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Portugal purchases power and gas company REN in order to protect strategic assets and influence investments
Portugal's Government said Wednesday that it?bought a share in the power and /gas grid operator REN?to safeguard its strategic assets amidst growing geopolitical uncertainties and?gain a greater influence over?key investment. Last month, the state agreed to purchase 13.7% of REN. This is a return to the company after 12 years when it left during Portugal's bailout. During this time, China's State Grid acquired a 25% stake, becoming its?largest investor. The Environment Minister Maria da Graca Carvalho stated that Portugal has maintained a "good 'dialogue and cooperatio" with the Chinese company. However, she said the decision was based on considerations such as sovereignty, national interest, security, and geostrategic. She told a committee of parliament that "whether it's this state-owned firm?or another one from another country, the constant geopolitical changes?we've seen in recent months cannot be ignored." She stated that in light of the growing geopolitical uncertainties, it is important to control REN’s strategic assets - the electricity and natural gas transmission networks, and the gas storage infrastructure - especially when ownership is outside the European Union. She said: "We have European and national laws that allow us to act, particularly in matters of security and sovereignty, as a preventative measure?against the?highly unpredictable geopolitical climate today." She added that the stake would increase the state's "influence 'from within'" investments aimed to expand REN's?grid of electricity, and speed up connections for new wind and solar projects. This, she said, would 'help lower electricity costs and boost 'the economy's competition. She said, "We have a long list?of major investments that are dependent on the availability and reliability of the grid for electricity in Portugal."
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US to help Kenya develop its critical mineral processing
A senior American official said on Wednesday that the United States would help Kenya develop an important minerals processing industry, in the context of a 'rivalry between China and America over access to vital minerals. Kenya is considering bids for the development of Mrima Hill, a coastal deposit that is estimated to contain rare earth minerals worth tens and billions of dollars, as well as niobium - a metal commonly used in aerospace manufacturing. Frank Garcia, assistant secretary of state for Africa at the American Chamber of Commerce in Kenya, said: "Critical Minerals are a priority for President (Donald Trump) Trump and Secretary of State Marco (Rubio). We are prepared to work with Kenya, as it becomes regional leader in this area." "We're ready to help you create a transparent mining sector that attracts legitimate business, respects local communities and secures global supply chains." U.S. U.S. U.S. International Development Finance Corporation supports a pipeline of African Rare Earth?projects, as Washington aims to reduce?dependence from top producer China. China dominates the global supply chains and has tightened its export controls over recent years. Garcia stated that "if we are serious about rare Earths minerals, energy, and a stronger America we do it together, not alone." William Ruto, Kenya's president, welcomed the U.S. assistance and said that local processing of minerals would help his government to create jobs. Ruto said at the same meeting that "in critical minerals we are accelerating responsible exploration and development" of rare-earth element, titanium, graphite and lithium. In?July, Critical Metals Corp. and RareX.com.au announced that they were shortlisted for the right to develop Mrima Hill. Kenya's government is yet to publish a list of shortlisted companies. Ruto said in June that Kenya was close to completing a crucial minerals deal with the U.S. On Wednesday, neither side gave an update on the deal. Garcia stated that the United States favored a mining development model which includes local processing in producing countries and value addition. He said that some of his competitors were efficient in one area: they could extract minerals from the ground and whisk them off to offshore locations, where they would capture all the value added far from the lands the minerals came from. China has denied the accusations made by some governments and advocacy organizations about its export of raw minerals to be processed elsewhere.
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Brazil releases $1.3 billion in fuel subsidies
According to a 'executive order' signed by President Luiz Inacio Lula on Wednesday when the gasoline subsidy was due to expire, the Brazilian government allocated an extra 6.6 billion reais ($1.3 billion) to fuel subsidies. The order allocates 5.6 billion reais for subsidizing diesel fuels used on roads, and the remaining 998 millions reais are allocated to subsidize oil-based fuels production and import. Lula's government has crafted a series of fuel-related measures, as part of a broader relief plan set up since the beginning of?the U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran. Leftist leader tries to reduce the impact on domestic consumers of rising global oil prices ahead of October's election when he seeks another four-year mandate. The previous gasoline subsidy, which was extended in August, will expire Wednesday. The?government eliminated part of the diesel subsidy in June when oil prices fell, but this external relief was only temporary, and the conflict continues. Brent crude futures surpassed $100 per barrel for the first since July 24. This was a six-week record high as the Middle East escalated, raising concerns about disruptions in global oil supply.
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Middle East tensions drive oil over $100, Wall Street drops
Brent crude prices soared to $100 per barrel on Wednesday, and Wall Street opened lower as the escalating conflict engulfing the Middle East fueled fears?about? energy-driven inflation in advance of several important central bank decisions. Brent crude futures climbed as high as 3%, reaching a session-high of $100.95. This was the first time that Brent crude had breached the symbol since July 24. After Iran claimed it fired missiles at an American base in Jordan, and both sides claimed they attacked vessels, oil supply from the region became a concern. Brent crude prices rose by 2.83% at the start of U.S. trade, and were priced at $100.70 per barrel. The stock markets around the world were under pressure due to the recent surge in energy costs, which prompted concerns that central banks would tighten monetary policy for longer if inflation continues to rise. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.75% during early trading. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was down by 0.30% while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.35%. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index?fell 1.2% while MSCI's global stock index fell 3.39 points or 0.29%. The euro edged up ahead of Thursday's policy announcement by the European Central Bank. Markets were expecting an increase amid inflationary pressures caused by the Iran War. The currency reached a new high of $1.16493, which is more than a week old. As traders redeemed short positions, the yen reached a 'nearly 7-month high' against the dollar on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan is expected to increase rates faster and there could be a rush of Japanese capital repatriated. Japan and the Eurozone are both energy importers. The dollar index fell by 0.13%, to 98.65, measuring the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies. U.S. INFLATION TESTS The benchmark yield for global borrowing costs is the 10-year U.S. Treasury. It traded at 4,794%. Last week, it reached a high of nearly three years at 4.818% as traders ramped up expectations of tighter monetary policies. The U.S. consumer and producer price reports that will be released this week are a test of these bets. Policymakers are looking for more evidence that inflation is continuing to cool. In the latest survey, 70% of economists expect that the Federal Reserve will keep rates the same at its rate-setting meeting on Tuesday. However, this is lower than the 90% of economists who expected rates to remain the same in August. Matthew Ryan, the Head of Market Strategy for global financial services company?Ebury, said: "Financial market participants are genuinely divided on whether or not the FOMC will increase rates at its September meeting next week, a state of 'uncertainty that is unusually close to a deadline. The yen gained around 0.4%, reaching 153.350 to the dollar. It is now back at its previous high of 152.89. The yen had risen by around 4% in the last five days, with BOJ officials' hawkish comments ostensibly triggering a move which?then snowballed when breaks of key levels led to additional buying. Sterling edged up 0.14%. The Bank of England will announce its latest decision on Thursday of the following week. Economists predict that the key rate for the rest of the year will remain unchanged. Gold rose 1.5% to $4,418 per ounce.
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Nepal uses drones to provide flood relief
After last month's floods, Nepalese army has turned to drones to provide relief to the displaced. Since a Himalayan iceberg broke off at the Nepal-China boundary in late August, more than 5,000 people have been confirmed missing and dead in Nepal. "Most our helicopters are busy with rescue operations." Drones are the only way to deliver food, medicine, fuel and other 'essentials'. He said drones can be used to transport up to 60 kg (132 lbs), and are capable of traveling up to 4 km (2 miles). They have already made a difference for communities that desperately need aid. A fleet of four DJI FlyCart100 drones donated by China, as part of an aid package, allows the army to make around 10-16 deliveries per day. Drones are also used to move flood victims' bodies in some areas. They have also played a major role in search and rescue missions. We've been moving back and forth in the early morning. It is a bit hectic because we have to get this done right away," said Milan Pandey, a drone operator at Airlift Technology. Pandey stated that "Nepal's geography and terrain would make drones much faster, cheaper, and more efficient."
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As a wave of US-Iran strikes exposes the dwindling safety network, oil prices surpass $100
The price of oil topped $100 per barrel for the first six-week period on Wednesday, as an escalation of fighting between U.S. forces and 'Iranian forces raised concerns about the supply coming from the region. This also heightened fears over inflationary pressures and increased energy costs. Brent, the global benchmark for oil, has increased by 25 percent since early last week as hope fades of a permanent solution to the six-month old U.S./Iran conflict. This week, the rally intensified after Iran-backed Houthi attacked Saudi energy installations and set them ablaze. The increased risk of disruptions spreading across the Gulf region was heightened by the attacks. The break of oil above $100 indicates that global markets are becoming more vulnerable following months of losses in supply due to disruptions of oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz, and inventory reductions. Oil broker PVM's Tamas Varga said that oil investors are expressing unambiguously their views on the impact of this latest escalation. They are voting with their dollars,?and that vote strongly indicates, that until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and oil flows again unhindered, the supply will not align with the demand in the near future. Brent futures are still far from the $126 mark that was reached earlier in this conflict. However, sustained prices above $100 per barrel would have a significant impact on energy markets. They could increase transport and manufacturing costs and reignite inflation fears, as well as keep interest rates high for longer. OIL STOCKS are low The war in Iran has led to a six-month reduction in Middle East oil exports, which has helped reduce the oil stock of some major consumers. The United States also drained heavily from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It is now at its lowest level since 1982. After years of releases from former President Joe Biden, and President Donald Trump to cushion consumers from high fuel costs, the reserve now contains 289.7 millions barrels. High gas prices pose a threat to Trump's Republican Party. The party will be fighting for a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress at the midterm elections this November. For Labor Day, the national average gas price was predicted to be $4.03 per gallon. Analysts claim that $4 per gallon will be a major issue for consumers. International Energy Agency (IEA), the West's energy watchdog announced in March that 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves had been released. The agency also stated that the global economy still has "substantial stocks". Around three quarters have already been released. According to the IEA, total global oil reserves, including all types, such as commercial stock, U.S. stocks and SPR, Chinese oils, and stocks on the water, appear fairly secure. Yet, many of these are in transit, pledged to buyers or held by countries like China that do not provide much information on their available reserves. OIL FLOWS FROM THE MIDDLE ESTATE STILL DISRUPTED Brent reached $126 per barrel in April. Prices are still below that peak. The return of oil prices above triple-digit levels poses a threat to a market that has little margin for error. Reduced inventories and limited spare capacities leave the supply vulnerable to further disruptions. According to Vortexa's estimates, the 'Iran war' has caused oil exports to be missing by about?10m barrels per day or 10% of global oil demand. The IEA predicted that global oil production would drop by?4.3m bpd or 4% this year, despite some producers, including the United States and Canada. Analysts say that with emergency stocks depleted, and millions of barrels per day already off-line, the market is less able to absorb disruptions now than at the beginning of the war. "I believe the market is trying treat this increase in energy prices like a one-off. It's not. This is structural. It is not going to disappear, and I would say that it's a part of what i would call a security premium. It's only going grow bigger", said Jeffrey Currie.
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Brazil targets COP31 agreement to target China as buyer of Carbon Credits
Brazil will use a 'high-level visit' to China next Monday to 'assess if Beijing could become a purchaser of Brazilian carbon credits, and to advance the talks towards a bilateral market agreement that officials hope they can announce at the COP31 climate summit in Turkey this November. Discussions between top climate officials and carbon-market representatives from both countries will be held in conjunction with meetings at Wuhan, China from September 14 to 18 where a coalition of Brazil-China and EU carbon market jurisdictions that covers roughly 42% global emissions are set to approve a?plan of work aimed at gradually integrating and aligning trading systems. Reis said that the trip to China would also be a test to see if the Asian nation could "become an ITMO buyer, or a buyer for internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs), a type carbon credit which counts towards countries' official emissions under the Paris Agreement. Reis stated that "if this?happens then Brazil should be the first country to offer high integrity credits." China is the only country that has signed an official agreement to trade in?ITMOs. It is also the largest emissions trading system in the world. OFFICIALS ANALYZE ACCELERATING INTERNATIONAL TRADE Carbon credits in Brazil are currently only traded on voluntary markets where companies can purchase credits to meet their own emission reduction goals. Brazil, under the legislation passed in 2024 is now preparing its own regulated market for carbon credits, where companies can buy them to reach their official targets of decarbonization. This will allow Brazil to trade internationally via ITMOs. Reis stated that the plan is to set up a system for verifying credits in international trades by 2031-2035. The government is now considering industry requests for an earlier timeline. She said, "It's on the table." "Those who are evaluating the submissions think that possibility is viable." Brazil's carbon credits producers are closely watching the issue, eager to tap into international compliance markets. COALITION MOVES OUT OF VISION AND INTO IMPLEMENTATION Officials from Brazil, China, and the European Union will also approve a plan of work for the Carbon-Market?Coalition, which was launched earlier this month to improve compatibility between markets. According to Brazilian officials, the coalition has already 11 members. It is looking for additional participants from developing countries. Ana?Paula Cavalcante is Brazil's assistant secretary for carbon market regulation and methods. She added that "Both the alliance and the closer relationship between China and Brazil can help scale-up carbon markets and unlock investments flows for Brazil, as it seeks reindustrialization around new technologies."
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IAEA board draws line under previous Syrian nuclear activities
Board of Governors of the U.N. Nuclear Watchdog, a 35-nation group of nations, passed a resolution Wednesday that drew a line under 'Syria’s secret nuclear activities' during the Assad regime. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) demanded that Syria disclose its nuclear activities after?Israel bombed the site in eastern Deir al-Zor province in 2007. In 2011, the IAEA board reported that Syria had violated its obligations to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons. This was then forwarded to the U.N. Security Council. The IAEA and Syria have pledged to cooperate after the 2024?overthrow Bashar al Assad. In a confidential report sent to member states last week, which was seen by, the IAEA stated that it had answered all of its questions regarding the issues initially reported to the board. The resolution passed on Tuesday said Syria no longer did not comply with its obligations. The resolution text submitted by Egypt, Jordan Morocco and Saudi Arabia stated that "(the board) welcomes transparency?and cooperation from the Syrian Arab Republic. It commends its actions taken to resolve its non-compliance." Diplomats said that the resolution was passed by consensus, which means no one objected. IAEA's report confirms that it is "very likely" that the bombed site contained a nuclear reactor and said the fuel was manufactured in Syria. IAEA discovered around 73 metric tons of natural uranium in Syria, mostly in the form of fuel rods. The IAEA is overseeing the material, and Syria says it will remain in Syria.
Data shows that despite the 'dark crossings,' one third of Gulf Oil is still missing.
* The global shortage of uranium has been eased by clandestine shipments
Oil prices have risen because of the uncertainty over oil volumes
* Difference between peak daily flows and the average
Dmitry Zhdannikov & Anushree Mukerjee
LONDON, September?9, - Estimates of Middle Eastern oil flows have been wildly varying since tankers started "dark crossings", meaning that they sail without transponder signals, to avoid Iranian attacks.
The clandestine "shipments" have greatly increased supplies while the incertitude over their scope has added to the premium on international oil prices.
Last week, U.S. Diesel prices reached a record high.
Last week, the U.S. Energy Secretary said that shipments had almost returned to their previous levels before U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in February?launched an energy war which has severely disrupted flows.
The data analysed by indicates that the industry consensus is around two-thirds pre-war volume.
This includes estimates of the amount of oil shipped by ships sailing without their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders as part of what ship trackers and analysts have called "the world's biggest clandestine operation", organised with U.S. Military support.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimated in a note dated September 2, that the total Gulf oil exports including "dark crosses" were between 15 and 16 million barrels of oil per day. This is about two thirds of pre-war levels.
The London-based analytical company Vortexa estimated that total oil exports in the Gulf region were 15 million barrels per day (bpd) in August. This is still 10 million barrels below pre-war levels.
The company reported that the crude and refined product volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz were approximately 8 million bpd on a moving average basis of seven days.
Pamela Munger, analyst at Vortexa, said that "daily transits fluctuate with significant spikes and troughs."
U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright clarified the 17 to 18 million barrels number on Fox?News Sunday, saying that the 18 million bpd figure was for a 24-hour period of last week.
Wright said that the running average of all "waterborne" routes was 9 million bpd. This is closer to the industry consensus.
Analysts have also found a discrepancy in the daily peak flows and sustained exports.
Gulf crude exports were as high as 14 million bpd in some days of early September. This includes secret tanker flows, Saudi Red Sea exports, and exports from the Gulf that bypassed the Strait of Hormuz.
Exports can be much lower on some days depending on the intensity and frequency of Iran's attacks on tankers.
Covert shipments are now a regular occurrence and allow crude oil from Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar to reach global markets.
Calculations based on an average oil price per barrel of $80 and a conservative assumption that 6 million barrels or six large tanks were shipped each day for the past 90 days found that dark shipments totaled at least 500 millions barrels from June to August. This would amount to at least $40 billion.
(source: Reuters)