke under condition of anonymity said that the full OPEC+ will likely agree to the capacity mechanism at a separate gathering on Sunday.

OPEC announced in May that this capacity assessment will be used as a reference for the 2027 baseline output.

OPEC, Saudi Arabia and Russian authorities didn't immediately respond to a comment request.

The two delegates stated that four online meetings are planned for Sunday, starting at 1300 GMT with OPEC Ministers alone. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will then meet, followed by all OPEC+ Ministers. Finally, the eight members of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will convene.

OPEC+ met in September to discuss the issue of capacity on a technical basis. Baseline discussions in the past have been fraught with tension as they determine how much each member will cut production. Angola left the group in 2024 due to a disagreement over its production target.

OPEC+ cut supplies for many years, until the eight members started to increase production in April to regain market share. The cutbacks peaked in march, when they reached 5.85 million barrels a day. This is almost 6% of the world's total production.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and the UAE have all raised their output targets from April to December by around 2.9 millions bpd. They also agreed on a first-quarter break at their last meeting.

The sources also said that OPEC+ ministers will not be making any changes to the group's production targets for 2026. These include a cut of 2 million bpd, which is shared by all members until the end next year. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith)

(source: Reuters)